Arguments
Recent Comments
Prev 1228 1229 1230 1231 1232 1233 1234 1235 1236 1237 1238 1239 1240 1241 1242 1243 Next
Comments 61751 to 61800:
-
Pete Dunkelberg at 12:04 PM on 9 March 2012We've been through climate changes before
This post has good features as Doug says. But the paleontology paragraph provokes some quibbles: The age of dinosaurs started sometime in the Triassic. http://www.squidoo.com/dinosaur-timeline Size of cretaceous mammals - not alway so small: http://www.webpages.uidaho.edu/~jacks/hu05.pdf "The entire body of IVPP V14155 is more than one metre in length (skull, 160 mm; trunk, 522 mm; preserved tail, 364 mm), comparable to that of a large Tasmanian devil12." toward the end of the cretaceous some other mammals were near this size - i can't recall their names and I think their lineages became extinct. When did mammals "start to evolve" if one can use that phrase? One might say with the first synapsids, well before the Age of Dinosaurs. Oxygen inthe early atmosphere: http://www.learner.org/courses/envsci/unit/text.php?unit=1&secNum=6 came up to around 1% a few hundred k years of the start of the "great oxygen event" Was the climate suitable for human survival in the mesozoic? Sure, near the poles when the tropics were too warm. -
Philippe Chantreau at 11:52 AM on 9 March 2012Interactive mythbusting in Lane Cove
Sceptical Wombat probably makes a good point. I was recently involved in an exchange (not climate related) in which someone was making an argument from authority. I pointed to a very simple situation that obviously proved the argument did not hold. The same person replied right back with the correct explanation for that situation, which summarized as being the exact opposite of the argument from authority made immediately before. Yet when I tried to have the person acknowledge that he had just made 2 completely opposed arguments that were incompatible, he could never get to admit it openly. Not an unusual attitude. -
Doug Hutcheson at 11:34 AM on 9 March 2012We've been through climate changes before
The global climate and human evolution graphic is an excellent teaching tool. The whole post is clear, uncluttered and easy to digest. Thank you, Sarah. -
KR at 11:15 AM on 9 March 2012Lindzen's Junk Science
According to Gavin Schmidt regarding : "Note that I have received a note from Lindzen apologising for the error (and I have passed it along to the people involved in GISTEMP). - gavin" My compliments to Dr. Lindzen for this - not everyone is willing to acknowledge an error. -
gdpbull at 10:50 AM on 9 March 2012Lindzen's London Illusions
How do we know atmospheric aerosol concentrations and their influence on the global temperatures in the more distant past, say between 1880 and 1940? -
Dick Veldkamp at 10:18 AM on 9 March 2012Lindzen's Junk Science
#7 #8 #9 Thanks for clearing this up guys. I appreciate it. -
Lloyd Flack at 10:12 AM on 9 March 2012We've been through climate changes before
I don't think it is chance that agriculture and civilization developed in the first interglacial since the development of human language. There is indirect evidence of that occuring about 80,000 years ago. I would be hard to develop civilization during a glacial though once developed it could survive. -
KR at 10:00 AM on 9 March 2012Interactive mythbusting in Lane Cove
Perhaps, rather than "Has anyone changed their minds?", a better question might be "Has anyone heard something interesting and new on the topic?" Less confrontational, and opens up the possibility of discussing why those items are interesting. -
skywatcher at 09:58 AM on 9 March 2012A Sunburnt Country
It's interesting that one extreme weather thread which Norman has not posted a single comment is this one, discussing Hansen et al 2011. This quantifies the increase in extreme heat events around the world in a manner that is uncomplicated by improvements in observational networks of earthquakes, by the vagiaries of tornado formation which may or may not be increased by global warming (and so is a red herring), or by the body count of individual large disasters (does the Boxing Day earthquake/tsunami add 250,000 to the toll of 2000-2009?). If extremes are not on the rise, how does Norman account for the increase in extremes documented by Hansen et al (2011). As Victoria (and other parts of east Australia) is yet again hit by severe flooding, while there are still remembrances of Black Saturday, I am reminded over breakfast every morning of the enhancement of the hydrological cycle. -
Sceptical Wombat at 09:52 AM on 9 March 2012Interactive mythbusting in Lane Cove
It is a mistake to put people into a corner where they have a choice of admitting that they were wrong or clinging to their old belief. Some may change their minds without admitting it that is good. Alternatively you may have been preaching to the choir. In the latter case we should hope that the choir sings a bit more loudly in future. -
Lloyd Flack at 09:50 AM on 9 March 2012Interactive mythbusting in Lane Cove
I think the reason why you didn't have many people changing minds was that the audience was mostly composed of people who believed it was happening because they trusted the scientists and it was not a threat to their ideology. So they probably wanted more detail about what was happening and what they could do. I was talking to the bloke in the gray shirt in the front row. He did not seem like a denialist though I didn't get much detail on his opinions. I suspect he just didn't want to play along. I'm there in the brown shirt in the front row. I thought it was a pity that we didn't deal with the "It's not warming." myth but the encouraging thing is that it does not seem to have got anywhere near as much circulation as the others. Few in the audience had heard it, at least in the "Global warming has stopped." form. As a statistician I could have defended Foster and Ramsdorf's paper from criticism. -
KR at 09:42 AM on 9 March 2012A Sunburnt Country
Readers - WRT Norman's issues with the Munich Re data, I believe Tom Curtis covered the issues (and objections) quite well in an earlier thread. Norman's interpretation is not supportable. -
KR at 09:23 AM on 9 March 2012A Sunburnt Country
Norman - The USGS, source of those numbers, states that: "We continue to be asked by many people throughout the world if earthquakes are on the increase. Although it may seem that we are having more earthquakes, earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or greater have remained fairly constant. A partial explanation may lie in the fact that in the last twenty years, we have definitely had an increase in the number of earthquakes we have been able to locate each year." (emphasis added) I suspect they have a better view of their data than you do. You are, quite frankly, wrong. "Do you see what I am saying?" - Yes, I do. You are saying that you disagree with USGS about their earthquake data, that you feel a 25% increase in tornadoes over the last 30 years is irrelevant, and that you (once again) don't agree with the notion that Munich Re has observed a notable increase in catastrophic, expensive climatic events over similar geophysical events. Which you've attempted to argue without statistics, with bad sources, and with data interpretations contradicted by the sources of those data. None of what you are saying is terribly convincing. Again. And you have not acknowledged any of these issues that various posters have pointed out, which I consider extremely poor form. Readers: I would suggest taking viewing the various Extreme Weather threads, where Norman has been (repeatedly) pointed to his errors in regards to extreme weather. ---------- Back to the thread: Glenn Tamblyn, a very evocative post. Thank you. I would love to visit your country at some point. -
Piet R. Zijlstra at 09:06 AM on 9 March 2012Greenhouse Effect Basics: Warm Earth, Cold Atmosphere
Tom Curtis and participants on this tread: I studied the last six months climate change and then had a holiday leave. This tread was one of the first I worked through to restart my study. And indeed a very effective one! Thanks for all your effort and time. Many thanks to the SkS-team -
yocta at 08:56 AM on 9 March 2012Interactive mythbusting in Lane Cove
Well done :) Perhaps if the audience instead had a card to fill out anonymously with something like 'yes', 'mo' 'maybe' to tick and put in a box on the way out could have helped avoid saving face IMHO -
Norman at 08:49 AM on 9 March 2012A Sunburnt Country
KR @ 40 Please look at my post at 22. The USGS does list all the earthquakes of 6+ magnitude. I added the numbers and gave decade averages for earthquakes/year. If you look at the data yourself you can see clearly that the large earthquake number has increasesd in the short run (1980-2012). The USGS may be making a reference to Earthquakes from early decades, maybe from 1900 to 2012 there is no increase. That would not change the point I am making. The Munich Re Chart posted in the OT starts at 1980. The number of large (6+ magnitude earthquakes) has indeed increased in number since the 1980's from the USGS site itself (I suggest you do the math yourself, even graph the numbers on and Excel sheet and have it draw a trend line). Also the number of deaths has drastically gone up from earthquakes since the 1980's. Earthquake numbers are critical to the discussion as they are used (assumed to be relatively flat which is not the case) to prove that population growth and property values are not the reason Munich Re shows increasing catastrophes caused by Climate and weather related effects. My point is that large (prone to cause damage if near population centers and unless the greater number of quakes in the 2000 decade just all happened to occur outside the bounds of civilization as compared to 1980 decade or even the 1990 decade, but the number of deaths does not support this conclusion as they have increased at a dramatic rate). If whatever system Munich Re is using to determine a catastrophe can't pick up a noticeable increase in large earthquake number, it should be evident that this system is not valid in determining event numbers but I keep seeing the same graph used as evidence of increasing bad weather related events. If it can't match earthquake number to reality (provided by the USGS) why would I believe it is a valid portrayal of increasing bad climate or weather related phenomena. Also the strong tornado graph I linked to in Post 33 (some argue it does not show a decline in the most destructive tornados, even if not, it certainly does not show any increase yet Munich Re shows an increase in natural catastrophes from storms). Smaller tornados are not very destructive. Here "An F0 or EF0 tornado, the weakest category, damages trees, but not substantial structures. An F5 or EF5 tornado, the strongest category, rips buildings off their foundations and can deform large skyscrapers. The similar TORRO scale ranges from a T0 for extremely weak tornadoes to T11 for the most powerful known tornadoes." source. So does Munich Re consider damage to trees to be a catastrophe? Maybe the definition of the word is too loose I would think it is of considerable damage, type caused by flood, hurricane, large tornado, earthquake. Do you see what I am saying? -
KR at 08:09 AM on 9 March 2012A Sunburnt Country
Norman - You are once again using rather poor sources. The link you provided also includes the line "Speaking of the signs that will happen, leading to his return to judge the peoples of earth (at the end of the age), Jesus is quoted as saying ‘in various places there will be famines and earthquakes‘..." On the other hand, the USGS states here and here that "As more and more seismographs are installed in the world, more earthquakes can be and have been located. However, the number of large earthquakes (magnitude 6.0 and greater) has stayed relatively constant" (emphasis added). Apocalyptic blogs on one hand - USGS on the other? I would opine that the US Geological Service has more accurate data. And that there has been no increasing trend in numbers of large earthquakes. You found a source that agree with your hypothesis - but did not quality check your source. -
OPatrick at 08:05 AM on 9 March 2012Interactive mythbusting in Lane Cove
Paul Magnus: "That escalator one is a gem and is undeniable!" Ha! Undeniable! Was that naivety or caustic humour? -
WheelsOC at 07:56 AM on 9 March 2012Lindzen's Junk Science
I'd like to clarify that it was Hank Roberts who pointed out the early origin for the graph in comments at the original RC post. I just brought his discovery to the discussion in the comments over here. I haven't watched Lindzen's presentation or read his slides, so I don't know how he handled Hayden's argument or attributed the graph. -
Paul Magnus at 07:31 AM on 9 March 2012Interactive mythbusting in Lane Cove
Great forum. On review, it would be very good to get simply constructed graphics like the escalator for some of the essential topics. That escalator one is a gem and is undeniable! -
OPatrick at 07:30 AM on 9 March 2012Interactive mythbusting in Lane Cove
On a different tack, I like the idea of leftover-mastercheffing. I've been thinking for a while that there's a place for 'real-life masterchef', where contestants are faced with a fridge full of half finished jars and bottles, a few wilted vegetables and some unidentifiable green fur. -
Norman at 07:27 AM on 9 March 2012A Sunburnt Country
muoncounter @ 36 Here is one for you Graph and data on increase in earthquakes both large and small. DATES FROM & TO PERIOD NO. EARTHQUAKES (Mag. > 6.99) --------------------------- ----------- ------------------------------ 1863 to 1900 incl 38 yrs 12 1901 to 1938 incl 38 yrs 53 Reference list 1901 to 1938 1939 to 1976 incl 38 yrs 71 Reference list 1939 to 1976 1977 to 2014 incl * 38 yrs 164 (to Mar. 2011) predict >190 in total. Reference list 1977 to date -
Rob Honeycutt at 06:58 AM on 9 March 2012A Sunburnt Country
Norman... At comment 28 you state, "You know the severe tornado (F3 to F5 scale)number has been trending down over the years in the US..." But the NOAA data you cite clearly states that, "The bar chart below [which you cite] indicates there has been little trend in the frequency of the strongest tornadoes over the past 55 years." -
Dikran Marsupial at 06:44 AM on 9 March 2012The Independence of Global Warming on Residence Time of CO2
@Sascha there is a pretty good correlation between the annual increase in atmospheric CO2 and temperature, probably because ENSO affects both temperature and the carbon cycle (I don't know off-hand whether it is because of the change in ocean temperatures in the Pacific directly, or because it affects CO2 uptake by terrestrial biosphere in the Western Americas, or both). This correllation has caused some to suggest that the rise in CO2 is driven by temperature, e.g. Roy Spencer (it is ironic that he plots a graph very similar to the one in my article, but fails to appreciate the key issue, which is that even taking the variation into account, the natural environment is always a net sink). However, taking the difference between this years CO2 and last years to get the annual rise totally eliminates the linear trend, so the correlation only really tells you about the year to year variability, but tells you nothing about the long term trend. So in short, you are seeing a genuine correlation between temperature and CO2, but the correlation is most noticeable in the variability, and a long term rising trend in temperatures is exactly what you would expect if CO2 levels are rising. HTH -
JMurphy at 06:34 AM on 9 March 2012It's not bad
mohyla103, as you were the one who made the original accusations, i.e. : misleading claims that make me skeptical of AGW reporting accuracy in general; Glaciers and annual snowfall are quite different things but Barnett seems to ignore the difference.; After checking the three sources for these figures, I find this claim to be very misleading!; and But I hope you'll agree, that Barnett's paper is misleading and a misrepresentation of data., then it is incumbent on you to back up those accusations by quoting the relevant actual figures to show where they have been misused. So far, you have been unable to because, as you later admitted : I didn't read the full paper of any of those three as I don't have free access to them., and you tried to justify this by claiming : The figures are already present in the abstracts though, so I would still consider my statement valid.. However, as you have already admitted with regard to the Singh & Bengtsson paper : How big is the fraction from glaciers? If 5/6 of summer runoff comes from glaciers (that seems pretty generous, but without further evidence I admit it's possible) then Barnett would still be OK using a figure of 50%, but any less and Barnett's figure wouldn't be accurate. Without searching the full text of the paper for a percentage for glacier melt specifically, we have no way of proving or disproving this. Considering his sloppy use of the other 2 sources, I don't have much confidence in his referencing of this source either.. So, you don't know what the actual relevant percentage is but you still feel justified in making your original accusation anyway, because of your reading of the other two abstracts. I'm sorry but that is not the sign of someone who wants to discover the truth, but someone who has already made their mind up and will not change it, no matter what. How can anyone confidently make the accusations you have without first checking whether there was at least some justification in what you are claiming ? This is why, when you finally come out with : However, I'll take your lack of comment on the other 2 sources as agreement that Barnett's misrepresented the data in saying that "melting glaciers provide....50-60% of the flow" in these rivers. It is not melting glaciers alone, but the combination of melting glaciers and melting snowpack., I have to say 'What is the point ?' It would appear that you are not here to discuss, but only to make baseless accusations and to stick to your beliefs come what may. I have read exactly the same abstracts as you have but I know that only reading the full papers will give the answers to any queries you might have. I also have confidence that those who have produced all the papers referred to did so using figures that have been checked and confirmed by others. Until you have proof otherwise, I suggest you withdraw your accusations. -
Pete Wirfs at 06:18 AM on 9 March 2012Interactive mythbusting in Lane Cove
I suspect that anyone who is entrenched ideologically to "believe" one side or the other will never change their minds. There were people that believed the horse and buggy was a better form of transportation than the automobile that were never convinced, but they eventually died. I also suspect that even in these types of well thought out presentations, the very fact that it repeats myths for the purpose of debunking also has an unintended consequence of reinforcing the myths for those that believe in them. (See? She tried to debunk it but I don't believe her argument! Ha!) I have no answer for how our society can convince the deniers. As in the case of the horse and buggy, some times you just have to wait for them to disappear. I admit I am personally entrenched in the ideological belief that what the majority of our climate scientists says is true. Since I am not a scientist myself, I must choose to believe one way or the other based upon information that others have written. -
scaddenp at 06:07 AM on 9 March 2012A Sunburnt Country
Andy, that link does not lead to such a paper. -
Sascha Tavere at 05:50 AM on 9 March 2012The Independence of Global Warming on Residence Time of CO2
@ Dikran Marsupial If I look at the RSS AMSU temperature series next to the Mauna Loa CO2 emmission series (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/), I have the impression there is some correlation. I searches for a lag-time for a CO2 effect and didn't find it. Ofcourse the commulative effect is the most important but am I seeing spooks in this more immediatebut perhaps illusionay correlation? -
muoncounter at 05:30 AM on 9 March 2012A Sunburnt Country
Norman#34: "the current increase in strong earthquake number?" Is this a documented increase or just a case of observation bias? From the USGS: 99 year average number of mag > 6: 150 2007: 196 2008: 180 2009: 161 2010: 175 2011: 205 Doesn't look like much of a trend, especially when the standard deviation is on the order of +/-35. And pre-1957, there weren't that many seismograph stations around the world, so that century average of 150 is biased low. Some will say that there is no evidence of the lack of an increase; others that there is no evidence of there not being a pause in the increase. Others will no doubt claim the USGS is just inflating the number of earthquakes just to gain more funding. Either way that has little to do with the fact that this is yet another 'extreme weather is on the increase thread.' -
funglestrumpet at 05:29 AM on 9 March 2012Lindzen's Junk Science
Albatros @ 2 Hanson has been giving a talk at TED2012 and it is well worth watching, especially by those who are still in doubt about Climate Change. He not only talks from the heart, but as we on this side of the fence are fully aware, he actually knows what he is talking about. Perhaps a better description would be that he is the exact opposite of Monckton. -
KR at 05:23 AM on 9 March 2012A Sunburnt Country
Norman - "...how come the Munich Re chart does not reflect an increase in the number of 6+ magnitude earthquakes..." You've already been answered. As Glenn Tamblyn noted to you, the Munich Re data shows catastrophes as they have defined - and any large earthquake will qualify. Regarding tornadoes - NOAA reports an average of ~950/year from 1970-1990, ~1200/year from 1990-now. That's a trend. The 30-40/year EF3-EF5 represent a tiny portion with high variability, and quite frankly I don't think strong conclusions can be drawn from the existing data on those. You are quibbling about (a) data the Munich Re charts didn't claim to show, data not relevant to the point of the OP, and (b) about extremely small numbers for high-end tornadoes against a large trend in total tornado numbers. -
pvincell at 05:19 AM on 9 March 2012Lindzen's Junk Science
Ah, thanks for clarifying. Either way, if it were me, I would issue a retraction, even if it were a trivial issue (which this is not, of course). Thanks for keeping us educators informed, Skeptical Science folks. -
DSL at 04:52 AM on 9 March 2012Interactive mythbusting in Lane Cove
I also suspect that it might be better not to ask about "changing minds." Keep it in the realm of ideas, and don't ask people to critique their ability to learn. You might do a pre-test/post-test, but delay the post-test for about six months. Let the pudding cook for a while. -
Norman at 04:52 AM on 9 March 2012A Sunburnt Country
KR @ 32 If this is a useful tool, how come the Munich Re chart does not reflect an increase in the number of 6+ magnitude earthquakes. I am pointing out it does not reflect reality of event numbers. How then can you use this graph as evidence that climate is getting worse when it does not accurately portray what is going on in the geophysical realm of the current increase in strong earthquake number? -
Norman at 04:49 AM on 9 March 2012A Sunburnt Country
John Hartz @30 Here is a NOAA Graph of F3 to F5 tornadoes.
source.
Moderator Response: [JH} Exactly, how did you derive a trend from this graphic? What statisitical methods did you employ? [RH] Fixed image width. -
DSL at 04:44 AM on 9 March 2012Interactive mythbusting in Lane Cove
The fear of being wrong publicly (and the humiliation that we've been trained to think naturally goes with it) keeps most people from presenting their beliefs and the sources of those beliefs. Having people talk with each other in small groups as peers (within the context) first is a good idea. It allows people to defuse the public spectacle, to look at each other as humans and recognize that the event is a co-learning experience rather than a banking-model experience. Of course, all it takes to ruin such an excellent social situation is one or two crackpot ideologues who have access to the Absolute Truth and respond with terminal intent to any challenge or question. Many people--even those who feed themselves from the ideological trough--probably suspect that there's something to the science. It is, after all, very hard to completely toss aside that whole epistemological project. Working with suspicions is better than working with Absolute Truths, and pure lecture tends to come off as Absolute Truth too often (and, in the classroom, often quite unintentionally). Bring out the suspicions in a comfortable, safe, and friendly environment, and then bring forth the science, very carefully and one key chunk at a time. New understandings, like eggs, must be tempered before they are added to a hot mix (and AGW is certainly a hot mix). Small, un-shiny, local events like this need to occur all over the place--in the sticks, the burbs, and the cities. I think I'll do something like this over the summer, if my local experts aren't off in woods doing research. Maybe there should be a SkS Local Outreach team--a mod-accessible listing of people who would be willing to travel up to 50 miles or so to put on a workshop/discussion. Room and board provided by the requester. -
Composer99 at 04:36 AM on 9 March 2012Interactive mythbusting in Lane Cove
I suspect that it is easier to publically agree that a climate science myth has been satisfactorily busted without also publically admitting that one's mind has been changed about climate science (if indeed many minds required changing), even if the mythbusting will eventually result in changing of mind. The former agreement does not entail loss of face; the latter admission does - IMO of course, since I am ignorant of the literature on the topic. -
dana1981 at 04:28 AM on 9 March 2012Lindzen's Junk Science
pvincell - correct, except that it appears to be Howard Hayden who made this error, and Lindzen simply used Hayden's plot without verifying its accuracy (see the green box at the top of the post). It's certainly possible that Hayden simply clicked the wrong data set in one instance, but Lindzen should have known better than to uncritically accept a plot posted on Junk Science (or wherever he got it) which accuses other scientists of data manipulation without verifying its accuracy. -
Martin at 04:18 AM on 9 March 2012Interactive mythbusting in Lane Cove
Perhaps next time you should ask right at the beginning how many believe that at least one of these skeptic statements has merit? Of course, there might be quite a number of undecided people who simply believe that the science isn't settled. Anway, it sounds like you enjoyed yourself. -
Sapient Fridge at 03:52 AM on 9 March 2012Interactive mythbusting in Lane Cove
Admitting that you were wrong and have changed your mind is hard, especially in public. I wonder how many people silently change their minds and just change their stance next time the issue comes up? -
pvincell at 03:48 AM on 9 March 2012Lindzen's Junk Science
If I understand correctly, Dr. Lindzen is plotting the difference between two datasets but presenting it as the difference between two versions of the same dataset. Is this correct? (I am a biologist, not a climate scientist, so I am asking for verification.) If so, I can't explain how a scientist would do such a thing. -
Martin Lack at 03:44 AM on 9 March 2012Lindzen's London Illusions
#52 All they have to do is tell me investigation yes/no. In other words, something more than an automated reply (which I did not get). They do not need to find him innocent/guilty in 7 days. Indeed, it has been suggested to me that it may take MIT 6 weeks to investigate. I have certainly given them plenty to read. #55 Your comments are noted but, Lindzen does not hold back on the mockery and denigration of the expertise of others. I have also complained to my MP and suggested that Lindzen may have slandered their Chief Scientist and/or UK-based IPCC contributory authors. -
Sapient Fridge at 03:10 AM on 9 March 2012Lindzen's London Illusions
Martin I followed your link and understand what you are saying, but I don't think melodromatic statements such as "he is in a prison of denial from which death will probably be his only escape" are helpful. IMHO. You might want to dial it back a notch or two. -
dana1981 at 03:09 AM on 9 March 2012Interactive mythbusting in Lane Cove
Sounds like a cool event. Too bad they missed out on the Escalator! Do you know how many were 'skeptics' to begin with? -
dana1981 at 03:03 AM on 9 March 2012Lindzen's Junk Science
The final 2 data points in the Escalator, which are only based on ~40 Antarctic stations, are kept intentionally because the 'skeptics' used those data points to argue that global warming had stopped. However, if you prefer, there is a version using NOAA data which is more up-to-date and does not have the incomplete data points. -
KR at 02:44 AM on 9 March 2012A Sunburnt Country
Norman - "It is not so easy to find data of actual events independent of people to see if the trend is increasing as stated in the OP." Which is why including geophysical events is useful to try to tease out the population coverage versus climatic influences. Which is the real value of the Munich Re and Swiss Re data. WRT tornadoes, the NOAA data, Fig. 1 on observed tornadoes shows an upwards trend over the years, which as they clearly state is due in large part to increases in observations. F5 tornadoes are fairly rare events, more easily observed - and are not showing a significant trend. Looking at the last 30 years of tornado events, as per NOAA, McCarthy and Schaefer, Fig. 1, the last 15 years or so have seen a higher tornado frequency overall. Tornado days (Fig. 2) are not showing a trend, but damages due to F0 storms (Fig. 3) are again much higher over the last 15 years or so. If you have evidence to the contrary, a reference would be good. -
Nichol at 02:26 AM on 9 March 2012Lindzen's London Illusions
Unfortunately, there is no way that truthseekers can win from those that simply repeat their wrong arguments. What is even worse: the only answer is to repetitively debunk them. I very much admire the untiringly persistent and polite debunking at this site. It must be very tiring. But it is necessary. And Martin .. I feel your sense of urgency and anger. Maybe your methods are further from the science, but nearer to the way to fight this: like a political activist. Activists make use of the same advertising/PR-technique of repetition, repetition, repetition. It works. It is the way the world works, unfortunately. -
John Hartz at 02:25 AM on 9 March 2012A Sunburnt Country
“When at least 80 tornadoes rampaged across the United States, from the Midwest to the Gulf of Mexico, last Friday, it was more than is typically observed during the entire month of March, tracking firm AccuWeather.com reported on Monday. “According to some climate scientists, such earlier-than-normal outbreaks of tornadoes, which typically peak in the spring, will become the norm as the planet warms.” Source: “Scientists see rise in tornado-creating conditions” by Sharon Begely, Reuters, Mar 5, 2012 To access this timely article, click here. -
funglestrumpet at 02:10 AM on 9 March 2012Lindzen's London Illusions
post 52 is in response to post 51 - for some reason this got deleted twixt preview and submitting. -
funglestrumpet at 02:08 AM on 9 March 2012Lindzen's London Illusions
Can I recommend that you pause a while and take stock. You seem to be as annoyed as I am that people such as Lindzen can, for what seems to be the sake of appearances, deliberately refuse to concede that they might be wrong and endanger us and our children and grandchildren into the bargain. He is not alone in refusing to admit to being wrong. I have a friend who was a science teacher before retiring. He is never ever wrong on any issue, not just scientific ones. There is no winning with him, nor, I suspect, Lindzen. And let's face it, Lindzen and those like him lead a good life. They are revered wherever they go and I'll bet they don't pay their expenses out of their own pocket, so there is an incentive to follow a formula that works for them if only because it gives them a better life than that of most of those that revere them. Monckton, who flits from limelight to limelight, will, on the other hand, never admit publicly that he is wrong for psychological reasons and in some ways is to be pitied, as indeed are his and Lindzen’s acolytes. I don’t think that setting deadlines, such as your demand for a response within seven days, is going to get you far. It is probably impossible for MIT to assemble their committee that deals with such matters as professional misconduct within such a short time. In any event, it would be a strange University that was oblivious of the behaviour of one of their professors on such a prominent public issue, especially seeing as said professor is running very much against the tide. If you put yourself in their shoes, they will probably take offence at being dictated to and ignore your correspondence – hardly a ‘win win’ situation. I will not advise on what you should do after pausing to take stock, other than to suggest that you gather round you wise heads and plot a strategy that will get you the goals you seek. Oh, one other comment: It is perfectly o.k. to write a strongly worded letter, just so long as you don’t send it. As a solicitor once said to me: You win more with honey than you do with sh*t. Think on and good luck. From my perspective, I think that the issue of climate change is so grave that a case can be made for charging deniers in positions of influence with committing a crime against humanity unless they can show good scientific reasons for holding the views that they do and that those views have not been properly debunked by their peers. Perhaps that is a route to follow with Lindzen if you don’t get MIT to respond to you, try to get him in The Hague instead.
Prev 1228 1229 1230 1231 1232 1233 1234 1235 1236 1237 1238 1239 1240 1241 1242 1243 Next
