Skeptical Science New Research for Week #3, 2020

Biography of a policy metric

Bård Lahn performs a sweeping literature review to present the history of our notion of a "global carbon budget" and how this number has come  to encapsulate a massive amount of scientific research into a useful, easily grasped tool in our policy skill set.  A history of the global carbon budget is open access, free to read, worth your time. 

Wildfire and climate change

In the publication mill long before recent events in Australia but popping up in a timely fashion, Wildfire risk science facilitates adaptation of fire-prone social-ecological systems to the new fire reality  (open access) by Dunn et al describes what might be termed an engineered approach to dealing with increasing wildfire risk in the western United States.  

84 Articles

Physical science of global warming & warming effects

Antarctic Ice Sheet and emission scenario controls on 21st-century extreme sea-level changes (open access)

The Incredible Lightness of Water Vapor

A Bayesian framework for emergent constraints: case studies of climate sensitivity with PMIP (open access)

Sea level budgets should account for ocean bottom deformation

On the relationship between Atlantic meridional overturning circulation slowdown and global surface warming (open access)

Observations & observational methods of global warming & effects

Consistency of extreme temperature changes in China under a historical half-degree warming increment across different reanalysis and observational datasets (open access)

Climate change and variability: empirical evidence for countries and agroecological zones of the Sahel

Anthropogenic and lightning‐started fires are becoming larger and more frequent over a longer season length in the U.S.A.

Two decades of ocean acidification in the surface waters of the Beaufort Gyre, Arctic Ocean: effects of sea ice melt and retreat from 1997‐2016

Measuring Greenland Ice Sheet Melt using Spaceborne GNSS Reflectometry from TechDemoSat‐1

Underestimated change of wet‐bulb temperatures over East and South China

Uncertainty Estimates for Sea Surface Temperature and Land Surface Air Temperature in NOAAGlobalTemp Version 5 (open access)

Thunderstorm Trends Over Africa

Trends in Landfalling Tropical Cyclone Induced Precipitation over China

Is urbanisation also the culprit of climate change? – Evidence from Australian cities

Is the cold region in Northeast China still getting warmer under climate change impact?

Recent unprecedented weakening of Indian summer monsoon in warming environment

Modeling & simulation of global warming & global warming effects

The 2018 Kerala floods: a climate change perspective (open access)

Future projections and uncertainty assessment of precipitation extremes in the Korean peninsula from the CMIP5 ensemble (open access)

Conspicuous temperature extremes over Southeast Asia: seasonal variations under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming

Substantial twentieth-century Arctic warming caused by ozone-depleting substances

Eddy Activity Response to Global Warming–Like Temperature Changes (open access)

The role of history and strength of the oceanic forcing in sea-level projections from Antarctica with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (open access)

The future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet: a multi-model ensemble study of ISMIP6 (open access)

Is there warming in the pipeline? A multi-model analysis of the zero emission commitment from CO2 (open access)

Impact of forcing on sublimation simulations for a high mountain catchment in the semiarid Andes (open access)

Amplified tropical Pacific rainfall variability related to background SST warming (open access)

Future projections of the near-surface wind speed over eastern China based on CMIP5 datasets

Robustness and drivers of the Northern Hemisphere extratropical atmospheric circulation response to a CO $$_2$$2 -induced warming in CNRM-CM6-1

Evolution of Mediterranean Sea water properties under climate change scenarios in the Med-CORDEX ensemble

Response of the quasi‐biennial oscillation to a warming climate in global climate models

More Robust Changes in the East Asian Winter Monsoon from 1.5°C to 2.0°C Global Warming Targets

Climate model advancement

Constraining Uncertainties in CMIP5 Projections of September Arctic Sea Ice Extent with Observations (open access)

Effective radiative forcing and adjustments in CMIP6 models (open access)

Results of the third Marine Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (MISMIP+) (open access)

The Arctic Ocean Observation Operator for 6.9 GHz (ARC3O) Part 1: How to obtain sea-ice brightness temperatures at 6.9 GHz from climate model output (open access)

The Arctic Ocean Observation Operator for 6.9 GHz (ARC3O) Part 2: Development and evaluation (open access)

Surprising similarities in model and observational aerosol radiative forcing estimates (open access)

Biology & global warming

Spatial synchrony in the response of a long range migratory species (Salmo salar) to climate change in the North Atlantic Ocean

Clam feeding plasticity reduces herbivore vulnerability to ocean warming and acidification

Physical and biogeochemical impacts of RCP8.5 scenario in the Peru upwelling system (open access)

Foraminiferal holobiont thermal tolerance under climate change – Roommates problems or successful collaboration? (open access)

Low sensitivity of gross primary production to elevated CO2 in a mature eucalypt woodland (open access)

Sea ice loss increases genetic isolation in a high Arctic ungulate metapopulation

Multiple axes of ecological vulnerability to climate change

Paradise lost: End‐of‐century warming and acidification under business‐as‐usual emissions have severe consequences for symbiotic corals

Climate change fingerprints in recent European plant phenology

Developmental trap or demographic bonanza? Opposing consequences of earlier phenology in a changing climate for a multivoltine butterfly

Changes in the potential stocks of coral reef ecosystem services following coral bleaching in Sekisei Lagoon, southern Japan: implications for the future under global warming

Variations in seasonal (not mean) temperatures drive rapid adaptations to novel environments at a continent‐scale

GHG sources & sinks, flux

Carbon deposition and burial in estuarine sediments of the contiguous United States

“You can’t value what you can’t measure”: a critical look at forest carbon accounting

Modelling and empirical validation of long‐term carbon sequestration in forests (France, 1850‐2015)

Origin of volatile organic compound emissions from subarctic tundra under global warming

Climate drives global soil carbon sequestration and crop yield changes under conservation agriculture

Climate change communications & cognition

Risk or Efficacy? How Psychological Distance Influences Climate Change Engagement

Against the De Minimis Principle

Urban climate and environmental perception about climate change in Belém, Pará, Brazil

Reducing, and bridging, the psychological distance of climate change

Humans dealing with our global warming

Wildfire risk science facilitates adaptation of fire-prone social-ecological systems to the new fire reality (open access)

Do carbon abatement opportunities become less profitable over time? A global firm-level perspective using CDP data

Climate policy and power producers: The distribution of pain and gain

Social tipping dynamics for stabilizing Earth’s climate by 2050 (open access)

The changing climate-migration relationship in China, 1989–2011

Why is climate adaptation so important? What are the needs for additional research?

Revisiting the climate driver and inhibitor mechanisms of international migration (open access)

Africa's Climate Response to Solar Radiation Management with Stratospheric Aerosol

Local climate change adaptation plans in the US and France: Comparison and lessons learned in 2007-2017

Fishers’ perceptions and adaptation on climate change in northeastern Taiwan

One district one factory policy of Ghana, a transition to a low-carbon habitable economy?

Compounding climate change impacts during high stress periods for a high wind and solar power system in Texas (open access)

Does regional innovation system efficiency facilitate energy-related carbon dioxide intensity reduction in China?

A framework for assessing the economic impacts of Arctic change (open access)

Other

African climate response to orbital and glacial forcing in 140,000-y simulation with implications for early modern human environments (open access)

Glacial Earthquakes and Precursory Seismicity Associated with Thwaites‐Glacier Calving

Decadal Changes in the Interannual Variability of Heat Waves in East Asia Caused by Atmospheric Teleconnection Changes (open access)

Global and regional entropy production by radiation estimated from satellite observations

The Copernicus Polar Ice and Snow Topography Altimeter (CRISTAL): Expected Mission Contributions (open access)

Greenland temperature and precipitation over the last 20,000 years using data assimilation (open access)

Global mean surface temperature and climate sensitivity of the EECO, PETM and latest Paleocene (open access)

Informed opinion & nudges

A history of the global carbon budget

Long‐term projections of sea‐level rise from ice sheets

Legally obtaining copies of "paywalled" articles

We know it's frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. Here's an excellent collection of tips and techniques for obtaining articles, legally. 

Suggestions

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The previous edition of Skeptical Science New Research may be found here. 

Posted by doug_bostrom on Wednesday, 22 January, 2020


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