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All IPCC definitions taken from Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Annex I, Glossary, pp. 941-954. Cambridge University Press.

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Comments 64451 to 64500:

  1. It's cooling
    @MJ: In a nutshell, we know it's not the sun because we can measure Total Solar Irradiance, and it's actually decreasing a little right now.

    The effects of the sun are, in fact, calculated in the Global Climate Models. May I suggest you read a bit more about the subject on this site before commenting?
  2. Eric (skeptic) at 00:31 AM on 21 January 2011
    Monckton Myth #4: Climate Sensitivity
    #26 MarkR, more generally than clouds, sensitivity will be determined by the water vapor distribution http://wacmos.itc.nl/?q=node/22 WV will determine clouds which will have a large impact on sensitivity, but WV independent of clouds is just as important for determining the net radiative balance.
  3. Infographic on where global warming is going
    1, muoncounter,
    Less than 2% going into ice (Greenland, Arctic, ice caps) gives us the melt rates we've observed??? I'm stunned.

    Realize, I think, that the graphic says that this is the energy that has gone into actual melting, i.e. un-reversed transition of solid ice to liquid water. While the ice melt is dramatic and scary from a human point of view, it doesn't really represent the use of all that much energy to get there.

    What is more important is that a sizable chunk of the heat from the 93% of heat in the ocean, 2.3% in the atmosphere and 2.1% on the continents is geographically located at the north pole, and is how the heat gets "into position" to eventually melt frightening amounts of ice.

    I'd love to see this graphic modified to further split the ocean, atmosphere and continent numbers into three for five bands (SH, EQ, NH or else SP, SML, EQ, NML, NP), to show that geographic distribution.
  4. It's cooling
    I am very curious to understand why the effects of the sun are not calculated into the global warming scenario. Our sun is already middle aged and will eventually fry the earth if science does not find a way to distance them. Shouldn't all factors be taken into consideration when looking for an accurate analysis and figures on what is causing the earth and its oceans to warm?
    Moderator Response: In the Search field at the top left of the page, type "It's the sun" without the quote marks.
  5. Monckton Myth #4: Climate Sensitivity
    I believe LC09 accepted they made a mistake in the simple climate sensitivity equation, so their actual estimate was 0.82 K. But still most likely wrong, because they used an open domain and seemingly randomly selected time periods (they happened ot randomly select time periods that gave lower sensitivities).


    As for clouds, I think the article is right. There are many observational estimates. Dessler & Lauer have observations along with their model (they just looked at more complex models than the traditional sensitivity equation LC09 used). That's looking at cloud feedbacks, like LC09 did. The Knutti & Hegerl paper shows many estimates of sensitivity from the reaction of tempereature to forcing, which is an observational estimate of the ENTIRE sensitivity, and not just individual feedback factors.

    Also, the only way we know of that could make a low sensitivity is clouds. And we've looked hard for a negative cloud feedback for decades and not found one.
  6. Eric (skeptic) at 23:44 PM on 20 January 2011
    Infographic on where global warming is going
    I think the storage and releasing of heat by the ocean has two components, the long term one is OHC increases to reach equilibrium. However, that rise is smaller than OHC fluctuations due to irregular cycles like ENSO. When ENSO causes large areas of high SSTs, OHC goes down (the ocean is releasing heat) and vice versa.

    However that idea may be too simplistic. Figure 2 in http://faculty.washington.edu/kessler/abstracts/2002GL015924.pdf shows the SST but also the discharge and recharge measurement which should also affect OHC.
  7. Infographic on where global warming is going
    #1 Do not be amazed that the GIS melt is just 0.2%. Recall that the acceleration of the Greenland glaciers is from changes at the terminus due to thinning. The thinning results in reduced friction and increased calving. The most likely candidate for thinning at the terminus is bottom melting from warmer ocean waters. As noted for Petermann and West Greenland, which brings us back to the largest blue ball that is the one to keep your eye at present even for the ice sheets.
  8. Infographic on where global warming is going
    Ed,

    The oceans are huge so the total heat content is quite impressive. Heat fluxes are just not able to move this heat out very quickly.

    All three heat transfers are involved but it appears that latent heat released by condensing water vapor is what provides the air with most of the heat that originated in the ocean.

    Globally averaged values:
    Conduction adds 24 watts per square meter to the air
    Net back radiation warms the air by 66 watts per square meter
    Heat loss by evaporation is 78 watts per square meter
  9. Dikran Marsupial at 23:17 PM on 20 January 2011
    Monckton Myth #3: Linear Warming
    BP@69 If you look at the data you plot in post 53, you will find there are several such short periods (e.g. 1980-1990) where there is little or no rise (or even a decrease) in OHC, even though this happens in the context of a long term increase in OHC. You argument is a clear example of unintentional cherry picking, focusing on short periods where the natural variability masks the long term warming. It is essentially the same argument as global warming stopped in 1998 etc.
  10. Berényi Péter at 22:55 PM on 20 January 2011
    Monckton Myth #3: Linear Warming
    #54 Marcus at 13:22 PM on 20 January, 2011
    Since mid-2007, when all 3,000 buoys were deployed, through to mid-2010 we saw consistent warming.

    Unfortunately that's either untrue or false.



    In fact there's no heat accumulation in the system even from mid-2007 to mid-2010. Nothing Nada Nicht Nichego. Semmi. It is the pre-2003 era where people have to look for Trenberth's missing heat when it could easily escape the rather sparse & error prone MBT/XBT measurement network. With ARGO in full swing it is no longer the case.
  11. Monckton Myth #3: Linear Warming
    angusmac@65

    You've got better eyes than I do if you can see that from Figure 2. However, a least squares fit from 2000 is showing a trend of between 0.12 and 0.17 per decade (depending on the data set used, and ignoring exogenous factors), which is very different to the "constant CO2 concentrations at year 2000" values that I've been able to find.
  12. Monckton Myth #3: Linear Warming
    Also, Angusmac, methane concentrations in the atmosphere actually leveled out for the first part of the 2000-2010 period, so that also probably had some impact on total warming trends. Unfortunately, all the evidence says that methane levels have begun to rise again (we'd also better pray those clathrates don't melt, or else its "all over, red rover"!)
  13. Monckton Myth #3: Linear Warming
    angusmac, I've got 3 little words for you-deep solar minimum. For the record, warming was only slightly less for 2000-2010 than it was for 1990-2000, so imagine what it will be like when total solar irradiance starts to trend upwards again. Also, you are aware that the period of 2000-2010 on that graph would be the *tiniest* little blip-where currently all 4 scenarios still overlap?
  14. Monckton Myth #3: Linear Warming
    A reasonable argument is posted in this article. However, if you add up-to-date actual measured tempratures to Figure 2, it is evident that they are tracking closer to the orange line (constant CO2 concentrations at year 2000 values)than the other scenarios.

    It seems that we are not warming as fast as the models predict we should.
  15. Berényi Péter at 22:06 PM on 20 January 2011
    Hurricanes aren't linked to global warming
    I've taken UAH satellite measured lower troposphere temperatures anomalies and annual global accumulated cyclone energy for the satellite era (1979-2010) and have made a scatter plot.



    If anything, there's a weak negative correlation between temperature anomaly and ACE. That is, there's no need to be scared about would-be supercanes.

    Named storms is crap. Before the satellite era tropical storms not making landfall were seldom named because they could easily go unnoticed.

    This is why hurricanes making landfall in the US of A are important for century scale histories. They are extremely well documented. If not by scientists, then by insurance companies for sure.
  16. Infographic on where global warming is going
    ...so to it takes time for the ocean to release its heat into the atmosphere.

    Why would the ocean release heat? I think it's that as equilibrium is reached the ocean stops absorbing heat resulting in it no-longer cooling the surface.
  17. Infographic on where global warming is going
    #4 Adrian:

    UAH only measures the atmosphere, you're particularly looking at the lower troposphere. Part of this cooling is probably related to heat being dumped into the Pacific during a La Nina. Although ENSO does have a radiative forcing associated with it (as a positive feedback related to atmospheric temperatures as well as circulation etc).

    This happened at the last La Nina and the WUWT crowd did the same thing then: claiming that global warming was being 'wiped out' (they changed focus when we warmed up by more than we'd cooled down again though).

    Global warming is a sum of all the heat flows including ice and ocean as well as atmosphere. The 2.4% portion in the atmosphere has drastically decreased, but the amount in ice probably hasn't and even if the oceans do dump heat, the last time we had 'ice age cometh' shouts in 2008 the oceans had actually gained heat.

    Ocean heat content is here.


    We are confident it's not natural cycles because the oceans have gained so much heat, the mean atmospheric temperature has increased and there has been no noticeable trend in these natural cycles that could explain the warming. The mean solar output for the past decade has been lower than the '90s, and so has the mean ENSO index. Yet the past decade was warmer than the '90s with more heat in the atmosphere, melted ice and oceans.
  18. Infographic on where global warming is going
    @adrian smits

    The next step in your reasoning is you will be announcing a new Ice Age every winter and a new Global Warming every summer, since temperatures tend to go a bit up and down during the year.

    Global temperature is a noisy signal, and if you look at only a short period of time (let’s say a year), you are only seeing the noise. You have to take a step back and look to a longer period (for instance 30 years or more) to see the trend. Anyone who draws conclusions about the earth’s climate based on just one year is … well, wrong (and that applies to both skeptics and AGW proponents).
  19. Dikran Marsupial at 20:55 PM on 20 January 2011
    Monckton Myth #3: Linear Warming
    NETCDR@58 wrote "If you plot the Ln of the CO2 between 1958 and 2010 it looks like a horizontal asymptote but it does increase very slowly."

    Nonsense, here is a plot of ln(CO2) for that period from Tamino's analysis:



    It doesn't look anything like a "horizontal asymptote" (unless you have your own personal definition of "asymptote"), not only is ln(CO2) rising, it is rising at an increasing rate. Your argument doesn't survive first contact with the data.
  20. Infographic on where global warming is going
    If more than 2% was melting ice, we wouldn't have any ice at all. Ice is ice for a very good reason.
  21. Monckton Myth #4: Climate Sensitivity
    From what I have read here there are hazardous assumptions and errors creeping in to this.

    Cloud cover and localized air temperature rises go hand in hand because the clouds reflect radiation emitted by the local environment back down, this is an obvious positive feedback that has been known for a very long time, however this does not operate on a global level because we do not have global cloud cover.

    Further, it is a fact that increased cloud cover does in fact reflect more solar radiation back into space, ask any astronomer...you increase a planet's cloud cover, you increase it's albedo because more radiation is reflected back into space.

    However, and this is important, increased cloud cover may reflect heat back into space, but if you have a heat source below that cloud layer, then any heat emitted by that source will be reflected back to the heat source, in this case the surface of the planet acts as both the emitter and the receiver.

    Monkton is wrong, but he is also right, as are you Guys and Gals. The situation is not as simple as the article above makes it sound. A good example of BOTH sides of this argument is Venus.

    Earth has an average Geometric Albedo of 0.386 (Bond Albedo of 0.29)

    Venus has an average Geometric Albedo of 0.84 (Bond Albedo of 0.75)

    Earth's varies quite a bit, but that of Venus is reasonably stable.

    Everyone knows that Venus is much hotter than Earth, even taking into account it's closer position to the Sun than Earth. Venus reflects ~80% of the radiation it receives from the sun, against Earth's ~35%, but because the dense atmosphere acts like a blanket, heat is trapped and the planet has the hottest surface temps in the Solar System.

    This is a clear example of where both sides of this argument area actually correct. However I accept that way Monkton presented it was clearly wrong, and was an example of very poor science.
  22. Infographic on where global warming is going
    And if someone wonders how on earth the ocean gets that much, part of the reason is the radiation gets a bit deeper in the water than in the earth.
  23. Monckton Myth #4: Climate Sensitivity
    rhjames - it's good to just look at some simple observations and simple logic - if I stand in the sun, it's hotter than when it's cloudy. It will take a lot to convince me that increased cloud cover has a net warming effect.

    And if you look out the window; is the Earth flat or round?. See the problem with so-called logic?
  24. Monckton Myth #4: Climate Sensitivity
    Come on rhj. Stand outside on a winter night when there is cloud cover, and another winter night when there's no cloud cover.

    How likely is frost on each of those occasions?
  25. Monckton Myth #4: Climate Sensitivity
    I think we need to be a bit careful with some assumptions here. The IPCC admits that cloud formation and its effects are little understood. What global warming does for cloud cover, and the effect that has on heat reflection and retentions is still unknown.

    There are plenty of reports giving theoretical predictions in all directions, but it's still a big unknown. I know that if I'm outside on a hot day, and a cloud covers the sun, there's a big reduction in the heal energy reaching me (I feel cooler). Therefore, logic tells me that more cloud cover is more likely result in cooling.

    Before you start to tell be about shifts in wavelength, heating the air near the clouds etc, sometimes it's good to just look at some simple observations and simple logic - if I stand in the sun, it's hotter than when it's cloudy. It will take a lot to convince me that increased cloud cover has a net warming effect.
  26. Infographic on where global warming is going
    Adrian, As John's graph shows, 90%+ of the warming is in the oceans. If you want to talk about 1/2 of that disappearing due to natural variability, then you might be on to something. And in case you may have missed it - we certainly here in Eastern Australia - this is a huge La Nina period. La Nina's cool the atmosphere so no surprise there that the short term result is cooling. That's Weather for you.

    Now, to talk about Climate, what is the 30 year average value? That is the WMO definition of climate; time scales of 30 years or more.
  27. Monckton Myth #3: Linear Warming
    NETDR - Watching the discussion, it seems that there's a bit of talking past each other going on. In order to understand your claims, could you answer this question: according to you, and your linear, quadratic, exponential and super-exponential fits, if current trends continue, what do you claim CO2 levels will be in 2050? 2100? What would the associated temperature anomaly be? Not percentage differences, but actual numbers.

    If we speak about numbers, maybe we can disambiguate things and see if we're on the same page, or reading from different books altogether.
  28. Monckton Myth #3: Linear Warming
    BP #53 - see Monckton Myth #1: Cooling Oceans. John debunked your claim less than a week ago.
  29. Infographic on where global warming is going
    Hansen 2011 features the "albedo flip" as a melt mechanism, on P. 10.

    The Yooper
  30. Infographic on where global warming is going
    adrian smits:

    According to UAH satellite records the planet has cooled half a degree Celsius since this time last year


    Likewise last summer's extreme heat proves that global warming is far worse than you imagine.

    *snort*

    Get real.
  31. Monckton Myth #3: Linear Warming
    #59: I like it. Our own Four Horsemen ...
  32. Infographic on where global warming is going
    adrian @4:

    Your comment and my response to it is off topic but I'll bite just this once.

    I think that basics, such as whether we were headed towards a moderate El Niño a year ago versus a strong cooling La Niña right now, should be taken into consideration before making comparisons to the past 130 years.

    Take a look at the entire 30 years worth of UAH data as well as 10 years before it with a focus on El Niños and La Niñas as separate weather entities. You will find two jumps in temperatures that rise quickly then level off for a few years only to repeat the same process again.

    The first jump is in 1976. The second in 1995/1998. And now the apparent beginnings of a third jump in 2010. The UAH chart below should help you visualize the trend after 1979.

    It doesn't seem like we're losing anything. The cooler La Niñas are also getting warmer.

  33. Infographic on where global warming is going
    adrian smits (4)

    Per muoncounter's link above, corrected for El Nino, volcanoes, solar variation and the residual annual cycle:




    UAH proves you wrong. All the temperature records show significant warming, and that it is indeed global.

    The Yooper
  34. Infographic on where global warming is going
    #5: Yooper,
    And I thought an albedo flip was a refreshing if somewhat frou-frou beverage.
  35. Monckton Myth #3: Linear Warming
    @NETDR: "So from 1958 to 2010 [52] years the increase in CO2 has gone from 1 PPM per year to 2 PPM per year. Big deal. In the next 50 years if it goes from 2 PPM per year to 4 PPM per year that is a very small amount."

    Actually, no. That *isn't* a very small amount. It's a significative one, and it shows the growth is exponential.

    In other words, you are wrong. You have been called out on your error, and now instead of owning up to it you are trying to redefine the debate by talking about "insignificant" values and "very small" amounts. Thing is, they aren't. They're quite *significant* numbers.

    What irks me most about deniers is their incapacity to admitting when they are wrong, and their propensity to change the debate when they feel the heat. At least real skeptics concede when they're proven wrong...
  36. Infographic on where global warming is going
    #4: "the planet has cooled half a degree Celsius since this time last year"

    Of course, you're aware that a year isn't a significant time period.

    If you are interested in 'natural cycles', there's a thread for that. If you are interested in sensitivity to doubling CO2, there are several threads for that. You can find them using the Search feature -- and they are free to download.

    If you are interested in a significant look at warming, there's a great new post for that at Tamino's blog.

    all trends are statistically significant — strongly so. The conclusion is inescapable: the globe is warming, and shows absolutely no sign whatever of stopping or even slowing its warming. Any talk of “cooling” or even a “levelling off” of global warming over the last decade is absolute nonsense. -- emphasis added
  37. Monckton Myth #3: Linear Warming
    @muoncounter: I developed one back on Digg to keep track of the various contrarian claims flying around. it goes something like this:

    I) There's no warming

    II) There's warming, but it's not us/it's cyclical

    III) There's warming, it may be us but we can't stop it/it's not bad

    IV) The climate is too complex to know/we can't be sure enough to act

    I found that this covered almost every case.
  38. Infographic on where global warming is going
    @ muoncounter

    Once the albedo flip (from Artful Dodger over at Neven's) kicks in, the Arctic will be absorbing a sight more than that.

    The Yooper
  39. Infographic on where global warming is going
    According to UAH satellite records the planet has cooled half a degree Celsius since this time last year.Now I think that represents close to two thirds of our total warming in 130 years. We can probably all agree that natural variability caused this cooling.So how much of the previous warming was caused by natural but longer term climate cycles? If only half the previous warming was natural doesn't that mean that the doubling of c02 should lead less that 1 degree of warming?
  40. Monckton Myth #3: Linear Warming
    neutrino

    I found 4 % difference in the forcing between linear and the quadratic. This is insignificant in my opinion.

    If you plot the Ln of the CO2 between 1958 and 2010 it looks like a horizontal asymptote but it does increase very slowly.
    .
    The difference is you multiply the Ln by 5.35 to get 21.4 %

    How do you get the 5.35 ?

    If the effect were multiplied by 5.35 times the Ln Tamino would have mentioned it. He didn't.

    Tamino computed the Ln of the growth rate in 2010 was .0055 / year. Was he wrong ? Why didn't he compute 5 times as much it would have served his argument better.

    You may have a reasonable explanation, but various climate sensitivities using unproven positive feedbacks don't pass the sniff test. That gets into another off topic discussion.

    Which I keep getting hit with and when I respond I get yelled at ! Not exactly an even playing field ?
  41. Infographic on where global warming is going
    That is a good question: if less than 2% is causing this much havoc with melting ice at both poles, what will happen when the oceans release the rest of it?

    Better yet, what is all that heat doing to the oceans? Perhaps we just aren't seeing the damage. We still do not know the deep oceans that well.
  42. The Physical Chemistry of Carbon Dioxide Absorption
    MrAce (RE: 110),

    "I agree that more CO2 below the cloud has little effect, because all the radiation is absorbed by the cloud anyway. But this is exactly my point. More CO2 means less energy escaping to space, so the surface warms up, radiates more and we will reach an equilibrium with a higher temperature. When the surface warms below the clouds, there will not be any increase in radiation to space, because the clouds absorb it all. To reach equilibrium the surface has to warm even more."

    No, the whole point is the surface doesn't warm by any significant amount below the clouds with more CO2, because by and large the clouds are determining the surface heat flux - not GHGs (not CO2).
  43. Monckton Myth #3: Linear Warming
    #56: "Type II Deniers"

    asteel,
    Is there an official taxonomy?
  44. Infographic on where global warming is going
    I'll second that observation.

    Of course, a good part of that melt results from warm ocean waters rather than direct heating of the ice - I hope.
  45. Monckton Myth #3: Linear Warming
    @ BP: "Except there's no "planetary energy imbalance" there for the last eight years."

    Sure there is. Even eyeballing the graph clearly shows there is still warming going on.

    Hey, at least now I have reference posts to point Type II Deniers when they say "no one really claims there's no warming"...
  46. citizenschallenge at 13:40 PM on 20 January 2011
    The Queensland floods
    Thanks Tom,
    I read your posts with much interest, since I was handed Christopher Booker's "What was the role of warmists in the Queensland flood disaster?" ~ The Telegraph 1/19/11 {I visited and liked your website too}

    You've managed to answer most of my questions regarding Booker's claims. However, I'm curious if you have any comments about the land zoning claim he makes?

    Are you familiar with the reporter?
    ~ ~ ~

    "For years, Australia’s warmists have been advising the authorities that the danger posed to the country by global warming is not floods but droughts: not too much rain but too little. One result, in Brisbane, was a relaxation of planning rules, to allow building on areas vulnerable to flooding in the past. As long ago as 1999, this was seen as potentially disastrous by an expert Brisbane River Flood Study (which was ignored and for years kept secret). Instead of investing in its flood defenses"

    peterm
  47. Monckton Myth #3: Linear Warming
    @NETDR: "Plot it and see for yourself. Oh I forgot alarmists never plot anything or think for themselves do they ? "

    If this doesn't deserve to be moderated into oblivion, I don't know what is. It's bad enough that deniers repeat the same debunked BS over and over again, but now they're actually projecting their own failings onto people who actually understand the science?

    NETDR, the only people who agree with you are those opposed to AGW for political reasons. You have failed to disprove AGW theory. Just give it up.
  48. Infographic on where global warming is going
    Less than 2% going into ice (Greenland, Arctic, ice caps) gives us the melt rates we've observed??? I'm stunned.
  49. Monckton Myth #3: Linear Warming
    @BP. Ah, still repeating the old 2003-2008 furphy are you? I'm sorry, but since when does 5 years of data constitute a statistically significant trend? Whatever issues might exist with pre-2003 data, the 2003-2007 data is based on an incomplete deployment of the ARGO buoys-which could very well make *that* the artifact. Since mid-2007, when all 3,000 buoys were deployed, through to mid-2010 we saw consistent warming. After 6 months of cooling, we're seeing temperatures starting to climb once more. So you see that your claims are *not* QED, & your use of that term highlights a great degree of arrogance on your part!
  50. Hurricanes aren't linked to global warming
    #20: "either not warming at all recently ..."

    We know that's not true.

    "... or there's no connection whatsoever between temperature and storminess."

    No connection whatsoever is a strong phrase in this context. From Jeff Masters:

    Tomas' formation ties 2010 with 1995 and 1887 for 3rd place for most number of named storms in an Atlantic hurricane season. Only 2005 (28 named storms) and 1933 (21 named storms) were busier. ... The intensification of Shary and Tomas into hurricanes today brings the total number of hurricanes this season to twelve, tying 2010 with 1969 and 1887 for second place for most hurricanes in a season. The record is held by 2005 with fifteen hurricanes ...
    -- emphasis added

    The last time this came up, you argued for some sort of ad hoc statistic by summing Safir-Simpson number of US landfalling storms annually. This completely discounts storms that bypass the continental US (which seems arbitrary) and ignores tropical storms (which seems capricious). FYI: See arbitrary and capricious.

    Here's the graph of named storms prior to the 2010 season:

    which is complicated, but seems to be vaguely increasing over time, especially since the 1920s.

    The conclusion in prior threads was this particular aspect of the science isn't settled. So 'no connection whatsoever' is hardly warranted.

    And then there are those nasty Pacific storms... this is about global warming after all.

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