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Comments matching the search lomborg:

    More than 100 comments found. Only the most recent 100 have been displayed.

  • CO2 limits will harm the economy

    Bob Loblaw at 23:36 PM on 2 April, 2023

    As usual, MA Rodger @115 manages to find links to useful links to these things...


    I did read Lomborg's "The Skeptical Environmentalist" many years ago. The major thing that struck me was the way he compartmentalized the various "costs" and alternative solutions. He'd look at one specific/isolated problem caused by climate change, and then claim that it was cheaper to fix that problem after the fact than to avoid the climate change.


    Of course, to avoid climate change you only have to pay for it once - not many times for each individual/isolated problem. He would never add up all the costs of the different isolated problems and compare that total to the one-time "avoid climate change" cost.


    It's like saying "it will cost me $10,000 to fix that leaking roof on my house", and then conclude that it is cheaper to clean and repaint the bedroom ceiling when the water damages it. And then when the leaking roof causes damage to wall insulation, it's cheaper to replace the insulation. And when electrical wiring shorts out, it's cheaper to re-do the wiring. And when the TV gets wet, it's cheaper to replace the TV. And  on, and on, and on.


    Eventually, the rational home owner realizes that it would have been cheaper to fix the roof than to replace the many, many things that the leaking roof damaged. But as long as you can fool the home owner into looking at each individual problem in isolation, you can sell them a paint job, an electrical job, and new TV, etc. If your business is home repair - not roofing - then it becomes a lucrative approach. Also lucrative if your business is to prevent roof repairs.


    MA Rodger's link to the rebuttal is worth reading. Lomborg, not so much. All you need to do is look to see what Lomborg's proposed alternatives are and assess how much effort he puts into making those alternatives happen - as opposed to how much effort he puts into arguing against preventing climate change. (Cue the XKCD cartoon...)

  • CO2 limits will harm the economy

    MA Rodger at 18:35 PM on 2 April, 2023

    retiredguy @112,


    You do specifically ask about rebuttals of Lomborg's verbose 2020 paper 'Welfare in the 21st century: Increasing development, reducing inequality, the impact of climate change, and the cost of climate policies' and as has been pointed out, this paper is packed full of the usual Lomborg nonsense. I don't know of any specific rebuttal to this paper. I think with a 'broken record' like Lomborg, you need the expertise to unpick his nonsense as well as the dedication to keep at it. A month after this paper, Lomborg published a book 'False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet' and that did result in a rebuttal.


    As for the paper 'Welfare in the 21st century: Increasing development, reducing inequality, the impact of climate change, and the cost of climate policies,' we can cut through all Lomborg's nonsense and simply consider his basic argument which is that AGM mitigation preventing large levels of global warming (as in scenario SSP1-1.9) is, according to Lomborg, not as benificial to mankind as allowing fossil fuel use to continue without restriction (as in secanario SSP5-8.5, roughly similar to the previous RCP8.5). From the abstract:-



    Long-term impacts of climate policy can cost even more [than 2030 costs]. The IPCC's two best future scenarios are the “sustainable” SSP1 and the “fossil-fuel driven” SSP5. Current climate-focused attitudes suggest we aim for the “sustainable” world, but the higher economic growth in SSP5 actually leads to much greater welfare for humanity. After adjusting for climate damages, SSP5 will on average leave grandchildren of today's poor $48,000 better off every year. It will reduce poverty by 26 million each year until 2050, inequality will be lower, and more than 80 million premature deaths will be avoided.



    This argument is thus mainly based on the economic predictions set out by IPCC ARs within these SSPs and then downplaying to the point of insignificant the economic damage in a SSP5-8.5 world experiencing +4.4ºC by 2100 (this a central figure in the range +3.3ºC-5.7ºC) and which will continue warming post-2100, the 2300 range being given as  +6.6ºC−14.1ºC.  Now that is scary. (And note in the graphic below, the SSP5/RCP8.5 temperatures are still rising in 2300. There is even more to come.) Lomborg is advocating a really scary future while insisting there is no scary future.


    Warming to 2300 scenarios

  • CO2 limits will harm the economy

    One Planet Only Forever at 10:05 AM on 2 April, 2023

    retiredguy @112,


    As Bob Loblaw has pointed out, serious pursuers of better understanding may not have bothered to do 'yet another' detailed debunking of Lomborg's nonsense. I read some of his earlier books and was able to easily identify many misleading claims he made. He has a history of changing his claims, but not his motivation to be misleading regarding the climate impact problem and its solutions.


    Based on the title of the 2020 Lomborg item, I am almost certain that this version of his misleading story-telling efforts can be effectively corrected by reading helpful detailed documents like the UNDP's Human Development Reports. I particularly recommend the 2020 HDR which includes a robust evaluation that dispels the myth that GDP is a meaningful measure of advancement.


    Other documents that help people learn how to dismiss the claims of people like Lomborg include:


  • CO2 limits will harm the economy

    Bob Loblaw at 04:34 AM on 2 April, 2023

    retiredguy:


    Bjorn Lomborg is a broken record, who basically keeps repeating most of the same arguments over and over and over (and over). Much of his stuff has been debunked in a variety of sources (over, and over, and over, and over).


    Is there anything particularly new in that work you linked to? Any reason to spend time on it, since (for me, at least) it has been years (if not decades) since I have seen anything worth reading from him?


    You can read more about his general track record at Desmog.


    ...and for the most, part, I think what he usually has to say bears a strong resemblance to this XKCD cartoon:


    Bigger Problem

  • CO2 limits will harm the economy

    retiredguy at 01:09 AM on 2 April, 2023

    Can anyone point me to a comprehensive review and response to Bjorn Lomborg's July 2020 article, "Welfare in the 21st century: Increasing development, reducing inequality, the impact of climate change, and the cost of climate policies" ?


    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162520304157

  • Models are unreliable

    Eclectic at 05:26 AM on 5 September, 2022

    Lomborg today sounds more like Fox News & Tucker Carlson.


    That's a slight exaggeration, JohnCalvinNYU  ~ but Lomborg's ideas seem to be wandering further away from common sense . . . almost like he's getting all his information from the Murdoch media empire.


    John, please widen your education.  Avoid Fox and suchlike propagandists.

  • Models are unreliable

    Bob Loblaw at 05:02 AM on 5 September, 2022

    JohnCalvinNYU:


    I"m really not sure just what definition of "accurate" you are using. If you are expecting it to be "perfect", then prepare to be disappointed. Science (and life in general) does not produce perfect results. Any scientific prediction, projection, estimate, etc. comes with some sort of range for the expected results - either implicitly, or explicitly.


    You will often see this expressed as an indication of the "level of confidence" in a result. (This applies to any analysis, not just models.) In the most recent IPCC Summary for Policymakers, the state that they use the following terms (footnote 4, page 4):



    Each finding is grounded in an evaluation of underlying evidence and agreement. A level of confidence is expressed using five qualifiers: very low, low, medium, high and very high, and typeset in italics, for example, medium confidence. The following terms have been used to indicate the assessed likelihood of an outcome or result: virtually certain 99–100% probability; very likely 90–100%; likely 66–100%; about as likely as not 33–66%; unlikely 0–33%; very unlikely 0–10%; and exceptionally unlikely 0–1%. Additional terms (extremely likely 95–100%; more likely than not >50–100%; and extremely unlikely 0–5%) are also used when appropriate. Assessed likelihood is typeset in italics, for example, very likely. This is consistent with AR5. In this Report, unless stated otherwise, square brackets [x to y] are used to provide the assessed very likely range, or 90% interval.



    So, the logical answer to your question of why models are constantly being updated or improved is so that we can increase the accuracy of the models and increase our confidence in the results. Since nothing is perfect, there is always room for improvement - even if the current accuracy is good enough for a specific practical purpose.


    Models also have a huge number of different outputs - temperature, precipitation, winds, pressure - basically if it is measured as "weather" then you can analysis the model output in the same way that you can analyze weather. A model can be very accurate for some outputs, and less accurate for others. It can be very accurate for some regions, and less accurate for others. It can be very accurate for some periods of geological time, and less accurate for others. The things it is accurate for can be used to guide policy, while the things we have less confidence in we may want to hedge our bets on.


    Saying "none of the climate catastrophes predicted in the last 50 years" is such a vague claim. If you want to be at all convincing in your claim, you are going to have to actually provide specific examples of what predictions you are talking about, and provide links to accurate analyses that show these predictions to be in error. Climate models have long track records of accurate predictions.


    Here at SkS, you can use the search box (upper left" to search for "lessons from past climate predictions" and find quite a few posts here that look at a variety of specific predictions. (Spoiler alert: you'll find a few posts in there that show some pretty inaccurate predictions from some of the key "contrarians" you might be a fan of.)


    As for Lomborg: very little he says is accurate. Or if it is accurate, it omits other important variables to such an extent that his conclusions are inaccurate. I have no idea where I would find the article of his that you mention, and no desire to spend time trying to find it. If that is your source of your "none of the climate catastrophes" claim, then I repeat: you need to provide specific examples and something better than a link to a Lomborg opinion piece.


    There have been reviews, etc. posted here of previous efforts by Lomborg, such as:


    https://skepticalscience.com/open-letter-to-wsj-scientist-response-to-misleading-lomborg.html


    https://skepticalscience.com/lomborg-WSJ-debunk-CSRRT.html


    https://skepticalscience.com/lomborg-detailed-citation-analysis.html


    ...and Lomborg has a page over at DesmogBlog.


    In short, you're going to have to do a lot better if you expect to make a convincing argument.

  • Models are unreliable

    JohnCalvinNYU at 01:45 AM on 5 September, 2022

    If climate models are accurate then why are they constantly being updated or improved?   Assuming there's even a logical answer to that question, how are scientiests certain that the "improved" versions of the models are actually improved?   None of the climate catastrophes predicted during the past 50 years ago have come to pass (see "False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet" by Bjorn Lomborg) so why is the scientific community convinced it is correct now given it's history of failing to make accutrate climate predictions?  

  • The New Climate War by Michael E. Mann - our reviews

    Nick Palmer at 02:05 AM on 11 June, 2021

    Phillipe and NigelJ. I think you two have somewhat missed that I was referring to the definite and real uncertainty in the science BEFORE Hansen's 1988 speech and the formation of the IPCC. That is when the documents in 'Exxon Knew', which are now held up as evidnec of 'certain' knowledge and associated deceit, were created. It is less than honest of people to assert that our modern established science in any way is comparable to the nascent science back then, upon which it would have been simply wrong to base far-reaching, global economy affecting/dismantling policies. It is verging on deceit to cast aspersions at targets who are not guilty or, at least, very much less guilty than they are being accused of being, using sophisticated rhetoric, cherry picking, misattribution of motivation etc and all the liguistic techniques that such as John Cook has clarified the denialist 'side' as using.


    The uncertainty I was referring to (ordinary man-in-the-street definition, not the scientific one), at the relevant time, and what was not well understood then, was of such a magnitude (look again at the Dessler quote I gave) that it was entirely justified that Big Oil did not turn on a sixpence and shut down when the environmental organisations seized on this new way to attack Big Industry by using activist's frequent tendency to make unwarranted speculations on fragmentary evidence, then deciding that whatever unlikely speculative doomy result they came up with is almost certain to happen and then using that to justify calling for bans and authoritarian restrictions to avoid that end.


    There can be no doubt that Big Oil sponsored think tanks, Institutes and lobbying organisations that used actual denialist rhetoric as part of their portfolio of techniques to try to influence politicians and policy formulations but, and I think this is where a lot of people go wrong, this should not have caused people to jump to the conclusion that Big Oil was deliberately spreading denialism because they were actually in denial of climate science - pause for a lot of screaming and gnashing of teeth by the extremists! I submit that these tactics of Big Oil were just ordinary political manoeuvring to resist irrationally draconian 'green/red' calls until the science got strong enough. The primary function of such lobbying organisations is to help their clients fight back against what they see as heavy handed legislation or inappropriate policy making by government pandering to the views of misinformed activists and those members of the voting public whose views have been changed by them to the point where they would vote in such draconian and misconceived action.


    It is a matter of record that the fossil fuel industry increasingly deserted the early 'denialist' fossil fuel organisation - which was formed in 1989 - the 'Global Climate Coalition' - until by the early 2000s it was disbanded, and this was because the science had got strong enough.


    "The GCC dissolved in 2001 after membership declined in the face of improved understanding of the role of greenhouse gases in climate change and of public criticism" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Climate_Coalition


    Anyone who engages with denialists, the right wing or who defends the basic priciples behind environmentalism (which are, of course, still very valid) will pretty soon be accused of being a 'watermelon' - green on the outside, red on the inside, by which they mean that environmentalists have a superficial layer of concern for the environment masking a far left 'smash capitalism' ideology underneath. This is not a conspiracy theory! It is clear that many recent significant spokespersons indeed do have a very deep seated antipathy towards the capitalism system, upon which they lay the blame for all sorts of mankind's woes and they have an ideological zeal that only their pet version of international socialism will save us all - which goal, to them, justifies the deceit and propaganda they use as they try to 'socially engineer' the masses.


    It is these 'fifth columnists' who created the Patrick Moore's, the Patrick Michael's, the Bjorn Lomborg's and who gave such as the Heartland Institute such large amounts of ammunition to doubt the integrity of the genuine, reasonable scientifically based policies. Bear in mind that one of the very earliest politicians to warn about the dangers of potential climate change in public and political circles was the rather far right Margaret Thatcher

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VnAzoDtwCBg&t=30s

    and it was the far left who more or less started denialism off by insinuating that it was all fake science to justify shutting coal mines down, to handicap the development of the Third World and to accelerate the expansion of nuclear power. It was only afterwards that the left realised that if they became anti-global warming they could have a powerful stick to hit Big Industry, the international monetary system etc and slip their desired political outcomes in by the back door. That change in outlook in turn created the right wing/libertarian opposition - first to the 'solutions' the left claimed were mandatory and then their political 'chess moves'  generated out and out deceitful-but-plausible-sounding denialism to undermine the legitimate science by appealing to the U.S.'s conservative blue collar population that it was actually a reds-under-the-bed attempt to undermine their freedoms.


    Here is the very rational Zion Lights explaining why she disavowed her earlier extreme, ideology based, environmental beliefs and how she sees those beliefs as counter-productive these days.


    https://quillette.com/2021/05/31/the-sad-truth-about-traditional-environmentalism/


    Whether activists like it or not, I believe it was the environmental organisations excessive and unwarranted views, and the political engineering of (some) of their leaders, which led them to make simplistic and ill thought out (or craftily planned) demands for policy changes which would have been disastrous. A far more likely explanation of Big Fossil Fuel's stance and acts is not that their execs were real denialists possessed of a psychopathic disregard for humanity but that their adverts and public facing statements were their attempt to resist politicians moving against them and implementing the type of draconian policies called for by those with fallacious, or at least well over-the-top, views in some cases motivated by an underlying 'closet' political ideology - Smash Capitalism! - that the public would never actually vote for if it was expressed out loud.


    BTW, are there are any links to Big Oil documents which actually deny the science in the way that deniers do - it's the Sun - it's cooling - it's cosmic rays - the temperature record was tampered with - it's all fraud etc? I've never seen any actual full-on denialism in them. That's why I made my point that the words in the documents have likely been mischaracterised by Oreskes and Supran et al to insinuate and attribute motives which really weren't there.


    I think you really shouldn't characterise Stephen Schneider's views as "the opinion of one person". He was a very well regarded early climate scientist, who was also acknowledged as a brilliant communicator of that science to the public. His (unedited by denialists) quote which I gave is still a very accurate statement on the science and its communication and comprehension by the public. Unfortunately, in this area, he is almost peerless these days. Richard Alley, Katharine Hayhoe, Gavin Schmidt and Michael Mann are really good but, in my opinion, they are not quite at the same level. Schneider could take on a hostile audience of denialists and either defeat them or make their apparently plausible views look as irrational as they really are.


    BTW, Phillipe, I actually referred to the CMIP6 models (not the CMP5 ones, as you incorrectly stated I did) running (considerably) too hot. This is not contentious. Ask Gavin Schmidt or any other similarly credentialled scientist...

  • Book review: Bad science and bad arguments abound in 'Apocalypse Never' by Michael Shellenberger

    One Planet Only Forever at 01:17 AM on 12 August, 2020

    The follow-up to my earlier comments regarding this book can be distilled to primarily referring to the following informative books:



    • "The Age of Sustainable Development", by Jeffrey D. Sachs, Columbia University Press, 2015 (also MOOC with the same name).

    • "Reasons and Persons", by Derek Parfit, Oxford University Press, 1984

    • "Capital and Ideology", by Thomas Piketty, Harvard University Press, 2020 (original French book published in 2019 by Éditions du Seuil)

    • "Manufacturing Consent" Edward S. Herman, New York: Pantheon Books, 1988 updated 2002. (Movie of same name 1992)

    • "Propaganda in the Information Age", by Alan MacLeod, Routledge (Taylor and Francis Group), 2019 (Update regarding the "Manufacturing Consent" Propaganda Model)


    This set of references establish understanding that applies to a vast range of subjects, not just climate change.


    It is possible to understand the unacceptability of the stories made-up by the likes of Shellenberger, Lomborg, Moncton regarding actions required to limit harmful climate change impacts on future generations (and people like Pinker regarding other issues who defend the developed economic system and the glory of technology as the solution for everything). And that explanation also applies to almost all resistance to the understanding of the need for major systemic corrections to achieve and improve on the Sustainable Development Goals. And it is undeniable that the best possible future for humanity requires achieving and improving on all of the Sustainable Development Goals, the sooner the better. Read "The Age of Sustainable Development" by Jeffrey D. Sachs to obtain a broader understanding of how harmful and unsustainable the current developed activity of humanity has become.


    A major problem is the pursuit of knowledge for personal benefit, which is an aspect of the problematic pursuit of personal benefit (Self Interest). It is almost impossible to research the motives of people who present stories (any and all information presentation is storytelling - even science research reports). The best that can be done is to develop and present what appears to be the best explanations of what can be observed to be going on resulting in the best science, news reporting, fiction, documentaries, opinions, etc.


    In "Reasons and Persons" Derek Parfit presents a robust evaluation concluding that allowing self interests to govern behaviours cannot be expected to produce good sustainable results. In "Capital and Ideology" Thomas Piketty presents the history of unsustainable incorrect and misleading self interested storytelling that is made up by the winners of wealth and power. And in "Manufacturing Consent" Edward S. Herman presents the Propaganda Model which explains how free market systems can develop harmful misleading incorrect storytelling to excuse the harmfully incorrect desires and actions of the wealthy and powerful. In "Propaganda in the Information Age" Alan MacLeod presents an update regarding the Propaganda Model showing that the internet and social media have not corrected the problem of harmfully misleading storytelling.


    Unsustainable and harmful ways of doing things are almost always quicker, easier and cheaper than the sustainable less harmful alternatives. Cost as a primary driver of deciding what is liked (popular and profitable) makes it harder to limit the harm done by pursuers of personal benefit, including making it harder to limit the harmful making-up of stories that excuse unsustainable and harmful activities, increasingly hard to do as things become more popular and profitable.


    Climate change is only one of many examples of that conflict. That conflict exists regarding almost every action that would help achieve and improve the Sustainable Development Goals. And that conflict includes academic-type stories being made-up that are not accurate helpful explanations of what is really going on or the required helpful harm-reducing corrections of what has developed popularity or profitability.

  • 2018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #5

    michael sweet at 21:32 PM on 28 February, 2018

    What MA Rdger said times two.

    "You fail to differentiate between a bunch of AGW deniers and a grown-up call for more action to mitigate AGW" describes NorrisM perfectly.

    Lomborg has no expertise in environmental matters.  He has a degree in Political Science, not science.  He has never published a peer reveiwed paper on an environmental issue.   He has gained fame for claiming expertise he does not have and writing OP-ED pieces that support raping the planet.

    It is typical for deniers to cite an industry shill as an environmental expert.

  • 2018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #5

    NorrisM at 14:07 PM on 28 February, 2018

    michael sweet @ 169

    I clearly had it wrong. 

    First of all, the "Council of Scientists" as I called it is the "Copenhagen Consensus" which is a collection of scientists who do believe that the best expenditure of funds to battle climate change is to invest significant capital into research into green technologies rather than cutting off the public's present use of fossil fuels without viable alternatives for major sectors of the economy and world (read storage for one example).

    But here is the connection to Lord Stern. 

    On Lomborg's website referencing the Paris Agreement and what it does or does not achieve here was a reference to the Apollo Program which has the same aims:

    "Copenhagen Consensus has consistently argued for a R&D-driven approach. Fortunately, more people are recognizing that this approach is cheaper and much more likely to succeed –including the Global Apollo Program which includes Sir David King, Lord Nicholas Stern, Lord Adair Turner and Lord John Browne."

    So Lord Stern is not part of Bjorn Lomborg's Copenhagen Consensus but is part of a group which seems to have the same objectives.

  • 2018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #5

    michael sweet at 09:07 AM on 28 February, 2018

    Norrism:

     I get nothing from GOOGLEing Lomborg Stern "Council of Scientists" and also nothing from Lomborg "council of Scientists".  Can you provide a link supporting your unbelievable claim that Lord Stern would work with Lomborg.

    It is easy to make false claims.  Please support your claims.

  • 2018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #5

    NorrisM at 02:40 AM on 28 February, 2018

    scaddenp @ 162

    About the only two things I took away from my undergraduate economics degree was the present value of money and the importance of assumptions in any analysis (ie my joke about the economist's contribution to opening the can of beans on the desert island).

    The arguments of what discount rates to use render any discussion about future costs of climate change very problematic.  The assumptions used again make the discussion very difficult.

    Again, my point is that governments have a lot more resources than we do to come up with some estimates of the costs but we once again meet up with the problem that there is no world body that has any power to do anything about it.

    The information that China's population is more at risk than any other nation state is somewhat interesting.  If there is one thing the oligarchy in China is concerned about is staying in power and keeping its nation united.  This should be a strong incentive for China to come up with innovative ways to deal with climate change knowing that they have 50 million people to protect. 

    I hate to say it but I look at Florida with some amusement.  Did they only discover yesterday that some areas are only 12" above sea level? Or was it not a problem when it was 15" perhaps 10 years ago?  I have no idea what the annual rate of sea level change is in this area. 

    As for Lomborg, I have read his book and I recall the reception I received on this website bt making reference to him.

    I might be mistaken but I believe that Stern has joined Lomborg's "council of scientists".   I am sure I will be corrected if I am wrong on this.  Even if that is the case I am not sure what that means as to whether any of his views have changed.  I do not follow Lomborg's website.

  • 2018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #5

    scaddenp at 12:26 PM on 27 February, 2018

    NorrisM - try the Stern review. Attempts to show otherwise (eg Lomborg) can only do so by not talking about risk and positing impacts lower than anything in the IPCC studies. There have been numerous criticism of Stern for discounting rates, but also plenty of concern (even from Stern himself) that in hindsights, the risks were underestimated.

    Maybe a new analysis might do better, but to make a convincing case for not mitigating, someone needs to publish a study with that kind of breadth that also makes a realistic assessment of risks and impacts. So far, I have only seen hand-wavy stuff or over-sold critiques of Stern that dont change the overall conclusion.

  • Climate and energy are becoming focal points in state political races

    Bob Loblaw at 02:22 AM on 22 October, 2017

    Lomborg using Richard Tol as a source? Bad idea. Tol is an outlier in these sorts of studies, and he's had to issue multiple corrections to gremlin-filled papers he's written (and refused to acknowledge the impact of other errors in them).

    [Andrew Gelman Critque of Tol's work]

    [Retraction Watch comments on Tol paper]

    Using Tol's lowball estimate is another case of hoping all the uncertainties fall in your favour.

    You are continuing to rely on some very unreliable sources, NorrisM.

  • Climate and energy are becoming focal points in state political races

    Bob Loblaw at 02:12 AM on 22 October, 2017

    NorrisM:

    Thank you for answering the questions I posed. They were not, however, rhetorical questions ("asked to make a point rather than to elicit an answer."), buth rather genuine questions asked as a sequence in an attempt to focus the discussion. Think of them more as the Socratic Method, searching for areas of agreement and areas of disagreement.

    First point (minor) - I think you missed a question. There were 8, and you answered 7. I think that you missed one somewhere in 3-6, as your answers 6 and 7 look more like answers to my questions 7 and 8.

    Second point: Koonin's statements about sea level rise. I linked to the full IPCC report chapter 13 in comment 122, In the table of contents, it lists the following sections:

    13.4 Projected Contributions to Global Mean Sea Level

    13.4.1 Ocean Heat Uptake and Thermal Expansion

    13.4.2 Glaciers

    13.4.3 Greenland Ice Sheet

    13.4.4 Antarctic Ice Sheet

    13.4.5 Anthropogenic Intervention in Water Storage on Land

    13.5 Projections of Global Mean Sea Level Rise

    13.5.1 Process-Based Projections for the 21st Century.

    13.5.2 Semi-Empirical Projections for the 21st Century.

    13.5.3 Confidence in Likely Ranges and Bounds

    13.5.4 Long-Term Scenarios.

    Your statement that "The IPCC report does not reconcile how they get to 1m if Koonin is asking the question" is simply wrong. The IPCC does give an extensive discussion of the literature regarding where these estimates come from. That leaves two possibiities, in my mind:

    1. Koonin is ignorant on this subject.
    2. Koonin is intentionally selecting certain forms of evidence and avoiding others in order to present a particular case.

    Regardless of which of 1 or 2 is correct, Koonin has no credibility as an honest reviewer on this issue. #1 can be fixed by learning (on Koonin's part). #2 is much more difficult to change. You can, however, learn that some of the sources you are using are not trustworthy.

    On question 2: yes, the IPCC may be wrong. Sea level rise by 2100 may be less than stated by the IPCC. It also may be more. There are people studying sea level rise that think the IPCC summary is too conservative - that there is a real risk of large ice sheet destabilisation by 2100 that will lead to 2-3m or more of sea level rise.

    I will state again: a risk management plan that assumes all uncertainties will fall in my favour is a Bad Plan.

    On answers 6 and 7:

    • You say "another consideration is that this is going to occur gradually over a period of a few generations." . It is already happening now. It is going to get worse. Although it is impossible to say "this extreme weather event was caused by global warming", the number and frequency of such events is increasing according to many measures and attribution studies. What used to be rare events are now becoming common. Insurance costs are rising, and government emergency bailout funds are running deep in the red.
    • Yes, Florida's real estate values may go down. People may rebuild elsewhere. People also may convince politicians to provide federal dollars and rebuild. That is what the current US habit is: federally-funded flood "insurance", which takes money from all tax-payers and gives it to the rich along the coasts.That transfer is a subsidy to those on the coast. The current market is already distorted.
    • Now, what do we do about Bangladesh? Can they afford to move, and where to? You mention Lomborg: he might have an ounce of credibility if he actually was making an effort to improve lives through those other methods. He is not. He is a terrible role model, and he distorts many, many facts in presenting his arguments. He is not a credible source of information.
    • You admit that the problem is global. It needs global solutions, and agreements such as the Copenhagen Accord are a step in the right direction. The U.S. has backed out, and the U.S. is risking being left behind. If the rest of the world decarbonizes and the U.S. ends up isolated, it may become the "developing world".
    • On paying other countries to help them  adapt vs. letting them move wherever they want. Refusing to pay, and refusing to let them move is basically telling them "I don't care what I've done to you, and I won't help in any way". If things get bad enough, you simply won't be able to stop them moving,and refugee problems will become far worse. We'll be faced with mass migrations, mass deaths, etc. Look at how many people already die trying to get from Cuba to the U.S. or across the Mediterranean Sea to Europe.
    • You seem to focus on costs of dealing with the mess. Wouldn't it be nice if we could find a way to prevent the problem?

    Nigelj resonds to you with the statement "Then you follow up with skeptical climate statements ". Here are some specific examples (quotes in italics), with my comments in []:

    • "vague future costs."
      • [Failure on your part to accept uncertainty and properly Risk Manage]
    • "...based upon predictions of future temperature increases which are largely based upon models."
      • [Failure on your part to understand how science makes predictions. Usually the skeptical myth  "based on models" implies based on computer models, which is not our only source of information. If it means based on any sort of model, then unfortunately all of science uses models of one sort or another, so rejected models writ large means rejecting science.]
    • "distorting our economy with a very large carbon tax.",
      • [Failure on your part to understand that externailities are already a distortion. A carbon tax tries to remove that distortion.]
    • " I do NOT think that a large carbon tax beyond the costs of pollution"
      • [Failure on your part to understand that releasing CO2 and causing sea level rise, increased drought, increased heavy rainfall, etc. is a form of pollution.]

    Throw in a few "China is a problem and China should pay" arguments, and you are reading from the Climate Denier's Playbook - although I'm sure it doesn't seem that way to you. You have trusted a lot of very unreliable sources of information, and it is affecting your view.

     

  • Climate and energy are becoming focal points in state political races

    NorrisM at 01:58 AM on 22 October, 2017

    nigelj @ 130

    My main point is that I do not think the politicians of the world, not just the United States, are really going to impose carbon taxes beyond what is politically acceptable so it is wasted time talking about imposing carbon taxes based upon theoretical calculations of SCC.  And they are theoretical when there is so much disagreement on what and what should not be put into the calculation.  If you want an IPCC statement which effectively acknowledges this I can point to the section of Chapter 10 of the IPCC 2014 Report which I have read in its entirety.

    Beyond the US, look what has been happening in the UK with Brexit and with the rise of ultra right wing parties throughout mainland Europe.  Suggesting that carbon taxes will be imposed on these nations to compensate for future SCC in other parts of the world is close to fantasy. The Paris Agreement is the perfect example of how politicians operate.  All the real cuts are after 2030 when these politicians are long gone.  Meanwhile they get reelected based upon grandiose statements that do not cost their electorate in the pocket book. 

    So my principal point is that you do what is politically feasible.  Impose a carbon tax on the cost of pollution.  Of course China is onboard for this.  If the Communist Party does not do something about pollution they will lose their grip on power.  They know this.   

    The other thing to do is convince the public that wind and solar power (for now I am leaving alone nuclear power) can viably compete with FF, using FF as a back up source of base load power.  Replace coal plants with natural gas which emits one-half the CO2 into the atmosphere.  I appreciate that this last point is somewhat problematic with Trump in power but I do not think the Republicans are all in favour of coal.

    One final point, ensure that the carbon tax is dividended back to the people.  If you keep it to distort the economy by investing it in RE then you lose half the electorate.  I reread section of the Lomborg book where he asks Richard Tol (I think he is an IPCC contributor) as to the "pollution cost" of carbon.  I thought the range was $14 to $20/t.  In fact, Tol uses the range $2/t to $14/t.  I appreciate the low range of the IPCC for (I assume) pollution costs only is$18/t so I may be high on my suggested $30/t.  My sense is that our economy can handle $30/t so I am not retracting that figure but I think that is the high end.   

  • Climate and energy are becoming focal points in state political races

    NorrisM at 09:52 AM on 21 October, 2017

    Bob Loblaw @ 115

    You have posed a number of questions for which you have asked my views.  Although I will give you my personal views, you seem to miss my main point that it is the American public which you have to convince to the rhetorical questions you have posed.  If you do not get the American public onside, then for sure you will not get Mr. Trump and the Republicans onside. 

    But I am happy to give you my personal views for whatever value that is:

    1.  Agree that AGW is causing increased sea levels.  I agree that the IPCC has predicted a best estimate of 1m by 2100.  Based upon the questions posed in the APS panel conducted by Koonin from information extracted from the IPCC 2013 assessment sea levels are rising at a rate of 3 mm/yr which translates to 9.8 inches on a "linear basis".  The IPCC report does not reconcile how they get to 1m if Koonin is asking the question.  If the answer were in IPCC 2013 assessment then Koonin would not have suggested that it would take a rise of 12 mm/yr from 2014 to 2100 to reach 1m.

    2. Completely agree with this statement IF the IPCC is right.  If the rise in the next 83 years is only at 3 mm/yr I do not agree with this statement.

    3. Completely agree with this statement.

    4.  Completely agree with this statement.

    5.  Completely agree with this statement.

    6.  In a previous reply to you I have said that SCC gets "complicated" once you step past actual health costs related to pollution.  This statement is an example of that.  Poor countries clearly need help.  And one question is who should help them (see below).  But another consideration is that this is going to occur gradually over a period of a few generations.  People will adjust by moving away from the rising waters.  This is not Noah's flood (metaphor only).  If there is less land and therefore there are less children born, that will be a natural effect.  By the way, the same goes for Florida and its $1 Trillion of real estate.   Too bad Florida.  You have had a great run but we do not have any obligation to build a massive wall for you.  If it makes sense for you to do so then fine but do not expect Federal money to do so.  Over the next 100 years the gradual value of that real estate will go down (is that a "cost" you would like to include in SCC - I doubt it).  Perhaps wealthy people will now retire to Florida will invest and spend their time in Mexico.  The Mexicans will welcome them with open arms.  They could use the development.  But back to the poor countries.  I actually think like Bjorn Lomborg that there are many other ways of improving the lives of the poor in many more efficient ways than building dikes or distorting our economy with a very large carbon tax.  These are just my views on this comment.  Whether you can get the American public onside to do so which is the real relevant issue is entirely another question.  I personally think there is not a chance in the world of doing so even with a Democratic government.  Many Americans are not even ready to agree that all of their fellow Americans should have a basic level of medical coverage guaranteed.  Are they going to spend billions of dollars on others when they will not even protect their own?  There is not a President past or future who will go where the American public do not want to go unless something like the bombing of Pearl Harbor occurs.

    7.  Completely agree. But again this is where it gets "complicated".  If you want to say that Americans in Chicago should pay for costs on each coast (leaving aside the wealthy Floridians) then fine.  But if you are saying that the US or Canada should pay for building dikes around some South Pacific island that would otherwise disappear, I am out.   These are very difficult philosophical issues dealing with suffering around the world.  Are you in favour of the right of the poor of the world to immigrate to whatever country they can make it to?  There is an "argument" that this should be so.  But as soon as you say there have to be limits to immigration, then you are recognizing that the boundaries of a nation state mean something.  Part of that is how much that nation state will pay to other nations based upon vague future costs based upon predictions of future temperature increases which are largely based upon models.

    Although since I have got "hooked" as a climate junkie I do not read as many books, I have recently read a book by Charles Kupchan entitled "No One's World".  Kupchan is a Professor at Georgetown University and is a fellow of the Council on Foreign Relations (Foreign Affairs journal).  His premise is that our future world will be one where there is no one or two nations that have hegemony in the world. 

    On page 81 thereof (citations are at the back of the book) he comes up with some astounding figures on the comparisons of steel production (read "big" GWGs) of the US, China and India since 1980.  In 1980 the US produced about 100 MM tons of steel that after 2008 dropped to about 80 MM tons and has stayed stable at that rate.  Over the same period Chinese production rose from around 40 MM tons/yr to 600 MM tons/yr.  India went from 10 to 65 MM tons/yr.

    It is not a coincidence as to why CO2 emissions massively increased over this period.  Most of it came from the "developing countries" and the IPCC expects this to be the case in the future.

    So who pays for the "poor"?  Is China still part of the "poor".  On a per capital basis, probably it is.   Do we write a cheque to China?  Or should China be writing a cheque? 

    When it comes to calculating the SCC of carbon these are some of the "complicated" issues that I personally do not think will ever get resolved.

    So if you want to say that Nero fiddled while Rome burned, you may be right but I do NOT think that a large carbon tax beyond the costs of pollution is the way to go.       

  • Climate and energy are becoming focal points in state political races

    NorrisM at 00:16 AM on 9 October, 2017

    Bob Loblaw @ 62

    I am now back to somewhere where I can reference the material I took along with me to read on my holiday.

    You have asked for a reference for my use of an $18/tonne cost for the direct costs of pollution.

    At www.ipcc.ch/report/srren you will be able to reference the IPCC 2014 Report on Mitigation and Costs which was kindly provided by either you or another contributor to this website. Please refer to Chapter 10 Section 10.6.2 entitled “Review of studies on external costs and benefits”. This section reviews the number of studies that have evaluated the social cost of carbon (SCC). It is very clear from this discussion that there is a great amount of disagreement as to what should and should not be incorporated into arriving at the “SCC” with ranges from $17/t, to $90/t to $350/t.

    Here is what I think is a good summary of things from that section:

    "A German study (Krewitt and Schlomann, 2006) addressing external costs uses the values of USD 17/t CO2 , USD 90/t CO2 and USD 350/t CO2 (€ 14,70 and 280/t CO2 ) for the lower limit, best guess and upper limit for SCC, respectively, referring to Downing et al. (2005) and Watkiss and Downing (2008). The study assesses that the range of the estimated SCC values covers three orders of magnitude, which can be explained by the many different choices possible in modelling and approaches to quantifying the damages. As a benchmark lower limit for global decision making, they give a value of about USD2005 17/t CO2 (£35/t CO2 ). They do not give any best guess or upper limit benchmark value, but recommend that further studies should be done on the basis of long-term climate change mitigation stabilization levels."

    Obviously, my reference to $18/t was off from the $17/t lower limit which I quoted in my post which you criticized. But I did not make this up.

    I know you are not a fan of Lomborg but in his book, he asks an IPCC contributor to the "cost section" (he gives his name) as to what he thinks is his "best guess" as to effective "pollution costs" and I know that figure was below $20/t.

    I suspect that the “lower limit” is in fact a “cost” related to pollution and the upper limit is throwing everything into the calculation including all costs regarding sea level rises. My point was to reference pollution only as a basic starting point.

    You will see that these latter studies (Downing and Watkiss and Downing) only reference a “lower limit” and do not even give a “best guess” or “upper limit” value but recommend further studies should be done.

    So I believe that the use of $18/t for direct pollution costs was a reasonable one to use.

    I see that since my post to which you replied that there have been other figures used. Once again, the real issue is what is included in that estimate. The assumptions matter. Until the IPCC provides any more recent updates, all the rest are just “new studies” not yet commented on by the IPCC.

    I would be happy to use $30/t just to ensure that all these costs are included.  This is something you could "sell to the public" without getting into any issues of what climate change is and is not doing to our world (remember, the US public is not "sold" on what climate scientists are telling them - see Pew Research 2016).  It allows us to put a "cost" on carbon that we can clearly understand which perhaps puts fossil fuels on a level playing field with other technologies.

  • Climate and energy are becoming focal points in state political races

    Bob Loblaw at 10:54 AM on 5 October, 2017

    NorrisM: "Tom13 is discussing the US tax situation regarding subsidies under the US tax code."

    That may be what he wants to discuss, but from my perspective he is dodging the discussion on carbon taxes. He's claimed that they are just a wealth transfer, He's now gone "Look! Squirrel!" and started talking about subsidies. You've fallen for it.

    ...but while we are on the subject of subsidies, the list at the web page given by nijelj@56 does not mention royalty reductions (AFAICT). When I lived in Alberta, one of the favourite government actions to promote oil and gas activity was royalty reduction programs such as this one. To put it simply, the people of Alberta, who own the gas and oil, sell it more cheaply than at regular market rate. As this is run through government, it sounds an awful lot like a subsidy to me. The government isn't feeding money into gas and oil, but it is taking out less than it would normally. Gas and oil are on sale.

    In fact, such reduced-rate subsidies are at the heart of the never-ending US-Canada softwood lumber dispute that has reared its head again. One of the frequent US claims is that Canada's low stumpage fees (payments to government for cutting timber on Crown land) constitute a subsidy that the US considers unfair, and the US places tariffs on wood products as an anti-dumping action.

    As to your claim of an IPCC carbon cost of only $18/tonne - that seems awfully low to me. This Environment Canada site gives estimated costs of $34/t in 2010 rising to $75/t in 2050 as central estimates, with 95th percentile estimates going from $131/t to $320/t.

    ..but you used the phrase "...the IPCC ballparks this former cost at ..." [bolding mine]. Why did you use the word "former"? What are you implying? Is this only the cost of damage so far, for what has been emitted so far? Does your estimate ignore the future costs of previously-emitted carbon?

    Please provide a source for your $18/t number. Your "understanding" isn't a very strong argument. And what Lomborg says isn't worth an ounce of spit.

  • Climate and energy are becoming focal points in state political races

    NorrisM at 18:29 PM on 4 October, 2017

    Bob Loblaw @ 25

    Tom13 is discussing the US tax situation regarding subsidies under the US tax code.  I am in Canada and can only reference the Canadian situation.  In that I am involved in the Canadian oil and gas business, I can certainly say that the only "subsidy" that the oil and gas industry receives is by receiving a "deduction" for exploration and development expenditures which, in accounting terms" is on capital account and not ordinarily deducted from income in calculating same for accounting purposes.  But, in accounting, capital ultimately gets deducted from the calculation of income from deductions for depreciation (buildings) and resources (depletion).

    So the only "subsidy" is the accelerated deduction received from deducting depletion at a faster rate under the Income Tax Act in Canada through deductions of oil and gas expenditures (CEE, CDE, COGPE).  With the exception of dry hole drilling expenditures (CEE), these have to be deducted over a number of years, usually on a 30% per year on a declining balance basis.

    Therefore, the only "subsidy" is the difference in the "time value of money" which certainly is not irrelevant.  But logically, deducting dry holde expenditures, as and when expended, seems to be the right thing.  In Canada, the Trudeau government is gradually whittling down the 100% CEE deductions, but retaining the 30% per year CDE deductions.

    As for Bob Loblaw's point, when it comes to a carbon tax on fossil fuels, I think you have to make a distinction between the costs of fossil fuels in harming the environment from a pollution standpoint from those unkown and speculative calculations of rising sea levels etc.  My understanding is that the IPCC ballparks this former cost at something around $18 per tonne.  Even Bjorn Lomborg agrees with a carbon tax at this level.

    Carbon taxes beyond this level are proposed for an entirely different purpose.  They are imposed to discourage the use of fossil fuels.  Whether this is the proper approach is an entirely different issue.  Lomborg and others suggest that it is not.   

  • Correcting Warren Meyer on Forbes

    Rbrooks502 at 03:50 AM on 27 September, 2017

    I searched the website for an article by Gary Novak and came up empty. Self proclaimed Independent Scientist. Over the past 72 hours I read several papers and articles both for and against. Articles from NASA, the above mentioned "It's the Sun", reports from the Sierra Club, Lomborg.com, Naturalnews.com, the IPCC, EPA, David Biello of Scientific America and Yale, as well as others. I would like to see the response regarding Gary Novak's paper listed below. There are two links regariding his work. 

    Honeycutt @43 You are right regarding Neil DeGrasse Tyson.
    "The great thing about science is, it's true whether or not you believe it." But since we are talking about a constant influence of a new set of eyes, Science will show that this statement was wrong. If he had said this back in 1100 AD, 1400 AD, 1600 AD, and virtually any other time we would see that Science has been proven wrong consistantly. After all, the earth is not flat, and the earth is not the center of the universe. Science's job is to evolve and get smarter if you will. It is not to take hard black and white stances that can not see further than the current technologies or limited modelling. So here is Novak's work.

    LINK1

    LINK2

    I also discovered that looking at the list of papers by Biello over the last 10 years or so, and overlaying it on the data that I have consumed both here and other locations, it would appear that we are too late, and if the EIA is correct looking towards 2040, we should expect that we are screwed anyway based on thier findings. So should I pack my bags and move to the south pole with a bag of seeds? 

    LINK3

     I dont think I will look into this further, I would like to find the measureing sites that are used to CO2 for example as well as looking at the math. So far it is only cursory in my searches but I am held to the thought that if someone like myself who is novice and enters into this line of research, wouldnt it be wiser to be less derogitory to us and more instead be more supportive and offer more solutions than the Paris Accords. Solutions that are not only logical but are cost effective and motivator skeptics like myself to get on board with your agenda. For me, you have to walk us through the science better and more convincingly. 

    The last charts that I could find for example regarding what countries are producing what in terms of CO2 date back to 2009. Almost a decade old. Along with that is this logic that seems to permeate the research saying that we contributed 336 million tons CO2 from 2000-2006. Making it 1/3 of the maximum amount that we can produce up to 2030 when we must show a reversal. Meaning that if 2007-2013 represents another 1/3 of the maximum amount, and again from 2014-2020, we are just 2 years away from being screwed anyway. Witht that being said, Biello's report show that we are just not going to make the cut off regardless of what we do now short of turning off virtually all polluting products like trucks, cars, farming equipment, concrete manufacturers etc.

    LINK4

    So allow me to take you up on your offer regarding the challenge of me being willing to learn. Can we start with Novak's articles and move forward from there so that I can stay linear in my research. 

  • Denying Hurricane Harvey’s climate links only worsens future suffering

    NorrisM at 09:31 AM on 7 September, 2017

    Can someone explain to me how Michael Mann, known as a paleontologist measuring tree rings, et al, suddenly becomes an expert in jetstreams so he can opine on how climate change is exacerbating extreme natural events?  

    On another point, attempting to tie the first major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico in 12 years to climate change is a bit of a stretch.  So it does not "cause" them (no big ones for 12 years) but "exacerbates" them.  Obviously any hurricane will be impacted slightly by small changes in sea level and slight increases in water vapour but are there any studies to say by how much?  Is this 1% or 20%?  If it is only 1% then this just looks like  "piggybacking".   And if there have been no studies perhaps that should be stated. This just seems to be another event to point to disaster pending thanks to climate change when we are really just dealing with a common occurrence in this area.

    The biggest problem is the lack of preparedness for these kinds of storms (a point made by Lomberg in Cool It).  That is what causes a great deal of the damage.  But if people choose to live in areas where hurricanes are common, you have to expect to live with the consequences.  Why are they allowing people to build in flood zones?  If you do not want to build dikes to protect these areas (passing the cost on to those owning the properties protected by the dikes) then leave these areas to the birds.  Probably best to leave them to the birds anyways.  Good way to deal with encroaching sea levels.  Give up the lands to the birds. 

    What I find astounding is that 85% of homeowners did not have insurance for flood damage.  Do these homeowners not have mortgages?  I find it incredible that lenders would not require proof of flood damage protection in the insurance policies.  I bet they will in the future!   

    But another point made by Lomborg in his book relates to the number of deaths caused by natural disasters.  If this storm had occurred here 100 years ago (even with a much smaller population), how many deaths would it have caused?  Thanks to our technological progress there were  mercifully very few even when Mother Nature threw a big punch.  The loss of life could have been even less had the proper planning taken place. 

  • New study finds that climate change costs will hit Trump country hardest

    One Planet Only Forever at 00:49 AM on 1 September, 2017

    NorrisM,

    As an Engineer with an MBA I am absolutely certain that EROEI has very limited relevance to real world considerations.

    EROEI may matter when comparing alternative ways of using a specific source of energy to produce the means to produce more energy. However, it is not relevant to the comparison of different energy sources. And it would not even be the primary consideration for evaluating the aternative ways of producing energy from a source of energy.

    EROEI is a recently developed term. And its use to comparison different sources of energy appears to have been created to try to justify what cannot otherwise be justified. It is similar to the use of measures of Total Wealth or Average Income to declare if a society and its economy are 'improving'. The distribution of the wealth and income and the quality of life experienced by the least fortunate member of the society are more pertinent measures. Trying to get people focused on Totals and Averages obscures things and limits the general understanding of waht is actually going on.

    Ultimately, the sustainability of an economic activity has to be the first consideration. And climate science is adding valuable information and understanding for use in those evaluations of sustainability. Any society or economic system that wants to have a better future with lasting improvement and growth has to focus on ensuring that only truly sustainable activity is allowed to compete for popularity and profitability.

    Major corrections are required,and the socio-economic games that developed them cannot be expected to correct themselves.

    History is full of examples of the damaging consequences for "Others (not the ones who Temporarily get away with Winning the most through the damaging unsustainable pursuits)".

    Climate science, and many other pursuits of increased awareness and better understanding, have been exposing the fatal flaws of the games people play. And many of the Big Winners "Do Not Like It" and don't want the awareness and better understanding to become more popular.

    Back to Lomborg. There is money to be made helping the selfish among the Rich people maintain support for unjustified beliefs and perceptions that they can benefit from. There is not much money to be made, and potential serious negative personal consequences (not just vicious unjustified attacks on a person's character), by people developing and promoting awareness and better understanding that is contrary to the interests of selfish very wealthy people. Lomborg is almost certain to be playing in pursuit of personal gain.

    Disclosuer of personal interests: As a very fortunate resident of Alberta I would personally 'suffer a loss' if Alberta (and the rest of the world) changes in the ways I have mentioned regarding sustainable economic activity based on climate change considerations. I would have less opportunity to make a very high income and I would likely have to pay more taxes to fund a decent social safety net for the less fortunate. But I understand that high incomes related to fossil fuel burning activity is a temporary thing, unsustainable, not able to continue to be enjoyed by future generations in Alberta (with little true future value being cretaed today). I focused on the Responsible Professional Engineering role of ensuring that only 'acceptable options' were included in the comparison of alternative ways of achieving the stated objectives of the projects I was involved in. And as nigelj has mentioned, I had the responsibility to ensure that an unacceptable option was not 'deemed to be made acceptable' by being cheaper or quicker (no matter how much cheaper or quicker the alternative was).

  • New study finds that climate change costs will hit Trump country hardest

    Eclectic at 20:50 PM on 31 August, 2017

    NorrisM @62 & prior :

    you may not have noticed it, but your posts have become increasingly absurd.

    When you "make your case" by adducing extreme outliers such as Ehrlich's predictions or (minority) 1970's "Global Cooling" predictions, then you are arguing in a moronic and ridiculous manner.     What next : will you be saying that the case of Galileo shows that all modern science is wrong?     You seem to be too intelligent to be stooping to such illogical nonsense — so please, pull yourself together and "snap out of it". 

    This website is not WattsUpWithThat, where the comments columns typically contain frothing hysteria and the full gamut of logical fallacies (combined with insane Conspiracy Ideation).  Please go to WUWT if you wish to indulge in gutter-level rhetoric & illogicality.

    So, I beg you, please rein yourself in and put aside the disingenuous "concern" & nonsense.     The CO2/AGW situation is clear and straightforward.    "Renewable" electrical power generation [plus or minus the nuclear version] is urgently required to replace all fossil-fuel power generation.     Questions of EROI "efficiency" need to be viewed against the bigger picture — and to make a humorous but true analogy: at a fast cruising speed, a helicopter operates most efficiently cruising at an above-ground altitude of approximately 10 feet.  An efficient choice, but a far from wise one !

     

    Scaddenp @59 :

    "Personally I have problems with the aesthetics of major flooding, desertification, and lost beaches."

    Thank you for those wise words!  It shows up the absurdity of those Lomborg-like arguments which "cherry-pick" one leaf out of a whole forest.

  • New study finds that climate change costs will hit Trump country hardest

    michael sweet at 08:03 AM on 31 August, 2017

    NorrisM,

    The solutions Proect has documented in detail that Renewable energy is the cheapest way to provide all energy in the future.  Here is a summary (on SkS) of their proposal that I wrote.  Claims that renewable energy will be more expensive than fossil fuels are false, they are cheaper.

    Your argument comparing solar panel waste which can all be recycled, with radioactive nuclear waste that has to be sequestered for millions of years is absurd.  I will let other readers decide for themselves what they think.

    Your land area arguments are a red herring.  As NigelJ states, most of the land is farms with occasional wind turbines.  How much land is permanently sequestered by nuclear accidents in Russia and Japan??  Nuclear proponents always seem to forget the nuclear disasters.  Solar farms can be built in deserts or on other low value land (or existing buildings, parking lots and other structures).

    Turbines are sent by ships, just like other cargo.  Currently, old turbines in developed countries are being replaced by upgraded models.  The old turbines are still useful so they are rebuilt and sold as a cheap source of energy to the developing world.  When they reach the end of their lives they will be recycled.  Some people falsely argue that the turbines have worn out.

    Nuclear engineers have been promising cheap reactors since before I was born ("too cheap to meter").  I am 58 now and nuclear is bankrupt.  Your article describes the water cooled reactors that bankrupted Westinghouse.  Engineers describe them as "unbuildable".

    While reading background material on EROEI for solar and wind I found this article.  It responds to an article similar to the one you referenced that MARodgers links above and describes some of the many errors in the analysis.

    Just for starters, the data for solar panels comes from an article written in 2006 (updated in 2007) while the wind power data comes from a masters thesis published in 2004 and a paper from 1998.  These papers are also used in the article I linked above.  I don't know about where you live, but in the USA there have been significant developments in wind and solar since 1998 and 2006.  These data are updated yearly.  I do not know why the authors decided to use ancient data, but for me that disqualifies your reference.  It seems to me that the authors are trying to justify a conclusion, not reach a true answer.  Other readers can make their own judgements.  The article I link calculates an EROEI of above 10 for roof top solar in Switzerland.  Somewhere with better sun (say New Mexico) would have an EROEI of at least 20 for utility farms.  

    As for your excuse for not providing references, if you are too lazy to Google data and read the background you should not post to a forum that requires posters to support their arguments.  It is very time consuming for me to look up data to reply to your idle claims.  If you put in the time to research your claims maybe you would realize that they are specious.

    As I said before, nuclear supporters generally just post reams of false data and do not read the links that are posted in return.  They need to get over it.  Nuclear is bankrupt.  They cannot build a reactor on time and on a budget.  

    Current nuclear plants operation and maintenance alone are more than the total costs of a wind or solar facility including the mortgage for the renewable facility.  Current users in South Carolina pay 25% of their utility bills for nuclear plants that have been abandoned.  They will pay even more in the future as they are stiffed for the capitol costs of the abandoned plants.  Meanwhile wind and solar cause the price of energy to plummet where they are built.

    Lomborg argues that solar is not economic because the price of electricity plummets after solar facilities are built.  The solar facilities are making money and the electricity is cheaper.

    "People like to claim that green energy is already competitive. This is far from true. For instance, when solar energy is produced, it is all produced at the same time — when the sun shines. The energy thus floods the market and becomes less valuable. Models show that when solar makes up 15% of the market, the value of its electricity is halved. In California, when solar reaches 30% of the market, its value drops by more than two-thirds."

    Lomborg is just a shill for the fossil fuel industries.

  • New study finds that climate change costs will hit Trump country hardest

    nigelj at 05:52 AM on 31 August, 2017

    NorrisM @54

    "Does this not come down to Lomborg's principal thesis that per energy unit there will be a massive cost switching from fossil fuels to wind and solar that may not be the most efficient way of dealing with the impacts?

    Of course it revolves aroung Lombergs views,  and his thesis has not been accepted by his peers. Its his "opinion" and its wrong.

    I have already shown you in another post above that the costs of switching from fossil fuels to renewables are not massive. The use of the word massive is hyperbole and emotive.

    Numerous studies going back to the stern report have found the best way to address climate change is renewable energy. Lombergs alternative views are not accepted and this has been stated in various links given to you already.

    And do you think you can give me a straight answer to this: Why do you give credibility to a man whos book The Sceptical Environmentalist given it was found to be scientifically dishonest? You can find an account of this and source documentation under Lombergs wikipedia profile.

    "It hardly seems arguing that if you have energy densities like those suggested by the German scientists' study referenced in Smil's book Power Density that the cost of producing an energy unit from wind or solar has to be much greater."

    Stop talking theory and speculation. With respect just stop. Wind power is already one of the cheapest forms of electricity right now in America. This is the real world evidence. Just look up cost of electricity by source on wikipedia. Or read the articles below:

    www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jun/06/spectacular-drop-in-renewable-energy-costs-leads-to-record-global-boost

    www.renewable-energysources.com/

    cleantechnica.com/2017/01/22/renewables-now-cheapest-renewable-energy-costs-low-too-high/

     

    I can list 100 similar evaluations. Do a google search yourself. If you are not prepared to look at real world evidence, then you make your views redundant. You are a lawyer arent you? Dont you people look at evidence any more? When did that all change?

  • New study finds that climate change costs will hit Trump country hardest

    NorrisM at 04:35 AM on 31 August, 2017

    nigelj

    Does this not come down to Lomborg's principal thesis that per energy unit there will be a massive cost switching from fossil fuels to wind and solar that may not be the most efficient way of dealing with the impacts?  It hardly seems arguing that if you have energy densities like those suggested by the German scientists' study referenced in Smil's book Power Density that the cost of producing an energy unit from wind or solar has to be much greater.   

    michael sweet,

    I clearly acknowledge that the disposal of nuclear waste is something that has to be addressed.  The US did have a plan which got derailed because of politics.  But look at what Shellenberg has to say about the total waste contributed in volume between nuclear power and wind and solar power:

    "Renewables also require far more land and materials than nuclear power. California’s Diablo Canyon nuclear power plant produces 14 times as much electricity annually as the state’s massive Topaz Solar Farm and yet requires just 15 percent as much land. Since those vast fields of panels and mirrors eventually turn into waste products, solar power creates 300 times as much toxic waste per unit of energy produced as does nuclear power. For example, imagine that each year for the next 25 years (the average life span of a solar panel), solar and nuclear power both produced the same amount of electricity that nuclear power produced in 2016. If you then stacked their respective waste products on two football fields, the nuclear waste would reach some 170 feet, a little less than the height of the Leaning Tower of Pisa, whereas the solar waste would reach over 52,000 feet, nearly twice the height of Mount Everest."

    I obviously cannot back up these statements with research but if each person on this website had to do that each time then this website would solely  consist of experts.  I do not think that is the purpose of it.  It is to communicate to the public.

    How do you ship wind turbines economically to developing countries?  

    But is this not just avoiding the question of what is the ultimate cost of disposing of these wind turbines and solar panels in 25 years when they have come to the end of their useful life?  Do you just leave them in developing countries where they are not seen?  Back to Kevin Costner's Waterworld.

    As for your comment on nuclear power, another part of this article refers to a new type of nuclear power plant which is much less costly:

    "But a comprehensive study of nuclear power plant construction costs published in Energy Policy last year found that water-cooled nuclear reactors (which are far less expensive than non-water-cooled designs) are already cheap enough to quickly replace fossil fuel power plants."

    Trump has specifically referenced a reconsideration of nuclear power so I do not think the bankruptcy of Westinghouse means the end of a nuclear power discussion in the US.

    In about 2011, after first recommending a world carbon fee here is the second recommendation of James Hansen:

     " Second, the United States and China should agree to cooperate in rapid deployment to scale in China of advanced, safe nuclear power for peaceful purposes, specifically to provide clean electricity replacing aging and planned coal-fired power plants, as well as averting the need for extensive planned coal gasification in China, the most carbon-intensive source of electricity. China has an urgent need to reduce air pollution and recognizes that renewable energies cannot rapidly provide needed base-load electricity at large scale. The sheer size of China's electricity needs demands massive mobilization to construct modern, safe nuclear power plants, educate more nuclear scientists and engineers, and train operators of the power plants."

    Is this not a recognition that the problem of coal plants in China is insurmountable without turning to nuclear power?  I know you will say it is all different since 2011.  I appreciate that China signed the Paris Agreement but I highly doubt that the cost analysis has so massively changed since 2011.

    Where is the IPCC on the costs of conversion to wind and solar?  Do they even consider nuclear power?  One of the main criticisms of James Hansen for a solution solely based on renewables is that you have to have natural gas generating plants as a back up when the sun does not shine or the wind does not blow.

  • New study finds that climate change costs will hit Trump country hardest

    One Planet Only Forever at 03:55 AM on 31 August, 2017

    NorrisM2%1,

    Thankyou for providing more proof that 'unsustainable pursuits of benefit that create no lasting benefit for future generations, or produce levels of future benefit that are less than the challenges and costs that are potentially created, clearly should not be allowed to compete for popularity and profitability (evaluated from the perspective of future generations where the potential costs they face are not discounted relative to any legacy benefit they can be quite certain to obtain)'.

    Using EROEI's that ignore or discount the future costs create poor excuses to not behave better. Unless you can show me proven ways to fully neutralize nuclear waste, the waste is an infinite cost in a 'pursuit of a sustainable future for humanity' EROEI. And future costs need to be compared to future benefits to ensure a net-benefit, none of the game of claiming the future costs are less than current benefits so it is All Right (and certainly no discounting of those future costs for such a comparison). So for actions like coal burning there would need to be proof of the value of benefit into the future, and proof that the almost certain future benefit value (no big maybes allowed to be counted) more than offsets the potential costs created in the future by actions like burning coal today (not just some selected "known" costs like building sea walls only for the rich people's cities, and only building them high enough to only address a portion of future sea level rise - a serious, and easy to see as a poor excuse, flaw in Lomborg's "Cool It" evaluations - an even poorer excuse if those future costs are discounted).

    That was my point in earlier posts. Things need to change so that only understood to be sustainable pursuits are allowed to compete for popularity and profitability. Allowing less acceptable activity to compete gives those activities competitive advantages over the alternatives that are sustainable. Regulation and Carbon Fees help, but attitudes are what have to be changed.

    Striving to maintain incorrectly developed perceptions of prosperity is admirable, but only if they are maintained by a rapid correction of developed unsustainable activity.

    The supposedly most advanced (prosperous/wealthy) people, societies, and economies really need to start proving they deserve to be perceived as the most advanced.

    I look for Proof with Good Reason. I see lots of Poor Excuses - not just related to the changes of human activity required because of climate science.

  • New study finds that climate change costs will hit Trump country hardest

    Bob Loblaw at 10:15 AM on 30 August, 2017

    NorrisM:

    You are rapidly wearing out people's patience.

    Your arguments (well, the ones you are repeating) about the failings of the Paris agreement are the equivalent of someone saying "I need to get from New York to Los Angeles by tomorrow. I think I'll catch a cab to the airport", and having you say "the cab will never get you to Los Angeles by tomorrow". Not getting to the airport will pretty much guarantee that you won't get to Los Angeles. Taking it gives you a chance.

    Lomborg and his ilk have no interest in seeing a solution. They only want to maintain the status quo, and preventing people from taking that first step is part of their strategy. Their argument that you shouldn't take the cab would be more believable if they offered to give you a ride to the airport themselves, but they don't do that. It's all smoke and mirrors.

  • New study finds that climate change costs will hit Trump country hardest

    One Planet Only Forever at 05:59 AM on 30 August, 2017

    NorrisM@40,
    The Paris Agreement is the agreement to collectively act to limit the total human impacts to a rise of 2.0 C above pre-industrial levels.

    Therefore, it includes the agreement/understanding/requirement to increase initial commitments to achieve that goal.

    The actions to be taken are not stipulated. Therefore, the proposal by Lomborg to use tax money to fund research would fit as a Paris Agreement action. In keeping with achieving the objective the research funding should come from Carbon Fees. And, in keeping with the Paris Agreement objective, the amount would be increased as required to meet the 2 C impact limit.

    However, increasing the cost of trouble-making activity more effectively achieves the required changes of human activity by making the marketplace a helpful rather than harmful part of the program (harmful because getting away with a less acceptable way of doing something is easy to drum up popular support for, because it almost always cheaper/more profitable with little apparent consequence for the ones benefiting). A particular problem with funding research with tax money is the 'game' of deciding what groups get funded and ensuring that no personal gain is obtained through copyright of developments made due to public funding (those results should be copyright free). So it would be better to simply have a Carbon Fee that is fully rebated equally to everyone making the lowest impacting people the Winners, with the Fee increased as required to meet the objective.

    A key consideration has to be that what some people have developed is unsustainable perceptions of prosperity and wealthy through actions that harm the ability of others to live decently (especially harm done to future generations by creating/increasing the costs and challenges they have to deal with while having reduced access to potentially sustainably beneficial resources like buried ancient hydrocarbons). It is all deceptively defended by the claim that everyone freer to believe what they want and do as they please will produce a more decent result (an unsubstantiated Dogma of some Economists that has mounting evidence to show it is not actually justified because of the successful abuses of misleading marketing by deliberate trouble-makers pursuing what they want any way they can get away with).

    Undeniably the required result is advancement of humanity to sustainable better futures for everyone. The UN Sustainable Development Goals would achieve that objective and can be improved by substantive presentation of new evidence that had not been part of the massive basis used for establishing those Goals through the 45 years of collective international effort that developed them). Anyone attempting to defend perceptions of prosperity resulting from unsustainable damaging activities like the burning of fossil fuels has no real Good Reason, just Poor Excuses.

    There is more than enough opportunity for decent living by the current, and even increased, levels of global population. All that needs to be ended is the foolish unsubstantiated belief (only supported by Economist Dogma) that the developed economic competitions will eventually produce that result.

    Regulation or Penalties or Fees are undeniably required on unacceptable activity that must be ended sooner than the fatally flawed games of competition for popularity and profitability would end them (only ending when the opportunity to more easily get away with benefiting becomes more expensive or more difficult than alternatives or massive damage is done - not that without regulation the alternatives that are Cheaper and Easier are likely to be something similarly damaging and unsustainable).

    Some people who have developed unsustainable perceptions of prosperity and opportunity will perceive such measures as “Harmful to Them”. Others will understand what is required and change their minds to become helpful participants in advancing all of humanity to a lasting better future.

  • New study finds that climate change costs will hit Trump country hardest

    NorrisM at 03:55 AM on 30 August, 2017

    nigelj @ 38

    Thanks for the reference to the factcheck website. I think I will make a contribution to that site because it truly seems to be independent.

    Here is the quote from that website on the MIT study of the Paris Agreement:

    ["The MIT report looked at the effect that the majority of the first set of pledges would have on warming by 2100. In their report, the MIT researchers assumed countries wouldn’t make additional, more ambitious pledges.

    “Assuming the proposed cuts [under the Paris Agreement] are extended through 2100 but not deepened further, they result in about 0.2°C less warming by the end of the century,” the report said."]

    My sense from reading this full article is that the Paris Agreement alone does only represent .2C as suggested by Lomborg and every other figure is based upon some assumptions of futher cuts after 2030. This may be a valid assumption but it does not change the actual effect of the Paris Agreement.

    Does anyone want to take on MIT?

    Nigel, I wonder what NZ would look like with enough wind turbines to supplant all of its other sources of energy? Tourism might take a hit. I have to admit that one of the biggest problems I have with both wind power and solar power is the defacement of our world. This is leaving aside the number of birds that will be destroyed using wind turbines. Not sure why, but the images of Kevin Costner's Waterworld come back to me. Too bad fusion has not worked. I think I would rather live with sea levels rising and have to deal with that by adaptation rather than having massive areas of our lands covered with solar panels and wind turbines.

    That is why the Lomborg/Global Apollo Programme approach appeals to me. By the way, my search on Wikipedia and the internet would seem to suggest that the Global Apollo Programme has not had much success in getting nations to commit to .02% of GDP towards research.

    Given the realities of coal use in developing countries, I would have thought that there should be massive reseach into carbon capture and other ways to reduce the impact of coal on the environment. Instead we just attempt to impose unrealistic restraints on the use of fossil fuels that are effectively ignored by India and China, the biggest emitters, notwithstanding what China says.

    I still have not heard how the world is going to go from .4% solar and wind to whatever level is necessary to reduce global temperatures to a level of 2.7C by 2100 without coming up with a cheap source of energy to replace fossil fuels.

    I think we all want a better world. Fossil fuels have massively enhanced our civilization. We simply would not be where we are today without them. There are just major disagreements on how we achieve this better world without throwing the baby out with the bath water. I have to exclude Trump (not all his administration like Tillerson) from this group (and unfortunately many of his supporters). He is just focussed on America First. Hopefully, we can get past this period safely but I worry that this anti-globalization/free trade movement is not just in America.

    Eclectic. Somewhere I noted before departing on our sailing holiday that with the proposed "Red Team Blue Team" proposal of Scott Pruitt, I decided it would be better to sit back and watch the experts go at it rather than me try to understand what is a very complicated area.

    I truly hope that they just hand it over to someone like Steve Koonin to appoint the climatologists on both sides of the debate because he will ensure that the most knowledgeable on both sides are represented. I am not moved by your explanation of Koonin's approach which relegates his caution to "motivated reasoning". All he is questioning is the ability of the global climate models to accurately predict what future temperatures will be based upon their track record. If this Red Team Blue Team debate shows that the track record of the models is good then you will have him and the American public behind the majority scientific view with pressure on Trump both to accept that it is not just a Chinese hoax and to propose steps to address AGW. I worry that the lack of recent news on this front reflects a reluctance on the part of Trump to take this chance.

  • New study finds that climate change costs will hit Trump country hardest

    MA Rodger at 20:46 PM on 29 August, 2017

    NorrisM @37.

    After a lot of waffle you state "I admit that I think I am out of my depth on this but it takes a lot of exaggeration to go from 33 Gta to 3,066 Gta."

    The numbers do appear disparate so the first question to ask is "What are these numbers?" (and it is worrying that such a question has to be asked). As you feel 'out of your depth', it would be remiss of me to ask you. But do consider the situation. ☻ You apparently gleen these numbers from Lomborg's web-page comment where Lomborg states that the value "33GtCO2" comes from the UNFCCC saying "Figueres’ own organization estimates the Paris promises will reduce emissions by 33Gt CO₂ in total." Yet there is no sign of such a number in the UNFCCC document from which you would expect this Lomborg reference - the UNFCCC INDC Synthesis Report. ☻ Lomborg (2015) explicitly cites the UNFCCC INDC Synthesis Report and here the referred values ("3.6 (0.0–7.5) Gt CO2eq in 2030") are correctly cited - but note Lomborg himself prefers to use the 2030 value of "6.2–6.8Gt" which is significantly different. But there is no direct sign of any 33Gt or 3,066Gt values.  ☻ So Lomborg is no help at all in explaining his own numbers but it is evident from these figures that your "33 Gta to 3,066 Gta" are multi-year values, with perhaps the 'cumulative reduction in emissions over the period 2017-2100' being the most likely given the 3,066GtCO2(e) figure. Indeed 2017-2100 is the only period under discussion that would provide for a value of thousands of GtCO2(e) emissions/emissions reduction. But with such an accumulative measure and even if reductions as small as "3.6Gt CO2eq in 2030" are being considered, how can this translate into an accumulative "emissions (of) 33Gt CO₂ in total"? It doesn't seem possible. Even the most strict of the two ridiculous schemes set out in Lomborg (2015) would yield at least 77GtCO2(e) by 2100.

    So the question "What are these numbers?" remains unanswered and if you don't know what the numbers are, there is little point in bring them here for discussion.

  • New study finds that climate change costs will hit Trump country hardest

    NorrisM at 15:24 PM on 29 August, 2017

    MA Rodger

    Apologize for missing the "d".

    This is interesting.  The Ward analysis responds to the Lomborg analysis. What I find interesting is the following statement which seems to support Lomborg's postion that achieving 2.7C is based upon assumptions of future cuts after 2030: "Neither of these scenarios corresponds to expected policies beyond 2030."  This statement follows the analysis, of the cuts in the Paris Agreement proposed by the US, the EU and China.

    So I have to assume that the Paris Agreement only goes to 2030.  My understanding is that Lomborg then assumes that no futher cuts are made other than keeping those cuts for the next 70 years.  Then I understand from Ward that Lomborg uses the IPCC 'worst case scenario" temperature rises to come up with his 3,066 Gta CO2 reduction.

    Lomborg on his webpage makes reference to the fact that "future cuts" in 2030 beyond those in the Paris Agreement will be required to achieve the 2.7C level by 2100. 

    So is Lomborg not correct that what was achieved with the Paris Agreement, by itself, is really not very much?  Maybe I am missing something but 33 Gta to 3,066 Gta is a long way to go.  Assuming Lomborg used the most conservative estimates of "business as usual' beyond what had been agreed with the Paris Agreement, I have to think that the required amount to keep temperature rises to 2.7C would still be not less than 1,000 Gta CO2.  Now I am purely speculating but it does not seem that the "assumed" future cuts in 2030 will only be minimal. 

    I admit that I think I am out of my depth on this but it takes a lot of exaggeration to go from 33 Gta to 3,066 Gta.

    I wish someone with a little more technical background could respond.

    But onto ground with which I am more comfortable.  Can someone respond to my question of how we magically get from .4% solar and wind to even 50% in 30 years?  And at what cost per unit of energy?

    Can someone also not respond to why James Hansen believes that the only way to achieve the goals is to turn to nuclear energy?  Where is he wrong?

  • New study finds that climate change costs will hit Trump country hardest

    Eclectic at 15:23 PM on 29 August, 2017

    NorrisM @33 etc.,

    MA Rodger has recommended the Global Apollo Programme [ @#34 above ].   It would be very much worth your while to read ~ a couple of dozen pages, and little more than 15 minutes of your time.  The authors are British, and the report is slightly dated in that it is based on information of 3 - 5 years ago.  But all that has happened since then, is that renewable energy has become even cheaper to produce . . . and the recent run of record-hot years [2014/2015/2016/2017ytd] is showing the urgency of displacing fossil-fuel usage.  There is not the luxury of time to dawdle and do little or nothing (e.g. the do-nothing policy of Lomborg).

    You are wasting your time if you read anything by Lomborg.

    Koonin, in comparison, is [IMO] merely confused about climate matters (because his intellect is overridden by his motivated reasoning) but he is [again, IMO] basically an honest guy.

    Lomborg is a propagandist and an "indirect" apologist for fossil-fuel industry interests (he tries to portray himself as independent and "Luke-Warm", yet that is belied by his statements).  He is, in parliamentary terminology, very "economical with the truth".   My comments here are not an Ad Hominem attack, but simply a description based on his abominable track record.   Quite possibly Lomborg is kind to animals and children in his personal life : yet his "scientific statements" are designed to misinform and mislead the naive reader.  He is a science-denier in Sheep's Clothing [please excuse the cliche].   Possibly he may at some future time, come out with good & useful information . . . but so far he has failed to do so.

    BTW [= by the way ] NorrisM, welcome back from your "sea holiday" !   Interestingly, it appears to have caused a "sea change" in your thinking : you appear to have abandoned any "judicial approach" to climate science, and you now seem to have become more an advocate of "outliers" such as Lomborg.   Would it not be simpler & more straightforward to accept the (overwhelming) weight of evidence that the mainstream scientists are correct.

  • New study finds that climate change costs will hit Trump country hardest

    MA Rodger at 09:07 AM on 29 August, 2017

    NorrisM @33,

    You now appear to be citing this Lomborg web-page which is a presentation of the findings of Lomborg (2015). You ask "Is this true? Or even remotely true?" It appears to be not remotely true. According to Ward (2016), Lomborg (2015) simply sets up his desired answer within the assumptions he adopts.

    And you understanding is flawed as Lomborg's proposed solutions are entirely inconsistent with those of the Global Apollo Programme.

  • New study finds that climate change costs will hit Trump country hardest

    NorrisM at 08:27 AM on 29 August, 2017

    MA Roger

    So now I know of Kare Fog!  Interesting comments on Bjorn Lomborg's two books. 

    On Lomborg's website, he shows a very controversial graph where he measures how many units of CO2 would be required to keep temperatures to 2.7C by 2100 versus what the Paris Agreement would achieve if fully implemented by all nations including the US.

    The graph shows that 3,066 Gt CO2 would be required whereas the Paris Agreement would only achieve 33 Gt CO2.  I believe the website even claims that Christiana Figueres, the UN Climate chief, admits that the Paris Agreement alone would only achieve 33 Gt CO2.

    Is this true?  Or even remotely true? Surely this is a factual statement that can be confirmed or denied.  Even if the Paris figure is ten times this amount, this is a very relevant issue, if only to understand the cost estimates. 

    My understanding is that even Lord Stern, the author of the UK report on the economic costs of climate change, has joined the Global Apollo Group which seems to be recommending a course similar to what Lomborg has proposed.  As well, James Hansen, I believe does not think we can achieve the goals without turning to nuclear power solutions.

    If Lomborg's numbers are correct, do we not have to consider alternatives to massive cuts 100 times larger than what the Paris Agreement would achieve?  

  • New study finds that climate change costs will hit Trump country hardest

    NorrisM at 05:50 AM on 29 August, 2017

    Whew!  Just checked back since referencing Bjorn Lomberg's book and recent views.  Sorry Susanne, just back from holidays and forgot the term.  Everyone knew what I meant so I am not sure how you advanced any argument by your comment.   Ad hominen's are a very poor way to advance arguments.

    Lomborg makes a lot of claims which can be refuted factually if they are incorrect.  But his primary point is that there are more efficent ways of battling the effects of AGW than just massively reducing CO2 emissions without a viable alternative for cheap energy having been discovered.

    When predicting the future, it is difficult to suggest "technology" will solve it but look back at the past and ask what has more upset predictions than technology?  Paul Ehrlich's claims that the world would starve to death did not take into account technological changes in agriculture as an example.  We humans are a bit apocalyptic. 

    I intend to follow some of the above information, especially MA Roger's suggested urls.  

    But today, when wind and solar represent .4% (not even 4%) of world energy consumption and fossil fuels are somewhere around 85%, is it rational or responsible to simply reduce fossil fuel consumption to 15% as suggested by Bill McKibben?  I just shake my head when I hear things like this.

    One "cost" that I even saw that Lomborg "dodged" is the cost of land reclamation.  His approach is to measure the cost to a nation as a percentage of its GDP.  I assume this will be referenced in some of the criticisms above.  Looking forward to reading them.   

  • New study finds that climate change costs will hit Trump country hardest

    bozzza at 13:46 PM on 28 August, 2017

    Tony Abbott lost the Prime-Ministership of Australia by trying to make us accept B. Lomborg should be allowed to espouse his views from the pulpit of one of our most famous Universities.

    He lost all credibility and his job because Lomborg was globally known as being a flim-flam artist... it was the funniest thing: you had to be there I suppose.

    Climate Change alarmism is perpetrated by the climate change denialists to make everything look uncredible... It's all about credibility and the vested interests don't attack in straight lines: there is always the direct and the indirect attack! Newspapers are propaganda machines and the subtlety of the game is how it's won.

    In the end the people lead and governments follow so if you want change then the consuming voter will get change only by demanding it be so. Hence suppliers are changing their ways to meet such perceived increases in demand as they know there are too many jokes out there like Lomborg that fool nobody anymore!!

    It's almost like people are starting to actually care about the children they decided to bring into this world.

  • New study finds that climate change costs will hit Trump country hardest

    One Planet Only Forever at 09:01 AM on 27 August, 2017

    nigelj,

    Regarding what humanity needs to focus on ... The 2015 Sustainable Development Goals are probably the most robustly developed (having the most extensive and rigorous effort put into its development) set of actions that humanity must "cocurrently pursue".

    Those goals were developed through massive international cooperation in increasing awareness and understanding through the years since the 1972 Stockholm Conference.

    For the likes of Lomborg to claim that "They know Better" without actually providing 'substantive Good Reasons based on new information' as the basis for changing the SDGs is the epitome of damaging dangerous hubris. It is simiar to the ridiculous 'US Supposed-Winners-of-Leadership-in-the-Moment' claim that their Red Team-Blue Team climate change assessment would be more relevant than the IPCC reports and recommendations.

  • New study finds that climate change costs will hit Trump country hardest

    nigelj at 06:49 AM on 27 August, 2017

    This is perceptive about Lomberg and his "copenhagen consensus"

    LINK

    We need to stop our obsession with global warming, and start dealing with the many more pressing issues in the world, where we can do most good first and quickest," Lomborg concluded.

    While Lomborg's views are dismissed by the overwhelming majority of those researching climate change, his attendance in Buenos Aires ensured that his views where not only projected into the 'echo chamber' by conservative news sites such as CNSNews.com, but picked up by the BBC as well.[15]

    Others don't think the outcome of the Copenhagen Consensus should be taken all that seriously. Not only were the invited presenters all economists, critics of the process point to the constrained choices they were presented with in ranking priorities that the global community should address.

    "Climate strategies are compared with measures to address problems that everyone agrees are crucial. But climate strategies should also be compared with other goals that society spends (or wastes) money on. One relevant example is to ask what can be delayed with the least harm: climate measures or exploration of Saturn’s rings? Or what about ranking climate measures in relation to spending tens of millions of dollars a year developing new kinds of nuclear weapons, as the Bush administration seems prepared to do?," wrote Pål Prestrud and Hans Seip from the Center for International Climate and Environmental Research (CICERO).[16]

  • New study finds that climate change costs will hit Trump country hardest

    nigelj at 06:22 AM on 27 August, 2017

    OPOF @19

    You could be right. Some people are indeed scientifically literate enough to know whats really going on, but deliberatly misrepresent things for ulterior motives. But I have known very bright well educated people who are just weak in science.

    Either way the result is the same, and Lombergs mistakes are as you say too numerous to excuse. The Danish Ministry of Science also found his book scientifically dishonest, in a formal hearing, although he was cleared of personal dishonesty. But if thats not still a red flag what is?

    LINK

    Lomberg has demonstrated over and over that he cannot be relied upon to be accurate and objective on matters of climate change, and he also has a strong sceptical position, therefore there will always be a suspicion this colours his economic analysis of the Paris issue.

  • New study finds that climate change costs will hit Trump country hardest

    One Planet Only Forever at 04:24 AM on 27 August, 2017

    nigelj@16,

    In order for Bjorn Lomborg to have made his 2008 claim about sea levels he was almost certain to have been aware of the data history, including data prior to 2006. He would have been looking for the longest duration he could claim for the 'no sea level rise for the past ??? years'.

    Therefore, he most likely was well aware that the history includes other periods that would appear to have been the 'end of sea level rise'.

    Therefore, he most likely deliberately made-up his misleading claim to achieve an understandably unhelpful/unacceptable objective.

    Therefore, he has little reliability/credibility as a source of valid information or Good Reasoning. He has very little reliability as an information source.

    All sources can be shown to have 'made some mistakes in the rush to be the first to present new information'. The more reliable sources make fewer and less significant 'mistakes'. But the 2008 claim made up by Bjorn was not a researcher's 'mistake' due to a rush to claim something first. It was wrong in a way that Bjorn Lomborg would have easily been aware of (and part of the blame has to go to all the media that published his claim 'uncorrected for the easy to establish fallacy that it was').

    People wanting to believe the claims made by the likes of Lomborg have to be unaware of the lack of reliability of such sources. Their continued 'faith' and 'belief' in things that are contrary to available evidence and the best explanations of what can be observed/discovered is due to a motivation to 'want to continue to believe the unbelievable'.

    History is filled with cases of people preferring to believe something contrary to the actual developed better awareness and understanding. And they have often argued for 'what they believe' (maintained understandably incorrect beliefs) for hundreds of years after the virtually conclusive unacceptability of what they prefer to believe has been established.

    There truly are some things outside of increased awareness and better understanding, such as spiritual beliefs. But a spiritual believer is also capable of changing their mind based on increased awareness and better understanding. It is interesting to note that many people claiming a spiritual belief as the reason they do not accept an understanding of science also claim that all beliefs should be considered to be valid (an implied equivalence of validity for any belief). But they also insist that their preferred belief is the 'correct one' which is a clear contradiction of their claim that all beliefs are equally valid (and all spritual beliefs/atheism are all to be considered to be equally valid until actual independently verifiable substantial proof shows otherwise). The 'Believers' appear to detest Good Reason and True Expertise because it contradicts their preferred way of thinking - believing rather than understanding - in a way they cannot legitimately rationally argue against).

    The best understanding of what is going on eventually wins, but often not before massive damage is done by Undeserving Winners of competitions for popularity and profitability getting away with the support of 'Beliefs that are Ridiculous' as Excuses for actions that are understandably unacceptable.

  • New study finds that climate change costs will hit Trump country hardest

    One Planet Only Forever at 11:39 AM on 26 August, 2017

    NorrisM,

    To clarify my points regarding the unhelpfulness of the likes of Bjorn Lomborg and Lord Monckton regarding the appropriate awareness and understanding of the changes of human activity that climate science has identified as being required to improve the future for all of humanity, it is important to understand that 'anything that does not improve the future for all of humanity is unhelpful'.

    Another way of saying that is 'only activities that have a net-zero or net-positive impact on Others are acceptable'. That is the fundamantal ethic behind sustainable rule of law. Any law and application of law that does not meet that measure ultimately deserves to be rewritten or revoked (like revised definitions of what Environmental Protection must include). And it is a rational consideration from the perspective the person affected, not the person making the impact, that determines if there is a net-negative impact.

    The burning of fossil fuels, therefore, only becomes acceptable if there is no net-negative impact on any Others, with future generations being considered to be Others.

    The likes of Lomborg and Monckton (and Trump) appeal to the selfish interests among the current generation. They try to claim that it is OK for some among the current generation to benefit from an activity that is understandably creating net-negative impacts for Others. They base their claims on showing that, from their perspective, the opportunity that has to be given up by current day people is less than the harm, costs and challenges that are being created for Others. And they attempt to justify more future harm by applying what is called a net-present-value assessment (or discounting of future costs) that reduces the value of future costs the further into the future they are. And they do not acknoweldge the 'Others' aspect. They instead claim that the harm done is acceptable as long as it is less than the opportunity to benefit that they evaluate would have to be given up by current day people since the result is a net-neutral or net-positive from their perspoective. That type of evaluation can easily be seen to be ridiculous, yet it continues to be used and be popular.

    It is undeniable that much of the developed economic activity of the supposedly (perceived and claimed to be) most advanced nations and corporations was developed in the wrong direction (unsustainable activity). Those who continued with that incorrect direction of development since 1990 (and even earlier, potentially as early as 1972 when the Stockholm Conference identified the required changes of direction), have only themselves to blame for the current developed fact that making the required changes as rapidly as they need to be made is 'to their significant disadvantage'.

  • New study finds that climate change costs will hit Trump country hardest

    One Planet Only Forever at 09:32 AM on 26 August, 2017

    I have read Lomborg's "Cool It".

    Basically the assessment is seriously flawed for many reaosns, not least of which is the fatally flawed belief that it is OK for a group of people to pursue personal benefit in ways that are understood to create harm, costs, and challenges for Other People.

    The arguments against acting to reduce climate change impacts are basically comparisons of:

    • the current day lost opportunities to benefit from the understood to be damaging activities athta are also understood to not be able to be continued to be a benefit in the future (because burning up non-renewable buried ancient hydrocarbon is a dead-end activity with escallating costs to continue).
    • with the perceived costs imposed on Other People in the future.

    The bigest falacy is the belief that perceptions of wealth and value today will magically continue and increase in value in the future. That belief only works if the created value is sustainable activity with increased value being improved sustainable activity.

    The like sof Lonborg can only argue that their last opportunity costs are greater than the costs they create for others. The simple rebuttal is that costs to others must be minimized to the point of being eliminated if humanity is to have a chance of advancing to a better future.

  • New study finds that climate change costs will hit Trump country hardest

    michael sweet at 09:29 AM on 26 August, 2017

    Norris M

    This cartoon ilustrates the quality of Lomborg's arguments:

    Lomborg cartoon

    Lomborg's job is to write juk about environmental issues.  He publishes books because then he does not have to pass peer review.

  • New study finds that climate change costs will hit Trump country hardest

    MA Rodger at 08:58 AM on 26 August, 2017

    NorrisM @4,

    While many here will be generally familiar with the arguments set out by Bjørn Lomborg on AGW, I think most folk would need to know a lot more about the specifics set out in Lomborg's wonderous "Cool It!!!" book to be able to address your question seriously. Of course, the book is a decade old now and has not exactly set the world alight. That suggests more reason to understand the detail of what it is saying. Does this five-page resume reflect your understanding of its content? Or how about this coverage?

  • New study finds that climate change costs will hit Trump country hardest

    JohnSeers at 08:36 AM on 26 August, 2017

    @4 NorrisM

    For a start Bjorn Lomborg's arguments (as described by you) are not "more focussed". In fact they are decidedly lacking focus. What is the point of researching non-carbon energy technologies if you do not implement them? By pushing the implementation of non-carbon energy we can help push that research and give it focus and urgency. 

    It seems rather laissez-faire to just rely on the hope the research is successful without following up on it to make sure it happens. 

  • New study finds that climate change costs will hit Trump country hardest

    NorrisM at 03:52 AM on 26 August, 2017

    My understanding was that this website was limited to the causes of climate change and not to the costs and ways of dealing with those costs.  Largely owing to what I believe will be a "Red Team Blue Team" analysis organized by the EPA (I assume this has not changed while I was on vacation), I have decided that I will not expend any further time on issues of how much temperature change we are headed for thanks to MGW until I have heard the results of this analysis.  As argued by Scott Adams (on a Sam Harris podcast) this publicized Red Team Blue Team approach  is the chance for the proponents of MGW to get the US public onside.  I have to admit this could be somewhat of a "gong show" but if it is organized by someone like Steve Koonin, it does not have to be.

    During my summer vacation, largely owing to the recommendation of Freeman Dyson (not personally, from a You Tube interview), I have now read Bjorn Lomborg's book "Cool It".  Lomborg completely accepts that the present climate change is man-made but argues that massive reductions in the use of fossil fuels at this time does not make sense compared to having the nations of the world each dedicate, per year, .05% of their annual GDP to R&D focussed on non-carbon energy technologies.   His 2008 book only focuses on Kyoto but his website suggests that the Paris Agreement would achieve very little in the way of temperature reductions but at great cost to society.

    Can anyone explain why Bjorn Lomborg's arguments as to a more "focussed" approach to adaptation does not make sense? 

  • Climate denial is like The Matrix; more Republicans are choosing the red pill

    One Planet Only Forever at 03:44 AM on 24 July, 2017

    BBHY@16,

    A better explanation of the absurdity of Lomborg's claim about the irrelevance of California acting to curtail its 1% of global total trouble making is: California's 40 million people are 0.53% of the total global population of 7.5 billion. So their 1% is double the average per-capita impact. And there are some people in California doing far more impact than others. So the largest trouble-makers in California are more than twice as bad as the global average and the global average has to be reduced to zero. A very good way to get to zero is to focus on scaling back the impacts of the bigger trouble-makers.

    Looking at the Wikipedia presentation of USA states per-capita CO2 impacts, the impacts of California are actually far lower than most states (not a big fan of Wikipedia as a reference but this information presentation was quick to validate). So in a way, Bjorn is correct. The reduction of the per-capita impacts by other states should be the focus. But responsible national leadership will clearly be required for that (regional Winning leadership is clearly failing to care). California can only strive to Lead by Example (and they should be admired if they truly effectively reduce the impacting by the highest impacting portions of their population - like shutting down their dirty oil production).

    And a better analogy than a journey of 100 miles is a condominium community that has developed the nasty habit of everyone pooping outside rather than face the costs of connecting to a community sewage treatment system and paying per-unit for their waste. And some members of the condominium are doing far more pooping than others, but all of the pooping outside has to stop. Bjorn is arguing that the households that comprise 0.53% of the population but contribute 1% of the outside pooping should not act to reduce the amount of popping outside done by the biggest poopers in their households. It is true that there are other housholds that per-person poop a lot more. But that is no excuse for 'The Leaders of the households in the California portion of the condo group' to not reduce the outside pooping done by the biggest poopers in their housholds.

    An even better analogy to the global situation is a community of people that poops outdoors in the communities that are far away from them. That is the way many of the wealthiest in the supposedly most advanced or fastest advancing nations have been behaving since 1972 when the Stockholm Conference made it undeniable that the wealthy needed to stop sloppily harvesting non-renewable resources and gobbling them up for personal benefit (reducing the resources avaialble in the future) and pooping their damage results all over the world, piling up bigger problems that future generations would have to try to dig out of.

  • Climate denial is like The Matrix; more Republicans are choosing the red pill

    BBHY at 18:37 PM on 23 July, 2017

    Lomborg's logic: If you are driving your car on a one hundred mile trip, the first mile is only 1% of the distance, so it's not worth bothering to drive that mile. The second mile is also only 1% of the distance, so don't bother driving that mile either. And so on.

    Therefore, your best method of travel is to wait patiently for someone to invent teleportation, so you can arrive at your destination instantly.

  • Climate denial is like The Matrix; more Republicans are choosing the red pill

    One Planet Only Forever at 01:05 AM on 22 July, 2017

    Bjorn Lomborg, like many others, has a long history of trying to create the best possible 'Poor Excuses' for not needing to rapidly reduce the global burning of fossil fuels.

    His 2007 book "Cool It" made economic assessments similar to other denier-delayers. They basically try to Excuse Less Acceptable Behaviour by making claims about the economics. But what they essentially do is try to justify why a portion of current day humanity should be able to prolong their ability to get personal benefit from:

    • an activity that future humans cannot continue to benefit from (even the most fortunate ones) because it is the burning up of non-renewable resources, so it is undeniably unsustainable.
    • an activity that is undeniably damaging in many ways, not just the challenges and extra costs created for others, particularly the future generations, by the generation of massive amounts of excess CO2.

    They go further than that fundamentally undeniably unacceptable marketing action. They deliberately compare the 'costs to others as they figure it' to 'the costs and lost opportunity to the portion of the current generation who have to correct their ways to reduce the costs and challenges cretaed that others will face - as they figure it'. They then try to claim that if 'the costs to not make problems for others' are greater than 'the costs imposed on others' (all as they figure it), then the ones behaving less acceptably are justified. Of course they understate the future costs because they completely ignore anything they cannot quantify as an action required by the more fortunate (they count building high sea walls at "their cities" based on the low estimates of near term sea level rise - not the longer term sea level rise - and ignore flooding of land less fortunate people live on. They also overstate the 'costs' of correcting the behaviour of the ones who benefit from behaving less acceptably. And they completely ignore all the other costs of burning fossil fuels (they just look at the climate costs - as they figure them)

    And the worst of that group actually discount the future costs at the highest rate they can get away with because that is a common business practice when comparing alternative project options that a busines could take. That discounting is only legitimate if the same person faces the current and future costs/benefits of the action.

    In a proper evaluation there should be no 'costs or challenges or reduction of resources available to others' created by a pursuit of benefit by someone. Clearly, 'being proper' would not suit 'their interests'. Reduction of 'impacts on others' is what is required regardless of claims that the reduction of harm to others is 'small'.

    So I consider Byorn to be clearly in the group of people to be read/aware of, but only in order to be on alert for the shifting types of thinking and misleading marketing being developed by those who want to deny the unsustainable/unacceptability of the ways that so much of the so called advanced nations' economic activity has developed. They could also be called Anti-Correct People because they fight against actually correcting things that clearly need to be corrected (including resisting correcting their thinking regarding climate science and the changes it points out need to happen for the benefit of the future of humanity).

  • Climate denial is like The Matrix; more Republicans are choosing the red pill

    michael sweet at 20:46 PM on 21 July, 2017

    The Lomborg article is here.  HIs argument is that since Claifornia only emits 1% of the world CO2 any actioon will have no effect and is a waste of time.  He claims that since electricity rates go down when solar generates power that solar power is impractical (I wonder why lower costs to customers qualifies as a  failure to compete).  He suggests more research into new green energy (he does not suggest any technology that might be better than current technology) and doing nothing until those new technologies are developed.

    lomborg cartoon

  • Climate denial is like The Matrix; more Republicans are choosing the red pill

    rkrolph at 18:32 PM on 21 July, 2017

    There was an interesting article today in the Los Angeles Times by Bjorn Lomborg called "We're handling climate change all wrong". I am curious what anyone's take is on this.  Sorry, I don't have a link to the article.

  • 2017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #23

    One Planet Only Forever at 08:14 AM on 14 June, 2017

    Too @ 7
    I agree that something that is half the cost to the current generation and provides twice the benefit for future generations is better. However, as an engineer with and MBA, I understand the fallacy of believing we understand how to technologically manipulate the global environment in a way that is guaranteed to produce a desired result. An Engineering fundamental is that nothing gets produced for public use until thoughtful thorough actual (not artificial) experimentation has been performed to ensure its safety. My MBA courses in Organizational Change made it clear that a desired change cannot be created by implementing a theoretical adjustment on the organization. Implementing changes will result in changes, but because of complexities that are not well understood the actual change is different from what may theoretically be hoped for.
    Massive experiments in imposing changes on the global environment to be performed by future generations at their risk, the sort of irresponsible impositions on Others that the likes of Lomborg try to justify, are extremely dangerous propositions.

    Reducing human impact emissions that are causing change is not the same type of change. Reducing the imposition of such a change to the global environment is “Guaranteed” to reduce the magnitude and uncertainty of the resulting consequences.

    In line with my previous comment, it is not even appropriate to compare the costs for avoiding different levels of temperature increase. Comparisons of different approaches to reducing the total CO2 impact that would achieve the same levels of global impact are valid to determine the more effective options. But trying to justify the creation of a larger future problem because “it would be less expensive for the current generation” cannot be allowed to be considered to be sensible or responsible (and it is worse to claim that the future generations can gamble their futures on massive experiments in global environmental manipulation). That type of thinking can lead to unjustified excusing of less acceptable behaviour because less acceptable behaviour will always be easier, quicker or cheaper even though it causes a bigger problem.
    A justified evaluation would be to determine the level of global temperature increase that would create very little chance of any future costs or challenges to any regions humanity currently has developed in. I am fairly certain that that has been reasonably determined, and we have already likely exceeded that level of temperature increase because of the lack of responsible action by the “Winners” among our predecessors since 1972 (1972 Stockholm Conference made it clear what changes of development direction would be required).

    If we continue to allow “Winning” by people who consider it OK to create costs and challenges for 'Others because the Others have no equity of influence over what is gotten away with, especially future generations' then indeed the matter is a Mathusian one in the sense of the “Less Sensibly/Responsibly Justified More Damaging Winners” encouraging others to compete to be Less Sensibly Responsible and More Damaging (A potential result of the Winners-of-the-moment in the USA excusing themselves from the responsibility to participate in the Paris agreement). The growth of unjustified pursuits of personal interests could indeed destroy humanity, even without population growth.

    Basing “Winning” purely on Popularity and Profitability with everyone “freer to think and do as they please” is indeed a fundamental threat to the future of humanity.

    But humanity has a history of only allowing trouble-makers to go “So Far” before their actions are effectively curtailed. Regrettably, humanity does appear to struggle to retain that learning. It seems to repeatedly have to be relearned. In too many cases the trouble-makers are permitted to go too far because of reluctance or inability to limit the Sovereign Liberty of people or nations (like the recent Sudanese, Bosnia, Rwandan atrocities).

    Supposedly already advanced Nations that did the least improvement of CO2/GDP, CO2/capita since 1972 definitely have a “Disadvantage” today. Claiming the situation they are in, facing more rapid and significant correction of their economic activity (ways of living) than others, as “Unfair” is incredibly unjustified, but understandably popular in the population of such a nation. When G.W. Bush announced that the USA would not ratify Kyoto he declared that Americans did not have to change the way they lived. That “Big Lie” created a delusion among many members of the population, and the current generation in the USA is suffering the consequences. John Stuart Mill (a formative thinker regarding the pursuit of Liberty) would blame the society for failing to properly raise and educate its population. To Quote Mill, “If society lets a considerable number of its members grow up mere children, incapable of being acted on by rational consideration of distant motives, society has itself to blame for the consequences.” Mill would probably expect international action to attempt to “correct the failing of the USA” so that all of humanity does not fail. Hopefully, thinking like Mills will prevail in the USA before international intervention is required (because history shows that international intervention is usually too late, after significant damage is done).

    It is undeniable that the USA today faces a much larger challenge than it would have to face if the leadership since the 1972 understanding of the Stockholm Conference had done more to encourage responsible development and discourage irresponsible development. But instead of striving to change as much as possible to a sustainable economic path, the USA leadership was influenced into trying to maintain a temporary perception of global competitive superiority by behaving less acceptably than it could have. Currently faced with the reality of the bigger correction of the over-development in the wrong direction, it is understandable why irrational inexcusable unjustified arguing to get away with less acceptable behaviour is popular in the USA population (and other nations). But it is also clear that the population of the USA is justifiably divided on this matter. In spite of some groups “Winning unjustified advantage by deliberately behaving less acceptably” others in the USA (and Canada, and Australia, China, and many other nations) have pursued better behaviour and the development of economic activity that does not face the undeniably dead-end destiny of activity that over-developed in the wrong direction. So the current USA (and many other nations) is understandably divided Good vs. Evil from the perspective of the future of humanity, regardless of attempts to claim that some other Good vs. Evil is more important and get attention misdirected.

    Therefore, to avoid future massive damaging developments the international collective of leaders in business and government have to develop the will to be closely monitored and have quicker action taken to limit the “Winning” by any of “Their Peers” who try to gain advantage from a large portion of the population growing up mere children - selfish/greedy and/or with tribal xenophobic fear based intolerance of “Others”.

    The Paris Agreement has the potential to effectively be that type of international mechanism. That is probably why it is so passionately disliked by many “Intelligent and Knowledgable but Misguiding/Misdirecting” people.

  • 2017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #23

    MA Rodger at 06:32 AM on 14 June, 2017

    Too @various.

    Perhaps we should examine your comments down this thread in the round.


    Your first position down this thread (@4 & @7) is that the Paris agreement will cost a fortune and achieve effectively zero. This is perhaps the conclusion you would reach if you only relied on a climate-change denier like Lomborg.

    You next suggest (@9, @14, @15 & @16) that food à la Thomas Malthus is equivalent to GHG emissions à la AGW and so, bizarrely, AGW could be tackled by making people poorer (which interestingly is the exact opposite of the fix mankind has effected to escape the Malthusian delemma). Then you decide (@21) this was not a line of discussion you wanted to pursue.

    There follows (@25/26 & @32/33) your not-untroubled assessment on renewable electricity production.

    This leads to your redolent but ambiguous statement @37 "I am beginning to get a sense of why the two sides in this debate cannot seem to have productive discussions," followed @40 by your first mention of Trump and his fake reasons for rejecting Paris.
    Concerning the existence of "two sides," your argument @45 is poor. If a 'second side' does exist as you say, perhaps you could find your way to setting out who it comprises and what it's position is and on what basis it has established such a position.
    I would suggest that there is in truth no such 'second side' and that you are simply alluding to a bunch of nay-saying climate-change deniers who collectively hold any number of incompatable and unscientific beliefs. This cannot in any way constitute a 'second side' with any equivalence to the UN IPCC.
    That you further set out your position (@44/45) in which you see no reason for either "side" to be proved right or wrong but instead that they have to be reconciled to properly address AGW - this is illogical nonsense. It is nonsense even if there were "two sides," which there aren't, because the positions you paint as "sides" cannot be reconciled without proving one to be correct and the other wrong. And this proof has already been established à la IPCC. Thus you must appreciate that your approach to fixing AGW and your desire for learning in that regard is pointless and a waste of everyone's time.

     

  • 2017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #23

    too at 02:15 AM on 12 June, 2017

    @One Planet Only Forever - Yes.

    It is absolutely correct to look at something that will cost x and reduce temperatures by y and say, look there is a better way to spend .5x and reduce temperatures by 2y. 

    The Paris climate agreement was completely ineffective and would have cost huge sums of money. It was a placebo. It did nothing. Better to be rid of it and actually focus on solving the problem rather than pointing to it as the solution when it did zero, zilch, nada.

    http://www.lomborg.com/press-release-research-reveals-negligible-impact-of-paris-climate-promises

    I would much rather solve the problem than do nothing. That being said, climate change is really just a repackaging of a Malthusian catastrophe.

    (snip)

    https://theobjectiveobserverblog.wordpress.com/2017/06/11/the-climate-bomb/

  • Analysis: Meeting Paris pledges would prevent at least 1C of global warming

    Digby Scorgie at 12:19 PM on 9 June, 2017

    All right, Mr Moderator, I'll try to express myself more circumspectly:  In view of Bjorn Lomborg's reputation, I don't think any weight should be placed on his 2015 paper.

  • Analysis: Meeting Paris pledges would prevent at least 1C of global warming

    Digby Scorgie at 10:45 AM on 8 June, 2017

    Everything I've read about Bjorn Lomborg points to the fact that he is a fraud.  I recall reading (but can't remember where, unfortunately) that he has been funded by some in the fossil-fuel industry to produce "studies" sympathetic to fossil-fuel interests.  I would discount his 2015 paper as worthless.

  • NY Times’ Stephens can’t see the elephant in the room on climate change

    Susan Anderson at 05:22 AM on 18 May, 2017

    Reminder: Stephens is a follower of Lomborg. He appears not to be numerate or have a good scientific training. He's a writer (not an editor).

    Liz Spayd, the "Public Editor" was a poor choice. She refuses to engage with the many fact-based responses she received. To these two, facts appear not to matter, and nothing appears to penetrate that armor. I have one friend whom she criticized publicly precisely because he provided a fact-based rebuttal. What do you do with people who don't want to hear it because they're so convinced they're right? (It's happening on the left too these days.) It's easier to hate/attack than to think/reason/act.

  • NY Times’ Stephens can’t see the elephant in the room on climate change

    Susan Anderson at 01:32 AM on 18 May, 2017

    nigelgj, I don't dispute the awfulness of the Stephens hire or his opinions, and I consider the insidiousness of Lomborgianism more dangerous than outright denial in some ways. But it is important to be accurate and the word "lackey" is classic early Iron Curtainspeak as well as incorrect in Stephens' case. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/10/opinion/comey-firing-donald-trump.html and https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/12/opinion/how-trump-may-save-the-republic.html

    My other point, which is advanced with humility, I hope, is that the broad focus on him, though negative, actually promotes his "brand" where a studied lack of interest in his dishonesty would, in my humble opinion, have been more effective.

    In addition, the NYT, as I said, has several fine climate reporters and they get a whole lot less attention than this mess. This eagerness to condemn and isolate with the "pure" ensures that the united Republicans will overcome fractious Democrats for the foreseeable future. Republicans aren't boycotting Fox and Breitbart. Science deniers are not so choosy about the tools they use.

  • NY Times’ Stephens can’t see the elephant in the room on climate change

    Susan Anderson at 07:05 AM on 17 May, 2017

    I'm not defending Stephens but he was hired for NYT "Opinion". It's kind of like what people do about Trump, trying to insert reason, logic, and evidence where these concepts are inappropriate. If you remember that Stephens is a sort of disciple of Bjorn Lomborg, and makes his living as a soi-disant conservative commentator, you can avoid the pitfalls and trying to figure out why the stupid. It's just stupid, you can leave it at that.

    So many people I respect have gone the "unsubscribe" route that I hesitate to condemn the all or nothing approach. Unfortunately, it has not had the desired effect of correcting the error, but rather amplified it. Meanwhile they've hired Brad Plumer and have a large group of good reporters. All the attention paid to Stephens seems to feed the beast, making him better clickbait that if we really ignored him.

    It's an ongoing problem with the commentariat, how to find a way to effectively communicate about facts without feeding the monster of falsehood.

  • Just who are these 300 'scientists' telling Trump to burn the climate?

    BILLHURLEY at 23:54 PM on 28 February, 2017

    My congressman is Rep. Lamar Smith. A stronger denialist is hard to find. I recently went to his office and a staffer scoffed at the "97% of scientists" claim. I responded that -no, not scientists which include economists or political scientists, no. These are climatologists! Do you know the difference?

    Actually I think even though green advocates know the difference, we should stop saying "...of scientists" because of this confusion. We're not as effective when people like Byorn Lomborg (political scientist?) can claim otherwise.

  • Extreme weather isn't caused by global warming

    gpace at 04:49 AM on 6 August, 2016

    Hallo, this is my first post. I am Giancarlo Pace, ex- astronomer. I am spending some time checking some deniers' arguments. Most of them are easily debunked and do not deserve scientifical attention. 

    However, I did find something that still sounds reasonable to my non-expert ears. Bjorn Lomborg (who is not exactly a deniers but seems to be not too worried about climate change) shows in a video of a terrible youtube channel, a plot that seems to indicate that droughts are decreasing. Misteriously, he does not indicate the name of the authors of the paper, he says that it is a Nature paper of 2014. However, the paper exists:  Hao et al. 2014
     http://www.nature.com/articles/sdata20141

    The paper does not state any decline in droughts, but actually their Figure 5 shows what definitely seems to be a decline in number of droughts since the 80s.

    If you want to watch the video, here it is:

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3PWtaackIJU

     

    I read here that collectively, the number of extreme weather events is declining, but I only get an insurance company as source. Do you have some scientific research on it?

     

    Thanks a lot

  • Open letter to the Wall Street Journal editor: a scientists’ response to Lomborg's misleading op-ed

    BBHY at 02:12 AM on 18 April, 2016

    Europe heat wave of 2003: "14,802 heat-related deaths (mostly among the elderly) occurred during the heat wave, according to the French National Institute of Health"

    So that was just one single heat wave in one country that was very likely exacerbated by climate change. I don't recall news of any cold spell causing so many deaths. How many thousands died in around Moscow in the Russian heatwave of 2010? How many millions of people died from droughts and famine and floods all exacerbated by climate change?

    A comprehensive study would find that there is no comparison to the devastation already being caused by climate change, and that isn't even the really big concern. If atmospheric CO2 keeps increasing and the global average temperature keeps increasing this will get much, much worse.

    Lomborg is just completely wrong, as usual.

  • Open letter to the Wall Street Journal editor: a scientists’ response to Lomborg's misleading op-ed

    r.pauli at 03:04 AM on 16 April, 2016

    Bjorn Lomborg is stuck with his name and reputation.   For a great while now, I see his name and associate it with pandering,,, financial and ideological.  

    Every so often, I check in and read about him, and it only reinforces the validity of the labels.   Thanks for checking him again. 

  • Open letter to the Wall Street Journal editor: a scientists’ response to Lomborg's misleading op-ed

    ubrew12 at 04:00 AM on 15 April, 2016

    As the planet warms, it also holds more water vapor.  Dry cold air, held still next to the body, will warm rapidly to body temperature due to its low specific heat, but wet cold air will not: so you lose heat faster in wet air.  So that works against Lomborg's argument 2 ("climate change will reduce the number of cold days").

  • The gutting of CSIRO climate change research is a big mistake

    ryland at 09:50 AM on 13 February, 2016

    Tom Curtis @ 23.   Unlike mancan@18 I am surprised at the unusual amount of speculation and supposition in your discussion.  I too read the SMH but I also read the Australian and trust neither to give a totally unbiased report. You express reservations on the statements made by Dr Marshall on staff cuts, the RV, Argo and the climate models that have no basis in fact.  They are in fact pure speculation

    On RV Dr Marshall stated:"The second area of correction is our ability to support climate measurement in Australia. Cape Grim and RV Investigator are not under threat from these changes."Your interpretation is:"RV Investigator is a multi-function research vessel and can continue its voyages very easilly without any research on climate (focussing instead on ecology, for instance)". What evidence have you that any of this will occur?  As far as I can determine it is again speculation with no basis in fact

    On Argo, Dr Marshall: :We will also continue our contribution to the international Argo floats program which provides thousands of data points for temperature and salinity of our oceans; and we’ll be investing more in autonomous vehicles, using innovation to collect more data than ever before."

    Your comment is : "Nor does a continued contribution to the Argo floats program assure us that the level of contribution will remain the same."

    Any evidence that it won't? Marshall certainly gives no indication it will be changed. He specifically states "we'll be investing more".

    On climate models Dr Marshall states:"Our climate models have long been and will continue to be available to any researcher and we will work with our stakeholders to develop a transition plan to achieve this."

    You say "the phrasing of the assurance regarding the climate model suggests that it will not be used by CSIRO researchers, merely that it will be available to others (of which more later). More important, it contains no assurance of the continued development and testing of the model, without which it will be obsolete in 4-5 years."

    This is purely your interpretation of Marshall's phrasing.  Another interpretation could well be  "that as the statement says models will continue to be available etc, these models will be fit for purpose".  

    On the staff cutting to which you refer Dr Marshall said: "In our Oceans and Atmosphere business we have about 420 staff, not 140 as reported by some media, and after these changes we expect to have about 355, contrary to media reports."

    Your comment "This, however, seems like misdirection to me. Specifically, the 100 full time positions lost from the Oceans and Atmosphere section will be lost from just two out of five units. The question is, how many staff are their in the two units that will sustain the losses? Larry Marshall does not answer, and the answer is probably 140". "

    "Seems like misdirection to me" is a purely subjective assessment with no apparent basis in fact Why is there "probably 140"? That number is specifically referred to by Dr Marshall as being incorrect.  

    In conclusion, why is the climate science community, of which SkS is certainly a member, so vehemently hostile to any actions it considers a threat to its beliefs and activities?  The furore  the appointment of Bjorn  Lomborg generated and the current hand wringing and prophecies of doom about proposed cuts at CSIRO epitomise the "to the ramparts" attitude of the climate science community at anything it perceives a threat to its beliefs and importance.  To the unbiased observer this could appear to be more like knee jerk paranoia than anything else.

  • The gutting of CSIRO climate change research is a big mistake

    Tom Curtis at 23:24 PM on 11 February, 2016

    bozza @various, I will not go into details because it is off topic, and politics to boot; but I agree with Ryland that Abbots 'captain's pick' of a new Lomborg center in Australia had no bearing on his dismissal.

    ryland @12, as it happens, research into the link between smoking and cancer continues apace.  That is because, the link between smoking and lung cancer is statistically well established, but there are less obvious links with other forms of cancer, but also, because the link between smoking and cancer was established statistically, the exact causal relationship between smoking and cancer has not been established.  Therefore crucial research remains to be done which will help in the treating of smoking caused cancers.

    In climate science, although the causal link between anthropogenic emissions and global warming is settled science, the exact value of climate sensitivity, the specific effect of clouds as a feedback, and in interaction with aerosols, are only roughly constrained.  Further, the process of downscaling model predictions so that predictions at a resolution useful to planners is still in its infancy.  Finally, until we have super computers several thousand times faster than the current crop, single model large ensemble experiments are not realistic.  Until we can do those, however, we cannot make significant progress in determining which are the more accurate models, and rely on an ensemble of model predictions to determine error ranges on predictions.  The CSIRO runs a key model in that ensemble, and its loss would significantly impact the quality of model predictions.

    These are issues quite apart from the obvious point that you cannot assess effectiveness of mitigation without the observational measures that were used to discover that mitigation is necessary.  I am sure experts in the various fields could think of more relevant factors.

    Please note that I do not object to the CSIRO changing its focus.  Had an announcement been made that 30 positions would be lost from current climate research to start increasing CSIRO research on mitigation (which already exists), nobody would have batted an eyelid.  What has me outraged is the blind managerialism that first determines on vague mantras "we need renewal" how many cuts will be made without, in the first instance, determining which particular research activities are currently productive, and will be into the future; and which are not.

  • The best of climate science and humanity come together at AGU

    ryland at 16:59 PM on 22 December, 2015

    If climate scientists are or feel they are, being reviled and misrepresentred, perhaps it is because of the arrogant and pompous behaviour of a significant number of climate scientists and their acolytes. If you call people who disagree with you "deniers" with all the unpleasant connotations that word brings, why shouldn't you be pilloried in return? Statements such as that by Professor Richard Parncutt from the University of Graz that "deniers should be executed" ( a statement for which he subsequently apologised) is hardly likely to endear the climate change proponents to those that are less convinced. Al Gore suggested deniers be punished. David Suzuki said deniers shoud be thrown into jail. James Hansen said deniers should be brought to trial for high crimes against humanity. Stephan Lewandowsky equates "deniers" with conspiracy theory nuts. Pro AGW blogs regularly make derogatory comments against Judith Curry and Richard Lindzen and John Christy and Roy Spencder and Bjorn Lomborg. The climate scientists and acolytes are reaping what they sow. I exclude Kevin Cowtan from any of this as he is a courteous and thoughtful man

  • Scientists' open letter to the Wall Street Journal re: Ridley and Peiser

    Eclectic at 18:16 PM on 7 December, 2015

    Joel_Huberman @22 : thanks Joel, for your link to Professor Curry's website ~ though I am not sure I would describe it as "better" than WattsUp site. Certainly, Curry's site is more upmarket than WUWT ~ the comments posters seem to be twice as educated and half as rabid as those of WUWT. Not that that's saying much!

    It is more than a year since I previously looked at the Curry site. Not much has changed there. She continues with a multi-pronged attack on the mainstream climate science: At times she takes a Lomborgian It-won't-be-bad-ist position / other times she does a lot of fence-sitting by using the "Uncertainty" gambit / other times she follows the usual denier meme by cherry-picking and elephant-ignoring.

    Just in case anyone should think Professor Curry is not a gold-medal climate science denier :- please consider a few of her (recent) quotes:

    " . . . we need to open up the debate on the causes of the warming." [my emphasis]

    "I think that by 2030, temperatures will not have increased all that much."

    "The differences between the U.S. Democrats and Republicans on this issue [AGW] is rooted in their preferred policies, not so much the mainstream science." [my emphasis]

    Yes, the Curry website is much, much lower-key than the typical mouth-frothing denier website. But as you read into it, you find that her website simply uses a different approach in obfuscating of science and of clear thinking about the issues. It is an approach which uses obfuscation through a chaotic welter of words.

    Yes, it is "different" ~ where the average [American] denier complains that Science Is Being Politicised . . . we find that Curry complains politics is being "scientized". [Marvellously droll, eh? How dare any politics be influenced by scientific facts!]

    Alas, if you want practical, useful information, then you will find that neither Curry or WUWT is worth going to.

  • Scientists' open letter to the Wall Street Journal re: Ridley and Peiser

    Charlie A at 16:51 PM on 6 December, 2015

    The next bullet point in the article says " A recently-released UN study found that both the frequency and intensity of storms and floods has increased over the past decade, and that weather-related disasters are occurring at almost twice the rate as they did two decades ago."

    In the link to the EM-DAT (not IPCC) Report there is a section on page six that appears to be the source, but the very next sentence starts off as "While scientists cannot calculate what percentage
    of this rise is due to climate change, .......  "

     

    Yes, the previous sentence says "In total, EM-DAT recorded an average of 335 weather-related disasters per year between 2005 and 2014, an increase of 14% from 1995-2004 and almost twice the level recorded during 1985-1994."  But then the next sentence channels Bjørn Lomborg  and Pielke Jr by saying "While scientists cannot calculate what percentage
    of this rise is due to climate change, predictions of more
    extreme weather in future almost certainly mean that we will
    witness a continued upward trend in weather-related disasters
    in the decades ahead"

     

    Is this the section of the report you relied upon, or is there some point in the report by Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters that discusses climate change and observed increases in disasters?   I have noted several places where the report ties observed increases with better reporting, but none that link observed increases to climate change.

  • Scientists' open letter to the Wall Street Journal re: Ridley and Peiser

    Tom Curtis at 09:32 AM on 6 December, 2015

    With the hopeful permission of the moderator, and in respect to ryland @29:

    1)  Bjorn Lomborg was not denied a position at the UWA.  Rather, the AGW denied and then PM of Australia offered the UWA a special monetary grant on condition that they set up a "consensus center" administered by Lomborg.  The center was not to employ Lomborg, but other researchers by his invitation working on his flaws "Copenhagen concensus" model.  This was money entirely outside the normal academic grants process, and was not based on any academic assessment of the merits of Lomborg's work.  It was quite rightly rejected as a blatant attempt to provide Lomborg an additional platform for his pontifications which were considered desirable by the government not because of academic merit but because of political convenience.

    No attempt by Lomborg to be employed in Australia via normal academic processes has been rejected, and nor should it be.

    2)  Salby was sacked for: a)  Not undertaking his prescribed teaching load; b) failing to teach a course he was directly instructed to teach; and c) using university funding without permission to undertake a trip to Europe he was expressly denied permission to make as it conflicted with his teaching duties.  

    3)  Bob Carter was not sacked from James Cook University, and nor could he be as he had already retired.  He was not offered a renewal of his annual, unpaid position of adjunct professor because he was not undertaking the duties thereof.  That the failure to renew the offer was not due to his opinions on global warming is evident from the fact that the position has been renewed annually from 2002-2012, ten years over which he has been as vocal on climate change as he is now.  From JCU:


    "Dr Carter’s very prominent public contributions to the climate change debate is not something new. He has been promulgating his views, which of course he was entitled to do, for many years while holding an adjunct appointment. But what has changed over the years is the level of his contribution to the School of Earth and Environmental Sciences where he held his adjunct appointment.

    Academics holding adjunct appointments are expected to contribute on a regular and ongoing basis to one or more of the following University activities:
    • Teaching;
    • Collaborative research;
    • Postgraduate supervision; and
    • Staff and student consultations.

    The key question for an adjunct appointment is: “Proposed activities and Perceived Benefits to the School”. While Dr Carter has continued his own research and gives “public talks and advice about climate change and climate change policy” – again as he is perfectly entitled to do – such outreach activities are not related to the work of the School, and do not meet the need to contribute to the School as outlined above.

    The simple fact was that in the School’s view Dr Carter was no longer undertaking any of the activities within the School of Earth and Environmental Sciences that is required of an adjunct."


     In short, the adjunct professorship was not renewed because he was no longer teaching, undertaking collaborative research, supervising any post graduates or consulting with staff or students.  Rather, he was merely using his office for non-academic purposes.

  • Scientists' open letter to the Wall Street Journal re: Ridley and Peiser

    ryland at 07:54 AM on 6 December, 2015

    Philip64@26

    You comment "But in 15 years of following this subject quite closely I can't remember a single instance of someone losing their job in a significant scientific institution or failing to secure one becauser of their views about climate change or any aspect of it."

    Perhaps you need to follow it a bit more closely.  Bjorn Lomborg was denied a university position here in Australia because of his views of climate change.  He is not a "denier" but believes the dangers of climate change are overstated and there are more pressing problems. (see here)

    You will note no doubt that the vice president of the Academic Staff Association states

    "This isn't about censorship at all ... Lomborg is not a climate [change] denier; he believes the scientific evidence which overwhelmingly shows that climate change is happening, he just debates the economics of how we should deal with it," Mr Bunt said.  But he would say that wouldn't he?

    A more telling quote is from Greens Senator Rachel Sieweret who is reported as saying:

    "It was very clearly the Government's design to get someone in place that was running a different argument on climate change, to try and suggest that climate change isn't as significant an issue as it is," Senator Siewert said.

    "It was bad science, and I'm pleased that UWA has realised that.

    "[The Federal Government] clearly had a political agenda, and it was a mistake for the University of Western Australia to go along with it."

    As you can see Bjorn Lomborg's views cost him a position at UWA, which is where I got my PhD from.  I do not support the actions of UWA in this instance.

    You also may not of heard of Murry Salby and Bob Carter both climate change sceptics. Salby was dismissed from his position and Carter was not re-employed. You can read about it here and here.  The two references, the second of which is by Dana Nuccitelli give quite different views

  • Scientists' open letter to the Wall Street Journal re: Ridley and Peiser

    ryland at 07:57 AM on 5 December, 2015

    @1  Your comment "It is tragic when a media source that really should strive to ensure its readers are well aware of what is going on"  is entirely correct but does it encompass contributions such as those by Bjorn Lomborg currently being published in the Australian (see here) to "ensure its readers are well aware of what is going on"?.  Or do such contributions  and indeed the Australian itself, fall into your category "rather than being a populist gossip rag, resorts to publishing misleading information because it suits some short-term unsustainable damaging objectives a few wealthy and powerful people"?

  • Tracking the 2C Limit - July 2015

    bozzza at 20:12 PM on 27 August, 2015

    @6, ..talking about political targets 3 C is exactly what Bjorn Lomborg was hoping to convince the global voters of democracy that fossil fuels should be allowed to warm our kids earth by.

     I just feel that this exact point needs to be made as science and politics are inextricably linked.

     How much more political can it be to have the good name of a prestigious University used to flog fossil fules all in the name of enriching the elite?!!?

  • The 1C Milestone

    bozzza at 11:57 AM on 11 August, 2015

    @ One Planet Only Forever, this same logic applies to Bjorn Lomborgs attempt at trying to convince the world that fossil fuels should be allowed to warm our earth by 3C instead of 2C...

     Limits, or more succinctly "The slippery slope" styles of argumentation ,are coming whereby black is white and there is apparently no point doing anything.

     Resource bottlenecks are the first predicted consequence of panic. The trouble is the vested interests will argue this is good for employment yadda yadda yadda...

  • Lomborg: a detailed citation analysis

    chriskoz at 00:24 AM on 25 July, 2015

    Huh! The LNP govs did not give up on this pathetic effort and they want to place Lomborg in Flinders Uni now. Hold your breath about the "Australian pride". Will see if FU (or yet another education institution before the project collapses) accepts the lure of $4m govt grant...

  • The importance of good climate communication: a recent Arctic example

    chriskoz at 00:14 AM on 25 July, 2015

    bozzza@10,

    This thread (where, interestingly in your comment therein, you've coiled a term 'clever country') is the appropriate place to talk about Lomborg. Your upbringing of Lomborg & 'clever country' here does not make any sense & I would not be surprised if it was deleted.

  • Global warming deniers are an endangered species

    bozzza at 18:28 PM on 24 July, 2015

    The global warming denier hides as the global warming negotiator,... hence Bjorn Lomborg still being offered University status at Flinders University to spruik his idea that fossil fuels should be allowed to warm our kids earth by 3 degrees instead of 2... 

    He doesn't deny global warming, you must understand, ..just asks why fossil fuels shouldn't be allowed a bit more breathing room to continue making profits for a little bit more!

    (Like an ear worm he will make you sing along if given airplay!!)

    The global warming denier is Abbott hiding as, of course- this is politics, the negotiator! Wow, strategy and stuff.... just watch Holloywood and vote for whatever...cool, yeh! Beer is in the fridge and we've got hotdogs yay!

  • The importance of good climate communication: a recent Arctic example

    bozzza at 18:12 PM on 24 July, 2015

    If Lomborg gets the gig at Flinders University will that increase or decrease the good communication of climate science?

    More to the point, if Lomborg gets the gig at Flinders University will that be the last straw for the once allegedly 'clever country',... ?

  • 2015 SkS News Bulletin #6: Pope Francis & Climate Change

    Tristan at 21:57 PM on 5 July, 2015

    Hi Ryland

    For a large fraction of the world's 'poor', they aren't on a functioning grid anyway, so coal won't help them much. localised generation like solar and wind is much easier to deploy.

    It's also not an either/or scenario for the working poor in affluent nations. For instance, the carbon tax in Australia came with an energy rebate, thus avoiding the 'little old ladies dying from cold because they refuse to turn on their expensive heating" meme. There's no reason why we can't help the needy and ensure the long-term prospects of our environment.

    Most of the people who tell us how we should help the poor by doing some other alternative (Lomborg etc) have no actual interest in helping the poor. It's a smokescreen.

  • Eight things we learned from the pope's climate change encyclical

    bozzza at 02:08 AM on 19 June, 2015

    He's basically telling the world to stay away from Bjorn Lomborg and anyone else who argues fossil fuels should be allowed to warm our kids earth by 3 degrees instead of 2...

  • 2015 SkS Weekly News Roundup #20B

    bozzza at 10:56 AM on 18 May, 2015

    Precisely correct, Bjorn Lomborg is blind to intergenerational inequality. His political message is a global one: that carbon emissions be allowed to warm the earth by three degrees. (What was his choice of measurement btw as I  cannot recall?)

  • It's not urgent

    bozzza at 17:08 PM on 14 May, 2015

    @7, another indicator worthy of attention in my mind is that Bjorn Lomborgs political message was that 3C was a more sensible target... what this indicates I don't like!

  • 2015 SkS Weekly News Roundup #19B

    bozzza at 11:36 AM on 10 May, 2015

    The reputation of UWA is very proud and if Lomborg got the gig at the insistence of a climate change denying Prime-Minister the laughter throughout the country would bring shame for a century. It was never going to happen.. Perth knew it would never happen as the students that go there only have it's flawless reputation separating them from the riff-raff of other very well educated university graduates around Perth and as we all know---> Perth has an overqualification problem.


    The mums and dads of said students are well connected: Perth is a bit of a round-about and the chancellor would have been reminded that this state floats the country and will not be sold a pup by a Liberal Party propping up old technology and foreign vested interests. The people of UWA realised we need our 'clever country' back and now that Tony Abbott has nowhere to hide his infamous flim-flam man I expect the election campaign will be strategically kicking into gear exactly now!

  • 2015 SkS Weekly News Roundup #19B

    chriskoz at 10:40 AM on 10 May, 2015

    Ditching Bjorn Lomborg centre from UWA is the most positive, even celebratory news this week.

    If the centre had gone ahead, it would've undermined my faith in science progress, certainly in UWA.

    I do not believe chancellor Paul Johnson, who "defended the decision to appoint Dr Lomborg an adjunct professor" did so out of his genuine opinion. Far more likely Johnson was under serious political pressure. Thankfuly, the presure from "students" (I guess all academics afiliated with UWA if not the entire world are included in this broad term) outwieghed the pressure from the politicians.

    Note that UWA was not the first unstitution, the current australian government wanted to place Lomborg in. This article stipulates that it was ACU:

    The Australian Catholic University's Canberra campus was one of a number of locations considered for the controversial centre, before UWA was settled on.

    which is probably closer to Tony Abbott's heart. One can only stipulate why the attempts to place Lomborg in ACU have failed and if Tony Abbott dares to try somewhere else...

  • Lomborg: a detailed citation analysis

    Tom Curtis at 09:06 AM on 9 May, 2015

    michael sweet @55, the story has been widely reported in Australia, including by the ABC, the Sydney Morning Herald, the Australian, and of course The Gaurdian (Australian Edition) to which Romm links.  The Sydney Morning Herald story is echoed across the Fairfax media, as the Australian's version is echoed across the Murdoch press.  The only story additional to Romm's report is that Christopher Pyne says he is taking legal advise about the cancellation of the contract.

  • Lomborg: a detailed citation analysis

    michael sweet at 08:02 AM on 9 May, 2015

    Joe Rhom at Think Progress  reports that UWA has turned down the $4 million and declined to accept the Lomburg center.  Any updated from Oz here?

  • Lomborg: a detailed citation analysis

    Tom Curtis at 10:08 AM on 29 April, 2015

    ryland @52, out of interest I did a google scholar search for the author of the opinion piece in The Australian, Jennifer Oriel.  It turns out that after a publication in 2005 based on her PhD thesis, she has published two further academic journals plus one for the organ of the Australian Union of Students.  From those publications she has a google scholar h-index of 3 (strictly 2 counting purely academic journals alone).  She has also published two book reviews and an article for the Institute of Public Affairs, the later suggesting (though not proving) a right wing ideological bias.  Her academic affiliation was (and may still be) with Deakin University, who list her research output as zero.

    I looked this up because her argument is based on the charge that academic pubication is a poor measure of research output because of a supposed left wing institutional bias in academic publication.  Given that is the nature of her argument, the question arises what claim does she have to expertise in this area, and it turns out the answer is none.  (That it also shows she has a personal interest in rejecting h-indexes, or publication records as a measure of research merit is a bonus.)

    As to her argument I will make three points.

    First, it is irrelevant.  What the h-index measures is the ability and willingness to make your case to those who have the relevant expert knowledge to actually pick up your mistakes in argumentation, mistatements of data, etc.  Anybody unwilling or unable to do that has no place heading an academic think tank at government expense.  Indeed, the selection of such a person for that role shows the government is using public money to promote its private ideology - something event the IPA should be able to recognize as bad.

    Second, her argument is evassive.  There is substantial evidence that that Lomborg in addition to evading scrutiny by his peers, has indulged in a host of academic sins including cherry picking, framing of straw man opponents, misrepresenting data and employing different discount rates when making cost comparisons.  That is, on the public record is is reasonable to suppose that his "research" is not only not presented to his peers, but that it would not survive such a presentation because it lacks academic merit.  The low h-index is merely a symptom of this larger problem.

    Third, her own google scholar record proves her wrong.  Specifically, it shows that google scholar cheerfully includes not only peer reviewed publications, but publications from ideological think tanks such as the IPA.  It includes 18,200 articles from Australia's most influential, but not peer reviewed journal Quadrant.  Ergo, even if her self serving claims about academic publication are accepted as true, there are more than sufficient alternative means of publication with a designed right wing bias to establish a significant publication record, and more than sufficient authors of articles in those journal to establish a respectable h-index.

    So, all in all, her argument has no merit.

    I will not bother, however, submitting an opinion piece (or even a letter) to The Australian because long experience has shown they have an overwhelming bias against policy relevant opinions they do not like.  So much so that on climate change their opinion pieces appear to represent an exact reversal of the AGW consensus, with around 3% of opinion pieces from those supporting the consensus, and 97% from those opposing it.

  • Lomborg: a detailed citation analysis

    ryland at 01:25 AM on 29 April, 2015

    There is an opinion piece in today's (April 29th) Australian on Lomborg's appointment, that spends some time on h-factors.  The writer seems less enamoured of them than some who have so lucidly  commented here.  Perhaps posters here will write a comment to the Australian on this opinion piece as it will reach a very wide audience.   As commenters here have a very different perspective from that of the journalist, this will add significantly to the understanding of the general public about this somewhat arcane issue.

  • Lomborg: a detailed citation analysis

    PluviAL at 14:53 PM on 28 April, 2015

    Ian Forrester @31, et al 32 to 25, Thumbs up. Thanks for the comments. Sorry if I drift, and not to attack the man here, but, Ian illustrates the point well; there was no consideration of the alternative argument offered. (Shrinking continents/globe was the precursor explanation for mountain building)

    If Lomborg's Present Value, and other arguments are faulty, they need to be addressed; the future of humanity may rest not just on the most precise technical understanding of the science, but the practical politically actionable business of successful action. That means money and political will.

    To attain good results we need good science, good communication, and good strategies. And yes, Lomborg may not be aware of his motivations anymore than those who get upset at my lack of scientific acumen and jump to the conclusion that it makes me wrong. The point of the article is to consider Lomborg's value, and the discussion is stuck on indices and technicalities, unable to broaden the perspective. This may be scientifically defencible, but may be missing the point.

    Finally, JH: I thought you all would know that earth flux is 44 TW and insolation is 174,000 TW, my shorthand sumo-illustration was too cryptic, sorry.

  • Lomborg: a detailed citation analysis

    Tom Curtis at 10:01 AM on 28 April, 2015

    ryland @41, the problem with Lomborg is not that he studies how best to tackle global warming, nor even that his proposed solution isn't a solution.  It is that his "research" in support of his conclusions is distinctly second rate, and probably constitutes academic misconduct.  I have quoted other peoples opinion on this here and here, but I have not read his books and must rely on their opinions in that regard.  However, one issue I have looked at is the use of different discount rates in the "Copenhagen Consensus".

    Kare Fog gives the story:

    "4) Inconsistent use of discount rates
    The experts were instructed in advance to use two discount rates, viz. 3% p.a. and 6 % p.a. That is, the benefit/cost ratios are calculated twice, once with the low rate, and once with the high rate. In practice, however, only the results obtained with the low rate (3 %) have been used in the conclusions. So, the high benefit/cost ratios for the many programmes in the fields of health, nutrition and diseases were calculated using a discount rate of 3 %.
    The only exception is in the field of global warming. Here, Yohe et al. use a discount rate of 5 %, gradually declining over 100 years to 4 %, whereas Green uses 4 %.
    Why did the climate specialists not use the prescribed discount rates? As to Yohe et al., the explanation given by the economist Richard Tol here is as follows:
    "On the discount rate: I do not know what the other papers used. We used a consistent discount rate — all calculations, and all reporting was done with the same discount rate. The models that we use would require extensive recalibration for a different discount rate. . . As we used dynamic optimization models fitted to observations, we had to stick to the discount rate we had. As the rest of the Copenhagen Consensus used simpler methods, they should have used our discount rate."

    So Richard Tol thinks that all other specialists should have used the discount rate that gradually declines from 5 % to 4 %, because his group could not easily adapt to the prescribed 3 %, whereas it would have been relatively easy (?) for all others to adapt to his group´s discount rate. In any case, the result is that the disocunt rates are not comparable.

    As to Green, he performed his calculations with a 4 % discount rate, but also included results for a 3 % discount rate.

    Now, when all data for all items were summarized and compared, all other projects were represented by the benefit/cost ratios obtained wit a discount rate of 3 % (the results with a 6 % discount rate were not used in the final evaluation). Only the climate projects were represented with different discount rates. And these rates were higher than those used for other issues. Which is against the usual thinking that the longer the time perspective, the lower must the discount rate be. As the climate issue has the longest time perspective, it should have the lowest discount rate.
    This is especially remarkable in the case of Green´s project. Here there existed a version where a 3 % discount rate was used, but in spite of this, the version included in the final ranking was the one using a 4 % discount rate. And that matters quite a lot. As stated in the previous paragraph, for Green´s project, 4 % yields a benefit/cost ratio of only 16:1, whereas 3 % yields a benefit/cost ratio of 28.5:1. Which would have brought Green´s climate project near the top of the ranking list, above the efforts against tuberculosis, malaria, child diseases and heart diseases. The climate project would have got a priority near the absolute top. But the slight change in discount rate, from 3 % to 4 %, sent the climate project far down along the ranking list, out of the range of projects that are granted money.
    Incidentally, this is the same situation as in the Copenhagen Consensus 2004. There, the discount rate used for the climate issue was 5 %, whereas that used for HIV/AIDS was 3 %.
    So there is an obvious reason why the climate issue always is ranked last. It is systematically treated with a higher discount rate than the other issues.

    It would of course be interesting to hear Lomborg´s comments to this criticism. And indeed, he has been forced to comment upon this in a debate in a local Danish newspaper in February 2009. See here."

    On this, I have verified independently that Tol in fact used a higher discount rate than was used examining other projects considered by the Copenhagen Consensus, and that that materially alters the priority rating of takling global warming as compared to those other projects.

    In the case of Tol's paper, that may just be Tol's fault, although Lomborg ought to acknowledge the problem, something he seems determined not to do.  But in the Green case mentioned above (which I have not independently verified), the choice to use the valuation based on the 4% rather than the 3% discount rate was Lomborg's, and amounts to academic fraud.

  • Lomborg: a detailed citation analysis

    mancan18 at 09:38 AM on 28 April, 2015

    WheelsOC

    Perhaps, I have missed the purpose of this thread and should not have posted as what I'm saying is not exactly in line with the discussion. This is about Lomborg's h index, which is an index that is totally independent of his credentials related to CC and what he says. It is also about whether he deserves to be given 4 million dollars by the Australian Government to establish his research centre in Australia and further obfuscate the CC debate.

    Now, if this an esoteric discussion purely about academic credentials amongst academics, then I am happy to take your point. This, unfortunately, is not going to enlighten the wider public about the quality of a CC argument, who these academics are and what they are saying. In fact, in Australia, most CC related comments that make it to the wider public are mostly by non climate scientists writing denier based articles in the Murdoch press or comments made by right wing shock jocks. While Sks does conduct a proper balanced debate based purely on the science, the economics and social impact; this debate does not filter into the public forum because, in Australia, the mostly denier/skeptic comments get a free unchallenged run because those putting up a more balanced position have been hounded out of the public forum with torrents of abuse and trolling. In other words the public do not get a balanced view based on the science. I am not suggesting that some CC credential for CC scientists be used to select scientists for research centres, the h index should be enough.  Also, I would be fairly sure that Lomborg probably doesn't use it or would use any other artificially CC related credential. I would be pretty sure that he would select his academics using his own criteria. What I am saying is that the wider public do need some way to assess the quality of a CC article in the public forum. Unless climate scientists properly engage in the public debate then they will well and truly lose the debate despite what they might be arguing in purely academic circles. In public forums in Australia, it's too easy to be a denier. It should not be.

  • Lomborg: a detailed citation analysis

    Rob Honeycutt at 09:32 AM on 28 April, 2015

    ryland @ 41...

    The challenge comes with the "at least in part" aspect of his position. Over the years it's become undeniable that climate change is, in fact, happening. So now the default denial position is that it's happening and humans are responsible "at least in part." This is not much of a shift in position. Lomborg still says that we should continue to burn FF's because not burning it would hurt the poor, which is a position that's not supported by research. 

    Catch that? The shift in position is there to make higher profile climate deniers sound credible, while their position on any kind of action to limit carbon emissions remains completely unchanged.

  • Lomborg: a detailed citation analysis

    Tom Curtis at 08:20 AM on 28 April, 2015

    ryland @39, first, Lomborg purports to be an expert on environmental issues including global warming.  Ergo Cook and Dana are in the same field as his purported area of expertise.  However, his actual area of expertise (in as much as he has one) is game theory.  Therefore for comparison I did a google scholar search for game theory and here are the first to authors registered on Google Scholar from that search:

    Robert Gibbons h index = 42

    C Camerer h index = 94

    So exactly was your point?

  • Lomborg: a detailed citation analysis

    ryland at 08:17 AM on 28 April, 2015

    I was under the impression that Lomborg fully accepts both the science of climate change and that humans are responsible at least in part.  I thought his field was not climate science per se but how humans could best adapt to climate change and the cost benefits of various approaches.  I can't see how this is reprehensible or in any way undermines what climate scientists promulgate.  In fact it seems to complement their efforts as he is saying the effects of climate change are going to be manifested so how can we best deal with them.. I cannot understand why there is such antipathy for an appointment that has little to do with the science of climate change and a lot to do with how best to cope with it.

  • Lomborg: a detailed citation analysis

    Rob Honeycutt at 07:23 AM on 28 April, 2015

    ryland... The issue here is that Lomborg's publishing record on climate – the subject matter of the center he's being funded to lead – is nearly non-existent. 

    Perhaps his h-index is more in line with those publishing on game theory (the subject of a couple of his papers), but I would doubt that's even the case. 

  • Lomborg: a detailed citation analysis

    ryland at 07:12 AM on 28 April, 2015

    The comparisons made by Bradshaw don't seem to take any account of the h-index in different disciplines.  It is all very well contrasting Lomborg with Nuccitelli or Cook or whomsoever but such comparisons are largely meaningless.  Why is there no comparison of Lomborg with others in the same field?  It is claimed that the h-index has a strong discipline biasand that comparisons should be made after normalisation via  h/(h)d where h is the individual's h-index and (h)d ther average h-index for the discipline.  Was that done?  If so I obviously missed it.  Overall this seems a comparison of grapes with car tyres.  Not one of the better articles in SkS 

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