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Comments 451 to 500:

  1. michael sweet at 08:54 AM on 22 April 2018
    Models are unreliable

    Your "luke warmers" used to argue that there was no warming.  They changed their hats when it became impossible to continue with their past lies.  They continue to lie to the public about the changes expected from warming.  Look at the briefs submitted to the court by deniers in the case of young people suing the government.  You cannot concede the possibility of sea level rise contained in the US Climate Change report which is described by its author as "very conservative".

    The real difference between warmists and luke warmers is that the luke warmers are deliberately lying to the public about the dangers we face.

    The models can be falsified in myriad ways.  You are just making excuses.  The problem is that you are listening to oil company lobbyists and not scientists.  There is much more than temperature modeled.  We can compare the models to ocean heat, atmospheric humidity, rainfall patterns, drought predictions, extreme storm predictions, floods, temperature changes in different areas, river flow, and many more.  All these data points give us evidence of the accuracy of the models. 

    We already see the stronger storms, drought, flooding and sea level rise.  You want to wait and see if it really gets as much worse as scientists have projected?  You realize the it will continue to get worse after 2100 in any case?  You want to wait until civilization collapses before you take any action?

    The fact that Arhennius in 1896 made projections that are still in the range of what is expected tells us that scientists are close to the mark.  How long do you need to wait?  It has already been 120 years, why would we need to wait another 30?  James Hansen testified to congfress in 1989, 30 years ago.   Fossil fuel intrests used exactly your argument 30 years ago.  Now that the future has realized we see that Hansens projections were very accurate and you say we need another 50 years to wait?  Does that make sense?

    You are making excuses so that you can make money while everyone younger than you will suffer.  10 years ago scientists did not use the term carastrophic global warming and the deniers (luke warmers do not exist) used that term to insult scientists.  Today scientists warn of catastrophic damages and deniers say it will not be too bad.  The consequences have gotton so much worse in the past ten years that it is no longer extreme for scientists to warn of castrophe.

    Scientists work for 150 years to develop the knowledge to project the future climate.  You do not like the projections because it means you will make less money.  You say we will just have to wait and see if it is really that bad.  There is a consensus that warming over 2C could threaten the collapse of civilization and you say we should wait and see what happens at 4C?  That is insane.

    You produce no peer reviewed papers to support you absurd claims.  You dismiss Stern, Hansen and Jacobson with a handwave.  You have only the opinion of a lawyer who invests heavily in fossil fuels.  You ignore the evidence you are presented.  Why do you waste our time here when you do not care about the evidence?

    Arguing that  you do not understand the consequences of material that you refuse to read is not rational.  

    Please do not insult us here again with your comparisons of "luke warmers" and scientists.

  2. michael sweet at 08:24 AM on 22 April 2018
    New paper shows that renewables can supply 100% of all energy (not just electricity)


    The papers I have referred you to claim that we can convert to 100% renewables by 2050 if we try hard. 

    If we continue to accept the lowest possible estimates for possible damages and the fossil fuel industry estimates for the cost of switching to renewables than it will appear to be difficult.

    Both Jacobson and Smart Energy Europe estimate that it will be cheaper to switch to renewables than to continue to use fossil fuels.  Economists like the Stern Report say it will be much cheaper to switch to renewable energy than to continue ot use fossil fuels (and the cost of renewables had shrunk dramatically since then).

    We have to decide: do we listen to neutral scientists whose primary care is the future of their families about what is best to do or do we listen to oil industry executives who only care about how big their bonuses this quarter are?

    Plans like those I have linked exist for all the countries of the world.  The fossil fuel industry crying for farmers in India is just so much BS.  Look at how many millions of Indians die every year from fossil fuel pollution.

  3. One Planet Only Forever at 05:10 AM on 22 April 2018
    2018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #14

    rt Vandelay@,
    I consider a considerable part of the “roots of evil action development and any associated resistance to correction” to be socioeconomic-political systems that encourage or tempt people to be more selfish than altruistic or reward harmful selfishness.
    Good and valuable actions are undeniably actions that help sustainably advance all of humanity to a better future. Developing such actions requires people to be motivated to help others without expecting a personal reward. They may not get to personally experience the benefits of the better future for humanity that their actions support. And the more fortunate people will have to sacrifice some opportunity for personal benefit when it is understood that such Private Interests are not helping to develop sustainable improvements for the future of all of humanity.
    So I do not consider the burning of fossil fuels to be the root of all evil. It is only a significant example of the developments occurring because of what I consider to be a significant part of the roots of evil.
    And I do not wish to just “assign blame”. I consider Truth and Reconciliation to be an essential part of the actions required to effectively correct inappropriately developed beliefs and actions. So I am pointing out the need to challenge unjustified excusing of the burning of fossil fuels (As stated on Einstein's memorial at the National Academy of Science: “The right to search for truth implies also a duty; one must not conceal any part of what one has recognized to be true.”).
    Please correct me, help me be more aware and better understand, if any of the following points I have made in this comment string are not correct efforts to raise awareness and better understanding of what is going on:

    • the continuation and expansion of burning fossil fuels is a damaging unsustainable geoengineering activity that Global leaders (elected representatives and the wealthy winners of economic competitions) have failed to provide responsible leadership to sustainably solve or correct
    • promoting global geoengineering actions as solutions to the irresponsible and unjustified increased harm of burning fossil fuels is undeniably more irresponsible pursuits of excuses for those who irresponsibly continue to try to get away with benefiting from an understood to be damaging and ultimately unsustainable activity
    • burning fossil fuels cannot be proven to be providing any sustainable benefit for future generations of humanity, its continuation and expansion is only doing more harm
    • burning fossil fuels not only creates harmful excess GHGs resulting in rapid global scale climate geoengineering, activities related to it create large scale local water contamination and air pollution and destruction of developed ecosystems
    • the climate change impacts from the unsustainable burning of non-renewable ancient buried hydrocarbons are unpredictably disruptive to the intricately developed inter-related life ecosystems on this planet
    • rapidly curtailing the selfish pursuits of benefit from the burning of fossil fuels is the only reliable way to develop a better future, a way to reduce the uncertainty regarding the magnitude and types of challenges that future generations will face. That understanding was well developed in the 1980s and has become even more certain since that time.
    • global geoengineering to specifically remove CO2 from the atmosphere is an activity that can and should be developed to reduce the excess harmful impacts already created, even if other 'cheaper and quicker' geoengineering options to appear to 'solve the problem that is being created by the ultimately unsustainable and unhelpful activity' appear to exist.

    As a final point, pursuing Universal Acceptance is a bit of a Fool's Game. Increased Acceptance is the best that can be hoped for. The people wanting to continue to behave understandably unacceptably will claim the need for Their Interests to be Balanced with “Other Concerns”. That is essentially compromising on what is understood to be the required correction of behaviour because some people do not want to give up on their understandably unacceptable pursuits of Private Interest. It can also be claimed to be the “pragmatic thing to do”. Those types of claims point out the unacceptable results of allowing popularity or profitability to determine acceptability is systems that tempt people to be more selfish and less tolerant of diversity. They also expose the twisted ways that terms like Balance, Fairness, Compromise, and Pragmatism can be abused to excuse understandably unacceptable desired beliefs.

    The Truth and Reconciliation processes of raising awareness and better understanding of the unacceptability of what was/is really going on is important. And that includes pointing out what has been and still is unacceptable, even if doing so increases the resistance to correction among the portion of humanity that has developed a significant Private Interest in “not being corrected”.

    As John Stuart Mill warned in “On Liberty”, “If society lets a considerable number of its members grow up mere children, incapable of being acted on by rational consideration of distant motives, society has itself to blame for the consequences.”

    Before John Stuart Mill's warning, Thomas Jefferson said “I am not an advocate for frequent changes in laws and constitutions. But laws and institutions must go hand in hand with the progress of the human mind. As that becomes more developed, more enlightened, as new discoveries are made, new truths discovered and manners and opinions change, with the change of circumstances, institutions must advance also to keep pace with the times.”

    The understanding that societies leaders (the rich and influential) must help the entire population be more correctly aware and better understand what is going on and help sustainably improve the future for all of humanity is not new. Systems that develop unhelpful leaders need to be corrected. And that correction requires the unacceptability of what has developed, and who is behaving unacceptably, to be openly declared rather than being excused due to misguided beliefs/claims about the need or right for “Balance of all Private Interests” or “Fairness to all Private Interests” or “Compromise of what is understood to be true to accommodate all other Private Interests” or “Pragmatism delaying correction due to a variety of Private Interests”.

    Some things are understandably the more correct and justified emergent knowledge, and they should not be compromised out of a misguided sense of a need for Balance or Fairness or Pragmatism to appease understandably unacceptable developed Private Interests/Beliefs.

  4. Models are unreliable

    michael sweet

    Here is my comment which was snipped for being off-topic.  

    I think the real difference between what I will call the "warmists" versus the "luke warmers" is not really a difference on the science. Both sides accept that the planet is getting warmer and CO2 emissions constitute at least 50% of the warming (with the difference largely related to whether there are 60 year oscillations of the AMO). The real difference between the warmists and the luke warmers is a disagreement on the ability of the models to accurately predict what will happen after 2050. 

    But is that not what this all comes down to? We cannot agree on: 1. whether the temperature increases in RCP 8.5 are realistic based upon the limited ability of the models to replicate the climate 50 years into the future; and 2. whether the assumptions of fossil fuel use in RCP 8.5 are realistic. As well, all the "scary stuff" in the models seems to take place from 2050 onwards so we really cannot even point to any spectactular  failure of the models today. The models are not falsifiable because we have to wait 30-50 years.

    It is true that Einstein's theory of relativity was only "proven" many years later (I cannot remember the comet's path which seemed to prove it correct) but in that case the world was not asked to change its source of energy over a relatively short time period given that presently approximately 85% of our energy needs are provided by fossil fuels and less than 5% by wind and solar power.

    Moderator Response:

    [DB] Sloganeering and blatant handwaving snipped.  Either bring actual credible evidence to support your contentions or acknowledge that these assertions by you are simply your uninformed opinions.  A number of posts at SkS already detail the accuracy of model projections vs actual performance (like herehere and here).  Indeed, there is a plethora of posts examining just how well models as far back as even the 1980s and 1970s have performed.

    Models and observations

    BEST Model performance

    CMIP3 models are spot-on

    CMIP5 models are spot-on

    You are welcome to make your case using actual evidence.  You are not welcome to spread misinformation or to represent your opinions as anything other than that (opinions); without credible evidence to support them, they will be disregarded and dismissed if they differ from established science and scientific research.  I'm not going to bother to warn you further as the fact is: you've been given ample warnings and simply ignored them.

  5. What scientists SHOULD talk about: their personal stories

    You know as a graduated student, I can tell you where is the big problem. Our education! We don't pay any attention (I mean serious) to the environment. Look at all, this service who offer you to "do my essay online". The main theme is just ridiculous!
    PC, Internet, Films, and other and only about 1 to 10 essays will be about nature. New generation are don't even interesting about how to help our planet, they have Instagram and other stuff to do.
    We should talk about our environment a lot more! We should get teens and adults' interest.

  6. Climate Science Denial Explained: Tactics of Denial

    nigelj @9

    Climate change denial is approaching the point of having to rewrite fundamental scientific theories that have been demonstrated over and over to have very high confidence. It's ridiculous to the point of having to claim that the same quantum theories that allow semi-cnductor transistors to operate in such a way as to enable all modern electronics suddenly break down when they are applied to describing why carbon dioxide is able to absorb heat when molecular nitrogen and oxygen aren't.

    It requires far more complexity to make the deniers case work than it does the science of human forced climate change. Which isn't separate at all from the main body of scientific knowledge and discovery.

    It is only mindless repetition paid for at a massive level that allows denial any visibility at all.

  7. New paper shows that renewables can supply 100% of all energy (not just electricity)

    michael sweet @ 86

    Happy to continue the discussion here.  Obviously we have previously discussed the Jacobson paper at some length (and some of the peer-reviewed criticisms of it) but your point is well-taken that all proposed 100% renewable energy solutions have to have come up with an answer for the agricultural sector.    

     Jacobson's study was based on the United States.  Somewhere else I provided a interview with an wind and solar expert in California who had advised the California power authority who felt we could only realistically get to 80-20 in the US.   But this is in the United States and even with his interview I had no sense of how long that would take even if we had the Democrats in power.

    Even in North America this is not going to be cheap.  I recently walked into the Tesla dealership to see how much my sister's Model X (I think that is the new one) is going to cost her.  I thought she had told me ballpark $35,000 Cdn.  My understanding is that by the time you walk out of the dealership you will be looking at somewhere between $50-60,000 (before taxes).  Elon is not appealing to the working man.

    But then we move to the Chinese or Indian farmer.  Where is the grid system that Jacobson works on in his US analysis?  Just how many years will it be before China has moved from coal to wind, solar and nuclear energy sufficiently to allow tractors to operate on batteries?  And when are the trains going to be converted to electrically run systems to transport the goods to ships?  And when are the ships going to be converted to electric powered engines?

    I acknowledge that all of this can happen but it will take a lot of time.  

    There is simply no way we can move from ballpark 85% fossil fuel energy production in the world to even 50% let alone 20% as projected for the US by this California expert.  Right now, wind and solar in the world is no more than the source of 5% of the world's energy production.   I think it is more like 2-3% if I am not mistaken.

    I think the real difference between what I will call the "warmists" versus the "luke warmers" is not really a difference on the science. Both sides accept that the planet is getting warmer and CO2 emissions constitute at least 50% of the warming.  The real difference between the warmists and the luke warmers is a disagreement on the ability of the models to accurately predict what will happen after 2050 and therefore how much time we have to deal with the problem.  That is why I personally want to focus on sea level rises based upon observations.  But I guess to continue this discussion we have to move to even another blog.  But is that not what this all comes down to?  We cannot agree on: 1. whether the temperature increases in RCP 8.5 are realistic based upon the limited ability of the models to replicate the climate; and 2. whether the assumptions of fossil fuel use in RCP 8.5 are realistic.   As well, all the "scary stuff" in the models seems to take place from 2050 onwards so we really cannot even point to any spectacular failure of the models today.  The models are not falsifiable because we have to wait 30-50  years for the serious consequences.  Moderator:  If you "snip" this last paragraph for again being off topic could you suggest another thread on models? 

    So much of this comes down to how much can we trust the models.

    Moderator Response:

    [DB] Off-topic, sloganeering and arguments from incredulity snipped.  For SLR discussions, continue using the thread you had been (you know better than to try to throw other threads off-topic).  For models, learn to use the Search function in the upper left corner of every page here and select the most-appropriate thread from the results.

  8. michael sweet at 12:02 PM on 21 April 2018
    New paper shows that renewables can supply 100% of all energy (not just electricity)

    Why don't we shift the discussion of renewable energy to here.  It will be on topic.

  9. michael sweet at 11:46 AM on 21 April 2018
    Sea level rise predictions are exaggerated


    If you had read the reference I gave you to Smart Energy Europe you would see that they proposed using electrofuels.  I.E. they will use electricity from renewable energy to convert CO2 from the air into diesel fuel.  They could also use electric tractors with a teather or batteries, whichever is cheapest.  I think Jacobson proposes electric tractors using batteries. 

    Obviously, everyone who has made an all renewable proposal has something in mind for farm equipment.  Your suggestion that it has not been solved just shows that you have made no effort to read the papers you have been referred to.

    If you do not look for the answers everything is a mystery that cannot be solved.  If you read the background information than we can have a discussion on how to implement the proposed solutions.  Many people have proposed all renewable systems so many different solutions for farm equipment have been suggested.

    You have  spent too much time at fossil fuel investor meetings.  In those meetings they say solar power will never compete with coal.  Solar is currently cheaper than coal and oil fueled electricity in many areas.  Wind and solar are cheaper than gas in some areas.

  10. Sea level rise predictions are exaggerated

    Bob Loblaw @ 87

    As with everything in this world, "The Devil is in the details.".  I would be pleased to carry on this discussion on another thread if the moderator can suggest one.

    The use by the third world of fossil fuels is massive and I have assumed a large portion of this is used in agriculture and the transportation used to deliver those crops to the world.  I would have to start searching for details but this is not a straw man.  Perhaps we can find some information on what percentage of fossil fuel use is agriculture and transportation in third world countries.  I will try to find this out if the moderator can suggest another thread other than sea level rise. 

  11. Sea level rise predictions are exaggerated

    NorrisM: "...just tell me how the Chinese or Indian farmer replaces his diesel tractor."

    Seriously, dude. If you are going to create strawmen that absolutely every use of fossil fuels has to stop, so justification of one use is justification of all, then you are wasting everyone's time.

  12. Climate Science Denial Explained: Tactics of Denial

    nijelj@14, Just to add that I was really only speaking for conservatives in Australia, who are more libertarian than conservatives in the USA. The situation in NZ is no doubt similar.  Conservatives in Australia largely fall within the upper middle class and are more likely to be self employed or employed within senior mangament positions in medeum to large enterprises. Not surprisingly, Australia's conservatives mostly believe in small government too, and from observations they look far less to government for leadership than is the case with the progressive class, and that's not necessarily a bad thing.  But ultimately it's resistance to change that defines a conservative.  That doesn't mean that change isn't possible though. When evidence is clear and compelling that change is for the better a conservative will embrace change.   

  13. Climate Science Denial Explained: Tactics of Denial

    Art Vandelay @13, thanks for the info. on Australia.  I realised you probably knew most of the material I posted. I posted it more for the benefit of anyone else interested as well. Same goes for some of the following.

    The nature of renewable energy means more sharing of resources by the States which suggests a national plan is now appropriate, or alternatively one national lines company perhaps. Britain has sidestepped the political problems and regional control by putting energy planning in the hands of a non partisan body separate from government. They have not had the same level of cost and relaibility  problems as Australia probably as a result. They are also doing better than New Zealand.

    "I mention all of this because I don't believe that a majority of conservative heartland denies climate change, but whether it does or doesn't probably doesn't matter that much anyway"

    I hear you and its a interesting point. I assume you really mean agw climate change. It's complicated, and peoples beliefs might even change almost from day to day depending on who they listen to, and of course you get gradations of belief, for example yes humans are warming the climate, but less than the IPCC predict. But I think this is all still denial of the issue in the end.

    Perhaps more imprtantly is people like Trump and Scott Pruitt and media personalities like Bill O'reilley and other authority fugures claim the science is a fraud and conservative people appear to be very influenced by authority figures whatever they believe internally. Liberals are more argumentative and less likely to follow authority figures (for good or bad). 

    interestingly polls back up what you say on renewable energy. Conservatives are more receptive to this, than to climate science theory. This in turn suggests they might accept the science more than they say when polled, but dont want to admit they accept the science to their peers. 

    I agree part of this is selling the benefits of renewable energy, and I accept conservatives embrace renewable energy to some extent. But you have a couple of problems still in the way of all this.  Firstly the conservative leadership certainly doesn't accept renewable energy. The White House stand firmly opposed to renewables despite their rhetoric, and is even reported to be about to use cold war legislation to enable it to give direct government support to coal. The Republican congress is still luke warm on renewable energy. And as I mentioned authoity figures are important to conservatives. In other words the conservative leadership is not helping as much as it could, even if people on the ground make efforts.

    The Democrat politicians are more supportive of renewables, but not as much as they could be either. It needs much stronger efforts and this will in turn build confidence with ordinary folk.

    And a good acceptance of the science and risks impacts of climate change on humanity will be good motivations to adopt renewable energy even if it does cost slightly more or alternatively requires some small state subsidy. So its important to improve acceptance of the science as much as possible.

    Acceptance of the science has improved in America over the last 20 years although slowly. 

  14. Glacier loss is accelerating because of global warming

    >nigelj - thank you for the glacier/water supply links.  I shall read them in the near future as well as search for more. 

    It is difficult to determine which negative effect of AGW/CC will cause the most damage to human civilization over various time periods, but the cumulative impact will ultimately be devastating. It appears that the distribution of changes in large-scale agricultural productivity might favor Russia while the U.S. suffers - an interesting quirk I was not aware of until recently.

    At age 76, I am alive to witness the slow acceleration of the negative effects of AGW/CC , but the generation after me will likely to be the first to be seriously threatened.  

  15. Climate Science Denial Explained: Tactics of Denial

    nigelj@12, yes all understood. I'm across the detail of the problems here with wind and pv solar etc, and grid reliability issues which are not directly attributed to renewable energy but more the lack of despatchable base load power. So it's an indirect relationship more than a direct one, but people really don't care about the how's or why's. All that matters is that the power is always working, and with a retail price that's stable and affordable.  As we transition to more intermittent renewables there will be many challenges. Politics in this country is interesting because the states themselves control their own energy supplies, and until recently there's been no national energy plan. 

    I mention all of this because I don't believe that a majority of conservative heartland denies climate change, but whether it does or doesn't probably doesn't matter that much anyway. Regardless of political orientation, people won't be hostile to renewable energy if it's able to effectively match traditional sources for price and reliability. If the solution to climate change is renewable energy, as the experts say, then it's simply a matter of selling the benefits of renewable energy. Fwiw, conservative areas in the major cities have all led the way for PV solar installations, so the evidence suggests that conservatives are definitely willing to embrace renewable energy. They already have.         

  16. michael sweet at 21:55 PM on 20 April 2018
    Glacier loss is accelerating because of global warming


    I thought as much.  I posted so the absurd claim that Mt. Hunter was ice free were not left unrebutted on the board.  The paper states that is was very rare (less than one melt day per decade) for Mt Hunter to have any melt at all in the 1600's.  Even if the MWP affected the glacier it would have caused occasional melt, not deglaciation.

  17. Daniel Bailey at 20:52 PM on 20 April 2018
    Glacier loss is accelerating because of global warming

    I wish people would actually read papers they cite.  That paper is entirely consistent with the established phsyics of AGW.

  18. Climate's changed before

    Rates of change is always the concern. The global debate should be about this but it's not because business has already accepted the reality of climate change: everything else is the vagaries of investment.

  19. CO2 effect is saturated

    Daniel, "This page isn't available

    The link you followed may be broken, or the page may have been removed."

  20. Sea level rise predictions are exaggerated

    Norris, you can't just join issues. 

  21. Climate Science Denial Explained: Tactics of Denial

    Art Vandelay @11

    I tend to confine my comments to what I think is driving denialism of the science. We have a whole separate but related issue of peoples concerns about renewable energy, and I agree its reasonable for people to be concerned about reliability and costs (we in Auckland NZ have just had a huge record setting power cut due to an unusually intense low pressure system and its frustrating. It took out numerous power lines).

    However I think the reasons for wind farm problems of reliability in Australia appear related to a political fight on how the electricity system as a whole is designed at a conceptual and market level and how the states share resources, as opposed to the technology of wind farms themselves.

    I know you also had a disastrous storm that caused wind power to be taken off line, but this was due largely to the failure of transmission lines and would have happened with a purely fossil fuel based system. Some software problem with the wind farms did contribute to the problem, and hopefully people appreciate this will sometimes happen with new technology, and the problem was quickly fixed. But clearly too many of these won't be tolerated.

    Increasing electricty prices have a range of causes mostly due to a a failure to invest in enough new generation and issues with transmission lines costs. Renewable electricity itself only accounts for about 16% of increase in prices. I remembered reading this, and found this article below:

    But the bottom line is its not the renewable electricity causing most of the problems. Its politics. And industry lobby groups and conservative leaning political think tank groups falsely blame all the problems on renewable energy ( as described in the article I linked)  and the end result is a very confused and mislead public.

  22. Sea level rise predictions are exaggerated

    scaddenp @ 78

    Can we agree that my reference to .4M by 2100 is the middle ground of the Rholing 2013 paper?  It is not the low end.  It is the "probability maximum".  

    It is so easy to move off from the blog topic of sea rise level but only to reply to your comment regarding my "over-estimate the consequences of proposed action" just tell me how the Chinese or Indian farmer replaces his diesel tractor.  If he has to go back to plowing his fields with animals he will be reduced to the poverty he has just recently been lifted from. 

    Moderator Response:

    [DB] Off-topic snipped.

  23. 2018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #14

    One Planet Only Forever@13, I respect your opinion but don't agree that fossil fuels are root of all evils. If for instance humans had burnt forests instead of fossil fuels, there's some evidence that the overall environmental impact might be worse than it is now. Population growth has also fueled emissions growth, and if the global population had stabilised at 2-3 billion it's unlikely that we would have a climate problem in 2018, even if 100% powered by coal, oil and gas.

    Aportioning of blame might make some people feel better but it doesn't solve the problem, and might even make solutions more difficult to achieve.  Now is the time to accept that a problem exists and to devise and implement remedial actions that are likely to succeed and are universally accepted. 

  24. The courts are deciding who's to blame for climate change

    We are: the people lead, governments follow!

  25. Climate Science Denial Explained: Tactics of Denial

    Nijelj@9, I think you're on the right track with that reasoning. Living in conservative heartland I meet many people who are labelled  'deniers' but in actual fact many do openly acknowledge the existence of climate change, along with the possibility of potential severe consequences. However, they resist voting for political parties that advocate more radical solutions, primarily because those parties lean further to the left than a conservative is prepared to go, but also due to the negative consequences already experienced from transitioning to intermittent renewables, which in Australia has seen higher power prices and reduced reliability / more outages in some states and regions.  In Australia, our governing Liberal Party is actually the most conservative party, and offers less ambitious targets and solutions than Labor or The Greens, but it seems almost certain now that Labor will win gov't next year, and possibly with a Greens alliance, and if it does will definitely implement its policy of 50% renewable energy by 2030, and with more ambitious targets going forward. 

    To a large extent, Labor's success or failure will depend on energy prices and reliability, as well as the overall impact on the economy. Overly ambitious targets that risk energy affordabilty and / or reliability, with a flow-on economic impact will create a large voter backlash and a rapid return to a more conservative government with a more conservative climate change policy.

  26. Glacier loss is accelerating because of global warming

    Michael, Steveh should answer for himself, but I think he is echoing WUWT commentators. If the ice core is 400 years old at bedrock, then that "proves" Mt Hunter was ice-free pre-1600 (ie MWP) and only re-glaciated in LIA which are now thankfully "coming out of". I kid you not.

  27. Skeptical Science at EGU 2018 - a personal diary

    Regarding debunking climate myths. I have heard the incorrect claim a lot recently that climate science can't be trusted, because the science is allegedly very new, and was developed by the United Nations for political motives. Or variations on this general theme.

    The science is actually more than a century old. It might be worth adding this issue to the list of climate myths with some of the history.

  28. michael sweet at 12:49 PM on 20 April 2018
    Glacier loss is accelerating because of global warming


    Your analysis is not supported by the paper you reference.  They specifically state that the thickness of each year of ice becomes thinner as you go down in the ice core.  Below 165 meters the layers are too thin to resolve, while near the surface they are as thick as a meter.  This means your estimation of 100-300 years previously to be ice free is just something you made up.  The actual time to the bottom of the core is much longer, it is not discussed in the paper.  The data do not support your claim that this ice core relates to the MWP.  I did not see any mention of the MWP in the paper.

    In summary: you have made up any statements about the MWP, they are not supported by the data in the paper.

  29. Glacier loss is accelerating because of global warming

    From the next to last paragraph in the above article - "And this is why a new study attracted my attention. A paper was just published by the American Geophysical Union that shared research carried out by Dominic Winski and his colleagues."

    The mt hunter study is interesting for a number of reasons in that it confirms several things most everyone knows.

    The first point is that two ice cores were drilled down to 208 meters at which point they hit rock.  The 400 year point (from 2013 to 1613) was reached at 164.8 meters which left approximately 44 meters which extrapolates to approx 100-300 years for the remaining ice.  in other words mt hunter was ice free sometime between 1300-1400 which coincides with the end of the MWP.

    Second, this is another of several data points that indicate that the MWP was more wide spread than the convential/current climate science conclusions.  This is also consitent with the exposed tree stumps from the mendenhal retreating glacier which was carbon dated circa 1000-1100ad.

    Third the study points out the the melting is 60x more than circa 1850 which is to be expected since that is considered the end of the LIA.

    In summary, the Mt hunter study adds additional confirmation and insight to what is already known.

  30. Sea level rise predictions are exaggerated

    More reasons to suspect that the IPCC projections of SLR are on the low side...

    Sea levels could be rising faster than predicted due to new source of Antarctic ice melting by Josh Gabbatis, Environment, Independent (UK), Apr 19, 2018

    New study shows worrisome signs for Greenland ice by John Abraham, Climate Consensus - the 97%, Gurdian, Apr 14, 2018

    Antarctic Glaciers Lost Stunning Amount of Ground in Recent Years by Chelsea Harvey, E&E News/Scientific American, Apr 4, 2018

  31. Climate Science Denial Explained: Tactics of Denial

    Conspiracy theorist: "I believe in hypothesis A" (eg climate change isnt happening)  [belief is based on preferences routed in values and identity]

    Rationalist: "Here is data proving the contrary"

    CT: "There is a conspiracy to hide the real data" [cant change the belief so only alternative is disbelieve the data]

    Virtually all conspiracy theories dont make sense. They are held by people for whom the rationalist framework is a foreign country.

  32. CO2 is plant food

    After 24 years, the pattern reverses: C3 plants grow worse as CO2 continues to increase, and C4 plants grow better. New article.

  33. Sea level rise predictions are exaggerated

    NorrisM @81, concerning 2 M approx. sea level rise by 2100, if the Antarctic destabilises etc.

    Right now this is possible and connot be ruled out. Probabilities are small given current best understandings and observational evidence, but 2M by 2100 would be catastrophic. Because the consequences are grave, even a low possibility becomes concerning.You have to think of it in these terms.

    It's not sensible to start saying perhaps a 10% possibility, or we dont have definitive evidence or enough  observations so lets hope we dodge this bullet, because if we don't consequences are very severe and very costly in terms of adaptation and possible geo political ramnifications. Even 1M is bad enough.

    Of course you have to weigh all this against costs of reducing emissions, but these have been demonstrated to be within the boundaries of what countries can deal with and the technology is there, at least for electricity and vehicle transport, and these are large parts of the issue and negative emissions options are also available and proven in most cases.

    And appreciate whatever the rate of sea level rise is by 2100, it will continue at the same or greater rate beyond 2100.The more temperatures rise the faster ice melts, basic stuff and this is before you consider how glaciers and ice sheets respond in detail and can become destabilised.

    The last decade or so has averaged about 3.5MM so thats 350mm per century at 1 degree of warming. Even drastic emissions cuts by 2050 has still locked in about 1.5 degree, and so at least 400mm probably more like 600mm by 2100. So forget about this low end  scenario.

    Higher temperatures can only increase the rate well above 400mm. We are definitely in 1M to 2M territory, unless emissions are reduced.

  34. 2018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #15

    This is important: Trump's Latest Plan for Saving Coal Comes From the Cold War

  35. Climate Science Denial Explained: Tactics of Denial

    Doug_C @6

    Well argued. The idea that climate science is a conspiracy doesn't make sense to me either. Too many people have been involved to keep such a secret. It's as absurd as the twin towers conspiracy theories, or moon landing conspiracy.

    Of course the denialists would argue bizarre things that all the early research was fake, and its all an elaborate plot by the one world illuminati socialist globalist conspiracy to enslave humans for god knows what crazy reason. 

    Better to apply occams razor. The simplest explanations are usually correct. Scientists were looking at the climate and trying to explain things, nothing more or less than this.

    Apply Occams Razor to the climate denialists and its tempting to say they are simply ignorant low intelligence people, but this doesn't stand scrutiny, because the denialists include higher than average intelligence, so the next plausible and simple motive is vested interests and political dislike of government regulations and programmes needed to help fix the problem.

  36. Climate Science Denial Explained: Tactics of Denial

    Art Vandelay @6

    "After all, a higher average temperature will result in greater evaporation - which means more vapor in the atmosphere."

    Yeah I was wondering this exact thing myself, and I dont know the text book answer. However here's my answer as an alternative to M Sweet.  If the sun went through a period of enhanced activity causing a warming effect and the water vapour feedback, day time temperatures are increasing because of both direct influence of the sun 'and' the water vapour greenhouse effect.  This is going to lead to more rise of temperatures during the day than at night because at night the only factor is the greenhouse effect. 

  37. Glacier loss is accelerating because of global warming

    Useful articles on the glacier issue:

  38. Glacier loss is accelerating because of global warming

    Of course the amount of percipitation is likely to be the same or greater in a glacier free world but the water will flow down the rivers to a large extent in the winter when it is less needed and not in the summer when it is.  Countries, where it is possible would be wise to become absolute fanatics about spreading beavers through the head waters of all streams and mounting a wide and deep education program in the media and in the schools about the benefits beavers bring.

  39. Glacier loss is accelerating because of global warming

    The above is an excellent article that expands my knowledge of glaciers in the global climate picture, but there is one critical aspect that I have not seen summarized for lay readers. 

    It is obvious to anyone with even a basic knowledge of geography and hydrology that China, India, many SE Asia nations as well as South American nations on the western slopes of the Andes depend on glacier melt to feed their rivers and support their civilizations.  The number of humans in both the countryside and major cities that depend on the great rivers of SE Asia is staggering.  (Conversely, the glaciers of Alaska, Greenland and West Antarctic & the Antarctic Peninsula are important with respect to sea level rise, but not critical as water sources for large populations.  

    Water and the balance between its solid, liquid and vapor/gas states is the magic that makes the difference between a dead, rocky planet in the proper solar radiation zone, and one that teems with fertile soil and life.  Water - supplies, droughts and floods - will likely be a primary factor in causing turmoil, strife and tragedy in modern civilization as AGW/CC progresses.

    If anyone knows of a comprehensive summary of human dependence on mountain glaciers - and/or winter snow packs as in California - please post a link.  The likely progression of events includes increasing overall glacier-fed river water flow rates for now - in erratic patterns including floods and low flows.  In the near future - as mountain glaciers are reduced to fractions of their former size and volume - overall flow rates will "permanently" decrease.  This will have dire consequences for the downstream farmers and cities who have depended on glacier-fed rivers for centuries. 

    (I will search the internet over the next couple of days, and if I find a good summary, will post a link.) 

  40. michael sweet at 23:12 PM on 19 April 2018
    Sea level rise predictions are exaggerated


    I typed "Rignot" into google and one of the first hits was :

    Rignot et al Widespread, rapid grounding line retreat of Pine Island,
    Thwaites, Smith, and Kohler glaciers, West Antarctica,
    from 1992 to 2011

    This appears to fit what you want.

    I sugggest you follow my previous recommendation and go to Rignot's personal web site (google rignot) and review his publications on this topic. 

    In general, it is not my job to search Google for you.  Try to  make more of an effort.

  41. michael sweet at 22:08 PM on 19 April 2018
    Climate Science Denial Explained: Tactics of Denial

    Art Vandelay,

    I do not have a peer reviewed explaination for your question.

    I understand that if the sun was stronger it would deliver more energy during the day and heat it up.  Since it is hotter, more energy would radiate into space at night so the night time temperature would not increase as much as during the day.  (Night time temperatures would increase, just not as much).

    With more CO2, the temperature would increase because energy from the sun would radiate to space more slowly.  This would have a larger effect at night because night time cooling would be a lot slower.  Nigelj's reference appears to be slightly different from mine, his is more authorative.

    Spencer Weart's book The history of Global Warming source would have this information.

  42. Glacier loss is accelerating because of global warming

    Interesting how the graph of mass balance shows a curved form over the full time period, although it is not exactly smoothly rounded. However its an acceleration, that reinforces the information suggesting sea level rise has accelerated. 

  43. Climate Science Denial Explained: Tactics of Denial

    Let's use the relativity of wrong to compare a climate change "conspiracy" perpetrated by scientists with a climate change denial conspiracy perpetrated by people associated with the fossil fuel sector.

    1. In the first case this would have to be a very long running conspiracy dating back to the early days of modern science when it was first realized that the Earth's surface was warmer than it should be if it was just radiating its black body radiation driectly into space - that was in the late 1600s. By the 1820s Joseph Fourier has calculated by how much the Earth was being wamred by this unknown process. By the 1850s John Tyndall had identified what was almost certainly the mechanism, carbon dioxide and water vapour in the atmosphere that he clearly demonstrated to the London Royal Society trapped heat. By the 1890s Svante Arrhenius did the thousands of calculations by hand that were required to determine climate sensitivity - what happens to average global temperature if you double atmospheric CO2. Results that are "suspiciously" still within modern margin of error. All this before the development of very powerful theoretical tools to understand how nature behaves at the smallest level where this process would be going on.

    Now we have the next step in the science "conspiracy" with the introduction of quantum mechanics and a much deeper understanding of why more complex molecules like H2O and CO2 absorbs heat and N2 and O2 don't. Confirming the science that already stretched back two centuries. And all subsequent science on climate change has been based on this solid theoretical and experimental foundation.

    If there is a scientific conspiracy regarding climate change it is very old and suspiciously self-confirming by using the scientific process that gives us most of modern technology and therefore modern society itself.

    If the science of climate change is a fraud then so is all the rest of science which is based in the same fundamental theories in which case society stops working and falls apart... we're still here. Great, that's evidence that the science of climate change has a very high degree of confidence.

    2. Case two, is climate change denial a fraud and if so who is behind it. Where oh where would we ever find parties with almost unlimited funding who might want to deny the valid science of climate change no matter the consistent data for centuries.

    We know that those running Exxon had a very good idea of the science 40 years ago and decided to deny it.

    Exxon Knew about Climate Change almost 40 years ago

    We also know with a high degree of confidence that some of the same "scientists" that went to work with the tobacco industry to deny health risks also transferred the same techniques developed to do that to denying climate change.

    The denial industry

    We also know that the Royal Society specifically warned Exxon to stop funding climate change denial in 2006.

    Royal Society tells Exxon: stop funding climate change denial

    And even though on the surface it seems like it did stop outright funding of denial groups it had set up, the evidence is now that a complex network has been created to use "dark money" to keep funding climate change denial.

    "Dark Money" Funds Climate Change Denial Effort

    So comparing the two "conspiracies" lets see how they fit in the relativity of wrong.

    - A conspiracy of scientists is highly unlikely because it totally lacks a motive. All the individuals associated with the field going back centuries were applying the latest knowledge in the best manner available. And their result are still in close agreement with science in general without which modern society wouldn't exist.

    Very unlikely that there is a scientific conspiracy behind human created climate change.

    2. Denial of the science appeared suddenly in the late 1970s when individuals running a corporation that would soon cease to exist if the latest science guided policy decided to deny that science no matter the cost. They later used techniques developed by the tobacco industry which has since been sued successly many times for doing so.

    There is a long, well documented money trail from the fossil fuel sector to the denial movement. Which means deniers are not true skeptics in any sense, they are paid shills. When presented with evidence of their own complicity in a 40 year old fraud they totally ignore it and go into a complex display of the techniques of denial as listed above. Once again first created by the tobacco lobby to convince members of each new generation to contribute "replacement" smokers as the older ones died off much earlier than they would have otherwise.

    End result.

    - No evidence at all the scientific theory of human forced climate change has been intentionally forged at any point.

    - All the evidence point to denial being entirely a fraudulent exercise to distort and deny the valid science in exactly the same manner the tobacco lobby did using some of the very same players. See Fred Seitz and Fred Singer for two examples of this.

  44. Climate Science Denial Explained: Tactics of Denial

    Michael@3, Nijel@4, I don't dispute what either of you are saying, but why would a stronger sun result in a greater rise in daytime max temperatures than nighttime min temperatures?  After all, a higher average temperature will result in greater evaporation - which means more vapor in the atmosphere. IOW, enhanced greenhouse.   

    I know it's not directly related to the actual topic being presented, and it's not my intention to take discussion off topic.  

  45. Sea level rise predictions are exaggerated

    My apologies for going off-thread. 

    Thanks Bob Loblaw for your explanation of short term variations in sea level rise based upon precipitation impacted by El Ninos and La Ninas.  I can see that the  "levelling off" of sea level rise shown in the second Dan Bailey graph above did occur post 2015.  I am assuming that this is attributed to the La Nina which followed the 2015-2106 El Nino.   

    But despite my requests, I have not had any suggestions for reviewing any recent paper on what is actually happening with the WAIS.    

    Here is what I said with respect to WAIS in my long blog @ 58 above:

    "As to the evidence of a retreat of WAIS, see Chapter 13 at
    'Although the model used by Huybrechts et al. (2011) is in principle capable of capturing grounding line motion of marine ice sheets (see Box 13.2), low confidence is assigned to the model’s ability to cap­ture the associated time scale and the perturbation required to ini­tiate a retreat (Pattyn et al., 2013).'

    What this tells me is that there is a “theoretical” danger but so far we do not have any evidence of an actual retreat or the time frame over which this could occur. We cannot base our rational responses to AGW based upon theories which have not been supported with observational evidence."

    Has anyone challenged me on these statements beyond providing me with the De Conto & Pollard paper?  I have asked for further references beyond De Conto & Pollard which, on my reading, is once again, theory adding  MICI to MISI.  Is there any paper discussing recent observational evidence of the MISI or MICI theories?

    The IPCC basically said in 2013 that the previous papers on MISI (prior to De Conto & Pollard) do not provide any time frame.  Does this comment still hold valid?

  46. 2018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #15

    Riduana, I wouldn't be too picky about the difference between climate change and global warming.  Both global warming and the predominant changes in climate come from an increase in the heat content near the earth's surface.

    However ocean acidification (which you list as a consequence of global warming) is a substantially different issue.  The main reason for increased acidity is an increase in the amount of CO2 dissolved in it.  That is a consequence of increased CO2 in the atmosphere, and not (primarily) caused by the increased heat content.  It would not happen if there were a sudden rise in CH4 without the rise in CO2, whereas climate change and global warming would.

  47. Glacier loss is accelerating because of global warming

    This will be of growing concern to the 2 billion people who are sustained by the waters of glaciers on the Hindu-Kush, Himalayas and mountains of N.W. China

  48. American conservatives are still clueless about the 97% expert climate consensus

    Thanks, gentlemen, for the images of GRACE data and an updated sea level graph. I knew of the GRACE data and analysis, but Rob Painting's older post was the one I first found with a quick search.

    In terms of updated sea level data, Daniel Bailey had already posted another more-up-to-date graph in this comment on the "Sea Level Rise Predictions Are Exaggerated" thread that michael sweet has responded on. Daniel's comment is only two spots above NorrisM's long comment with his unsupportable argument for linear extrapolation. This is an example of why comments should be placed on the correct threads.

  49. Sea level rise predictions are exaggerated

    To collect the bread crumbs of the responses here, michael sweet's commnet #79 refers to several comments on the "American conservatives are still clueless..." thread, ending with this comment,

  50. 2018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #15


    The header for the first section of Dr Sheperd's article is Global warming is just one part of climate change. All of the ensuing narrative in this section explains this statement in more detail. I see no daylight between your and Dr Sheperd's respective understandings of global warming and climate change.  

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