Over the past week smoke from Canadian wildfires has once again poured into cities across Canada and the northern US. Toronto briefly had the worst air quality of any major city on Earth, Thunder Bay’s readings went off the top of Canada’s air quality health index scale, and unhealthy air alerts stretched from Minneapolis to New York City.

This smoke-pocalypse has renewed a long-standing debate online that these fires aren’t really about climate change at all, but about forest mismanagement. Decades of aggressive fire suppression, the argument goes, have let fuel pile up. We don’t log enough, thin enough, or do enough prescribed burning The forests are overgrown tinderboxes and we have only ourselves to blame. Climate is a distraction from a problem we created by listening to Smokey Bear’s insidious propaganda.

I want to take this argument seriously, because it has a real kernel of truth. The fire-deficit story is a genuine phenomenon in the dry conifer forests of the western United States. But most of what’s burning in Canada is boreal forest, and the boreal is a fundamentally different beast. So in this piece I’ll try to explain why the management argument, largely valid in a California pine stand, mostly falls apart when you move it a couple of thousand kilometers north, and explore what the fire data actually shows.

Here’s the short version. Canada’s area burned has surged, and it has surged in step with warming: hot, dry fire seasons burn far more forest, with area burned rises roughly 80% for each 1C increase in fire-season temperature (with a correlation coefficient of 0.61). This relationship is robust to a variety of statistical tests and controlling for confounding variables. The boreal burns in rare, high-intensity crown fires on a natural cycle measured in a century or more, across enormous remote areas that have never been logged, thinned, or effectively suppressed. Only about a fifth of Canada’s burned area over the past four decades was even inside forest regions that have ever been actively managed. You cannot have a fuel-buildup from forest mismanagement in a forest you were never managing.

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Dangerous and historic wildfire smoke pollution event engulfs the U.S. and Canada

Posted on 21 July 2026 by Guest Author

This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Jeff Masters

As climate change bakes forests across North America, dense smoke from dozens of out-of-control wildfires burning in northern Minnesota and adjacent portions of Ontario is blanketing tens of millions of people with hazardous pollution.

The fires are bringing the worst air quality on record to much of the Great Lakes, mid-Atlantic, and Northeast United States. Pollution from small particles called PM2.5 — the fine particles less than 2.5 microns in diameter are the primary air pollution killers — has been far into the “Hazardous” range across five states since Wednesday morning.

The award for worst air in the nation on July 16 went to the city that has in the past billed itself as a climate haven: Duluth, Minnesota. The city’s 24-hour air quality index, or AQI, for PM2.5 particle pollution hit 934, over three times the threshold for “Hazardous” pollution. This shattered Duluth’s previous all-time AQI record of 159 set July 20, 2021. EPA pollution records go back to 1999.

The award for worst air in the nation on July 16 went to the city that has in the past billed itself as a climate haven: Duluth, Minnesota. The city’s 24-hour air quality index, or AQI, for PM2.5 particle pollution hit 934, over three times the threshold for “Hazardous” pollution. This shattered Duluth’s previous all-time AQI record of 159 set July 20, 2021. EPA PM 2.5 pollution records go back to 1999.

Because of the huge number of people affected, and since this is occurring at the same time as a severe humid heat wave, this extreme and widespread pollution event — which will be followed by many months of repeated wildfire smoke incursion into the U.S. — will undoubtedly cause hundreds and perhaps thousands of premature deaths. The only comparable wildfire smoke event affecting this portion of North America occurred in 2023; a 2025 study blamed that event for 33,000 premature deaths in the United States, 8,300 in Canada, and 23,000 in Europe. According to the EPA, a premature air pollution death is one that occurs on average 14 years before a person would have otherwise died.

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The Strongest El Niño Ever

Posted on 20 July 2026 by Zeke Hausfather

This is a re-post from The Climate Brink

I’m generally pretty measured in how I discuss climate data. There has been only one time in recent years when I was truly shocked: when global temperatures came in for September 2023 at a full 0.5C warmer than any prior September on record.1 Once until today, that is. With the July runs now in from 667 ensemble members across 14 different seasonal forecast models, it looks like this year’s El Niño is not only very likely to be the strongest event since reliable records began – it may end up the strongest by a truly mind-blowing margin.

The multi-model median for the event’s peak (measured as detrended sea surface temperature anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region of the tropical Pacific) currently stands at 3.6C, roughly 0.8C hotter than the prior record of 2.75C set in 2015-16. For context, the gap between the strongest and the fifth strongest El Niño of the past 150 years is only about 0.5C. The models are forecasting something outside the envelope of anything we have ever observed.

A few things stand out in this figure. First, no event in a century and a half of observations has ever pushed meaningfully past 2.75C. The legendary 1877-78 event comes closest, in a statistical dead heat with 2015-16 (2.73C vs 2.75C, well within the uncertainty of 19th-century ship data). Second, the middle 80% of this year’s forecast ensemble sits entirely at or above that all-time record: even the low end of the plume (2.8C) grazes it. Around 91% of ensemble members exceed the 2015-16 record at their peak.

To see what this would look like as the event unfolds, we can compare the forecast trajectory against the five strongest events ever observed, month by month through the development year and into the following spring.

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2026 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #29

Posted on 19 July 2026 by BaerbelW, Doug Bostrom

Stories we promoted this week, by category:

Climate Change Impacts (7 articles)

• New research : Doomsday Glacier ice shelf could 'give way any day now' "Just have a Think" on Youtubue, Dave Borlace, July 5, 2026.
• Grey whales are dying along our shores. Researchers say a warming climate may be part of the problem Although a number of factors may be contributing to the die-off, scientists say it’s likely at least partly due to climate change. Melting Arctic ice and warmer waters may be reducing the number of small sea creatures the whales rely on for food, and altering the selection of what does remain. CBC'', Brandie Weikle, Laura Lynch, Jul 12, 2026.
• The Strongest El Niño Ever With the July runs now in from 667 ensemble members across 14 different seasonal forecast models, it looks like this year’s El Niño is not only very likely to be the strongest event since reliable records began – it may end up the strongest by a truly mind-blowing margin. The Climate Brink, Zeke Hausfather, Jul 13, 2026.
• Global warming's new wrinkle - it's too hot for nuclear reactors to operate The scorching summer in the U.S. and Europe and wildfires across both continents are well documented, but global warming flexed its power in a new way this week as France said it shut down a handful of nuclear reactors because of the extreme heat. Callaway Climate Insights, David Callaway, Jul 14, 2026.
• Climate Change Contributes to a Smokier World Higher temperatures and drought conditions are contributing to more intense wildfires and extending the summer fire season in North America. NYT, Quinn Glabicki, Jul 16, 2026.
• Canada's boreal wildfires aren't just bad forest management Higher fire season temperatures are strongly correlated with increased area burned The Climate Brink, Zeke Hausfather, Jul 17, 2026.
• Dangerous and historic wildfire smoke pollution event engulfs the U.S. and Canada Most of the fires grew out of control under extreme heat conditions made up to five times more likely by climate change. Yale Climate Connections, Jeff Masters, Jul 17, 2026.

Climate Science and Research (6 articles)

• Scientists finally solved the mystery of Earth's greatest mass extinction According to the researchers, the work also has important implications for the present. The environmental conditions before the Great Dying resembled the relatively cool, oxygen rich oceans that existed for millions of years before human activities began rapidly altering Earth's climate through fossil fuel emissions. ScienceDaily, Stanford University press office, Jul 12, 2026.
• Changes in Funding Could Tank Quality of Ocean Heat Content Data An uncertain funding landscape threatens the longevity of an ocean observation system critical to projecting tropical storms, sea level rise, and more. Eos, Grace van Deelen, Jul 13, 2026.
• A deep pool of extremely warm water is available to fuel El Niño in summer 2026 Climate.us, Rebecca Lindsey, July 16, 2026.
• The report oil companies are worried about: Climate attribution science New report says our ability to tie weather damages to climate change is improving. Ars Technica, John Timmer, Jul 17, 2026.
• As climate extremes collide, attribution science evolves A National Academy of Sciences report on extreme climate event attribution confronts political climate denialism with scientific evidence. Inside Climate News, Bob Berwyn, Jul 17, 2026.
• "iT'S CaLLeD SuMmER" Dr Gilbz on Youtube, Ella Gilbert, July 17, 2026.

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Skeptical Science New Research for Week #29 2026

Posted on 16 July 2026 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack

Open access notables

Renewable energy discourses of fossil fuel companies: obstruction and delay of climate action, Desai et al., Energy Sustainability and Society

For decades, multinational fossil fuel companies have strategically promoted discourses to obstruct climate action. Initially, the fossil fuel industry publicized communications that denied the role of fossil fuels in climate destabilization. Recently, however, they have advanced nuanced messages to delay climate action and policy. As the climate crisis worsens and calls to phase out fossil fuels intensify, research into the industry has revealed pervasive “greenwashing” and a discrepancy between external messaging on renewable energy and internal operational positions. Corporate annual reports, which are public-facing communications, offer insights into how companies align their internal strategy with their external messaging. Based on a textual analysis of the annual reports of four of the largest fossil fuel companies (ExxonMobil, BP, Shell, and TotalEnergies), this research compares how companies have adapted their communication strategies about renewable energy between 2016 and 2022.

When algorithms decide the climate: AI, disinformation, and the crisis of environmental truth in the Anthropocene, Vidal, PLOS Climate [commentary]

We often describe the Anthropocene as a planetary emergency. Yet beneath the ecological upheaval lies a deeper and more destabilising fracture: the erosion of environmental truth [1]. By environmental truth, I refer to the collectively negotiated understanding of climate and ecological realities, shaped by scientific, social, and technological processes. Climate knowledge today is reported, debated, and contested, but increasingly it is computed [2]. Algorithmic infrastructures now decide what becomes visible, credible, and politically actionable. My argument here is direct: AI systems and digital platforms have become co-producers of environmental truth, and this reconfigures the very conditions under which climate policy, public debate, and democratic decision-making occur. The Anthropocene is as much a crisis of meaning as it is of ecology.

When models outrun politics: Biofuels as a stress test for scenario plausibility, Hedenus, Energy Research & Social Science

Long-term energy scenarios often assign a substantial role to biofuels in net-zero pathways, despite decades of policy support and limited evidence of sustained cost reductions or large-scale diffusion. Using biofuels as a critical case, this paper examines a broader problem in scenario construction: the misalignment between modelled technology pathways and socio-technical feasibility. Drawing on innovation theory, learning-curve evidence, and observed patterns of policy support and investment, it argues that biofuels are constrained by a configuration of mutually reinforcing limitations, including feedstock-dominated costs, weak learning dynamics, and permanent policy dependence. These constraints do not form a simple causal chain, but jointly limit the conditions under which large-scale competitiveness could emerge. Despite this, energy system and integrated assessment models often project extensive biofuel deployment under assumptions that abstract from political volatility and investment risk. The paper argues for greater use of empirical plausibility checks to improve the relevance of long-term energy scenarios.

Global Warming Has Accelerated Significantly, Foster & Rahmstorf, Geophysical Research Letters

Recent record-hot years have caused discussion over whether global warming has accelerated. Previous analysis found acceleration (i.e., increase in warming rate) has not yet reached a 95% confidence level, given natural temperature variability. We remove the estimated influence of three main natural variability factors: El Niño, volcanism, and solar variation. The resulting adjusted and thus less “noisy” data show that there has been acceleration with over 98% confidence, with faster warming over the last 10+ years than during any previous decade.

Compound coldwave and freezing-snow events decrease during 1994−2023 over global land area, Ma et al., Advances in Climate Change Research

With accelerating global warming, compound climate extremes pose amplified threats to ecosystems and socio-economic stability. However, the occurrence and evolution of Compound Coldwave and Freezing-Snow (CCFS) events in a warming climate remain a critical knowledge gap. This study provides a quantitative assessment of the spatiotemporal changes of CCFS characteristics, including its frequency, duration, and severity from 1964 to 2023, by integrating daily minimum temperature data from Berkeley Earth with hourly precipitation amount and precipitation type data from the ERA5 reanalysis. The spatial distribution of CCFS events exhibits a pronounced interhemispheric asymmetry, with over 90% of occurrences located in the Northern Hemisphere. Mid- to high-latitude regions of Eurasia and North America, where show the highest CCFS frequency, also experienced substantial temporal changes. Compared to the earlier period (1964−1993), notable declines in CCFS frequency, total duration, deficit heat, and combined severity are observed across most land regions during the recent warming period (1994−2023). Globally averaged trends reveal a faster reduction in CCFS frequency and total duration, as opposed to a slower decline in deficit heat and combined severity. The reduction has been particularly rapid in the top 20% most affected land areas, concentrated in subtropical North America, northern/eastern Europe, and Siberia. In these regions, average event frequency, duration, deficit heat, and combined severity declined markedly from approximately 3.5 events, 28 d, −44 °C, and 25 in 1964 to about 2 events, 18 d, −14 °C, and 17 in 2023. However, the average duration per event extends from 1964 to 2023, especially across mid to high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. Furthermore, CCFS frequency and duration demonstrate a nearly linear decrease with global warming, while severity indicators follow a nonlinear, logarithmic decay. This disparity indicates distinct sensitivities among different CCFS characteristics. For all CCFS indicators except average duration, the linear component of the response outweighs the nonlinear component. The results will aid forecasting efforts and help to improve hazard preparedness and mitigation strategies.

From this week's government/NGO section:

Climate Change in the American Mind: Beliefs & Attitudes, Spring 2026, Leiserowitz et al., Yale University and George Mason University

Americans who think global warming is happening outnumber those who think it is not by a ratio of more than 4 to 1 (68% versus 16%). By a margin of more than 2 to 1, Americans are more likely to think global warming is mostly human-caused (59%) than to think it is mostly caused by natural changes in the environment (27%). 66% of Americans say they are at least “somewhat worried” about global warming, including 29% who say they are “very worried.” 59% of Americans think global warming is affecting weather in the United States, including 35% who think weather is being affected “a lot.” 13% of Americans have considered moving to avoid the impacts of global warming.

Cheaper. Cleaner. Unstoppable. Clean technologies that are delivering for the climate, James Haselip and Lakshmi Bhamidipati, United Nations Environment Program

At a time when climate risks are intensifying, this policy briefs highlights a powerful and hopeful shift: many clean solutions are no longer niche—they are becoming the new normal. Across energy, transport, buildings and food systems, “positive tipping points” are emerging. As costs fall, technologies scale, and public support grows, adoption is accelerating in self reinforcing ways. Solar power, electric mobility, and sustainable cooling are proving that climate action can be economically competitive, socially beneficial and globally scalable. This report shows that the transition is not only possible—it is already underway. With the right policies, investments and partnerships, we can amplify these positive tipping points, unlock cascading benefits, and deliver a future that is more resilient, equitable and sustainable.

287 articles in 92 journals by 1998 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

A strong constraint on radiative forcing of well-mixed greenhouse gases, Feng et al., Nature Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41586-026-10289-x

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Home batteries could become the next must-have household appliance

Posted on 15 July 2026 by Guest Author

This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Bridgett Ennis

s the prices of home battery systems fall, they’re becoming a key part of the modern electric grid. They can help homeowners store power from rooftop solar panels or the grid for use during outages or periods of high demand. And they can reduce strain on the grid during heat waves when electricity demand soars.

In this interview with Yale Climate Connections, Raghu Belur, the chief products officer for Enphase Energy, explains how home battery systems can lower utility bills and create backup power during grid failures. He also says that batteries, including the batteries in electric vehicles, may one day make it possible for utilities to use power from many small sources to maintain a more reliable grid. 

This interview has been edited for clarity and length. 

Yale Climate Connections: Could you explain what a home battery is, how it works, and the benefits it provides customers? 

Raghu Belur: The beauty of the battery is it can do a few different things. The home – which traditionally has been only a consumer of energy – is actually producing its own energy with solar on the roof. One of the limitations to solar is that it’s an intermittent resource – we don’t have solar at night – so the best way to actually maximize the utilization or the usability of solar is to add a battery. 

The second use case is you can actually sell energy back to the grid [in some places]. When there is a lot of demand on the grid and you have all these stored electrons, those electrons are very valuable for yourself as well as for the grid. So you as a prosumer – a producer and a consumer – can sell that energy to the grid and actually make money. 

The third use case for that battery is, of course, if the grid were to fail. So when the grid goes out, these batteries can create a microgrid and power the home. The whole process is seamless: It senses that the grid is gone, takes over, and runs the home on the energy that it has saved so the homeowner wouldn’t even know that the grid is gone. 

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Fact brief - Do electric vehicles stop working in extreme heat?

Posted on 14 July 2026 by Sue Bin Park

Skeptical Science is partnering with Gigafact to produce fact briefs — bite-sized fact checks of trending claims. You can submit claims you think need checking via the tipline.

Do electric vehicles stop working in extreme heat?

Extreme heat can temporarily reduce range, but recent research does not show that EVs are unable to operate in hot weather.

Much of the decrease comes from energy diverted to cool the vehicle, not because EV batteries or motors stop functioning. Modern EVs use thermal management systems to keep components within safe operating temperatures.

U.S. Department of Energy testing in 2024 found EV range fell on average about 14% at an ambient temperature of 95°F (35°C) compared with mild weather. However, the same proportional decrease was measured for gasoline vehicles under comparable conditions. 

AAA testing of popular EV models in 2026 found an average range decrease of 8.5% at 95°F. Meanwhile, a 2025 study of 345,000 real-world EV trips found a 16% reduction at temperatures up to 122°F (50°C).

Extreme heat can reduce efficiency, but it does not make EVs unable to function.

Go to full rebuttal on Skeptical Science or to the fact brief on Gigafact

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This fact brief is responsive to quotes such as this one.

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Sources

U.S. Department of Energy Impact of Cold Ambient Temperature and Extreme Conditions on Electric Vehicles

AAA TEMPERATURE EFFECTS ON ELECTRIC AND HYBRID VEHICLE EFFICIENCY

Applied Energy Extreme heat effects on electric vehicle energy consumption and driving range

Recurrent How Hot Summer Weather Affects EV Range

Columbia Law School Sabin Center for Climate Change Law Rebutting 33 False Claims About Solar, Wind, and Electric Vehicles

[Based on Evan's suggestion in the comments, we updated the title to eliminate the double negative. July 15, 2026]

Please use this form to provide feedback about this fact brief. This will help us to better gauge its impact and usability. Thank you!

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Deadly heat wave in France shows the future of climate risk

Posted on 13 July 2026 by Guest Author

This is a re-post from The Climate Brink by Andrew Dessler

I have a commentary in Carbon Brief today, written with my friend, Prof. Chris Callahan. It focuses on the recent heatwave in France.

One point we wanted to make, but that was downplayed after the elves at Carbon Brief edited the piece, is that this event should make us rethink the victory lap people took after RCP8.5 was judged to be implausible.

The focus on arguments about emissions scenarios that only affect the climate late in this century takes the spotlight off the fact that the impacts of climate change are already here and they’re significant, as this French heatwave shows.

The reduction in future emissions is good news, but it may be cancelled by the fact that models seem to be underestimating the extreme heat that Europe is experiencing.

Here is a reprint of our Carbon Brief piece:

In June 2026, a record-breaking heatwave swept across Europe, with France among the first and hardest hit countries.

In a new analysis, we estimate that the extreme conditions caused more than 2,700 heat-related deaths in France.

We also show how France’s extreme temperatures in June exceeded projections from climate models.

Our findings illustrate the human toll of extreme weather as the world warms.

We also highlight the challenges in projecting the magnitude of future heatwaves and their impacts on people.

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2026 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #28

Posted on 12 July 2026 by BaerbelW, Doug Bostrom

Stories we promoted this week, by category:

Climate Change Impacts (11 articles)

• Ocean surface temperatures hit record high as world enters ‘uncharted territory,’ scientists warn Temperatures on the ocean surface hit a record high in June, European scientists warned Wednesday, fueling fears of more dangerous heat waves this summer and fanning concerns over the escalating global climate crisis.y NBC News, Chantal Da Silva, Jul 1, 2026.
• Heat, Drought, & Fires Disrupt USA`s 250th Anniversary - But We Ain`t Seen Nothing Yet A country that is by and large ignoring global heating is having celebrations of its 250-year anniversary/birthday canceled because of global heating. CleanTechnica, Zachary Shahan, Jul 04, 2026.
• Rising seas make once-rare coastal floods 12 times more likely Phys.org, Alexa St. John, Jul 04, 2026.
• Where do heat waves come from? Just like the adage “a rising tide lifts all boats,” a warming climate raises the baseline temperature from which heatwaves start. '' The Climate Brink, Andrew Dessler, Jul 04, 2026.
• Deadly heat wave in France shows the future of climate risk Professor Andrew Dessler points out that celebration over the recently retired RCP 8.5 emissions scenario is premature and irrelevant, given how Europe's scorching summer illustrates how ''low end'' warming we already live with is profoundly destructive. The Climate Brink, Andrew Dessler, Jul 07, 2026.
• June heatwave in UK led to `mass sleep deprivation`, poll suggests Record temperatures fuelled by climate crisis left 86% of homes ‘too hot’ and many people feeling unwell The Guardian, Damian Carrington, Jul 07, 2026.
• The Arctic Ocean may have passed a crucial tipping point that could harm food webs and worsen climate change Sea ice loss seems to have triggered a decline in the nutrient nitrate, affecting the tiny organisms that form the foundations of marine food chains and absorb atmospheric carbon dioxide, according to a new study. Smithsonian Magazine, Sara Hashemi, Jul 09, 2026.
• The oceans are full of heat, and it`s coming ashore The ocean absorbs 90 percent of the excess heat from global warming. It doesn't all stay there. Grist, Sachi Kitajima Mulkey, Jul 10, 2026.
• The Irreversible Global Impacts of Earth`s Lost Frozen Regions In a U.N. side event organized by the International Cryosphere Climate Initiative, researchers and experts discussed how exceeding 1.5°C will bring irreversible damage from the loss of global snow and ice regions. State of the Planet, Amy Indieke, Jul 10, 2026.
• What happened to Australia`s snow season? A climate expert explains The Conversation, Andrew B. Watkins, Jul 10, 2026.
• Pacific gray whales facing `catastrophic` die-off as climate crisis hits food supply Trump administration urged to relist a species in ‘very, very serious trouble’ under Endangered Species Act The Guardian, Tom Perkins, Jul 10, 2026.

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Skeptical Science New Research for Week #28 2028

Posted on 9 July 2026 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack

Open access notables

Fossil fuel emissions dominate Northern Hemisphere CO2 seasonal cycle trends under mitigation scenarios, Jin et al., Nature Communications

Variations in the atmospheric CO2 seasonal cycle across the Northern Hemisphere have historically been dominated by terrestrial ecosystems, making ground-based observations a reliable proxy for terrestrial carbon dynamics. However, whether this dominance will persist in the future remains uncertain. Here we combine atmospheric transport modeling with factorial simulations to assess and attribute future changes in the CO2 seasonal cycle through 2100. We show that the dominant drivers of these changes shift fundamentally across scenarios. Under the high-emission scenario (SSP5-8.5), strengthening land sinks dominate and amplify CO2 seasonal variability, preserving ground-based observations as a reliable terrestrial proxy. In contrast, under the low-emission scenario (SSP1-2.6), CO2 seasonal amplitude declines widely, driven primarily by reduced fossil fuel emissions and their dampened seasonality. Consequently, established ground-based CO2 observations may no longer reliably track terrestrial carbon dynamics under mitigation pathways, underscoring the need for new approaches for monitoring and climate policy verification.

Dynamic evaporative and radiative cooling for efficient year-round energy savings, Zhou et al., Science Advances

Electricity-free radiative cooling (RC) techniques are gaining ever-increasing attention to decrease energy consumption and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. However, the cooling power of RC in summer is severely limited by atmospheric window constraints and its negative effect in winter offsets annual energy savings in four-season regions. This study introduces a dynamic evaporative and radiative cooling (DERC) device to maximize the cooling power in hot summer and achieve year-round dynamic thermal management. Adaptive to changes in environmental temperature, the DERC device demonstrates dynamic regulation of water evaporation, along with notable modulation of solar and thermal radiation (ΔAsol = 87%; ΔεBroadband = 63%). Theoretical and real-time experiments demonstrate that the DERC device is more energy-efficient than cutting-edge dynamic radiative cooling (DRC) techniques. The energy-saving simulations indicate that the DERC device yields over 40% primary energy savings and CO2 emission reduction compared to the DRC device. This DERC device represents a conceptual advancement, paving the way for global energy savings and emission reductions.

Heating up the headlines: How tabloid framing reshaped Germany's Buildings Energy Act, Loschke et al., Energy Research & Social Science

Media has become a decisive force in shaping climate and energy policy, influencing not only which issues gain attention but also how they are framed and contested. This paper examines how BILD, Germany's largest tabloid, transformed the 2023 reform of the Buildings Energy Act (GEG) into one of the most polarizing political controversies in recent German history. Analyzing a corpus of 333 BILD articles from January 2023 to March 2024, we identify three dominant rhetorical strategies – personalisation, economic alarmism, and ideological framing – epitomised by the term “Heizungshammer”, which appeared over 250 times in BILD alone and spread to more than 1100 articles across the broader press. These narratives produced concrete policy outcomes: the progressive dilution and eventual abandonment of the 65% renewable energy obligation, the cancellation of planned building efficiency standards, and a reversal of Germany's position in EU negotiations on the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive. The case demonstrates that tabloid framing can migrate directly into legislative outcomes, with measurable consequences for climate governance ambition, highlighting the fragility of climate legislation in an age of digital populism.

Shades of Swedish climate scepticism: an exploration of explanatory factors on doubts about climate change, Mendy & Lindvall, Environmental Sociology 

This study examines the drivers of climate scepticism in Sweden, distinguishing between epistemic scepticism – doubts about the scientific evidence of climate change – and response scepticism, concerning doubts about the need or effectiveness of climate mitigation. Using a large-scale survey (n = 5280), we analyse how variants of political ideology – regarding economic and material aspects, and cultural values captured on the GAL-TAN scale – and trust shape these forms of scepticism. While relatively few respondents expressed epistemic scepticism, response scepticism was more prevalent. Low trust in scientists is the strongest determinant of epistemic scepticism, alongside TAN-oriented ideology. TAN orientation associates more strongly with response scepticism than epistemic scepticism, suggesting that individuals who accept climate science may still oppose mitigation policies, possibly due to a proclivity of social dominance orientation or political cues. A novel result is that attributional uncertainty, beliefs that climate is changing equally due to human and natural causes, is found to strongly associate with response scepticism, suggesting that more effective climate communication could alleviate such scepticism. The paper underscores the need to disentangle social mechanisms behind different sceptical climate beliefs and to refine the concept of response scepticism, as it may reflect distinct psychological and political dynamics.

From this week's government/NGO section:

The Power Behind AI. Wave of Dirty Gas Power Plants Planned for Data Centers, Bird et al., The Environmental Integrity Project:

At least 74 natural gas-fired power plants are planned across the U.S. to provide energy for the rapidly growing data center industry. These proposed gas plants, which would be dedicated to serving data centers, are expected to generate 143 gigawatts of electricity – enough to power the state of California nearly three times over. The plants would also release nearly 662 million tons per year of greenhouse gas pollution, which would have the climate-warming effect of 140 million cars and trucks driving for a year or the emissions from the entire nation of Australia. Beyond greenhouse gases, this wave of power plants for data centers could also release 159,142 tons of health-harming air pollutants, including 44,281 tons of nitrogen oxides that contribute to smog and lung damage and 32,684 tons of fine particulate matter, which can trigger heart and asthma attacks. And this is just the tip of the iceberg. This pollution is a small fraction of the likely environmental effect of the booming artificial intelligence (AI) industry and affiliated data centers. These 74 planned gas plants, including 71 new power plants and three plant expansions, would be connected directly to data centers — so-called “behind-the-meter” power plants. These plants are designed to provide their electricity primarily to data centers and not to compete with local households and businesses on regional power grids. More power plants are being planned across the U.S. that will indirectly serve the growing data center industry along with other consumers on the grid, which will likely drive up electricity prices for nearby residents.

Code, carbon, kilowatts: AI’s hidden toll and the race to green the grid, Patrick Hoffmann and Katharina Utermöhl, Allianz Research

Data-center investment reached USD580bn in 2025, putting AI on track to become one of the world's fastest-growing sources of electricity demand. Installed capacity is expected to double by 2030, with AI workloads already accounting for 15–20% of data-center electricity use and potentially approaching 40% by the end of the decade. Yet the sector's environmental footprint remains underestimated as most analyses focus only on operational electricity use. The authors take a broader systems view across 26 countries (+93% of global capacity), adding lifecycle emissions, water use and AI's growing resource demand. Identical workloads can generate up to 24 ti mes more emissions depending on the emission intensity of the grid, making location as decisive as demand growth. Fossil-dependent grids in Indonesia, India and Malaysia exceed 600 gCO₂/kWh, compared with under 30 gCO₂/kWh in Norway and Sweden. The US and China, which host the largest data-center clusters, sit in between at 384 gCO₂/kWh and 526 gCO₂/kWh, respectively, giving Europe's cleaner power mix a structural advantage for low-carbon AI growth. These disparities are amplified by transmission and distribution losses of 10–15% in some markets, while less reliable grids raise electricity needs and dependence on backup generation.

125 articles in 56 journals by 1121 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

A Link between African Surface Temperature and the Eastward Shift of Precipitation over the Indo-Pacific Maritime Continent Region, Hagos et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0192.1

Antarctic Sea-Ice Loss Enhances East Asian Summer Precipitation Through Tropical Ocean Warming, Zhu et al., Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2026ef008147

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Six charts show how clean power was world’s largest source of new energy in 2025

Posted on 8 July 2026 by Guest Author

This is a re-post from Carbon Brief

Clean power added more to global energy supplies than any other source in 2025, according to the latest Energy Institute statistical review of world energy.

Outside the Covid pandemic, it was also the first year ever in which wind and solar, when combined, contributed more new energy than any of the individual fossil fuels.

The findings illustrate the “growing prominence” of electricity in the global energy system, according to the Energy Institute, a professional membership body that took over the production of the annual statistical review from oil firm BP in 2023.

It notes that electricity demand is rising much faster, at 3% in 2025, than energy use overall at 1.7% – and that all of the new power supply came from low-carbon sources.

While it includes data on data-centre demand for the first time, the review shows that these only make up 2% of all electricity use and 15% of the increase in 2025.

(The review does not explore other sources of demand, but separate data shows electrification of industry, heat and transport is a far larger driver of growth than data centres.)

At the same time, every source of energy – including coal, oil, gas, nuclear and hydro – also reached global all-time highs in 2025, the statistical review shows.

While the 86% of “primary energy” that came from fossil fuels is a record low, their real contribution to the economy is far lower, because roughly two-thirds of their energy is lost during combustion.

Below, Carbon Brief highlights the key findings of the review in six charts.

• Global energy supplies increase 1.7% in 2025
• Fossil fuels met a record-low 86.2% of global energy supply
• The ‘primary energy fallacy’ ‘inflates fossil fuels’
• Wind and solar were biggest source of new energy in 2025
• Clean energy met all of global electricity growth in 2025
• China generates more power than the US, EU and India combined

Global energy supplies increase 1.7% in 2025

The review shows that global energy supply reached a record high in 2025, climbing 10 exajoules (EJ, 1.7%) to more than 600EJ for the first time ever.

Within this total, there were new all-time highs for every energy source: oil; coal; gas; nuclear; wind and solar; as well as hydro and other renewables. This is shown in the figure below.

Total global energy supply by fuel, exajoules. Source: Energy Institute (2026).

Notably, coal hit a new record of 166EJ in 2025, up 0.7% from a year earlier and 2.8% above the level reached in 2014, which had been seen as a potential peak for the fuel.

Wind and solar saw the fastest growth, up by 18.3% year-on-year, as well as adding more to global supplies – in combination – than any single fuel source.

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Eastern U.S. broils after heat wave kills over 1,300 in Europe

Posted on 7 July 2026 by Guest Author

This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Bob Henson and Jeff Masters

Update (Thursday, July 2, 3 p.m. EDT):

Extreme heat warnings covered much of the Midwest, mid-Atlantic, and Northeast U.S. on Thursday – including the heavily populated Interstate 95 corridor from Virginia to southern Maine – as a well-predicted heat wave intensified with the approach of a holiday weekend, bringing widespread temperatures above 100 degrees Fahrenheit. Millions of people are set to experience the hottest Fourth of July ever recorded in the history of their town or city. Parades, concerts, and other events were being rearranged, rescheduled, or moved indoors to avoid the worst of the dangerous heat.

As the United States prepared to commemorate the nation’s 250th birthday, the U.S. capital had entered one of the worst heat waves in its history.  As of midday Thursday, the official forecast for Washington’s Reagan National Airport was for highs of 102°F, 104°F, and 103°F for Thursday through Saturday, July 2-4. These readings would melt the D.C. daily records of 101°F, 101°F, and 100°F. In observations that go back to 1871, Washington has never recorded two consecutive days of 103°F, and the only three-day streak of highs reaching at least 102°F occurred way back on July 19-21, 1930.

Further north, the nation’s first capital city, Philadelphia, was on track for predicted highs of 103°F, 103°F and 101°F on Thursday through Saturday, which would tie the daily record on Thursday and approach the city’s monthly record of 104°F set on July 3, 1966. For what it’s worth, the temperature recorded in Philadelphia by president-to-be Thomas Jefferson at 1:00 p.m. on the day the Declaration of Independence was signed – July 4, 1776 – was a mere 72.5°F.

In New York, Central Park had already reached 100°F by 2 p.m., the first time it has reached the century mark since July 18, 2012. The forecast was for 101°F on Friday and 97°F on Saturday.  In 157 years of recordkeeping, Central Park has only had 5 pairs of consecutive days that both reached at least 101°F. The only pair of 102°F readings at Central Park occurred during the height of the central U.S. Dust Bowl on July 9-10, 1936.

Original article, posted on Monday, June 29:

As our fossil-fuel-warmed world careens into what’s likely to be months of record global-scale heat goosed by El Niño, early season heat waves are already proving tragic this summer. Most of central and northern Europe was assaulted over the past week by the continent’s worst heat wave ever recorded before the core summer months of July and August, and at least 1,300 people have died as a result.

Meanwhile, extreme heat watches extended along the U.S. East Coast on Monday from New Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania to southern Maine, foretelling a miserable and potentially record-setting heat wave that will run from midweek into the Fourth of July holiday across much of the U.S. east of the Appalachians. Heat indexes – reflecting air temperature plus humidity – may exceed 110 degrees across much of the extreme-heat watch area.

As of midday Monday, the official forecast for Washington’s Reagan National Airport was for highs of 99°F, 103°F, 103°F, and 101°F for Wednesday through Saturday, July 1-4. The city has never recorded two consecutive days of 103°F, and only a handful of heat waves have produced four-day strings of 99°F. In New York, Central Park’s forecast highs of 91°, 96°, 95°F, and 91°F for July 1-4 wouldn’t be as historic, but they would still make for a hot, sweaty lead-up to the holiday, especially with lows possibly staying above 80°F for two nights.

The National Weather Service office warned folks in and around Philadelphia: “Very warm low temperatures in the mid 70s to low 80s at night will not offer any relief from the heat. This combined with multiple days of near record-breaking temperatures will exacerbate the impacts from the heat and humidity.”

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How climate change influences extreme weather

Posted on 6 July 2026 by Guest Author

This is a re-post from The Climate Brink by Andrew Dessler

I am finalizing a textbook on climate risk and am posting chapters as I finish them. I’d previously posted chapters about embedded energy, physical climate risk, and transition risk. This post is a chapter on attribution of extreme weather to climate change. It is an emerging battleground in the public debate over climate change, so this chapter is an opportunity to get up to speed on the science.

Introduction

In the aftermath of any major weather disaster, the question inevitably arises: “Did climate change cause this disaster?” However, this is a bad way to think about the problem.Climate change does not cause a rainstorm, a heatwave, or a hurricane in a direct sense. These hazards would still occur in a world without human influence on the climate: hurricanes would still form over warm ocean waters, heatwaves would remain a product of stationary high-pressure systems, and low-pressure systems will always generate rain and the occasional flood.

But climate change can make these events more intense. It takes a heatwave and pushes the temperature higher. It adds moisture to a rain event, generating more intense rainfall, enhancing flooding. Warmer oceans make a hurricane’s winds stronger and its rainfall more severe.

Therefore, the scientifically interesting question is not “Did climate change cause this?”, but about influence:

1.How much morelikely did climate change make this event?

2.How much moreintense did climate change make this event?

Answering these questions is the work of a rapidly advancing field of science called Extreme Event Attribution. This chapter will explore the methods scientists use to disentangle the roles of natural variability and climate change.

To understand the two different ways of looking at the problem, let’s examine a hot 38°C (99°F) day in a hypothetical city (like Houston, Texas) and examine each question in turn.

1. How much more likely has climate change made a 38°C day?

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2026 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #27

Posted on 5 July 2026 by BaerbelW, Doug Bostrom

Stories we promoted this week, by category:

Climate Change Impacts (11 articles)

• The scientist and his family tracking melting glaciers for nearly half a century PBS NewsHour, Ben Tracy, June 22, 2026.
• Europe’s record heatwave: does the continent have a new climate? Nature asks researchers whether scorching summers are the new norm for London, Paris and Berlin. Nature, Edward Chen, June 26, 2026.
• How climate change gets under the skin Researchers unearth clues about how repeat, overlapping climate stressors, from flood-related mold to warming water temperatures to higher pollen counts, affect everyone Grist, Zoya Teirstein, Jun 28, 2026.
• Climate change to blame for intensity of Europe heat wave: Scientists Phys.org, Nick Perry, Jun 28, 2026.
• Could this be Australia`s warmest winter ever? The seasons underway in Australia exemplify a worldwide trend of unseasonably high temperatures, including the early summer heatwave in western Europe. The Conversation, Milton Speer, University of Technology Sydney, Lance M Leslie, University of Technology Sydney, Jun 29, 2026.
• Loading the Heat Dice Without human influence, the recent European heatwave would have been more than 3°C cooler. Climate Trunk, John Lang, Jun 30, 2026.
• How climate change influences extreme weather How science shows us how warming makes heat waves, floods, hurricanes, and wildfires more likely or more severe — and why this science is becoming a major public-policy battleground. The Climate Brink, Andrew Dessler, Jun 30, 2026.
• The world`s oceans are the hottest on record for June - and El Niño is set to turn up the heat even more Average sea surface temperature is just under 21°C across the world’s tropical and temperate oceans, while before widespread industrialisation in 1870 the temperature was about 19.6°C. The Conversation, Matthew England, Alex Sen Gupta, Alistair Hobday, Jul 02, 2026.
• Tour de France braced for historic stage cancellations amid 44C European heatwave The 2026 Tour de France, which starts in Barcelona on Saturday, is steeling itself for climate change disruption with another extreme heatwave predicted to return to Europe in the coming days which could lead to stages being cancelled. The Guardian, Jeremy Whittle in Barcelona, Jul 02, 2026.
• Without Climate Change, U.S. Heat Wave Called `Virtually Impossible` Scientists have said the conditions are the result of a climate that is “fundamentally different” from the time before fossil fuel use started rapidly warming the world. NYT, Raymond Zhong, Jul 03, 2026.
• Sydney records hottest June since 1859 as expert warns new high a `signature` of global warming Prof Andy Pitman, a Sydney-based climate scientist, expressed a “complete lack of surprise” at the new record. The Guardian, Ima Caldwell, Jul 04, 2026.

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