Explaining climate change science & rebutting global warming misinformation
Global warming is real and human-caused. It is leading to large-scale climate change. Under the guise of climate "skepticism", the public is bombarded with misinformation that casts doubt on the reality of human-caused global warming. This website gets skeptical about global warming "skepticism".
Our mission is simple: debunk climate misinformation by presenting peer-reviewed science and explaining the techniques of science denial, discourses of climate delay, and climate solutions denial.
Posted on 6 April 2026 by John Cook, BaerbelW, Doug Bostrom, dana1981
13 years ago the Skeptical Science team ran a research project to quantify scientific consensus on global warming, finding that 97% of relevant climate papers agreed that humans were causing global warming. We put a call out for contributions to help us cover the cost of the journal publication fee. And we reached this goal within 9 hours! The paper went on to be tweeted by President Obama the day after publication, and was cited by Prime Ministers, Senators, Congresspeople, and late night TV comedians, not to mention winning awards and being downloaded over 1.5 million times. Not bad for a crowd-funded research paper!
Today in 2026 we’re now delighted to announce that the Skeptical Science team has just published our results from a new research project, in Geoscience Communication. Our culminating peer-reviewed research report (Cook et al. 2026) represents years of careful data collection and analysis, and is a critical step in providing real-world evidence for effective climate communication.
Screenshot of the abstract from our paper published in Geoscience Communication (Cook et al. 2026).
Quantifying the Impact of Skeptical Science Rebuttals in Reducing Climate Misperceptions.
We designed our study to assess the real-world effectiveness of Skeptical Science's 250+ rebuttals in reducing acceptance of climate myths and increasing acceptance of climate facts.
Over a period spanning from November 2021 to July 2025, we conducted a field experiment by collecting survey data from visitors directly on our skepticalscience.com website. Specifically, visitors who arrived at a rebuttal from a Google search in the US, UK, or Australia were invited to participate. You may even have been among readers seeing the related screens!
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Posted on 5 April 2026 by BaerbelW, John Hartz, Doug Bostrom
A listing of 28 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, March 29, 2026 thru Sat, April 4, 2026.
Stories we promoted this week, by category:
Climate Change Impacts (8 articles)
- `Very alarming` winter sees Arctic sea ice hit record-low for second year running The biggest distinctly continues to get smaller in the Arctic, as maximum ice extent for this past winter follows a downward trend caused by a warming planet. Carbon Brief, Carbon Brief Staff, Mar 27, 2026.
- Fire season fears grow amid western heat wave CNN, Andrew Freedman, Mar 27, 2026.
- As a mind-boggling heat wave begins to wrap up, we look at some initial numbers "Over 1,500 new monthly records for March and over 500 tied monthly records with virtually no modern equivalent event in any month." The Eyewall, Matt Lanza, Mar 30, 2026.
- Oceans are absorbing the Earth’s excess energy. That’s bad news for food systems. "As the planet traps more energy than it releases, the pathways for global food production are being upended." Grist, Frida Garza, Mar 31, 2026.
- How wildfires and storms drove insurance losses in 2025 – in three charts "Extreme weather events around the world, such as wildfires and storms, were the major driver behind $107bn in insured losses in 2025, according to industry data." Carbon Brief, Multiple Authors, Mar 31, 2026.
- ‘On a whole other level’: rapid snow melt-off in American west stuns scientists "Experts say brutal March heat has left critical snowpack at record-low levels – and key basins in uncharted territory" The Guardian, Gabrielle Canon, Apr 1, 2026.
- The 2026 Southwest U.S. heat wave was one of the six most astonishing weather events of the century "From the Pacific Northwest to Antarctica, it’s extraordinary warmth that’s punching through climate norms with the most force." Yale Climate Connections, Jeff Masters & Bob Henson, Apr 3, 2026.
- From early birds to emerging butterflies: UK shows signs of earliest spring on record Citizen science data reveals early flowering, nesting and insect activity as global heating accelerate seasonal change World news The Guardian, Patrick Barkham, Apr 04, 2026.
Climate Policy and Politics (5 articles)
- Vermont Hits Back at Trump’s Effort to Block ‘Climate Superfund’ Law "The law would make fuel companies help pay for damages caused by climate change. The administration argues it’s unconstitutional." The New York Times, Mar 30, 2026, Karen Zraick , Mar 30, 2026.
- The Trump Administration’s New Biofuels Targets Threaten Carbon-Rich Rainforests "The U.S. doesn’t have enough bio-based diesel to meet the administration’s new mandate, so blenders will have to import yet more foreign crop-based oils." Inside Climate News, Georgina Gustin, Mar 31, 2026.
- Trump’s Iran war and drilling push show ‘dangerous volatility’ of fossil fuel era "Critics say president is locking into 20th-century energy systems even as his ‘bet’ on oil and gas ‘isn’t going so well’ " The Guardian, Oliver Milman, Mar 31, 2026.
- What the Iran conflict means for gas prices, clean energy, and the climate "U.S. gas prices could hit $7 a gallon if the Strait of Hormuz remains restricted through June. Here’s how that could affect EVs, wind, and solar." Yale Climate Connections, Dana Nuccitelli, Apr 1, 2026.
- ‘Like relying on a drug dealer:’ The world’s dependence on oil and gas has exposed a dangerous vulnerability CNN, Laura Paddison & Ella Nilsen, Apr 2, 2026.
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Posted on 2 April 2026 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack
Open access notables
Quantifying climate loss and damage consistent with a social cost of carbon, Burke et al., Nature
Climate change is causing measurable harm globally1,2. Political and legal efforts seek to link these damages with specific emissions, including in discussions of loss and damage (L&D)3,4; however, no quantitative definition of L&D exists5,6, nor is there a framework to link past and future emissions from specific sources to monetized, location-specific damages. Here we develop such a framework, which is integrated with recent efforts to estimate the social cost of carbon7. Using empirical estimates of the non-linear relationship between temperature and aggregate economic output, we show that future damages from past emissions—one component of L&D—are at least an order of magnitude larger than historical damages from the same emissions. For instance, one tonne of CO2 emitted in 1990 caused US$180 in discounted global damages by 2020 ($40–530) and will cause an additional $1,840 through 2100 ($500–5,700). Thus, settling debts for past damages will not settle debts for past emissions. In other illustrative estimates, a single long-haul flight per year over the past decade leads to about $25k ($6,000–77,000) in future damages by 2100, and US emissions since 1990 caused $500 billion ($180–1,300 billion) of damage in India and $330 billion ($110–820 billion) in Brazil. Carbon removal offers an alternative to transfer payments for settling L&D, but is increasingly ineffective in limiting damages as the delay between emission and recapture increases.
Collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation would lead to substantial oceanic carbon release and additional global warming, Nian et al., Communications Earth & Environment
The potential collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation could profoundly impact regional and global climates, yet its effects on the carbon cycle and subsequently global temperature remain seriously underexplored. Here we quantify carbon cycle responses across different background global warming levels using a fast Earth system model. We find that Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation collapse increases atmospheric carbon dioxide by 47–83 ppm carbon dioxide, leading to around 0.2 °C of additional global warming at higher carbon dioxide background levels after offsetting ocean-dynamics-driven cooling. Despite the modest global warming effect, regional temperature anomalies are pronounced: Arctic temperatures cool by ~ 7 °C (60 °N–90 °N), while Antarctic temperatures warm by ~ 6 °C (60 °S–90 °S). This latter response originates from deep convection triggered in the Southern Ocean, which ventilates deep carbon-rich waters. Such long-term equilibrium responses reveal key physical and carbon-cycle mechanisms and highlight substantial regional climate risks associated with an Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation collapse.
Deadly heat stress conditions are already occurring, Perkins-Kirkpatrick et al., Nature Communications
Heat stress limits for human survivability have been previously defined by a 6-hour exposure to a wet-bulb temperature of 35oC. However, the recently developed physiology-based HEAT-Lim model demonstrates that environmental heat stress thresholds may be cooler and drier than previously thought. We employ HEAT-Lim to determine whether non-survivable thresholds were surpassed during six historical events where conditions were climatologically extreme and/or high heat-related mortality was reported. Our results show that non-survivable conditions are occurring during present-day heat events, all of which are below 35oC wet-bulb temperature. Of concern is regular exceedances of deadly thresholds for older people directly exposed across all events. Moreover, extremely hot yet dry conditions are found to be just as deadly as hot and humid conditions. For future climatological assessments, we emphasise the importance of employing increasingly accurate physiology-derived methods to assess the risk of potentially deadly heat stress.
The “Nuclear Energy Paradox”- Investigating nuclear imaginaries in energy projections, Böse et al., Energy Research & Social Science
Current energy projections often envision an expansion of nuclear capacities to decarbonize future energy systems. However, this contrasts with the historic and current status of the nuclear industry, marked by techno-economic challenges for both light-water and non-light-water reactor technologies. Regardless, projections of strong nuclear growth have persisted since the 1970s. This paper investigates the “nuclear energy paradox” which shows the recurring divergence between historical projections and actual developments. A data compilation of long-term energy projections from international organizations such as the IAEA and the IEA as well as energy system models like GCAM and MESSAGE, as used in the IPCC, reveal a recurring pattern of high-growth projections for nuclear power. Such projections often rest on techno-economic assumptions such as substantial cost reductions. We propose the concept of nuclear imaginaries to show that these assumptions are embedded into techno-economic visions of nuclear power development, which shape model assumptions and narratives. The historic perspective helps to show that nuclear imaginaries may never materialize and remain in a hypothetical state for decades. Our findings support decision-makers in making more informed decisions and urge for caution when interpreting energy scenarios and projections, especially for nuclear power.
Climate denial and the classroom: a review, Kutney, Geoscience Communication
Climate change awareness is floundering across the globe despite climate change education being embedded in international treaties to address the climate crisis – the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (the UNFCCC) and the subsequent Paris Agreement. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) acknowledges forces hostile to climate awareness and education – namely, climate denial sponsored by the energy-industrial complex. Climate change is studied by the physical sciences, but climate denial is the purview of the social sciences; the latter has revealed the why and how of climate denial. Climate-denial organizations (which directly deny aspects of the scientific consensus on climate change) and the related petro-pedagogy groups (which teach that oil is a benefactor to humanity, but say little about the connection of fossil fuels to the climate crisis) have arisen to attempt to interfere with the teaching of the science of climate change in school classrooms. These organizations were found in the United States, Canada, and some European nations (this review is mainly restricted to English-language sources). This review aims to (1) provide an overview of climate denial, promoted and funded by the energy-industrial complex; (2) identify and examine organizations involved in climate denial in schools; (3) summarize the strategies of climate-denial organizations in school classrooms; and (4) put forward recommendations for further research and action.
From this week's government/NGO section:
Trump Administration Actions to Curtail Offshore Wind Energy Development Meet Judicial Resistance, Adam Vann, Congressional Research Service
In 2025 the Trump Administration took a number of actions that could affect the continued development and use of renewable energy resources, especially offshore wind energy projects. These actions, which include orders halting the development or operation of individual projects, have resulted in numerous lawsuits. Several courts have ruled that the suspension orders and other executive actions announcing or implementing the Administration's offshore wind policies are unlawful, and the Department of the Interior (DOI) has indicated its intent to appeal those rulings. This Legal Sidebar provides an overview of the legal framework governing offshore wind energy development, discusses the Trump Administration's recent actions and related litigation, and identifies considerations for Congress.
Building A Heat Resilience Roadmap for the Gulf Region, Leigh Mante, Observer Research Foundation
The escalating heat challenge facing the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries will only worsen in the coming years. As they rapidly urbanize and diversify their economies towards non-oil activities, the urban heat island effect intensifies too, increasing demand for cooling. All these will continue to strain electricity grids and increase carbon emissions, propelling the region into a dangerous cycle of rising temperatures. Addressing the mounting risks of extreme heat is therefore an imperative for the Gulf’s long-term economic prosperity. The author explores the impacts of extreme heat across the region’s health, labor, supply chains, and infrastructure; analyses the GCC’s anticipatory heat policies and responsive sustainable cooling and climate-resilient adaptation policies; identifies key policy gaps; and offers feasible pathways to build a strategic heat resilience roadmap.
87 articles in 48 journals by 505 contributing authors
Physical science of climate change, effects
Arctic sea ice loss shifting from edge to interior increases cold surges in mid-latitude Asia, Wang et al., Atmospheric Research Open Access 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108944
Circulation of Baffin Bay and Hudson Bay waters on the Labrador shelf and into the subpolar North Atlantic, Duyck et al., Ocean Science Open Access pdf 10.5194/os-21-241-2025
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Posted on 1 April 2026 by Guest Author
This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Karin Kirk
s of this writing, every river basin across the entire Western U.S. has below-average snow. Colorado, Utah, Washington, Oregon, California, and Nevada – the workplaces of thousands of ski area employees like me – are sitting at 15 to 65% of average snowpack for this time of year. Some ski areas closed in the middle of the season, and others decided to close early this year. Many cut employee hours.
“This year was a catastrophic year,” said Auden Schendler, who shepherded the Aspen Ski Company’s sustainability program for 26 years.
Winter enthusiasts know that bad years happen. But “in a climate-changed world, you’re more likely to see multiple years of aberration stacked together,” Schendler said.
Many mountain communities rely on winter sports as the centerpiece of their economies and way of life. As the climate warms and snow becomes increasingly unreliable, skiing and snowboarding are on thin ice.
But surprisingly, the snowsports industry has not mounted an aggressive campaign for climate action.
Ski areas have taken some steps to trim their climate pollution, but a Yale Climate Connections analysis of a recent report shows that their efforts don’t match the scale or urgency of the threat posed by climate change.
And even as the industry publicizes its sustainability programs, “none of it had anything to do with solving a global systemic problem like climate change,” Schendler said.
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Posted on 31 March 2026 by Guest Author
This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Rachel Ramirez
or Solomon Pili Kaho’ohalahala, a Native Hawaiian elder known as “Uncle Sol” from the island of Lana’i, the ocean is his lifeline. Over the past few years, he has become the voice of a growing Indigenous movement demanding a moratorium on deep-sea mining, which President Donald Trump has labeled an “urgent matter of national security,” but islanders see as a threat to their home, their food supply, and their way of life.
“We are oceanic people; this is our home,” said Kaho’ohalahala, 75, who like his ancestors grew up as a hunter, gatherer, and fisherman in the Pacific Ocean.
As international regulators scramble to codify the rules, countries like the U.S., Japan, and China are moving to carve up the seafloor’s most mineral-rich areas. More than 40 countries have formally called for a moratorium against deep-sea mining in international waters, with four U.S. states – Hawai’i, Washington, Oregon, and California – already enacting bans.
Kaho’ohalahala has been bringing Indigenous perspectives to the international stage, urging regulators to see the ocean as more than a ledger.
“For them, it’s just a money deal,” he said. “It’s not about the resources, it’s not about people, and it’s not about a vision for the long-term needs of our children yet unborn.”
The rush to mine the ocean floor is being sold as part of a green solution, but for the Pacific, the ecological and cultural costs are staggering. Here’s how the process works and why the controversy is deepening.
What is deep-sea mining?
Proponents argue that deep-sea mining is a new industrial frontier vital to acquiring the metals needed for the renewable energy transition, along with everything from smartphones to missile systems to artificial intelligence. It involves extracting critical minerals like cobalt and nickel from the deepest parts of the ocean. The latest techniques involve dredging or vacuuming the seafloor using large, robotic equipment.
Commercial mining has yet to begin, but exploration is underway. Tens of thousands of residents from U.S. territories have already signed a petition calling for a moratorium.
How do deep-sea miners operate?
Mining the deep seas requires lowering massive machinery into the abyssal plains, as deep as 6,000 meters beneath the waves – the depth of nearly 15 Empire State buildings. These machines scrape, suck, and dredge the seabed to collect mineral deposits, which can be polymetallic sulfides or deposits that form around underwater volcanic openings or mud rich in rare earth elements.
The sought-after deposits are the potato-sized, polymetallic nodules rich in critical minerals like cobalt, copper, nickel, and manganese. Machines then lift the harvest up to a vessel on the ocean’s surface, where collectors separate the nodules from unwanted sediment that is dumped back into the ocean.
Every polymetallic nodule starts as a hard fragment on the ocean floor, like a fossilized shark tooth or a volcanic rock. Over millions of years, dissolved metals – fine bits of manganese, iron, nickel, and cobalt that have washed into the sea from rivers or leaked out of underwater volcanoes – settle and build up on each fragment. It’s such an incredibly slow process that by the time a nodule is the size of a potato, it may be 10 million years old.
A polymetallic nodule that contains manganese. (Image credit: Rachel Ramirez)
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Posted on 30 March 2026 by Zeke Hausfather
This is a re-post from The Climate Brink
Imagine if I told you that the damages from climate change next year are worth 12% less to me than climate damages today. And 12% less the year after that. That the harms from climate change on people alive in the year 2100 are only worth one fiftieth as much as impacts on people this year. You’d probably call me selfish, heartless, or a similar slew of invectives, and rightly insist that the welfare of future generations should not be sacrificed for my short term benefit.
But a somewhat obscure climate policy choice of how to value methane emissions compared to CO2 is doing just that – and unfortunately a number of climate scientists who should know better are defending it.
The broader context is a big fight at the moment over proposed revisions to New York’s state climate law. Governor Hochul is proposing both delaying the implementation of the law (which in my opinion is not a good thing), and changing the way that methane is treated by using a 100-year timeframe rather than a 20-year one. It is my opinion as a climate scientist that using a 20-year timeframe is deeply problematic – and I’m far from the only one in the community with that view. In this piece I’ll try and explain why.
To understand why the timeline over which methane is compared to CO2 matters, we first need to understand the different climate effects of the two gases. I’ve written about this at some length in the past, but here is a short summary.
Methane is relatively short-lived, with a lifetime of around 10 years. But while it is in the atmosphere it has a very strong climate effect, trapping on the order of 100x more heat than CO2 for every ton. Methane is short-lived because it oxidizes in the atmosphere, breaking down into CO2 and H2O through a long chain of chemical reactions catalyzed by interactions with OH radicals.
CO2, by contrast, is extremely long-lived. The mean atmospheric lifetime is on the order of 10,000 years, though this is dominated by a very long (~400k year) tail associated with silicate weathering. On shorter timescale around 60% of a pulse of emissions is absorbed by land and ocean carbon sinks (though the strength of these may change as a result of our changing climate).
These different lifetimes mean that methane does not accumulate in the atmosphere over longer timeframes, while CO2 does. Methane is a “flow pollutant”, in that its climate effect is a function of the rate of emissions, while CO2 is a “stock pollutant” whose impacts are a function of cumulative emissions.
Diagram showing the relationship between emissions and temperature for CO2 and methane (CH4). From Allen et al., 2017.
If emissions of methane increase, we get warming. If they stay flat, their temperature effect is constant, while if they decline we get cooling. CO2 emissions, on the other hand, always warm the planet. Increasing CO2 emissions cause warming to speed up, flat CO2 emissions cause steady warming, and decreasing CO2 emissions slow (but do not stop) warming. The only way to get cooling with CO2 is to actively remove past emissions from the atmosphere.
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Posted on 29 March 2026 by BaerbelW, John Hartz, Doug Bostrom
A listing of 27 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, March 22, 2026 thru Sat, March 28, 2026.
Stories we promoted this week, by category:
Climate Change Impacts (10 articles)
- ‘Pushing extremes to new levels’: Record US heat dome made possible by climate change "‘Insurers walking away’ is the clearest sign unpredictable weather extremes are spiralling out of control, one expert says." AP/Euronewsdotcom, Angela Symons, Mar 20, 2026.
- Record-torching March heat ‘virtually impossible’ without climate change "Friday’s spring equinox may seem like a quaint notion to those already enduring furnace-like 90-110°F summer heat." Yale Climate Connections, Jeff Masters & Bob Henson, Mar 20, 2026.
- Extreme heat continues to strike Southwest US and even Nebraska needs a cold drink AP News, Staff, Mar 21, 2026.
- Earth’s climate swings increasingly out of balance World Meteorololgical Organization (WMO), Staff, Mar 23, 2026.
- Mind-blowing March heat wave crests; records melt from Arizona to Minnesota Fourteen states have set all-time March heat records, and the U.S.-wide record was tied or beaten on four consecutive days. Yale Climate Connections, Bob Henson and Jeff Masters, Mar 23, 2026.
- Past CO2 emissions may drive far bigger future economic losses Study identifies how CO2 emissions can pencil out as positive economic assets for some but turn into much larger economic deficits for others— leading to a net loss for all. Phys.org, Stephanie Baum, Mar 25, 2026.
- Winter Sea Ice in the Arctic Ties a Record Low Ice plays a vital role in reflecting away planet-warming sunlight. The Arctic is warming much faster than most other parts of the world. New York Times, Sachi Kitajima Mulkey and Harry Stevens, Mar 26, 2026.
- This Year`s US Wildfires Have Already Set Records That Could Foreshadow a Smoky, Fiery Summer Recently released data show how drought, paltry Western snows and unseasonable heat, all exacerbated by climate change, could be priming the nation for a long wildfire season. Inside Climate News, Jake Bolster, Mar 27, 2026.
- Global maps show alien plant invasion hotspots shifting poleward Phys.org, University of Vienna, Mar 27, 2026.
- Arctic sea ice hits lowest winter level as heat records are shattered worldwide Vital Arctic sea ice shrank to basically tie its lowest measured level for the winter, the season when ice grows, as a warming Earth shattered records across the continents. CBS News, Staff, Mar 27, 2026.
Health Aspects of Climate Change (4 articles)
- Scientist issues warning about common household threat linked to 4 million deaths each year "If progress slows, the burden will continue to fall most heavily on the places least able to bear it." The Cool Down (TCD), Tina Deines, Mar 21, 2026.
- Global Warming Could Cause 700,000 Early Deaths by 2050 Seoul Economic Daily, Seo Ji-hye, Mar 22, 2026.
- Climate-Fueled Wildfires and Dust Storms Drove Up Air Pollution Around the World Last Year A new report shows air pollution threatens the majority of the world’s population, while information gaps increase the risks. Inside Climate News, Kiley Bense & Keerti Gopal, Mar 24, 2026.
- The frantic, high-tech fight to stop climate-fueled dengue fever Scientists in Brazil and Peru may have found a way to beat mosquitoes at their own game. The U.S. may soon need to do the same. Grist, Zoya Teirstein, Mar 25, 2026.
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Posted on 26 March 2026 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack
Open access notables
Indicators of Global Climate Change 2022: annual update of large-scale indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence, Forster et al., Earth System Science Data
We follow methods as close as possible to those used in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Working Group One (WGI) report. We compile monitoring datasets to produce estimates for key climate indicators related to forcing of the climate system: emissions of greenhouse gases and short-lived climate forcers, greenhouse gas concentrations, radiative forcing, surface temperature changes, the Earth's energy imbalance, warming attributed to human activities, the remaining carbon budget, and estimates of global temperature extremes. The purpose of this effort, grounded in an open data, open science approach, is to make annually updated reliable global climate indicators available in the public domain (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8000192, Smith et al., 2023a). As they are traceable to IPCC report methods, they can be trusted by all parties involved in UNFCCC negotiations and help convey wider understanding of the latest knowledge of the climate system and its direction of travel.
The indicators show that human-induced warming reached 1.14 [0.9 to 1.4] ?C averaged over the 2013–2022 decade and 1.26 [1.0 to 1.6] ?C in 2022. Over the 2013–2022 period, human-induced warming has been increasing at an unprecedented rate of over 0.2 ?C per decade. This high rate of warming is caused by a combination of greenhouse gas emissions being at an all-time high of 54 ± 5.3 GtCO2e over the last decade, as well as reductions in the strength of aerosol cooling. Despite this, there is evidence that increases in greenhouse gas emissions have slowed, and depending on societal choices, a continued series of these annual updates over the critical 2020s decade could track a change of direction for human influence on climate.
The political economy of leaving fossil fuels underground: The case of producing countries, Pellegrini, Energy Policy
After 30 years of failed attempts to establish an effective global climate policy regime, world leaders have started to acknowledge that fossil fuels must stay underground to make any conspicuous progress towards greenhouse gas emissions reduction. The fact that most fossil fuel reserves are ‘unburnable’ is the corollary of the relationship between the remaining carbon budget and the emissions embedded in existing fossil fuel reserves. Nevertheless, companies and countries are planning to extract quantities of fossil fuels well above those compatible with the 1.5 °C, and even 2 °C, global warming targets. Changing course will have vast implications for the global economy and require that fossil fuel-producing countries forgo substantial rents – the extranormal profits associated with fossil fuel extraction. In this conceptual and theoretical contribution, we discuss the political economy of fossil fuel supply phase-out. We focus on economic rents and investigate strategies to align phase-out feasibility with justice. These strategies include stripping companies of their entitlements to future rents, the possible use of compensation in favor of producing countries and ensuring long-term commitment from these countries.
Solar radiation modification challenges decarbonization with renewable solar energy, Baur et al., Earth System Dynamics
Solar radiation modification (SRM) is increasingly being discussed as a potential tool to reduce global and regional temperatures to buy time for conventional carbon mitigation measures to take effect. However, most simulations to date assume SRM to be an additive component to the climate change toolbox, without any physical coupling between mitigation and SRM. In this study we analyze one aspect of this coupling: how renewable energy (RE) capacity, and therefore decarbonization rates, may be affected under SRM deployment by modification of photovoltaic (PV) and concentrated solar power (CSP) production potential. Simulated 1 h output from the Earth system model CNRM-ESM2-1 for scenario-based experiments is used for the assessment. The SRM scenario uses stratospheric aerosol injections (SAIs) to approximately lower global mean temperature from the high-emission scenario SSP585 baseline to the moderate-emission scenario SSP245. We find that by the end of the century, most regions experience an increased number of low PV and CSP energy weeks per year under SAI compared to SSP245. Compared to SSP585, while the increase in low energy weeks under SAI is still dominant on a global scale, certain areas may benefit from SAI and see fewer low PV or CSP energy weeks. A substantial part of the decrease in potential with SAI compared to the SSP scenarios is compensated for by optically thinner upper-tropospheric clouds under SAI, which allow more radiation to penetrate towards the surface. The largest relative reductions in PV potential are seen in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere midlatitudes. Our study suggests that using SAI to reduce high-end global warming to moderate global warming could pose increased challenges for meeting energy demand with solar renewable resources.
Can a Future-Self Letter Exchange Motivate Climate Action Intentions and Support for Environmental Advocacy Groups?, Pittaway et al., Journal of Environmental Psycholog
Perceptions of continuity between present and future selves are associated with a range of future-oriented outcomes, including behaviours which are necessary to avert catastrophic future climate change. Past research has established that future self-continuity can be increased through experimental tasks which connect people to, and increase the perceived vividness of, the future self, but few studies have tested whether these interventions could mobilise pro-environmental behaviour change. Across two pre-registered studies, we tested whether exchanging letters with the future self over the near versus distant future influenced Australians’ intentions to take climate action, endorsement of environmental advocacy groups, and monetary support for these groups. We additionally explored whether the effect of the future-self letter exchange was strengthened by a collective future focus in Study 1 (N = 303), and by the salience of environmental issues in Study 2 (N = 319). In both studies, exchanging letters with the distant future self resulted in higher future self-vividness, but did not impact future self-connectedness. The future-self task also had very limited effects on the dependent variables in Study 1, and no effects in Study 2. Our results contradict the findings of past environmental future self-continuity interventions and raise questions about the true mechanism of the effects in these studies.
From this week's government/NGO section:
State of the Global Climate 2025, Kennedy et al., World Meteorological Organization
The authors confirm that 2015-2025 are the hottest 11-years on record, and that 2025 was the second or third hottest year on record, at about 1.43 °C above the 1850-1900 average. Extreme events around the world, including intense heat, heavy rainfall and tropical cyclones, caused disruption and devastation and highlighted the vulnerability of the existing inter-connected economies and societies. The ocean continues to warm and absorb carbon dioxide. It has been absorbing the equivalent of about 18 times the annual human energy use each year for the past two decades. Annual sea ice extent in the Arctic was at or near a record low, Antarctic sea ice extent was the third lowest on record, and glacier melt continued unabated, according to the report. For the first time, the report includes the Earth’s energy imbalance as one of the key climate indicators.
Record-shattering March temperatures in Western North America virtually impossible without climate change, World Weather Attribution
Heatwaves as observed in March 2026 in western North America are still rare events, even in today’s climate which has warmed by 1.3°C due to the burning of fossil fuels, with a return period of about 500 years. As this assessment partly includes forecast data, to prevent an overestimation of the extremeness of the event the authors use a return period of 100 years throughout the analysis. Without climate change it is virtually impossible for this event to occur.
92 articles in 48 journals by 652 contributing authors
Physical science of climate change, effects
Surface Temperature Reversibility and the Roles of Clouds on the Decadal Time Scale, Ge et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0488.1
Stronger ENSO-induced global SST variability in a warming climate, Hong et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-70140-9
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Posted on 25 March 2026 by Zeke Hausfather
This is a re-post from The Climate Brink
El Niño and its sister La Niña are the warm and cool phases of a natural climate pattern across the tropical Pacific (collectively called the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO). The planet shifts back and forth irregularly between El Niño and La Niña every two to seven years, changing ocean temperatures and disrupting wind and rainfall patterns across the tropics. This in turn has a number of second-order effects around the planet.
El Niño also has a major effect on global temperatures, reducing the rate of ocean heat uptake and increasing atmospheric temperatures. Global mean temperature can temporarily increase as much as 0.2C during a very strong El Niño event, with the maximum temperature increase in global mean temperature occurring around 3 to 4 months after El Niño conditions peak in the tropical Pacific.
In the past week, a number of modeling groups that try to forecast future ENSO conditions have released forecasts that suggest that a very strong El Niño may be in the works for late 2026. This is a notable revision upwards from earlier forecasts in January and February that suggested that an El Niño might develop, but that it would likely be more modest. Historically it has been hard to precisely predict ENSO development early in the year – hence the famed spring predictability barrier –
I’ve collected 11 different models that have been updated since the beginning of March. Each of these in turn features a number of ensemble members, so that we end up with 433 total ENSO forecasts. A subset of these obtained from Copernicus’ C3S (from Australia’s BOM, CMCC, DWD, ECMWF, and Meteo-France) only extend through August, while the remainder (CFSv2, ECC-CanESM5, ECC-GEM5.2, NASA-GEOS, NCAR-CCSM4, and NCAR-CESM1) extend all the way through November.
The figure below shows a combined super plume of all the ensemble members of all the models, with the mean of each model shown as a bold colored line and the average of all the models (the multi-model mean) shown as a black dashed line.
Super plume of ENSO forecasts from 11 different models. Data from Copernicus C3S, NMME, and CFSv2 (last 10 day ensemble). Datasets are normalized to use a 1991-2020 baseline period.
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Posted on 24 March 2026 by Sue Bin Park
Skeptical Science is partnering with Gigafact to produce fact briefs — bite-sized fact checks of trending claims. You can submit claims you think need checking via the tipline.
Is 'wind-turbine syndrome' a medically recognized diagnosis?
An extensive body of studies and reviews has not found a clear, direct link between wind turbines’ low-frequency sound and any specific health syndromes. No medical organization recognizes such diagnoses.
Wind turbines do produce low-frequency noise, but at typical residential distances it is often below normal hearing levels. Public health agencies and systematic reviews conclude that reported symptoms such as sleep disruption and stress are not consistently tied to low-frequency sound exposure. Instead, research suggests complaints are more strongly associated with factors such as annoyance, worry, and negative expectations about nearby turbines.
An analysis of complaints across 51 Australian wind farms between 1993 and 2012 found that health and noise complaints were uncommon for years, then rose sharply after the term “wind turbine syndrome” was newly coined and popularized in 2009, suggesting self-pathologization.
Overall, the evidence does not support low-frequency turbine noise as a cause of a distinct medical condition.
Go to full rebuttal on Skeptical Science or to the fact brief on Gigafact
This fact brief is responsive to quotes such as this one.
Sources
U.S. Department of Energy Frequently Asked Questions about Wind Energy
Australian Government National Health and Medical Research Council NHMRC Statement: Evidence on Wind Farms and Human Health
Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews Health effects of wind turbine noise and road traffic noise on people living near wind turbines
Environmental Health Perspectives The Health Effects of 72 Hours of Simulated Wind Turbine Infrasound: A Double-Blind Randomized Crossover Study in Noise-Sensitive, Healthy Adults
The Conversation Wind turbine studies: how to sort the good, the bad, and the ugly
Frontiers in Public Health Journal The Link between Health Complaints and Wind Turbines: Support for the Nocebo Expectations Hypothesis
Columbia Law School Sabin Center for Climate Change Law Rebutting 33 False Claims About Solar, Wind, and Electric Vehicles
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Posted on 23 March 2026 by dana1981
This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections
Despite their polar-opposite politics, California and Texas have achieved the same distinction: They’re both national leaders in producing renewable energy.
Wind and solar today account for 40% of power generation in California and 30% in Texas, well above the national average of 17%.
California and Texas alone account for more than one-third of the U.S.’s solar and wind power generation and over half of its battery storage capacity — shares that continue to grow.
The policy approaches used by California and Texas differ dramatically.
“California has used centralized state control to achieve lots of wind, solar, and storage, while Texas has accomplished the same outcomes via open-access and competitive choice,” said Beth Garza, senior fellow with R Street’s energy and environmental policy team and former director of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas Independent Market Monitor, in an email.
Both state governments have invested in power generation, but while California procured clean energy, “Texas created the Texas Energy Fund to provide low-interest loans and cash completion bonuses for new natural gas-fueled generation,” Garza added.
Rather than halt the growth of renewables, the expansion of natural gas in Texas came at the expense of coal. And all of the growth in electricity generation in both states over the past 15 years has been met by solar panels and wind turbines.
Simple dollars and cents continue to propel the expansion of renewable energy in the two states.
“The economics of solar and energy storage as new resources drive them to the top” in California’s state power purchases, said Brendan Pierpont, Director of Electricity at Energy Innovation, in an email. And in Texas’s free market system, “wind, solar, and energy storage are leading the way because they’re winners economically,” there as well, he added.
The biggest difference is that Texas uses a lot more energy, including more total clean energy, despite having a smaller population than efficiency-minded California.
Power generation by source in California (left) and Texas (right). (Data: Ember. Graphic: Dana Nuccitelli)
The U.S. Energy Information Administration recently forecast that the U.S. will install a record-shattering amount of new power capacity in 2026, with solar panels and battery storage accounting for nearly 80% of those additions. Texas is expected to install 40% of that new solar capacity and 53% of the batteries, with California accounting for a further 6% and 14% of each, respectively.
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Posted on 22 March 2026 by BaerbelW, John Hartz, Doug Bostrom
A listing of 28 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, March 15, 2026 thru Sat, March 21, 2026.
Stories we promoted this week, by category:
Climate Change Impacts (11 articles)
- Summer in March? Unusual Heat Wave Descends on Already Parched Western U.S. "The heat wave could further lower water availability in the region, which has seen staggeringly low levels of snowpack this year." Inside Climate News, Kiley Price, Mar 13, 2026.
- Q&A: How climate change and war threaten Iran’s water supplies "Climate change, war and mismanagement are putting Iran’s water supply under major strain, experts have warned." Carbon Brief, Multiple Authors, Mar 13, 2026.
- World on course to breach 1.5°C before 2030, and other climate and nature news World Economic Forum (WEF) , Tom Crowfoot, Mar 13, 2026.
- ‘Unprecedented in the past 3.6 million years’: How human-made climate change is making days longer "Human activity is responsible for slowing Earth’s spin and making days longer, according to a new study." Euronewsdotcom, Liam Gilliver, Mar 14, 2026.
- Governments Are Failing to Act on Deadly Combination of Super Pollutants and Heat Health Policy Watch, Chetan Bhattacharji, Mar 16, 2026.
- When it rains, it pours with climate change National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS),, Staff, Mar 16, 2026.
- Reduced physical activity due to global heating will lead to rise in health issues, study says "Researchers project that reduced activity could contribute to half a million additional premature deaths annually by 2050" The Guardian, Chloé Farand, Mar 16, 2026.
- How climate change is fueling disease outbreaks "New Stanford-led research traces a direct line from extreme weather to a massive dengue outbreak in Peru. The findings serve as a warning – and the seed of a possible solution." Stanford Report, Rob Jordan, Mar 17, 2026.
- The Weather Is Getting Wilder, and Some See a Dire Signal in the Data "Several of the Earth’s systems are changing faster than predicted as global temperatures rise, scientists say." The New York Times, David Gelles, Mar 19, 2026.
- Carbon dioxide levels are higher than humans have ever experienced. It could be changing our blood chemistry CNN, Laura Paddison, Mar 20, 2026.
- Get Ready for a Year of Chaotic Weather in the US "A massive Western heat wave and a potential El Niño event raise concerns about a long stretch of unpredictable and extreme weather." by Molly Taft, Wired, Mar 19, 2026
Climate Policy and Politics (6 articles)
- Big Tech Says Generative AI Will Save the Planet. It Doesn’t Offer Much Proof "A new report finds that of 154 specific claims about how AI will benefit the climate, just a quarter cited academic research. A third included no evidence at all." Wired, Molly Taft, Feb 18, 2026.
- Australian governments subsidising fossil fuel use by more than $30,000 a minute, analysis finds "Australia Institute data finds state and federal subsidies for coal, gas and oil products increased 10% in past year, growing at a faster pace than funding to NDIS" The Guardian, Adam Morton, Mar 11, 2026.
- A New Era of Data Center Development Is Like a Second Industrial Revolution The rapid rise of artificial intelligence has changed the data center industry and thrust construction of giant server farms into the public eye in a way that’s triggering significant community opposition. Inside Climate News, Arcelia Martin, Mar 14, 2026.
- Lawsuit challenges Trump admin's plan to dismantle country's largest climate research lab "The universities that oversee the National Center for Atmospheric Research allege in the suit that the center is 'collateral damage' in the Trump administration’s ongoing feud with Colorado Gov. Jared Polis." NBC News, Evan Bush, Mar 16, 2026.
- EU plans emergency measures to curb energy costs as Iran war hits markets Reuters, Kate Abnett & Alexander Chituc, Mar 16, 2026.
- Two dozen states, 10 cities sue EPA over repeal of ‘endangerment’ finding central to climate fight AP News, Matthew Daly, Mar 19, 2026.
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Posted on 19 March 2026 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack
Open access notables
The emerging human fingerprint on global extreme fire weather, Turco et al., Science Advances
Extreme fire weather (hot, dry, and windy conditions) has intensified globally, yet formally attributing this trend to anthropogenic climate change remains challenging. Here, we analyze global trends in extreme fire weather days (FWI95d, annual count of days with Fire Weather Index above the 95th percentile) over 1980–2023, using climate model ensembles, observational data, and fingerprint detection techniques. We find that the observed increase in extreme fire weather bears a clear externally forced signal, detectable at 99% confidence above natural variability and attributable to human-induced climate change. This emerging human-induced fingerprint on extreme fire weather highlights a benchmark for climate science and underscores the urgency of integrating these insights into wildfire risk management and adaptation strategies.
An increase in the spatial extent of European floods over the last 70 years, Fang et al., Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Floods regularly cause substantial damage worldwide. Changing flood characteristics, e.g., due to climate change, pose challenges to flood risk management. The spatial extent of floods is an important indicator of potential impacts, as consequences of widespread floods are particularly difficult to mitigate. The highly uneven station distribution in space and time, however, limits the ability to quantify flood characteristics and, in particular, changes in flood extents over large regions. Here, we use observation-driven routed runoff simulations over the last 70 years in Europe from a state-of-the-art hydrological model (the mesoscale Hydrologic Model – mHM) to identify large spatiotemporally connected flood events. Our identified spatiotemporal flood events compare well against an independent flood impact database. We find that flood extents increase by 11.3 % on average across Europe. This increase occurs over most of Europe, except for parts of eastern and southwestern Europe. Over northern Europe, the increase in flood extent is mainly driven by the overall increase in flood magnitude caused by increasing precipitation and snowmelt. In contrast, the increasing trend in flood extent over central Europe can be attributed to an increase in the spatial extent of heavy precipitation. Overall, our study illustrates the opportunities to combine long-term consistent regional runoff simulations with a spatiotemporal flood detection algorithm to identify large-scale trends in key flood characteristics and their drivers. The detected change in flood extent should be considered in risk assessments as it may challenge flood control and water resource management.
Global record-shattering breadbasket droughts emerge from moderately extreme regional events, Li et al., Nature Communications
Simultaneous droughts across multiple maize-producing regions can strike record-shattering portions of the global maize agricultural area, threatening global food security as the system is poorly adapted to large shocks. Yet the future probability of such global droughts remains unknown. Here, we close this gap by analyzing surface soil moisture data from large ensemble climate models under future emission scenarios. During 2026-2099, the chance of at least one such event is 52% (32–80%, range across models) under an intermediate emission scenario and 60% (32–100%) under high emissions, about seven to eleven times higher than expected if there were no long-term trends in soil moisture. These elevated probabilities are primarily driven by long-term drying in Brazil, Europe, and the USA. Interestingly, global record-shattering droughts do not emerge from simultaneous regional record-shattering events, but they mostly occur when several regions simultaneously face moderately extreme droughts relative to the new climate. These results demonstrate a high potential for an upcoming global record-shattering drought in crop-producing areas, an under-recognized risk for food security.
The future of direct air capture in Canada: A systematic scenario-based exploration of barriers and possibilities, Motlaghzadeh & Schweizer, Energy Research & Social Science
Integrated assessment models often overlook the interdependencies of socio-political factors shaping the deployment direct air capture (DAC), leading to projections that may be overly optimistic. To address this gap, we systematically explore the conditions under which DAC may (or not) emerge as a competitive carbon dioxide removal (CDR) option in Canada using the system-theoretical scenario method cross-impact balances (CIB), which accommodates both qualitative and quantitative scenario factors. Based on the literature, we identified 10 key factors affecting DAC deployment such as interjurisdictional regulations, public perception, and clean electricity availability. Their interrelationships were assessed by 27 experts to develop an expert-informed CIB model that identified 15 internally consistent scenarios. Results reveal inter-related constraints that DAC must overcome to become competitive with other CDR methods. The cost of DAC remains a significant barrier; unless technological breakthroughs or economies of scale push costs down, DAC is unlikely to play a major future role. Even with cost improvements, public perception remains key—strong societal opposition, particularly around CO? transport and storage infrastructure—can delay or block projects. Additionally, interjurisdictional policy coherence matters to advance DAC deployment. From a domestic decision-maker perspective, some of these barriers—such as DAC cost—are influenced largely by global deployment and may be outside their control. However, others—such as policy coherence—can be shaped by domestic policy action. By integrating expert knowledge of qualitative factors using systematic scenario analysis, this study highlights how different institutional and socio-political configurations condition the feasibility of large-scale DAC deployment in Canada.
From committed to dismissive: how conspiracy mentality and trust in the democratic (political) system shape climate policy perspectives in Germany, Lütkes et al., Climate Policy
The implementation of new policy measures to mitigate climate often leads to public backlash, undermining their political feasibility, especially in democracies. To understand public opinion and the various positions within the polarized climate policy debate, our study draws on a representative survey conducted in Germany in 2022. We found strong evidence for four distinct groups, which we label as being ‘committed’ to, ‘worried’ about or ‘indifferent’ to climate policy initiatives, or being outright ‘dismissive’ of such policies. Distrust of democratic institutions, processes, politicians and norms as well as a tendency towards a conspiracy mentality play a crucial role in explaining the cleavage between these groups, particularly between the committed and the dismissive. The committed are a rather West German, female, democracy appreciating, urban and educated social group without a conspiracy mentality. In contrast, the dismissive group exhibits a conspiracy mentality and is sceptical of the political elite. This reflects a West German green and an East German right-wing populist milieu. The worried, who are concerned about losing their jobs, increasing social conflict and falling living standards as a result of climate policy, and the largest group of the indifferent are less well explained by the socio-demographic, attitudinal covariates and require further research. The results of the segmentation can be used to design effective climate communication and develop target group-orientated approaches.
From this week's government/NGO section:
U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters in 2025, Adam Smith, Climate Central
Research by Climate Central shows that during 2025, there were 23 individual weather and climate disasters with at least $1 billion in damages. This was the third-highest count of billion-dollar disasters (inflation-adjusted to 2025 dollars) since 1980, trailing only 2023 and 2024, with 28 and 27 events, respectively. The total, direct cost of these 23 events in 2025 was approximately $115.0 billion, with 276 direct and indirect fatalities. The author summarizes the costliest events of 2025 and puts them in the context of historical trends in billion-dollar disasters since 1980. He also explore the influence of our growing exposure, vulnerability, and climate change on the increasing trend of these expensive and deadly disasters.
Toxic Accounts. From Greenwashing to Gaslighting, Nayantara Dutta, Clean Creatives
In a first-of-its-kind research project, the author has decoded the narrative shifts in fossil fuel campaigns between 2020 and 2024, detailing how narrative strategy in oil and gas companies' advertising and public relations campaigns has shifted. The evidence documents how, between 2020 and 2024, oil and gas campaigns shifted from setting climate targets and saying “we’re part of the solution” to emphasizing fossil fuel dependence and convincing people “you can’t live without us.” In parallel, the author saw shareholders follow suit and move from supporting climate action to prioritizing fossil fuel profitability. Oil majors have always been preoccupied with social license, but now, the fossil fuel industry is radicalizing. Companies like BP and Shell, which have a history of greenwashing and made net zero pledges in 2020. Now they are going all in on fossil fuels. They are advertising false solutions like carbon capture and storage, natural gas and biofuels, which increase fossil fuel dependence.
110 articles in 53 journals by 432 contributing authors
Physical science of climate change, effects
Drivers of Marine Heat Waves in the North Pacific Ocean, Cai et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0308.1
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Posted on 18 March 2026 by Guest Author
This video includes personal musings and conclusions of the creator and climate scientist Dr. Adam Levy. It is presented to our readers as an informed perspective. Please see video description for references (if any).
Video description
Jeffrey Epstein was a climate change denier. The Epstein Files have uncovered a number of revelations about how power operates across the globe. And this includes the discussion of climate change - and climate denial - within these exchanges between Jeffrey Epstein and the people he associated with – from scientists to Donald Trump. So what did Jeffrey Epstein have to say when it came to climate change? And what do these files reveal about the links between climate denial and power?
Support ClimateAdam on patreon: https://patreon.com/climateadam
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Posted on 17 March 2026 by John Cook, Guest Author
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article. Authors: John Cook, Senior Research Fellow, Melbourne School of Psychological Sciences, The University of Melbourne; Alex Farnsworth, Senior Research Associate in Meteorology, University of Bristol; Dan Lunt, Professor of Climate Science, University of Bristol, and Dann Mitchell, Professor of Climate Science, University of Bristol
When English author J.R.R. Tolkien crafted his fantasy world Middle-earth, he argued storytellers are essentially “sub-creators” – they build fictional realms with internally consistent laws.
For a world to be truly immersive and believable, readers apply what is known as the “principle of minimal departure”. This assumes anything not explicitly magical, such as a planet’s weather or gravity, must adhere to the laws of the real world.
In this spirit of rigorous worldbuilding, we just published a new study where we merged the disparate disciplines of literary worldbuilding and climate modelling.
We used complex computer programs – the same ones used to forecast Earth’s future warming scenarios – to simulate the climates of famous fantasy settings such as Tolkien’s Middle-earth, the continents of Westeros in the Game of Thrones, and the far-future Earth in The Wheel of Time series. We also built a model for a fictional world developed by one of us.
It’s a seemingly whimsical exercise, but it serves serious purposes.
For starters, it provides new details on fictional worlds beyond what the author shared, “filling the gaps” with science.
More importantly, it offers a new way for us to communicate the fundamental physics of climate science to a broad, general audience. And exploring climate model behaviour under fantastical settings helps our understanding of model physics.
Why the Misty Mountains are so misty
Tolkien, the author of The Lord of the Rings, was known for his extraordinary attention to detail. He meticulously calculated distances, times, and even phenomena such as the direction of the wind at every step along the characters’ journey.
Working from Tolkien’s own detailed maps, we fed Middle-earth’s topography (land height) and bathymetry (ocean depth) into an advanced climate model.
Since Tolkien intended Middle-earth to be our own Earth at a distant point in the past, we assumed its physical parameters – such as the planetary radius, rotation rate, and distance from the Sun – were identical to ours. We then simulated the world’s climate.
The results were a remarkable confirmation of Tolkien’s intuitive worldbuilding.
The model predicted a climate similar to Western Europe and North Africa – unsurprising, given Tolkien’s geographical inspiration.
The highest precipitation fell on and to the west of the Misty Mountains, with a drier “rain-shadow” effect to the east. This effect is caused by prevailing westerly winds forcing moist air to rise and cool over the mountains, condensing water vapour into rain or snow before it reaches the eastern side.
The model’s prediction of extensive forest cover across much of Middle-earth was consistent with Elrond’s claim that in the past, squirrels could travel from the Shire to Dunland without touching the ground.
A simulation of precipitation in Middle-earth, with fictional references to author and journal publication included for fun. Dan Lunt
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Posted on 16 March 2026 by Guest Author
This is a re-post from The Climate Brink by Andrew Dessler
When people debate the cost of fossil fuels versus renewables, the conversation almost always centers on the price at the pump or the cost per kilowatt-hour on your electricity bill. That’s understandable — those are the costs you can see. But they’re not the whole story.
The rest of the story are subsidies. In most discussions, it’s laser-focused on subsidies for renewable energy, not fossil fuels. But fossil fuels get enormous subsidies. Those are deeply hidden, though, spread across government budgets, healthcare systems, and military spending in ways most people can’t connect back to their energy choices.
To the extent that they do get attention, most of it goes to the implicit subsidy for fossil fuels from climate change and air pollution, which economists have valued at trillions of dollars per year.
But there’s another hidden subsidy that few talk about: national security. And right now, as oil prices surge in response to U.S. strikes on Iran, that cost is impossible to ignore.
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Posted on 15 March 2026 by BaerbelW, John Hartz, Doug Bostrom
A listing of 27 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, March 8, 2026 thru Sat, March 14, 2026.
Stories we promoted this week, by category:
Climate Change Impacts (8 articles)
- Dangerous droughts triggered by heatwaves are accelerating at an alarming rate, study shows Heatwaves, drought, wildfire risk and El Niño are compounding to create a dangerous cocktail of climate change. AP/Euronewsdotcom, Seth Borenstein, Mar 9, 2023.
- For frigid East it may be hard to fathom, but the US had its second-warmest winter on record AP News, Seth Borenstein, Mar 9, 2026.
- A Warmer Climate Means Bigger Hail "New attribution research shows how extra heat in the atmosphere can turn thunderstorms into factories for dangerous, softball-size hail."A Warmer Climate Means Bigger Hail Inside Climate News, Bob Berwyn, Mar 9, 2026.
- Parts of Antarctica's ice sheets are retreating much faster than anticipated Earthdotcom, Rodielon Putol, Mar 9, 2026.
- Where Climate Change Is Making Extreme Heat Unbearable "The weather is becoming deadly in a growing number of locations around the world." Bloomber News, Todd Woody & Aaron Clark, Mar 11, 2026.
- How global warming has been getting worse since 2015 New study reveals that the world has warmed faster in the last decade than in any previous decade since records began Geographical, Coby Schlosberg, Mar 12, 2026.
- Review sheds light on how global warming is destabilising the Himalayas Mongabay, Simrin Sirur, Mar 13, 2026.
- Austrian glaciers disintegrating due to climate change, say scientists BBC news, Bethany Bell, Mar 13, 2026.
Climate Policy and Politics (4 articles)
- Is your data center getting a big discount on electricity? That’s redacted. A look at secret agreements in Montana. "A look at secret agreements in Montana." Yale Climate Connections, Karen Kirk, Mar 3, 2026.
- Trump has launched an unprecedented assault on the environment. Where’s the pushback? "Climate deniers expected more resistance to the fossil fuel blitz. But Democrats, billionaires and activists have gone silent" The Guardian, Rei Takver, Mar 4, 2026.
- Nature Report, Killed by Trump, Is Released Independently The New York Times, Catrin Einhorn, Mar 5, 2026.
- Is the FBI Investigating Environmental Activists? "A recent visit by an FBI agent to a climate activist hints at a broadening Trump administration effort to target political opponents."Is the FBI Investigating Environmental Activists? Inside Climate News, Nicholas Kusnetz, Mar 8, 2026.
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Posted on 12 March 2026 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack
Open access notables
Weather Rescue at Sea: Recovering Historical Weather Observations From 19th Century British Naval Ships, Teleti et al., Geoscience Data Journal
Ship logbooks represent a critical source of historical meteorological data, providing valuable observations of barometric pressure, air temperature, sea surface temperature, wind force and direction, and other variables. Substantial quantities of these records are unavailable to climate science as they have not yet been transcribed. We present ‘Weather Rescue at Sea’, a citizen-science project which transcribed millions of weather observations contained in 19th Century UK Royal Navy ship logbooks. We describe the logbook structure and weather observation-taking instructions and discuss significant challenges with the translation of handwritten text into accurate data due to errors arising from ambiguous handwriting, historical terminology, and inconsistent metadata. We present the dataset and explore its spatio-temporal characteristics. The corrected and quality-assured datasets will enhance climate reanalyses and other historical reconstructions of the pre- and early industrial climate by providing more input meteorological data. Furthermore, we highlight emerging tools, such as AI-driven transcription correction, and outline remaining challenges in fully leveraging these historical records to advance climate science.
Climate-Driven Changes in Wildfire Seasonality Across North America, Fan et al., Geophysical Research Letters
Climate change alters the frequency and intensity of wildfires, but its impact on the seasonal patterns of wildfires remains underexplored. Here, we quantify historical changes in wildfire seasonality across different ecoregions in North America and assess how climate change may affect these seasonal patterns. Our study finds that boreal and taiga forests have experienced a clear advance in seasonal wildfire activity, whereas Mediterranean and desert regions show delayed and extended late-season burning. Prairie and humid forest regions exhibit comparatively muted change. Attribution analysis shows that atmospheric dryness is the dominant control, while antecedent temperature, precipitation, and soil moisture indirectly shape wildfire risk through vegetation and fuel continuity at different lag times. These findings provide a basis for interpreting future region-specific changes in wildfire seasonality and emphasize the need for region-specific assessments of future wildfire activity.
Rates of Sea-Level Rise Are Highly Sensitive to Ice Viscosity Parameters in Model Benchmarks, Martin et al., AGU Advances
Glacier flow plays a major role in current and future rates of globally averaged sea-level rise. The viscosity of glacial ice, controlling the rate of flow, decreases as stress increases and is highly sensitive to the value of the stress exponent, n, in the constitutive equation for viscous flow. Glaciologists and climate modelers almost exclusively assume n=3 when modeling ice flow and projecting sea-level rise through forward modeling. However, recent work suggests that n~4 better fits observations, prompting the question: How sensitive are projections of sea-level rise to the value of n? We use an established community ice flow model and standard benchmark experiments designed as an idealized representation of Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica. While initializing an n=3 model to match observations of an n=4 ice sheet is possible, we find that incorrectly assuming n=3 when in fact n=4 dramatically underestimates rates of sea-level rise. The scale of this error grows nonlinearly with the magnitude of the climate forcing, acting to increase projection uncertainties. Additionally, we find that models often account for this stress-dependent rheology mismatch during model initialization in a way that masks this rheological effect in the short term while leaving model outputs vulnerable to larger biases in longer-term projections. Initializations to observations of Pine Island Glacier display similar rheology-mismatch fingerprints to our idealized example.
Beyond denial: climate delay discourses and public opinion on government climate action in the United States, Kulin & Rhodes, Environmental Politics
Discourses of climate delay increasingly permeate debates on climate action, yet studies examining the prevalence of public beliefs aligning with climate delay discourses – and their potential consequences for attitudes toward government climate action – are currently lacking. Past research has identified twelve discourses that acknowledge the existence of climate change yet justify inaction or inadequate responses. We design 48 survey items to measure the prevalence of beliefs consistent with these discourses via a representative web-based survey in the United States (n = 1,580). We then analyze the statistical relationship between these beliefs and public demand for government climate action as well as support for climate policies. Our results show that while beliefs consistent with most climate delay discourses are widespread in the U.S. some are more closely related to policy preferences. Our findings may therefore guide targeted counter-narratives to more effectively increase public demand and support for urgent climate policymaking.
ClimarisQ: What can we learn from playing a game for climate education?, Faranda et al., Geoscience Communication
ClimarisQ is both a web and mobile game developed by the Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace to support climate change communication through interactive decision-making. This paper presents an exploratory evaluation of the game based on a post-play questionnaire completed by 77 users. Respondents rated ClimarisQ positively in terms of usability and scientific credibility. Self-reported outcomes indicate that the game supported reflection on the complexity, trade-offs, and uncertainty of climate-related decision-making, rather than the acquisition of factual knowledge, particularly among users with prior expertise. The respondent group was predominantly composed of educated and climate-aware adults, which limits generalization to other audiences. Beyond the questionnaire, the game has been tested in dozens of facilitated sessions with thousands of non-specialist participants, with consistently positive feedback. These results suggest that ClimarisQ can function as a complementary tool for climate education and outreach, especially when used in facilitated settings that encourage discussion and interpretation.
From this week's government/NGO section:
The Urgent Case Against Data Centers, Food and Water Watch
Data centers and artificial intelligence (AI) are driving higher energy bills, more climate chaos, dwindling water supplies, and much more. Based on the latest research, there are 10 ways data centers leech off communities and the planet for Big Tech’s profit including a single hyperscale data center can consume as much energy as 2 million U.S. households; the thirst for fuel is being met by keeping old coal-fired power plants running and by building new natural gas ones; increased energy demand can raise residential rates, which soared 31 percent from 2020 to 2025 (compared to 4 percent from 2015 to 2020); and by 2028, AI data centers could use as much water as 18.5 million households, just for cooling their servers.
Bubble or Nothing, Advait Arun, Center for Public Enterprise
Should economic conditions in the tech sector sour, the burgeoning artificial intelligence (AI) boom may evaporate—and, with it, the economic activity associated with the boom in data center development. Data centers are an asset with the characteristics of both real estate and infrastructure: Data centers have tenants, chiefly large tech companies, that are undertaking expensive long-term capital investment plays with fast-depreciating assets and minimal cash flow to show for them. A careful review of these characteristics suggest that the sector faces the following salient risks including data center tenants will undertake multiple cycles of intense and increasingly expensive capital expenditure within a single lease term, posing considerable tenant churn risks to data center developers. This asset-liability mismatch between data center developers and their tenants will strain developers’ creditworthiness without guarantees from market-leading tech companies. Circular financing, or “roundabouting,” among so-called hyperscaler tenants—the leading tech companies and AI service providers—create an interlocking liability structure across the sector. These tenants comprise an incredibly large share of the market and are financing each others’ expansion, creating concentration risks for lenders and shareholders.
149 articles in 59 journals by 940 contributing authors
Physical science of climate change, effects
Divergent Mechanisms Drive Multi-Decadal Drought Intensification in South America: A Trend Turning Analysis From 1958 to 2023, Lou et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70242
Quantifying the role of large-scale circulation in North China heatwaves under global warming, Sun et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108907
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Posted on 11 March 2026 by Guest Author
This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Sarella Arkkila
Mixing science and creativity, “Human Nature: Nine Ways to Feel about Our Changing Planet” documents our irrefutable impacts on Earth’s climate system and the dire consequences we now face. But it does so much more than that.
Written by Earth scientist Kate Marvel, “Human Nature” starts from the premise that it’s OK for a scientist who has been trained to be objective to have feelings.
“And believe me,” she writes, “I have feelings.”
If the title is a nod to human impacts on the natural world, it’s also a provocation. Marvel doesn’t believe in human nature, “at least not in the sense of immutable characteristics that make a particular outcome inevitable.”
In other words, because human behaviors aren’t set in stone, the future isn’t set in stone, meaning it’s up to us to shape the future that we want. And that future, while hotter and more dangerous, can be marked by solar panels, green cities, and restored forests.
To organize and make sense of her feelings, and to imagine that different and better future, Marvel opens the door to the often opaque and complex world of climate science through mythology, history, and storytelling. Each chapter approaches climate change through a single emotion, from wonder, anger, and guilt, to pride, hope, and love, through fear, grief, and surprise.
Take hope, for example. “Is there any?” Marvel asks.
The short answer is yes.
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Posted on 10 March 2026 by Sue Bin Park
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Can shadow flicker from wind turbines trigger seizures in people with epilepsy?
The flicker of a wind turbine shadow is far below the minimum frequency required to trigger photosensitive epilepsy.
A wind turbine is said to produce a “shadow flicker” when its rotating blades pass between the sun and an observer, creating a repeating pattern of light and shadow.
Photosensitive epilepsy is triggered at frequencies of 3 Hz or higher, or 3 flashes of light per second. Wind turbines generate flicker frequencies of 0.5 to 1 Hz, well below the known minimum trigger frequency.
One study calculated that a typical three-blade turbine would need to operate at 60 rotations per minute (rpm) to potentially trigger photosensitive epilepsy. Modern turbines operate at maximum speeds of only 15 to 17 rpm.
Research and public health surveys have not established a phenomenon of wind turbine-induced photosensitive seizures.
Go to full rebuttal on Skeptical Science or to the fact brief on Gigafact
This fact brief is responsive to quotes such as this one.
Sources
U.S. Department of Energy Shadow Flicker
Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection Wind Turbine Health Impact Study: Report of Independent Expert Panel
Front Public Health Journal Wind Turbines and Human Health
IEEE Environment Impact Assessment for New Wind Farm Developments in Ukraine
Energy Reports Journal Occupational health hazards and risks in the wind industry
Columbia Law School Sabin Center for Climate Change Law Rebutting 33 False Claims About Solar, Wind, and Electric Vehicles
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