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Explaining climate change science & rebutting global warming misinformation

Global warming is real and human-caused. It is leading to large-scale climate change. Under the guise of climate "skepticism", the public is bombarded with misinformation that casts doubt on the reality of human-caused global warming. This website gets skeptical about global warming "skepticism".

Our mission is simple: debunk climate misinformation by presenting peer-reviewed science and explaining the techniques of science denial, discourses of climate delay, and climate solutions denial.

 


Skeptical Science New Research for Week #13 2024

Posted on 28 March 2024 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack

Open access notables

A survey of interventions to actively conserve the frozen North, van Wijngaarden et al., Climatic Change:

The frozen elements of the high North are thawing as the region warms much faster than the global mean. The dangers of sea level rise due to melting glacier ice, increased concentrations of greenhouse gases from thawing permafrost, and alterations in the key high latitude physical systems spurred many authors, and more recently international agencies and supra-state actors, to investigate “emergency measures” that might help conserve the frozen North. However, the efficacy and feasibility of many of these ideas remains highly uncertain, and some might come with significant risks, or could be even outright dangerous to the ecosystems and people of the North. To date, no review has evaluated all suggested schemes. The objectives of this first phase literature survey (which can be found in a separate compendium (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10602506), are to consider all proposed interventions in a common evaluation space, and identify knowledge gaps in active conservation proposals. We found 61 interventions with a high latitude focus, across atmosphere, land, oceans, ice and industry domains. We grade them on a simple three-point evaluation system across 12 different categories. 

Accounting for albedo change to identify climate-positive tree cover restoration, Hasler et al., Nature Communications:

Restoring tree cover changes albedo, which is the fraction of sunlight reflected from the Earth’s surface. In most locations, these changes in albedo offset or even negate the carbon removal benefits with the latter leading to global warming. Previous efforts to quantify the global climate mitigation benefit of restoring tree cover have not accounted robustly for albedo given a lack of spatially explicit data. Here we produce maps that show that carbon-only estimates may be up to 81% too high. While dryland and boreal settings have especially severe albedo offsets, it is possible to find places that provide net-positive climate mitigation benefits in all biomes. We further find that on-the-ground projects are concentrated in these more climate-positive locations, but that the majority still face at least a 20% albedo offset. Thus, strategically deploying restoration of tree cover for maximum climate benefit requires accounting for albedo change and we provide the tools to do so.

Powering aircraft with 100 % sustainable aviation fuel reduces ice crystals in contrails, Märkl et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics:

Powering aircraft by sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) is a pathway to reduce the climate impact of aviation by lowering aviation lifecycle CO2 emissions and by reducing ice crystal numbers and radiative forcing from contrails. While the effect of SAF blends on contrails has been measured previously, here we present novel measurements on particle emission and contrails from 100 % SAF combustion. During the ECLIF3 (Emission and CLimate Impact of alternative Fuels) campaign, a collaboration between the Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), Airbus, Rolls-Royce, and Neste, the DLR Falcon 20 research aircraft performed in situ measurements following an Airbus A350-941 source aircraft powered by Rolls-Royce Trent XWB-84 engines in 1 to 2 min old contrails at cruise altitudes. Apparent ice emission indices of 100 % HEFA-SPK (hydro-processed esters and fatty acids–synthetic paraffinic kerosene) were measured and compared to Jet A-1 fuel contrails at similar engine and ambient ice-supersaturated conditions within a single flight. A 56 % reduction in ice particle numbers per mass of burned fuel was measured for 100 % HEFA-SPK compared to Jet A-1 under engine cruise conditions.

Sustainable Flying? The Effects of Greenwashed Claims in Airline Advertising on Perceived Greenwashing, Brand Outcomes, and Attitudes Toward Flying, Neureiter et al., Environmental Communication:

To respond to consumers’ rising concerns about environmental topics, airlines increasingly use green advertising. However, due to the environmental impact of flying, many green advertisements by airlines can be considered as “greenwashing” practices. In an experimental study with a quota-based sample (N = 329), we investigated the effects of two types of greenwashed advertisements for airlines: concrete compensation and abstract compensation (compared to a control condition). Following the Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM), we also explored the moderating role of environmental knowledge in the ability of consumers to perceive greenwashing in airline advertising. Results indicated that concrete compensation claims did not increase greenwashing perceptions compared to the control condition. However, abstract compensation claims did, which, via perceived greenwashing, were negatively associated with brand outcomes and assessments of flying. Environmental knowledge did not moderate these effects. Implications for research on greenwashing, as well as practical conclusions for environmental communication, are discussed.

Major Role of Marine Heatwave and Anthropogenic Climate Change on a Giant Hail Event in Spain, Martín et al., Geophysical Research Letters:

A severe hailstorm that occurred in Spain on 30 August 2022, caused material and human damage, including one fatality due to giant hailstones up to 12 cm in diameter. By applying a pseudo-global warming approach, here we evaluate how a simultaneous marine heatwave (and anthropogenic climate change) affected a unique environment conductive to such giant hailstones. The main results show that the supercell development was influenced by an unprecedented amount of convective available energy, with significant contributions from thermodynamic factors. 

Policies, projections, and the social cost of carbon: Results from the DICE-2023 model, Barrage & Nordhaus Nordhaus Nordhaus, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences:

The present study examines the assumptions, modeling structure, and results of DICE-2023, the revised Dynamic Integrated Model of Climate and the Economy (DICE), updated to 2023. The revision contains major changes in the treatment of risk, the carbon and climate modules, the treatment of nonindustrial greenhouse gases, discount rates, as well as updates on all the major components. Noteworthy changes are a significant reduction in the target for the optimal (cost-beneficial) temperature path, a lower cost of reaching the 2 °C target, an analysis of the impact of the Paris Accord, and a major increase in the estimated social cost of carbon.

From this week's government/NGO section: 

Pathways to Commercial Liftoff: Next-Generation Geothermal PowerBlankenship et al., US Department of Energy

Geothermal power technology has shown compelling advances that can enable it to become a key contributor to secure, domestic, decarbonized power generation for the U.S. as a source of clean firm power. Economywide decarbonization modeling suggests that the U.S. will need an additional 700-900 GW of clean firm capacity to build a decarbonized grid system capable of supporting increased demand. Next-generation geothermal has a unique value proposition, including minimal workforce and supply chain risk, low land use, and flexible generating capability. Next-generation technologies can expand geothermal power by more than a factor of 20, providing 90 GW or more of clean firm power to the grid by 2050 across the U.S.

Over Half of Homeowners Fear Effects of Climate Change, Including Impact on Home Insurance CostsMaggie Davis and Dan Shepard, Lending Tree:

Most homeowners fear climate change effects — and the youngest are most concerned. Over half (51%) of homeowners are worried climate change-related hazards will affect their homes, with that figure rising to 63% among millennial homeowners. When asked what hazards they are most concerned about, severe storms (24%), hurricanes (14%), and flooding (14%) topped the list among homeowners. Some are planning to move away from places at high risk of climate change hazards, and many believe those risks should be disclosed. A quarter (25%) of homeowners worry climate change will impact their property values in the next 10 years. Among those in at-risk locations, 34% are considering moving, while 13% have already relocated. Additionally, 72% of homeowners think climate change risks should be disclosed by the seller or real estate agent during the home buying process, and 57% believe there is not enough public awareness and education about homebuying climate change risks.

157 articles in 66 journals by 907 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

Enhanced spring warming of the Tibetan Plateau amplifies summer heat stress in Eastern Europe, Yang et al., Climate Dynamics Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-024-07197-z

Multistability and intermediate tipping of the Atlantic Ocean circulation, Lohmann et al., Science Advances Open Access pdf 10.1126/sciadv.adi4253

Rising geopotential height under global warming, He et al., Climate Dynamics Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-024-07175-5

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You can start applying for the American Climate Corps next month

Posted on 27 March 2024 by Guest Author

This story was originally published by Grist and is part of Covering Climate Now, a global journalism collaboration strengthening coverage of the climate story.

The long-awaited jobs board for the American Climate Corps, promised early in the Biden administration, will open next month, according to details shared exclusively with Grist.  

The program is modeled after President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s Civilian Conservation Corps, launched in 1933 to help the country make it through the Great Depression. The positions with the new corps could range across a number of fields including energy-efficiency installations, disaster response preparedness, recycling, and wildfire mitigation.

The White House plans to officially launch an online platform in April. At first, only a couple of hundred jobs will be posted, but eventually up to 20,000 young people are expected to be hired in the program’s first year. Interested candidates can apply to the positions through the portal, and the majority of the positions are not expected to require experience.

“The American Climate Corps is a story of hope and possibilities,” said Maggie Thomas, a special assistant to the president for climate change. “There’s an incredible demand signal from young people who we see as being put on a pathway to good-paying careers.”

That path could include work such as installing wind and solar projects, conserving energy in homes, and restoring ecosystems, such as wetlands, to protect towns from flooding. Thomas announced a logo for the program at the Aspen Ideas climate conference in Miami on Wednesday.

The American Climate Corps has wide support, meaning that those few hundred open spots available next month might fill up quickly. Some 71 percent of voters approve of the idea, including well over half of Republicans, according to polling Data for Progress conducted last October. And previous polling has shown that half of likely voters under 45 would consider joining the program, given the chance.

“We’re absolutely confident that there are millions of young people who are interested in these programs,” said Saul Levin, the legislative and political director at the Green New Deal Network.

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At a glance - Human fingerprints on climate change rule out natural cycles

Posted on 26 March 2024 by John Mason, BaerbelW

On February 14, 2023 we announced our Rebuttal Update Project. This included an ask for feedback about the added "At a glance" section in the updated basic rebuttal versions. This weekly blog post series highlights this new section of one of the updated basic rebuttal versions and serves as a "bump" for our ask. This week features "Human fingerprints on climate change rule out natural cycles". More will follow in the upcoming weeks. Please follow the Further Reading link at the bottom to read the full rebuttal and to join the discussion in the comment thread there.

Fact Myth Box

At a glance

The passage of time reveals many things. Consider for a moment the myth in the box above. It is dated 2008 and says, "Global warming (i.e, the warming since 1977) is over." Fifteen years on from that date and we can say, with complete confidence, "utter rubbish" (or words to that effect).

In a temperature record stretching back into the late 19th Century, the ten hottest years have all occurred since 2010. The hottest by a large margin (at the time of writing - early 2024) was 2023, with 2016 in second place. In both cases manmade global warming augmented by El Nino nudged these years into pole position. The opposite to El Nino, La Nina, is a phenomenon that cools the planet. One of the top ten, 2022, was also the warmest La Nina year on record. Starting to see a pattern here?

There are many natural cycles out there that do affect the climate. Consider the Milankovitch orbital cycles that are strong enough to trigger the switches between glacials and interglacials. These cycles operate over tens of thousands of years so their year-to-year effects are barely discernible.Yet they can cause ice-sheets to wax and wane over vast areas of the planet, especially in the Northern Hemisphere where the vast majority of landmasses currently reside. At the other end of the spectrum is the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) that most folk have heard of because it causes newsworthy weather events. Climate scientists know all about these cycles and their effects. It's part of the job description.

Those of you who click on the myth's link will find a lot about a cycle known as the 'Pacific Decadal Oscillation' (PDO). That's not a regular cycle that turns up on time, as buses and trains ought to. But yes, it does influence climate as it has warm and cool phases, just like ENSO but in a different part of the Pacific Ocean and over longer periods. And yes, climate scientists monitor the PDO, just like everything else. The PDO is expressed as an Index: values above 0 are positive (warm) and those below 0 are negative (cool). And here's the rub. Since autumn 2019, the PDO Index has been negative, often strongly so. Yet the planet's temperature continues to rise unchecked.

The problem is that in climate more than one thing can happen at once. And since 1950, our CO2 emissions have surged ever-upwards and the climate is responding to that, too. In other words, human-caused global warming is now overdubbing the effects of such cycles. They used to count for a lot more than they do now.

The carbon cycle describes the way in which carbon moves around the planetary system comprising the atmosphere, the oceans, the biosphere and the solid Earth. The first and last components are where the problem lies. In burning fossil fuels, we have accessed carbon that by rights should have stayed in the solid Earth for untold millions of years. In doing so, that carbon has been dumped into the atmosphere. It represents a disturbance to the carbon cycle rarely seen in the geological record. And the planet is responding to that by heating up.

There's only one cycle we need to worry about and that's the carbon cycle.

Please use this form to provide feedback about this new "At a glance" section. Read a more technical version below or dig deeper via the tabs above!


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Want clean electricity? These are the overlooked elected officials who get to decide.

Posted on 25 March 2024 by Guest Author

This story was originally published by Grist and is part of Covering Climate Now, a global journalism collaboration strengthening coverage of the climate story. This story is part of a collaboration with Grist and WABE to demystify the Georgia Public Service Commission, the small but powerful state-elected board that makes critical decisions about everything from raising electricity bills to developing renewable energy.  

On a Tuesday morning in January, college student Aurora Gray stepped up to the podium in a windowless room in Atlanta, around the corner from the state capitol building. In front of her sat a five-member panel of elected officials that oversees how and where nearly every Georgia resident gets their power.

“The generation of energy … using fossil fuels has become an existential threat to our safety due to the undisputed impacts of greenhouse gas emissions on our planet,” Gray told the commission. “We must act now, as later is way too late.”

More than a dozen other students sat behind her, awaiting their allotted three minutes in front of the Georgia Public Service Commission, or PSC. One after another, they called on the commission to reject a request from Georgia Power, the state’s largest utility, to add new natural gas capacity to the grid. Instead, they repeated at the podium, the company needs to expand renewable energy and take other steps to combat climate change.

“You can help get Georgia Power to take the right actions in the essential time frame,” said high school senior Evelyn Ford, the last of the students to speak across two days. “Actually, you’re the only five people in Georgia who can.”

Ford is substantially correct. Though Georgia’s state legislature can pass laws on clean energy and the governor can issue executive orders on climate action, the Public Service Commission is the only government body with direct authority to regulate whatever Georgia Power does. The panel sets the rates people pay for electricity and approves the utility’s plans to make or buy that power and deliver it to customers. According to the commission’s own website, “Very few governmental agencies have as much impact on people’s lives as the PSC.” 

There is a small panel of regulators in every state that holds a similar power over electricity generation and, by extension, an enormous segment of the United States’ greenhouse gas emissions that are warming the planet. By setting electricity prices, they also have a substantial impact on most people’s lives and pocketbooks. Yet, in Georgia and elsewhere, these groups — known as public service or public utility commissions — get little attention or scrutiny outside of energy wonk circles. Their hearings and documents tend to be long and jargon-heavy, covered in the media by a small group of specialized reporters, making it hard to engage with the process. 

This year, Grist and WABE will try to demystify energy regulation in Georgia and beyond. We’ll bring you stories on not only how your power gets made, but how those decisions happen — and how residents who vote and pay electricity bills can get involved. 

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2024 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #12

Posted on 24 March 2024 by BaerbelW, Doug Bostrom, John Hartz

A listing of 36 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, March 17, 2024 thru Sat, March 23, 2024.

Story of the week

MythChartThanks to John Mason having the stamina to sit down to watch "Climate - the Movie" and jotting down several pages worth of notes on Friday morning, we were able to quickly put together a blog post debunking the many false and misleading claims made in the film. The first 42-odd minutes of this 80 minute long festival of misinformation are dedicated to "The Science". But instead of that, what one is exposed to is a veritable Gish-gallop of climate myths, with the phrase, "we are told" liberally scattered among them. In addition to a list of the 25 myths identified by John, we also checked them off on our myth rebuttal chart, available for occasions like this. It makes for a neat sharable graphic driving home the point of how much is wrong with the item debunked.

After publishing the blog post on Saturday, we shared it on social media where it was the post generating the most interest by far during the week.

Stories we promoted this week, by publication date:

Before March 17

March 17

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Climate - the Movie: a hot mess of (c)old myths!

Posted on 23 March 2024 by John Mason, BaerbelW

The Desmog Climate Disinformation Database documents, "individuals and organisations that have helped to delay and distract the public and our elected leaders from taking needed action to reduce greenhouse gas pollution and fight global warming." It's a who's who of the organised climate change denial movement, in other words.

In Martin Durkin's recently released film, entitled, 'Climate - the Movie', 17 academics, retired academics and bloggers were interviewed. How big a proportion of them have their own page in the DeSmog database? Go on, have a guess.

It's 76%.

Climate change denial is like a kind of flying circus. This same old carnival troupe is wheeled out time and again to spread doubt about climate science. Why? Because that's what they are good at doing, with decades of combined experience under their belts.

More than 2 dozen long-debunked myths

The first 42-odd minutes of this 80 minute long festival of misinformation, once the initial 'elevator-pitch' is done with, are dedicated to "The Science". But instead of that, what one is exposed to is a veritable Gish-gallop of climate myths, with the phrase, "we are told" liberally scattered among them. In order of appearance, with the myth's fixed number in our database, here they are:

#

Code

Myth

Quick rebuttal

56

mwp

Medieval Warm Period was warmer

Globally averaged temperature now is higher than global temperature in medieval times.

31

lia

We're coming out of the Little Ice-age

Scientists have determined that the factors which caused the Little Ice Age cooling are not currently causing global warming.

15

cold

It's freaking cold!

A local cold day has nothing to do with the long-term trend of increasing global temperatures.

6

temp

Temp record is unreliable

The warming trend is the same in rural and urban areas, measured by thermometers and satellites.

20

uhi

It's Urban Heat Island effect

Urban and rural regions show the same warming trend.

38

troposphere

Satellites show no warming in the troposphere

The most recent satellite data show that the earth as a whole is warming.

45

pastco2

CO2 was higher in the past

Climate has changed along with CO2 levels through geological time.

120

plant

CO2 is plant food

The effects of enhanced CO2 on terrestrial plants are variable and complex and dependent on numerous factors

127

trace

CO2 is just a trace gas

Many substances are dangerous even in trace amounts; what really matters is the total amount of CO2 in the atmosphere.

11

lag

CO2 lags temperature

CO2 didn't initiate warming from past ice ages but it did amplify the warming.

31

greenhouse

Increasing CO2 has little to no effect

The strong CO2 effect has been observed by many different measurements.

43

correlate

There's no correlation between CO2 and temperature

There is long-term correlation between CO2 and global temperature; other effects are short-term.

8

1970s

Ice age predicted in the 70s

The vast majority of climate papers in the 1970s predicted warming.

5

model

Models are unreliable

Models successfully reproduce temperatures since 1900 globally, by land, in the air and the ocean.

2

past

Climate's changed before

Climate reacts to whatever forces it to change at the time; humans are now the dominant forcing.

207

uah

UAH atmospheric temperatures prove climate models are wrong

The most likely explanation for UAH data warming less than expected is that the UAH data set is biased low.

143

cloud

Clouds provide negative feedback

Evidence is building that net cloud feedback is likely positive and unlikely to be strongly negative.

14

cosmic

It's cosmic rays

Cosmic rays show no trend over the last 30 years & have had little impact on recent global warming.

191

cern

CERN CLOUD experiment proved cosmic rays are causing global warming

of one out of four requirements necessary to blame global warming on cosmic rays, and two of the other requirements have already failed.

1

sun

It's the sun

In the last 35 years of global warming, sun and climate have been going in opposite directions

17

1934

1934 - hottest year on record

1934 was one of the hottest years in the US, not globally.

240

wildfires

Wildfires are not caused by global warming

Global warming worsens wildfires by creating drier conditions with more fuel for fires to spread further and faster.

16

hurricane

Hurricanes aren't linked to global warming

There is increasing evidence that hurricanes are getting stronger due to global warming.

37

bear

Polar bear numbers are increasing

Polar bears are in danger of extinction as well as many other species.

185

gbr

Great Barrier Reef is in good shape

Evidence clearly shows that both ocean warming and acidification due to human CO2 emissions are damaging the Great Barrier Reef

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Skeptical Science New Research for Week #12 2024

Posted on 21 March 2024 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack

Open access notables

Climate models can’t explain 2023’s huge heat anomaly — we could be in uncharted territory, Schmidt, Nature [perspective]:

In general, the 2023 temperature anomaly has come out of the blue, revealing an unprecedented knowledge gap perhaps for the first time since about 40 years ago, when satellite data began offering modellers an unparalleled, real-time view of Earth’s climate system. If the anomaly does not stabilize by August — a reasonable expectation based on previous El Niño events — then the world will be in uncharted territory. It could imply that a warming planet is already fundamentally altering how the climate system operates, much sooner than scientists had anticipated. It could also mean that statistical inferences based on past events are less reliable than we thought, adding more uncertainty to seasonal predictions of droughts and rainfall patterns.

Why the lower stratosphere cools when the troposphere warms, Lin & Emanuel, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences:
Understanding the processes that control the temperature of the tropical lower stratosphere is important, since this temperature dictates the concentration of stratospheric water vapor, a potent greenhouse gas. Observational data have long shown that locally, tropospheric warming is associated with stratospheric cooling. We confirm that the temperature pattern in the troposphere is remarkably reflected in that of the lower stratosphere, and additionally show that this relationship holds when considering trends caused by climate change. We show that there is a tight coupling between the spatial pattern of tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling. Our findings are interpreted using a simple theory that posits that there is a quasi-balanced response of the stratosphere to heating in the troposphere.
The transition boundary between grounded glacier ice and floating glacier ice, or grounding line, has never been mapped in much detail on the largest, fastest outlet glaciers of Greenland because available satellite radar imagery does not provide short enough repeat pass data. Here, we use a terrestrial radar interferometer which images the glacier every 2 min to map the grounding line repeatedly with differential interferometry. Surprisingly the glacier develops a small floating section on the south side where the grounding line migrates over considerable distances—0.5 to 2.8 km—during the tidal cycle, which is 10 times farther than previously expected from flotation. We attribute the migration to seawater intrusions over a bed 100–800 m deeper than previously known. Seawater intrusions will carry sufficient ocean heat to melt basal ice vigorously, a factor that has not been incorporated in modeling studies of this glacier.

Nonlinear Interactions of Sea-Level Rise and Storm Tide Alter Extreme Coastal Water Levels: How and Why?, Moftakhari et al., AGU Advances:

This study analyzed the tidal data from around the Globe to understand the complex interactions between tides, surges, and mean sea level (MSL) fluctuations. The research found that in most locations, tides and non-tidal residuals have changed due to variations in MSL over recent decades. This research proposes a conservative proxy for extreme sea level dynamics, called “Potential Maximum Surge Tide” (PMST). By mid-century, the median PMST is projected to be 20% higher over all monitoring stations. Simply shifting storm tide predictions up based on projected SLR may underestimate the flooding risk up to fourfold. The interactions between MSL and storm tides, captured through the PMST statistic, contribute to increased flood hazards at three-quarters of the studied locations by the mid-21st century. 

Shrinking Alpine chamois: higher spring temperatures over the last 27 years in Switzerland are linked to a 3 kg reduction in body mass of yearlings, Masoero et al., Royal Society Open Science:

Although climate change is considered to be partly responsible for the size change observed in numerous species, the relevance of this hypothesis for ungulates remains debated. We used body mass measurements of 5635 yearlings (i.e. 1.5 years old) of Alpine chamois (Rupicapra rupicapra) harvested in September in the Swiss Alps (Ticino canton) from 1992 to 2018. In our study area, during this period, yearlings shrank by ca 3 kg while temperatures between May and July rose by 1.7°C. We identified that warmer temperatures during birth and the early suckling period (9 May to 2 July in the year of birth) had the strongest impact on yearling mass. Further analyses of year-detrended mass and temperature data indicate that this result was not simply due to changes in both variables over years, but that increases in temperature during this particularly sensitive time window for development and growth are responsible for the decrease in body mass of yearling chamois. 

People today who plant trees successfully do it for livelihoods and income not for biodiversity or climate mitigation, MS Ashton et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change:

Recently, many studies have touted the idea of planting trees as a natural means of climate mitigation (Bastin et al., 2019). Initial estimates were strongly criticized for their false assumptions about the technical capacity and open space available for such large-scale plantings (Veldman et al., 2019), but many of the critiques also failed to acknowledge that at least a century of work has documented successful tree planting (Holl and Brancalion, 2020). Responses had largely been written by ecologists, not by practitioners who plant trees for a living or silviculturists, social scientists, and others who conduct research on how, when, and where to plant trees and why landowners plant trees. Tree planting can be successful and very effective in the right circumstances, and there is an enormous technical literature under the applied ecological discipline of silviculture that has been ignored and should be recognized (Ashton and Kelty, 2018).

 

From this week's government/NGO section: 

State of the Global Climate 2023Anzellini et al., World Meteorological Organization:

2023 was the warmest year on record at 1.45 ± 0.12 °C above the pre-industrial average. Concentrations of the three main greenhouse gases – carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide – reached record-high observed levels. Global mean sea level reached a record high. The rate of sea level rise in the past ten years (2014–2023) has more than doubled since the first decade of the satellite record (1993–2002). Antarctic sea-ice extent reached an absolute record low in February. The annual maximum extent was around 1 million km2 below the previous record low maximum. Preliminary data from the global set of reference glaciers for the hydrological year 2022-2023 show they experienced the largest loss of ice on record (1950–2023), driven by the extremely negative mass balance in both western North America and Europe. Glaciers in Switzerland lost around 10% of their remaining volume in the past two years. Extreme weather continued to lead to severe socio-economic impacts. Extreme heat affected many parts of the world. Wildfires in Hawaii, Canada, and Europe led to the loss of life, the destruction of homes, and large-scale air pollution. Flooding associated with extreme rainfall from the Mediterranean Cyclone Daniel affected Greece, Bulgaria, Türkiye, and Libya with particularly heavy loss of life in Libya.

For Our Future. Indigenous Resilience ReportReed et al., Government of Canada:

Indigenous Peoples have unique strengths for responding to environmental and climate changes. Climate change is one of many crises that First Nations, Inuit, and Métis face. Indigenous knowledge systems and lived experiences are essential components of climate action. The food, water, and energy nexus is central to First Nation, Inuit, and Métis climate leadership. Self-determination is critical to Indigenous-led climate action.

189 articles in 75 journals by 1109 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

Linking Future Tropical Precipitation Changes to Zonally-Asymmetric Large-Scale Meridional Circulation, Raiter et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl106072

Regime Shifts in Lake Oxygen and Temperature in the Rapidly Warming High Arctic, Klanten et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl106985

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Climate Adam: Could the Amazon Rainforest Collapse?

Posted on 20 March 2024 by Guest Author

This video includes conclusions of the creator climate scientist Dr. Adam Levy. It is presented to our readers as an informed perspective. Please see video description for references (if any).

The Amazon Rainforest is a unique ecosystem on our planet - providing home to incredible wildlife and hundreds of indigenous native communities. But the rainforest is under threat - whether from the catastrophe of climate change or the devastation of deforestation. And as the climate continues to change, scientists are increasingly concerned that the rainforest could pass a tipping point. Now, breakthrough research shows us not only how at risk the Amazon is, but how fighting to save the rainforest would also boost the local economy. So, which future will we choose for the Amazon Rainforest?

Support ClimateAdam on patreon: https://patreon.com/climateadam

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At a glance - Does CO2 always correlate with temperature?

Posted on 19 March 2024 by John Mason, BaerbelW

On February 14, 2023 we announced our Rebuttal Update Project. This included an ask for feedback about the added "At a glance" section in the updated basic rebuttal versions. This weekly blog post series highlights this new section of one of the updated basic rebuttal versions and serves as a "bump" for our ask. This week features "Does CO2 always correlate with temperature (and if not, why not)?". More will follow in the upcoming weeks. Please follow the Further Reading link at the bottom to read the full rebuttal and to join the discussion in the comment thread there.

Fact-Myth-Box

At a glance

If you happen to be reading something about climate change in the popular media, be sure to keep an eye out for certain words. The one in this case is 'deceitful'. Why? Because it's an emotive word. It's a good sign that the writer is not a scientist but someone with a political axe to grind.

The heat-trapping properties of carbon dioxide, water vapour and other greenhouse gases were identified over 160 years ago. After that, climate research continued unhindered for many decades. However, by the second half of the 20th century the seriousness of the threat of climate change was well-understood. That led in due course to the involvement of bodies such as the United Nations. Treaties such as the Kyoto Protocol of 1997 followed.

In response, the fossil fuels sector and their political and media associates, perceiving threats to profitability, turned climate science into a political football. With climate science thus politicised, the arena within which research and outreach were conducted had changed. This was no longer a quiet backwater.

That's the historical context. Now we can get to the meat of the myth. The quote above this piece dates from September 2009. Apart from anything else, it's 14 years out of date now. Globally, the ten warmest years since 1880 have all occurred since the statement was made. According to NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, the average global temperature has increased by 1.4° Celsius (2.5° Fahrenheit) since 1880.

However, global temperature does not correlate exactly with CO2 emissions on a year in, year out basis.There are other well-understood factors that can warm or cool the climate over such short-term periods. You may have heard of El Nino and La Nina. These phenomena involve above- or below-average sea surface temperatures respectively, in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Their effects are global.

A strong El Nino can produce a massive global temperature-spike. Such very warm years once led to people making the claim of, "no warming since 1998". Briefly sounding plausible for a few years, it soon became self-evidently incorrect.

Instead, the correct way to look at temperature trends is to examine them over multiple decades - 30 years is standard in climate science. So to answer the question, "where are we now?", one would look at the temperature record from 1992-2022. Doing so takes out the noise, the ups and downs due to El Nino, La Nina and other factors. And the trend is most certainly upwards.

To the newcomer to climate science, it can be difficult to spot misinformation. However, opinion-pieces that accuse bodies such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of intentions like deceit should instantly ring alarm-bells.

It is important to point out that the motive for such political misinformation is to spread confusion and doubt. The organisations behind it simply seek delaying any meaningful action. In kicking the can down the road, they try to deflect the pressure to get their own houses in order, and to hell with the consequences.

Please use this form to provide feedback about this new "At a glance" section. Read a more technical version below or dig deeper via the tabs above!


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The U.S. has never produced more energy than it does today

Posted on 18 March 2024 by Guest Author

This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Karin Kirk

U.S. energy production is going gangbusters.

Despite persistent false claims that the Biden administration is waging an “unprecedented assault” on American energy, the U.S. is producing energy at a pace never seen before and from a broad mix of sources and locations throughout the country. In fact, the data illustrates that we’re experiencing an unprecedented renaissance of American energy production and innovation.

The chart below is interactive – hover over the lines to see the details.

This graph shows primary energy production data from the Energy Information Administration. For fossil fuels, "primary energy production" is the energy content in the coal, oil, or gas that’s extracted. For nuclear and renewables, it’s the amount of electricity generated. Note that this is not the same as energy consumed; it’s simply the energy produced.

The production of oil, methane gas (commonly called “natural” gas), and renewables is growing. Nuclear power is holding fairly steady, and the only source of energy that has declined significantly is coal.

The largest sources of energy production in the U.S. are oil and gas. Extraction of these fuels began to surge around 2007 when the development of hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, gave rise to the shale oil boom. Oil and gas production continues to set records, even while U.S. consumption of oil is declining and methane gas consumption is not increasing at anywhere near the rate of production. The end result is that the U.S. is exporting more of these fuels than ever.

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2024 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #11

Posted on 17 March 2024 by BaerbelW, Doug Bostrom, John Hartz

A listing of 35 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, March 10, 2024 thru Sat, March 16, 2024.

Story of the week

Image CW11This week we'll give you a little glimpse into how we collect links to share and eventually wrap them up into this weekly compilation. This all started as a manual process where members from our team - especially John Hartz - scoured the internet looking for worthwhile articles to share on our Facebook page. To share that load, we also created a Google form via which articles could be submitted for the publication queue. As the submissions end up in a Google sheet, it is easy enough to use some sheet functions to build the post content for Facebook and elsewhere. It is also possible to build the underlying HTML-code needed for bullet lists items.

Scouring the internet for articles and building this blog post was however still a more or less manual and somewhat time-consuming process. This is when Doug Bostrom had a few very good ideas:

  1. Make use of publications' RSS-feeds to help with identifying suitable articles to share
  2. Run a script once per hour to generate an updated list of articles also indicating the ones already queued
  3. Partially automate filling-out the Google form based on the RSS feed information
  4. Use a script to build the below bullet list grouped by publication dates of the articles

Each of these steps leverages some aspect of the Google sheet, making everything fall into place nicely so that we can more efficiently identify and share articles we deem interesting. Obviously, there's also still the option to manually add items missed by the already wide-ranging RSS feeds!

Stories we promoted this week, by publication date:

Before March 10

March 10

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Skeptical Science New Research for Week #11 2024

Posted on 14 March 2024 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack

Open access notables

A Glimpse into the Future: The 2023 Ocean Temperature and Sea Ice Extremes in the Context of Longer-Term Climate Change, Kuhlbrodt et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society:

In the year 2023, we have seen extraordinary extrema in high sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Atlantic and in low sea ice extent in the Southern Ocean, outside the 4σ envelope of the 1982–2011 daily time series. Earth’s net global energy imbalance (12 months up to September 2023) amounts to +1.9 W m−2 as part of a remarkably large upward trend, ensuring further heating of the ocean. However, the regional radiation budget over the North Atlantic does not show signs of a suggested significant step increase from less negative aerosol forcing since 2020. While the temperature in the top 100 m of the global ocean has been rising in all basins since about 1980, specifically the Atlantic basin has continued to further heat up since 2016, potentially contributing to the extreme SST. Similarly, salinity in the top 100 m of the ocean has increased in recent years specifically in the Atlantic basin, and in addition in about 2015 a substantial negative trend for sea ice extent in the Southern Ocean began. Analyzing climate and Earth system model simulations of the future, we find that the extreme SST in the North Atlantic and the extreme in Southern Ocean sea ice extent in 2023 lie at the fringe of the expected mean climate change for a global surface-air temperature warming level (GWL) of 1.5°C, and closer to the average at a 3.0°C GWL. Understanding the regional and global drivers of these extremes is indispensable for assessing frequency and impacts of similar events in the coming years.

[Already. Bold ours]

Mapping of sea ice concentration using the NASA NIMBUS 5 Electrically Scanning Microwave Radiometer data from 1972–1977, Kolbe et al., Earth System Science Data:

We find that our sea ice extent in the Arctic and Antarctic in the 1970s is generally higher than those available from the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC), which were derived from the same ESMR dataset, with mean differences of 240 000 and 590 000 km2, respectively. When comparing monthly sea ice extents, the largest differences reach up to 2 million km2. Such large differences cannot be explained by the different grids and land masks of the datasets alone and must therefore also result from the differences in data filtering and algorithms, such as the dynamical tie points and atmospheric correction.

[Combined with the non-stationary nature of the "baseline" ice extent used to compute anomalies: where do we actually stand?]

How far can low emission retrofit of terraced housing in Northern Ireland go?, James et al., Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability:

This paper investigates the potential of retrofit to reduce and limit lifecycle GHG emissions resulting from an existing house, typical of one of the predominant housing typologies in Northern Ireland. Through the use of lifecycle assessment a range of retrofit scenarios are considered for an early 20th century, solid wall, terraced house, to understand the impacts of retrofit on lifecycle emissions. A range of retrofit scenarios were modelled and simulated, considering both embodied and operational emissions over the building's lifetime, to understand how net emissions can be reduced. The results show that although fabric and some technological measures can reduce emissions by over 60% when applied in isolation, a holistic approach is required to achieve the greatest reductions. Although operation remains the largest single source of emissions, the results also show the importance of taking a holistic approach to the assessment of retrofit with varying lifecycle stages responsible for considerable emissions. It is seen that emissions reductions of up to 99% may be possible when taking a holistic approach to retrofit and its assessment, considering whole-life emissions.

Living in the ‘Blue Zone’ of a sea-level rise inundation map: Community perceptions of coastal flooding in King Salmon, California, Richmond & Kunkel Kunkel, Climate Risk Management:

This paper uses the example of King Salmon, CA – a rural, low-income residential area projected to be one of the most at risk to SLR on the US West Coast – to examine how a community responds to external projections showing SLR risk to their homes and businesses. Through interviews with 17 King Salmon community members and observation of a county-hosted ‘communities at risk’ workshop, we examined the community’s social context, their past experiences with flooding, and their reaction to SLR projection maps including what next steps they would like to see taken. Residents expressed a strong connection to the place, noting that it is one of the few affordable places to live on the coast in California. We found that residents already live with regular flooding during larger tides of the year and have taken steps to adapt. We observed a strong generational component in responses to projection maps with many older respondents believing or hoping that they would die before the biggest impacts from SLR arrived. Residents expressed a lack of faith in government to address flooding concerns both at present and into the future, noting that general maintenance issues have gone unaddressed for decades. Many residents interviewed and observed seemed open or at least resigned to the possibility of relocation at a future undetermined time.

From this week's government/NGO section: 

Climate change opinion and recent presidential electionsBurgess et al., Center for Social and Environmental Futures, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder:

The authors review patterns of climate change opinion and polarization and estimate the effect of climate change opinion on recent U.S. presidential elections. They found that climate change opinion has had a significant and growing effect on voting that favors the Democrats and is large enough to be pivotal to the outcomes of close elections. They project that climate change opinion probably cost Republicans the 2020 presidential election, all else being equal.

The AI Threats to Climate ChangeClimate Action Against Disinformation, Check My Adds, Friends of the Earth, Global Action Plan, Greenpeace, and Kairos:

Silicon Valley and Wall Street love to hype artificial intelligence (AI). The more it’s used, they say, the more diseases we’ll cure, the fewer errors we’ll make—and the lower emissions will go. But there are two significant and immediate dangers posed by AI that are much less discussed: 1) the vast increase in energy and water consumption required by AI systems like ChatGPT; and 2) the threat of AI turbocharging disinformation—on a topic already rife with anti-science lies and funded by fossil fuel companies and their networks.

128 articles in 62 journals by 767 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

Albedo-Induced Global Warming Potential Following Disturbances in Global Temperate and Boreal Forests, Zhu et al., 10.2139/ssrn.4435283

The role of interdecadal climate oscillations in driving Arctic atmospheric river trends, Ma et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-024-45159-5

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Cartoons: ‘At least I didn’t make things awkward’

Posted on 13 March 2024 by Guest Author

This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Tom Toro

Tom Toro is a cartoonist and author. He has published over 200 cartoons in The New Yorker since 2010. His cartoons appear in Playboy, the Paris Review, the New York Times, American Bystander, and elsewhere.

A cartoon with a left and a right panel. The left panel is people walking in the woods. One is thinking, "i really want to talk about cliamte change but it feels uncomfortable." In the right panel, the same people are crawling through a burning forest and the person is thinking "Well, at least I didn't make things awkward."

Related: What 10 EV lovers from around the world say about their cars

Related: How to speak with your family and friends about environmental issues

Related: Does recycling actually help the climate?

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At a glance - The albedo effect and global warming

Posted on 12 March 2024 by John Mason, BaerbelW

On February 14, 2023 we announced our Rebuttal Update Project. This included an ask for feedback about the added "At a glance" section in the updated basic rebuttal versions. This weekly blog post series highlights this new section of one of the updated basic rebuttal versions and serves as a "bump" for our ask. This week features "The albedo effect and global warming". More will follow in the upcoming weeks. Please follow the Further Reading link at the bottom to read the full rebuttal and to join the discussion in the comment thread there.

Fact-Myth-Box

At a glance

What is albedo? It is an expression of how much sunshine is reflected by a surface. The word stems from the Latin for 'whiteness'. Albedo is expressed on a scale from 0 to 1, zero being a surface that absorbs everything and 1 being a surface that reflects everything. Most everyday surfaces lie somewhere in between.

An easy way to think about albedo is the difference between wearing a white or a black shirt on a cloudless summer's day. The white shirt makes you feel more comfortable, whereas in the black one you'll cook. That difference is because paler surfaces reflect more sunshine whereas darker ones absorb a lot of it, heating you up.

Solar energy reaching the top of our atmosphere hardly varies at all. How that energy interacts with the planet, though, does vary. This is because the reflectivity of surfaces can change.

Arctic sea-ice provides an example of albedo-change. A late spring snowstorm covers the ice with a sparkly carpet of new snow. That pristine snow can reflect up to 90% of inbound sunshine. But during the summer it warms up and the new snow melts away. The remaining sea-ice has a tired, mucky look to it and can only reflect some 50% of incoming sunshine. It absorbs the rest and that absorbed energy helps the sea-ice to melt even more. If it melts totally, you are left with the dark surface of the ocean. That can only reflect around 6% of the incoming sunshine.

That example shows that albedo-change is not a forcing. That's the first big mistake in this myth. Instead it is a very good example of a climate feedback process. It is occurring in response to an external climate forcing - the increased greenhouse effect caused by our carbon emissions. Due to that forcing, the Arctic is warming quickly and snow/ice coverage shows a long-term decrease. Less reflective surfaces become uncovered, leading to more absorption of sunshine and more energy goes into the system. It's a self-reinforcing process.

If you look at satellite images of the planet, you will notice the clouds in weather-systems appear bright. Cloud-tops have a high albedo but it varies depending on the type of cloud. Wispy high clouds do not reflect as much incoming sunshine as do dense low-level cloud-decks.

Since the early 2000s we have been able to measure the amount of energy reflected back to space through sophisticated instruments aboard satellites. Recently published data (2021) indicate planetary albedo, although highly variable, is showing an overall slow decrease. The main cause is thought to be warming of parts of the Pacific Ocean leading to less coverage of those reflective low-level cloud-decks, but it's early days yet.

Albedo is an important cog in the climate gearbox. It appears to be in a long-term slow decline but varies a lot over shorter periods. That 'noise' makes it unscientific to cite shorter observation-periods. Conclusive climatological trend-statements are generally based on at least 30 years of observations, not the last half-decade.

Please use this form to provide feedback about this new "At a glance" section. Read a more technical version below or dig deeper via the tabs above!


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Trump election win could add 4bn tonnes to US emissions by 2030

Posted on 11 March 2024 by Guest Author

This is a re-post from Carbon Brief

A victory for Donald Trump in November’s presidential election could lead to an additional 4bn tonnes of US emissions by 2030 compared with Joe Biden’s plans, Carbon Brief analysis reveals.

This extra 4bn tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2e) by 2030 would cause global climate damages worth more than $900bn, based on the latest US government valuations.

For context, 4GtCO2e is equivalent to the combined annual emissions of the EU and Japan, or the combined annual total of the world’s 140 lowest-emitting countries.

Put another way, the extra 4GtCO2e from a second Trump term would negate – twice over – all of the savings from deploying wind, solar and other clean technologies around the world over the past five years.

If Trump secures a second term, the US would also very likely miss its global climate pledge by a wide margin, with emissions only falling to 28% below 2005 levels by 2030. The US’s current target under the Paris Agreement is to achieve a 50-52% reduction by 2030.

Carbon Brief’s analysis is based on an aggregation of modelling by various US research groups. It highlights the significant impact of the Biden administration’s climate policies. This includes the Inflation Reduction Act – which Trump has pledged to reverse – along with several other policies.

The findings are subject to uncertainty around economic growth, fuel and technology prices, the market response to incentives and the extent to which Trump is able to roll back Biden’s policies.

The analysis might overstate the impact Trump could have on US emissions, if some of Biden’s policies prove hard to unpick – or if subnational climate action accelerates.

Equally, it might understate Trump’s impact. For example, his pledge to “drill, baby, drill” is not included within the analysis and would likely raise US and global emissions further through the increased extraction and burning of oil, gas and coal.

Also not included are the potential for Biden to add new climate policies if he wins a second term, nor the risk that some of his policies will be weakened, delayed or hit by legal challenges.

Regardless of the precise impact, a second Trump term that successfully dismantles Biden’s climate legacy would likely end any global hopes of keeping global warming below 1.5C.

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2024 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #10

Posted on 10 March 2024 by BaerbelW, Doug Bostrom

A listing of 35 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, March 3, 2024 thru Sat, March 9, 2024.

Story(s) of the week

Two stories on one topic inexorably lead to a third story.

Fury after Exxon chief says public to blame for climate failures in The Guardian provides straight journalistic coverage of Exxon CEO Darren Woods' remarkable implication that consumers are too stupid to understand or want sustainable energy supplies, and that anyway permanent, modernized energy is not profitable enough for Exxon or its shareholders. Backlash ensued. Bill McKibben's The most epic (and literal) gaslighting of all time is exemplary of critical analysis catalyzed by the Exxon top dog's clumsy speecha surgical dissection of Woods' anachronistic and strikingly antisocial thinking and expression. 

Where's this fracas going to end? Ultimately the whole travesty of industry procrastination, deceit and naked unheeding self-interest is headed to courts of law, of course— as always happens in cases of reckless endangerment. A tidal wave of accountability for fossil fuel industry intransigence is beginning to pile up in the shoaling waters of our and the fossil fuel industry's immediate future, as described in Grist and Big Oil faces a flood of climate lawsuits - and they`re moving closer to trial. Meanwhile, Darren Woods seems to be helping set the mood in the room when it comes to judgment of a track record of industry alienation from broader human society and its interests. It's a puzzling posture. 

Stories we promoted this week, by publication date:

Before March 3

March 3

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Skeptical Science New Research for Week #10 2024

Posted on 7 March 2024 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack

Open acccess notables

Projections of an ice-free Arctic Ocean, Jahn et al., Nature Reviews Earth & Environment:

Observed Arctic sea ice losses are a sentinel of anthropogenic climate change. These reductions are projected to continue with ongoing warming, ultimately leading to an ice-free Arctic (sea ice area 2). In this Review, we synthesize understanding of the timing and regional variability of such an ice-free Arctic. In the September monthly mean, the earliest ice-free conditions (the first single occurrence of an ice-free Arctic) could occur in 2020–2030s under all emission trajectories and are likely to occur by 2050. However, daily September ice-free conditions are expected approximately 4 years earlier on average, with the possibility of preceding monthly metrics by 10 years. Consistently ice-free September conditions (frequent occurrences of an ice-free Arctic) are anticipated by mid-century (by 2035–2067), with emission trajectories determining how often and for how long the Arctic could be ice free. 

Sustained growth of sulfur hexafluoride emissions in China inferred from atmospheric observations, An et al., Nature Communications:

Sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) is a potent greenhouse gas. Here we use long-term atmospheric observations to determine SF6 emissions from China between 2011 and 2021, which are used to evaluate the Chinese national SF6 emission inventory and to better understand the global SF6 budget. SF6 emissions in China substantially increased from 2.6 (2.3-2.7, 68% uncertainty) Gg yr−1 in 2011 to 5.1 (4.8-5.4) Gg yr−1 in 2021. The increase from China is larger than the global total emissions rise, implying that it has offset falling emissions from other countries.

The rise, fall and rebirth of ocean carbon sequestration as a climate 'solution', De Pryck & Boettcher, Global Environmental Change:

Using an innovative quali-quantitative methodology which combines scientometrics with document analysis, observational fieldwork, and interviews, we outline three historical phases in the history of ocean carbon sequestration that follow recurring cycles of hype, controversy and disappointment. We argue that the most recent hype around ocean carbon sequestration was not triggered by a technological breakthrough or a reduction in scientific uncertainty, but by new socio-technical configurations and coalitions. We conclude by showing that how climate change solutions are put on the agenda and become legitimised is both a scientific and political process, linked to how science frames the climate crisis, and ultimately, its governance.

“In the end, the story of climate change was one of hope and redemption”: ChatGPT’s narrative on global warming, Sommer & von Querfurth, Ambio:

This paper examines the narrative of ChatGPT's stories on climate change. Our explorative analysis reveals that ChatGPT’s stories on climate change show a relatively uniform structure and similar content. Generally, the narrative is in line with scientific knowledge on climate change; the stories convey no significant misinformation. However, specific topics in current debates on global warming are conspicuously missing. According to the ChatGPT narrative, humans as a species are responsible for climate change and specific economic activities or actors associated with carbon emissions play no role. Analogously, the social structuration of vulnerability to climate impacts and issues of climate justice are hardly addressed. ChatGPT’s narrative consists of de-politicized stories that are highly optimistic about technological progress.

Increasing Flood Hazard Posed by Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification in a Changing Climate, Lockwood et al., Geophysical Research Letters:

Tropical cyclones (TCs) that rapidly intensify (RI) before hitting land are typically hard to predict and cause immense destruction. We used synthetic TCs downscaled from global climate models and physics-based hazard models to examine the dangers posed by these RI storms in historical and future climates. The TC simulation shows that, as the climate warms, the number of TCs undergoing rapid intensification could rise substantially in the North Atlantic region. Additionally, the likelihood of rapid intensification within 24 hr of landfall significantly increases. These TCs are much riskier, particularly in terms of heavy rainfall, even when compared to equally strong TCs that did not rapidly intensify. Consequently, 100-year rainfall and storm tide levels will greatly increase under climate change, largely due to the increase of RI events in the future.

Past and Projected Future Droughts in the Upper Colorado River Basin, McCabe et al., Geophysical Research Letters:

A long and severe drought has affected much of the western United States since about the year 2000 CE, including the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB). Comparing this drought to past UCRB droughts (during 1 CE through 2021 CE), we find that the 2000–2021 drought is not the most severe UCRB drought. The results also suggest that natural variability combined with projected climate warming could result in UCRB drought events that are more severe than any drought since 1 CE.

From this week's government/NGO section: 

Many newly labeled USDA climate-smart conservation practices lack climate benefitsAnne Schechinger, Environmental Working Group:

Newly designated U.S Department of Agriculture's climate-smart conservation practices likely do not reduce agriculture’s greenhouse gas emissions. Only practices that reduce emissions are eligible for $19.5 billion in 2022 Inflation Reduction Act funds. The new designations make it look, erroneously, like a lot of money is going to climate-smart agriculture. Against the backdrop of the deepening climate crisis, the Department of Agriculture recently added 15 Environmental Quality Incentives Program, or EQIP, practices to its climate-smart conservation list – but many likely do little or nothing to help in the climate fight.

Rooftop solar on the rise. Small solar projects are delivering 10 times as much power as a decade agoDutzik et al, Environment America Research & Policy Center and Frontier Group:

Small-scale solar energy – of which rooftop solar is the largest component – is growing rapidly in the U.S., producing 10 times as much power in 2022 as a decade earlier. Small-scale solar generated enough electricity in 2022 to power 5.7 million typical American homes – more than all the homes in the state of Pennsylvania. The U.S. has only scratched the surface of rooftop solar’s potential. Rooftop solar has the technical potential to generate electricity equivalent to about 45% of all electricity sales in the U.S. at 2022 demand levels. In 2022, the U.S. only generated about 1.5% of all the electricity it used from rooftop solar.

150 articles in 74 journals by 907 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

Decoding low-frequency climate variations: A case study on ENSO and ocean surface warming, Kallummal, Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2024.101453

Robust Polar Amplification in Ice-Free Climates Relies on Ocean Heat Transport and Cloud Radiative Effects, England & Feldl, Journal of Climate Open Access pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0151.1

Spatiotemporal heterogeneity in global urban surface warming, Ge et al., Remote Sensing of Environment 10.1016/j.rse.2024.114081

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All this climate data is wild

Posted on 6 March 2024 by Guest Author

This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Kristen Pope

An elephant seal dives deeper than 1,000 meters below Antarctic waters with a tiny tag affixed to its fur, helping scientists collect valuable data about climate change. In Mongolia, pigeons fly around the capital city of Ulaanbaatar, with sensors on their bodies that help gauge air pollution.

A recent Nature Climate Change article notes that more than 1,000 animal species have worn sensors to gather data in places where measurement has always been difficult. In this way, elephants, wildebeests, caribou, pigeons, seals, and other animals have helped fill gaps in knowledge of our changing climate.

Millions of observations have been collected using these methods, according to the paper by Diego Ellis-Soto, Ph.D. candidate at Yale University, and his co-authors. It’s a much-needed supplement to data collected from sensors connected to objects such as ocean buoys, Earth-orbiting satellites, and terrestrial weather stations. These sensors provide valuable data but there are too few of them to gather sufficient data points to reflect microclimates and short-term patterns associated with climate change. Meanwhile, satellites have limited resolution and can be thwarted by clouds.

“Animals overall can go to places that are very hard to reach, such as polar regions on the ocean, tropical rainforests, tops of mountains, remote Pacific islands,” Ellis-Soto says. “So they can fill important gaps in our meteorological weather forecasting system. For example, there are few weather stations at elevations above 2,000 meters, but mountains are some of the most complex regions for predicting weather and are experiencing rapid changes under climate change.”

Animals have collected millions of observations about everything from air and water temperature to wind speed and direction to sea salinity. They have helped scientists learn about turbulence, air pollution, species movement and locations, and more. Animals can also be present for extreme events like heat waves, which Ellis-Soto notes are difficult to design experiments around.

photo of a long-necked bird in flightA white stork (Ciconia ciconia) fitted with a transmitter carrying piece of plastic. (Photo credit: Charles J. Sharp / CC BY-NC 4.0Credit: Charles J Sharp.+44 7917562756.+

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At a glance - Human activity is driving retreat of arctic sea ice

Posted on 5 March 2024 by John Mason, BaerbelW

On February 14, 2023 we announced our Rebuttal Update Project. This included an ask for feedback about the added "At a glance" section in the updated basic rebuttal versions. This weekly blog post series highlights this new section of one of the updated basic rebuttal versions and serves as a "bump" for our ask. This week features "Human activity is driving retreat of Arctic sea ice". More will follow in the upcoming weeks. Please follow the Further Reading link at the bottom to read the full rebuttal and to join the discussion in the comment thread there.

Fact Myth Box

At a glance

The Northwest Passage is the sea route around the waters off northern Canada and Alaska. Its discovery and eventual navigation involves a fascinating tale of endeavour, adventure and tragedy, too, for some expeditions ended in disaster.

Of the many mishaps, by far the worst was that which befell Sir John Franklin and the 128-strong crews of his two ships: they were last heard of in 1845. It took many expeditions and almost ten years before their fate was finally pieced together. One thing became clear by then: the Northwest Passage does not take prisoners. Yet at the same time, those searches for Franklin and his crew generated lots of new chart cover of the waters between the islands making up the Canadian Archipelago.

Complete navigation of the Northwest Passage was finally accomplished by Norwegian explorer Roald Amundsen between 1903 and 1906. Amundsen's boat was relatively small at 47 tons and 70 feet long but usefully it had a very shallow draft. That meant it was able to pass through areas where a bigger boat would have fouled the bottom, thus offering a wider choice of courses to take. Amundsen's route was criticised in some circles because of that factor - what was the point of making the crossing if bigger freight ships could not? But Amundsen was motivated not by money but by science.

With his experienced crew of six, they spent two winters off the eastern side of King William Island, about halfway through the archipelago, collecting data on Earth's magnetic pole and local meteorology, traded with the Inuit and developed hunting and fishing skills. Leaving there in August 1905, they reached Nome, Alaska twelve months later. The ice had pinned them in for a third winter. There was not to be a single-season crossing for another 38 years, when Sergeant Henry Larsen of the Royal Canadian Mounted Police managed it in a schooner.

So yes, while the Northwest Passage was successfully navigated before 2007, the current state of the sea ice means that the picture is now quite different. Part of the reason for that is down to the age of much of the Arctic sea ice today. Sea ice that has yet to experience a summer melting season is known as first-year ice. It's relatively thin, fragile and more vulnerable to melting compared to the ice that has withstood one or more melting-seasons, known as multiyear ice. Multiyear ice can even give a good ice-breaker a run for its money. But now there's a lot less of it.

During many recent summers the Northwest Passage has become open: freight ships and even cruise liners have steamed through. That doesn't mean it's risk-free of course - there are still icebergs to watch out for. Nevertheless, it's getting to the point where there are various concerns being voiced about the number of ships passing through the area, on both ecological and political grounds. For the Northwest Passage, global warming really is a mixed blessing.

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Great Lakes ice coverage hits a record low

Posted on 4 March 2024 by Guest Author

This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Jeff Masters

Ice extent on the Great Lakes hit a record low February 8 and has remained at record low levels as of February 16 as a result of the warmest winter on record over much of the region. For the U.S. portion of the Great Lakes region, the November 30-February 14 period was mostly between the first- and third-warmest on record (Figure 1). The Canadian portion of the Great Lakes was also record-warm to near record-warm. In Chicago, 87% of the days from December 1-February 14 had average- to above-average temperatures.

map of the Midwest U.S. showing temperatures well above average in the states surrounding the Great LakesFigure 1. Ranking of Midwest U.S. average temperatures for November 30, 2023-February 14, 2024, for the period beginning in 1893. The region surrounding the Great Lakes was mostly between the first- and third-warmest on record. (Image credit: Iowa Environmental Mesonet)

A 10-day cold snap in mid-January in the region was not intense enough to allow much ice to grow on the Great Lakes, and January ice extent was just 6% of the lake surface, compared to the 50-year average of 18%. This was the ninth-lowest January ice level on record. If the peak ice coverage of 18% on January 22 winds up being the winter maximum, 2024 will end up with the fourth-lowest maximum extent on record, behind 2002 (12%), 2012 (13%), and 1998 (14%).

As of February 15, the Great Lakes Ice Tracker reported that ice coverage on the lakes was just 4% — about 10 times lower than average. The barest ice cupboard was being kept in Lake Erie, which had zero ice cover, compared to the average of over 65% expected for the date. With the forecast for the remainder of February calling for mostly above-average temperatures, ice cover on the Great Lakes is likely to be at record- to near-record low levels for the rest of the ice season.

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