Climate Science Glossary

Term Lookup

Enter a term in the search box to find its definition.

Settings

Use the controls in the far right panel to increase or decrease the number of terms automatically displayed (or to completely turn that feature off).

Term Lookup

Settings


All IPCC definitions taken from Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Annex I, Glossary, pp. 941-954. Cambridge University Press.

Home Arguments Software Resources Comments The Consensus Project Translations About Donate

Twitter Facebook YouTube Pinterest

RSS Posts RSS Comments Email Subscribe


Climate's changed before
It's the sun
It's not bad
There is no consensus
It's cooling
Models are unreliable
Temp record is unreliable
Animals and plants can adapt
It hasn't warmed since 1998
Antarctica is gaining ice
View All Arguments...



Username
Password
Keep me logged in
New? Register here
Forgot your password?

Latest Posts

Archives

Explaining climate change science & rebutting global warming misinformation

Scientific skepticism is healthy. Scientists should always challenge themselves to improve their understanding. Yet this isn't what happens with climate change denial. Skeptics vigorously criticise any evidence that supports man-made global warming and yet embrace any argument, op-ed, blog or study that purports to refute global warming. This website gets skeptical about global warming skepticism. Do their arguments have any scientific basis? What does the peer reviewed scientific literature say?

 


The irreversible emissions of a permafrost ‘tipping point’

Posted on 7 April 2020 by Guest Author

This is a re-post from Carbon Brief by Dr Christina Schädel

Across vast swaths of the northern hemisphere’s higher reaches, frozen ground holds billions of tonnes of carbon. 

As global temperatures rise, this “permafrost” land is at increasing risk of thawing out, potentially releasing its long-held carbon into the atmosphere.

Abrupt permafrost thaw is one of the most frequently discussed “tipping points” that could be crossed in a warming world. However, research suggests that, while this thawing is already underway, it can be slowed with climate change mitigation.

Yet, what is irreversible is the escape of the carbon that has been – and is being – emitted. The carbon released from permafrost goes into the atmosphere and stays there, exacerbating global warming.

In short, what happens in the Arctic does not stay in the Arctic.

Read more...

0 comments


Could the Atlantic Overturning Circulation ‘shut down’?

Posted on 6 April 2020 by Guest Author

This is a re-post from Carbon Brief by Dr. Richard Wood and Dr. Laura Jackson

Generally, we think of climate change as a gradual process: the more greenhouse gases that humans emit, the more the climate will change. But are there any “points of no return” that commit us to irreversible change?

The “Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation”, known as “AMOC”, is one of the major current systems in the world’s oceans and plays a crucial role in regulating climate.

It is driven by a delicate balance of ocean temperatures and salinity, which is at risk from being upset by a warming climate.

The latest research suggests that AMOC is very likely to weaken this century, but a collapse is very unlikely. However, scientists are some way from being able to define exactly how much warming might push AMOC past a tipping point.

Overturning

The figure below shows an illustration of the AMOC. In the North Atlantic, warm water from the subtropics travels northwards near the surface and cold – and, hence, more dense – water is travelling southwards at depth, typically 2–4km below the surface.

In the north, the warm surface water is cooled by the overlying atmosphere, converted to cold, dense water, and sinks to supply the deep, southward branch. Elsewhere, the cold water upwells and is warmed, re-supplying the upper, warm branch and completing the circuit.

Schematic of the AMOC. The red pathways show warmer water nearer the surface, while the purple pathways show colder, more dense water moving at depth. Credit: Met Office 

Read more...

1 comments


2020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #14

Posted on 5 April 2020 by John Hartz

Story of the Week... Editorial of the Week... Toon of the Week... Coming Soon on SkS... Climate Feedback Claim Review... SkS Week in Review... Poster of the Week...

Story of the Week...

North Atlantic's capacity to absorb CO2 overestimated, study suggests

Research into ocean’s plankton likely to lead to negative revision of global climate calculations

Gibraltar Strait

Phytoplankton blooms are visible from space in this 2017 satellite image taken of the Gibraltar strait. Photograph: Suomi/VIIRS and Modis/Nasa

The North Atlantic may be a weaker climate ally than previously believed, according to a study that suggests the ocean’s capacity to absorb carbon dioxide has been overestimated.

A first-ever winter and spring sampling of plankton in the western North Atlantic showed cell sizes were considerably smaller than scientists assumed, which means the carbon they absorb does not sink as deep or as fast, nor does it stay in the depths for as long.

This discovery is likely to force a negative revision of global climate calculations, say the authors of the Nasa-backed study, though it is unclear by how much.

“We have found a misconception. It will definitely impact the model of carbon flows,” said Oregon State University microbiologist Steve Giovannoni. “It will require more than just a small tweak.” 

Oceans' capacity to absorb CO2 overestimated, study suggests by Jonathan Watts, Environment, Guardian, Apr 3, 2020

Click here to access the entire article.

Read more...

0 comments


2020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #14

Posted on 4 April 2020 by John Hartz

A chronological listing of news articles linked to on the Skeptical Science Facebook Page during the past week: Sun, Mar 29 through Sat, Apr 4, 2020

Editor's Choice

Bill McKibben on Solidarity in the Time of Social Distancing

Bill McKibben 

HEATED is a new 6-episode, limited-run podcast series that shows how COVID-19 and the climate crisis cannot be separated. In a series of up-to-the-minute interviews, HEATED newsletter's Emily Atkin connects the dots on how two of the most pressing issues of our time are really one and the same. First up: Bill McKibben, a leader in the climate movement for more than 20 years as a journalist, author, and co-founder of 350.org. 

Bill McKibben on Solidarity in the Time of Social Distancing by Emily Atkin, HEATED/Drilled News, Apr 1, 2020

Click here to access a transcript of the podcast

Read more...

2 comments


YouTube's Climate Denial Problem

Posted on 3 April 2020 by Guest Author

This video was made by zentouro

In January of 2020, AVAAZ released a report investigating YouTube and Climate Misinformation. Let's talk about it.

Read more...

12 comments


Skeptical Science New Research for Week #13, 2020

Posted on 1 April 2020 by doug_bostrom

46 Articles

Physical science of global warming & effects

Global response of evapotranspiration ratio to climate conditions and watershed characteristics in a changing environment

Greenhouse effect: the relative contributions of emission height and total absorption

Observations & observational methods of global warming & effects

Climate change induced a new intermittent regime of convective ventilation that threatens the Black Sea oxygenation status (open access)

Regional differences in global glacier retreat from 1980 to 2015

Long tern trends (1958-2017) in snow cover duration and depth in the Pyrenees

Modeling & simulation of global warming & global warming effects

How could a difference of 0.5°C in global warming modify the mean and extreme climate conditions around Antarctica?

Climate change projections for the Australian monsoon from CMIP6 models

Surface ocean warming around Australia driven by interannual variability and long‐term trends in Southern Hemisphere westerlies

Future changes of summer monsoon characteristics and evaporative demand over Asia in CMIP6 simulations

Interannual-to-multidecadal responses of Antarctic ice shelf-ocean interaction and coastal water masses during the 20th century and the early 21st century to dynamic and thermodynamic forcing

Benchmarking Simulated Precipitation in Earth System Models (open access)

The Recent Decline and Recovery of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall: Relative Roles of External Forcing and Internal Variability

The influence of climate change on low‐level jet characteristics over the South‐Central Plains as simulated by CMIP5 models

Read more...

0 comments


A history of FLICC: the 5 techniques of science denial

Posted on 31 March 2020 by John Cook

In 2007, Mark Hoofnagle suggested on his Science Blog Denialism that denialists across a range of topics such as climate change, evolution, & HIV/AIDS all employed the same rhetorical tactics to sow confusion. The five general tactics were conspiracy, selectivity (cherry-picking), fake experts, impossible expectations (also known as moving goalposts), and general fallacies of logic.

Two years later, Pascal Diethelm and Martin McKee published an article in the scientific journal European Journal of Public Health titled Denialism: what is it and how should scientists respond? They further fleshed out Hoofnagle’s five denialist tactics and argued that we should expose to public scrutiny the tactics of denial, identifying them for what they are. I took this advice to heart and began including the five denialist tactics in my own talks about climate misinformation.

In 2013, the Australian Youth Climate Coalition invited me to give a workshop about climate misinformation at their annual summit. As I prepared my presentation, I mused on whether the five denial techniques could be adapted into a sticky, easy-to-remember acronym. I vividly remember my first attempt: beginning with Fake Experts, Unrealistic Expectations, Cherry Picking… realizing I was going in a problematic direction for a workshop for young participants. I started over and settled on FLICC: Fake experts, Logical fallacies, Impossible expectations, Cherry picking, and Conspiracy theories.

When I led a 2015 collaboration between the University of Queensland and Skeptical Science to develop the free online course Denial101x: Making Sense of Climate Science Denial, we made FLICC the underlying framework of the entire course. An important component of our debunking of the most common myths about climate change was identifying the denial techniques in each myth. A common comment we received from students was how much they appreciated learning about FLICC.

Read more...

13 comments


Scientists share their grief, anger, and hope over climate change

Posted on 30 March 2020 by greenman3610

This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections

This month’s original YCC “This Is Not Cool” video shows how several experienced climate scientists are handling the emotional and personal feelings that many feel in grasping the potential adverse effects of runaway climate change. In the current global context posed by the coronavirus pandemic, there are striking similarities between the COVID-19 disease and risks posed by climate change.

“Knowing what I know about the science and the projections, that puts me into a state of grief,” says climate scientist Jeff Kiehl, a veteran of the National Center for Atmospheric Research now associated with the University of California, Santa Cruz. With a first grandchild now 10 months old, Kiehl points to what he sees as “lost opportunities” to get a jump on climate change and says he fears “loss of a world that we as a species have known since our beginning.”

“I’ve been there, I’ve been depressed about these results many times,” says University of Wisconsin scientist Andrea Dutton. She says that in her presentations to the public, she feels it is important to help audiences fully discuss personal feelings with friends, family, and acquaintances.

“We almost need a team of psychiatrists and therapists to go into a community dealing with climate change to allow people to process all these emotions,” Dutton says. She adds that “we must allow people to emotionally respond to scientists’ information” and “accept reality.” Her prescription: “For me, it’s engaging in solutions. … The future is going to be different” and the public should “not fight that feeling anymore” but rather accept and ask how that future should best be shaped.

Anger is OK and can lead to constructive engagement

Asked by videographer Peter Sinclair if scientists should feel a “sense of anger,” Kiehl says well-channeled anger over climate change risks can be “a good source of energy” and can lead to “some very constructive action” and engagement on climate change issues.

Read more...

3 comments


2020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #13

Posted on 29 March 2020 by John Hartz

Story of the Week... Toon of the Week... Coming Soon on SkS... Climate Feedback Claim Review... SkS Week in Review... Poster of the Week...

Story of the Week...

‘Misinformation kills’: The link between coronavirus conspiracies and climate denial

 Misinformation Kills

Grist / Rob Kim / Stringer / CSA Images 

Scientific warnings are being ignored, misinformation is spreading, and prominent Republicans have said that addressing the problem is either too expensive or too difficult. No, this isn’t climate change: This is the new reality of the novel coronavirus, the deadly pandemic sweeping the planet.

Over the past several weeks, as global cases of COVID-19 have climbed to over 500,000, conspiracy theories and fake news have also been on the rise. On Monday a man died after ingesting chloroquine phosphate, an ingredient in an anti-malarial drug that President Trump had heralded as a coronavirus cure.

Meanwhile, the website Snopes has been forced to scale back its fact-checking work in response to the overwhelming number of fake stories around the pandemic. (Some disturbing highlights: claims that the coronavirus was released by world governments to distract from a planet-ending doomsday asteroid, or that breathing hot air from a hair dryer can kill the virus.)

‘Misinformation kills’: The link between coronavirus conspiracies and climate denial by Shannon Osaka, Grist, Mar 28, 2020 

Read more...

0 comments


2020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #13

Posted on 28 March 2020 by John Hartz

A chronological listing of news articles linked to on the Skeptical Science Facebook Page during the past week, i.e., Sun, Mar 22, 2020 through Sat, Mar 28, 2020

Editor's Choice

The Nature of Crisis

Save Lives Stay Home

Photograph by Andrew Caballero-Reynolds / Getty 

Subscribers to The Climate Crisis newsletter received this piece in their in-boxes. Sign up to receive future installments.

An idea beloved of the technorati is that we are actually living not on the earth we seem to inhabit but in a simulation. Elon Musk has said that it’s “most likely” the case, and Neil deGrasse Tyson has set the odds at fifty-fifty. If so, we’ve clearly reached the point where whoever is supervising the action has handed the game over to a bored supervillain who is wildly pressing buttons: Pandemics! Locusts! Firestorms!

The name of this newsletter is The Climate Crisis, but for the moment the emphasis is going to be on the last of those words. We need to understand how crises work, and, since I’ve been thinking about them for many years, I have a few thoughts to offer. This week’s reflection has to do with time, which is a variable we seriously underappreciate. We’re used to political debates that go on forever—when I was a high-school debater, in 1978, our topic for the year was “That the federal government should establish a comprehensive program to regulate the health care system in the United States.” We imagine that, if we don’t solve a political problem now, we’ll get around to it eventually. Meanwhile, we’ll chip away at it—delaying a solution extends suffering along the way, but it doesn’t necessarily make a problem ultimately harder to solve. Certain kinds of problems don’t work that way, however. Physical problems—climate change and the coronavirus being the pertinent examples—are all about time. And what’s striking to me is how similar these two examples are.

The Nature of Crisis by Bill McKibben Annals of a Warming Planet, New Yorker Magazine, Mar 26, 2020

Read more...

0 comments


Aggressive action to address climate change could save the world $145 trillion

Posted on 26 March 2020 by dana1981

This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections

A respected research group, Project Drawdown, finds that deploying solutions consistent with meeting the Paris climate targets would cost tens of trillions of dollars globally. But crucially, those outlays would also yield long-term savings many times larger than the up-front costs.

The new 2020 Drawdown Review includes economic estimates of the capital costs to deploy each solution, net lifetime operation costs, and lifetime profits from the sale of products produced by the agricultural solutions. The key conclusion is that while the upfront costs are substantial – around $25 trillion globally – the resulting savings and profits are five to six times larger.

Project Drawdown is a nonprofit organization that evaluates climate solutions nations could deploy to reach the point where greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere begin to decline (the threshold of carbon “drawdown”). Achieving drawdown will require phasing out the use of fossil fuels that add carbon and strengthening the natural sinks that absorb carbon. In 2017, the group published the New York Times bestselling book Drawdown, which described the 100 most substantive solutions to global warming based on a comprehensive scientific review by the project’s research team.

The new Drawdown Review considers two potential pathways. Scenario 1 envisions how climate solutions could be deployed to meet the Paris target of staying below 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) hotter than pre-industrial temperatures, in which the point of carbon drawdown is reached in the mid-2060s. Scenario 2 is more ambitious, keeping global temperatures below the aspirational Paris target of 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F) by achieving carbon drawdown in the mid-2040s. In the more aggressive Scenario 2, global economic savings are $145 trillion, with an additional $29 trillion in profits generated from the agricultural sector – the latter on its own offsetting the initial $28 trillion capital costs. Both the Scenario 1 and 2 savings estimates are calculated over the life times of the solutions.

Read more...

3 comments


Skeptical Science New Research for Week #12, 2020

Posted on 25 March 2020 by doug_bostrom

Tamper with The System?

Well, we already are.

But there's a difference between accidentally trickling sand into a precision gearbox versus formulating a plan to alter it on the fly with improvements in mind. One action is more or less innocently unscrupulous, the other amenable to earning an easy conscience. Low & Buck offer a critical analysis of "RRI" or "Responsible Research and Innovation" in connection with climate change in their paper The practice of responsible research and innovation in “climate engineering.”  We've an amply bitter track record of hastily deployed technological products that swiftly became entrenched and very difficult to remove despite obvious problems. RRI seeks to draw from that history to help produce a more rational means of progress. Here it's in connection with avoiding multiplying our problems by thoughtlessly deploying technology while seeking to mitigate an earlier unplanned technological mess of our own creation. The abstract:

Sunlight reflection and carbon removal proposals for “climate engineering” (CE) confront governance challenges that many emerging technologies face: their futures are uncertain, and by the time one can discern their shape or impacts, vested interests may block regulation, and publics are often left out of decision‐making about them. In response to these challenges, “responsible research and innovation” (RRI) has emerged as a framework to critique and correct for technocratic governance of emerging technologies, and CE has emerged as a prime case of where it can be helpfully applied. However, a critical lens is rarely applied to RRI itself. In this review, we first survey how RRI thinking has already been applied to both carbon removal and sunlight reflection methods for climate intervention. We examine how RRI is employed in four types of activities: Assessment processes and reports, principles and protocols for research governance, critical mappings of research, and deliberative and futuring engagements. Drawing upon this review, we identify tensions in RRI practice, including whether RRI forms or informs choices, the positionalities of RRI practitioners, and ways in which RRI activities enable or disable particular climate interventions. Finally, we recommend that RRI should situate CE within the long arc of sociotechnical proposals for addressing climate change, more actively connect interrogations of the knowledge economy with reparative engagements, include local or actor‐specific contexts, design authoritative assessments grounded in RRI, and go beyond treating critique and engagement as “de facto” governance.

The juggling act of addressing risks and hazards while pursuing important, compelling benefits is nicely illustrated by the beguiling article Halving warming with stratospheric aerosol geoengineering moderates policy-relevant climate hazards, by Irvine & Keith. From the abstract:

Read more...

1 comments


Emissions: Coronavirus & Climate Change

Posted on 24 March 2020 by Guest Author

Stopping coronavirus means lowering our impact on the natural world. But being forced to mitigate climate change because of a devastating virus is no cause for celebration. Combatting climate change means the same as combatting coronavirus: compassion.

Support ClimateAdam on patreon: http://patreon.com/climateadam

Read more...

0 comments


The pros and cons of planting trees to address global warming

Posted on 23 March 2020 by Guest Author

This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Bruce Lieberman

It seems like such a simple, straightforward, empowering idea: plant trees – a lot of trees – all over the world, and watch the planet’s temperature fall.

Who doesn’t love a tree or two, even far more – the right tree in the right place?

Along with the refreshing shade they provide on hot days, trees of course also store carbon, and they’ll suck it right out of our fragile atmosphere as they grow. Who could argue with more trees, more forests – more shade! – in a warming world? Nary a soul, one suspects, whether of conventional “tree hugger” category or rabid climate science detractor.

Earlier this year, the one-trillion tree campaign was big news at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. Salesforce founder Businessman Marc Benioff announced at the meeting that his company will “support and mobilize the conservation and restoration of 100 million trees over the next decade.”

Back in Washington, D.C., President Trump and Republican lawmakers said they too support the international campaign – although Arkansas Republican Rep. Bruce Westerman came under fire for proposing a “Trillion Trees Act” that would pair a commitment to planting trees with a plan to increase logging on public lands. Numerous other Republican representatives are endorsing the trees effort.

Cautions against just randomly digging and planting

Over the past few weeks, chatter has picked up that planting trees is only one piece of the puzzle when it comes to combating climate change. Trees are a good thing, but:

Read more...

14 comments


2020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #12

Posted on 22 March 2020 by John Hartz

Story of the Week... Toon of the Week... Climate Feedback Article Review... Coming Soon on SkS... Climate Feedback Claim Reviews... SkS Week in Review... Poster of the Week...

Story of the Week...

In Just 10 Years, Warming Has Increased the Odds of Disasters

The likelihood of extreme events today is being underestimated, new research suggests

Flooding in New Delhi India

A motorcyclist tries to cross a waterlogged stretch amid slow moving traffic near AIIMS, on March 14, 2020 in New Delhi, India. Credit: Biplov Bhuyan Getty Images 

Small levels of global warming can increase the likelihood of extreme events, new research warns. That’s prompting scientists to question how accurately disasters in the recent past can be used to predict extreme events today.

study published Wednesday in Science Advances suggests that some research attributing climate change to individual disasters has underestimated the probability of certain extremes in the last decade. That’s especially true of unprecedented hot and wet events.

That’s because researchers were basing their analyses on a historical study period extending only up to the year 2005, said author Noah Diffenbaugh, a climate scientist at Stanford University. As it turns out, the warming that’s occurred since then has had a big impact on global extreme events. 

In Just 10 Years, Warming Has Increased the Odds of Disasters by Chelsea Harvey, E&E News/Scientific American, Mar 20, 2020

Read more...

0 comments


2020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #12

Posted on 21 March 2020 by John Hartz

A chronological listing of news articles linked to on the Skeptical Science Facebook Page during the past week, i.e., Sun, Mar 15, 2020 through Sat, Mar 21, 2020

Editor's Pick

Now Isn’t the Time to Forget About Our Climate Change Efforts

 Gardening in Brooklyn per Vogue Magazine

Tasha Tilberg, Lindsey Wixson, and Liu Wen photographed for Vogue’s September 2019 issue at the Eagle Street Rooftop Garden in Brooklyn.Photographed by Tierney Gearon, Vogue, September 2019 

The absentminded Instagram scroll looks a lot different these days. Vacation pics and shameless selfies have been replaced with glimpses of how we’re living through the coronavirus outbreak and its necessary quarantines: Health care officials are sharing their tips and expertise; fitness instructors are posting living-room workouts; chefs are sharing easy home-cooked meals; and others are posting about how we can all help those who are most at risk.

It’s a reminder of how social media keeps us connected and informed no matter where we are in the world, a fact we take for granted with every double tap. But it’s mostly a testament to the power of coming together around a crisis and taking collective action for the greater global good. In theory, practicing social distancingwashing our hands more thoroughly, and working from home can slow down this disease and eventually, hopefully, eliminate it. We’re all doing our small, if sometimes inconvenient, part, and already we’re beginning to see how our individual actions contribute to something much, much bigger than us.

For those involved in climate-change efforts, you might see a few through lines between our response to the coronavirus and our response (or lack thereof) to the effects of climate change. Climate scientists and activists have preached for decades that our individual choices and behaviors matter, whether you’re composting, ditching single-use plastic, buying secondhand clothes, or doing the precise opposite of all of those things—wasting food, relying on plastic water bottles and containers, shopping extravagantly.

Now Isn’t the Time to Forget About Our Climate Change Efforts by Emily Farra, Vogue Magazine, Mar 17, 2020

Click here to access the entire article.

Read more...

4 comments


Is becoming vegan the best thing people can do to reduce Greenhouse Gas emissions?

Posted on 19 March 2020 by Justine_Wickman

This is the new Advanced Rebuttal to the myth 'veganism is the best way to reduce carbon emissions' with the short URL sks.to/veganism 

Animal agriculture and GHG emissions

It has been estimated that 11-15% of human caused greenhouse gas emissions are a result of animal agriculture and livestock globally (FAO 2013.; Climate watch 2018). These gases include methane from enteric fermentation of cattle, nitrous oxide mainly from manure and carbon dioxide. The levels of each that are contributed vary depending on geographical location and the source of meat. Animal agriculture also uses vast amounts of other resources like land, fertilizer, feed and water, for example 8% of global water usage is taken up by livestock (Schlink 2010).  

Figure 1: Global human caused GHG emissions divided by sector as estimated by the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions 2013

A film by Kip Anderson; ‘Cowspiracy: The Sustainability Secret (2014)’ rallied for veganism as being the best way to reduce GHG emissions with claims that it is the ‘solution to climate change, to stop eating animals’ and ‘the only way to sustainably and ethically live on this planet with seven billion other people is to live an entirely plant-based vegan diet.’ This message was backed up by unreliable sources, for example quoting work by Goodland (2009) that animal agriculture is responsible for 51% of GHG emissions, when it has been estimated to be 11-15% (FAO 2013., Climate watch 2018). Although veganism does have the potential to reduce GHG emissions associated with diet, it is important to consider other sectors that are also part of the problem.

Read more...

12 comments


Skeptical Science New Research for Week #11, 2020

Posted on 18 March 2020 by doug_bostrom

46 Articles

Physical science of global warming & effects

Global pattern of short‐term concurrent hot and dry extremes and its relationship to large‐scale climate indices

Opposite spatial variability of climate change‐induced surface temperature trends due to soil and atmospheric moisture in tropical/subtropical dry and wet land regions

Observations & observational methods of global warming & effects

Observed emergence of the climate change signal: from the familiar to the unknown

Strong changes in englacial temperatures despite insignificant changes in ice thickness at Dôme du Goûter glacier (Mont Blanc area) (open access)

Analysis of climate extremes indices over northeast Brazil from 1961 to 2014

Analyzing precipitation and temperature trends of Kanha and Satpura Tiger Reserve, Central India

aModeling, simulation & analysis of global warming & global warming effects

The Role of Climate Sensitivity in Upper‐Tail Sea Level Rise Projections

Arctic sea ice loss as a potential trigger for Central Pacific El Niño events

Impact of the North Atlantic Warming Hole on Sensible Weather

Twenty-first century ocean forcing of the Greenland ice sheet for modelling of sea level contribution (open access)

Effective Radiative forcing from emissions of reactive gases and aerosols – a multimodel comparison (open access)

Contribution of mean climate to hot temperature extremes for present and future climates

Sea level rise and estuarine tidal dynamics: A review

Projected regional responses of precipitation extremes and their joint probabilistic behaviors to climate change in the upper and middle reaches of Huaihe River Basin, China

Changes in climate extremes over Bangladesh at 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 4 °C of global warming with high-resolution regional climate modeling

Assessment of climate change impact over California using dynamical downscaling with a bias correction technique: method validation and analyses of summertime results (open access)

Climate change impact to Mackenzie river Basin projected by a regional climate model

Climate change projections for the Worldwide Bioclimatic Classification System in the Iberian Peninsula until 2070

Read more...

0 comments


UK’s CO2 emissions have fallen 29% over the past decade

Posted on 17 March 2020 by Guest Author

This is a re-post from Carbon Brief by Simon Evans

The UK’s CO2 emissions fell by 2.9% in 2019, according to Carbon Brief analysis. This brings the total reduction to 29% over the past decade since 2010, even as the economy grew by a fifth.

Another 29% reduction in coal use last year was the driving force behind the decline in UK emissions in 2019, with oil and gas use largely unchanged. Carbon emissions from coal have fallen by 80% over the past decade, while those from gas are down 20% and oil by just 6%.

The 2.9% fall in 2019 marks a seventh consecutive year of carbon cuts for the UK, the longest series on record. It also means UK carbon emissions in 2019 fell to levels last seen in 1888.

The analysis comes as the UK – and the world – enter what needs to be a “decade of action” in the 2020s, if global goals to limit rising temperatures are to be met. Ahead of the COP26 UN climate summit this November, countries are expected to submit enhanced pledges to tackle emissions.

But UK government projections show the country will miss its legally binding carbon targets later this decade. To meet the UK’s carbon budgets, CO2 emissions would need to fall by another 31% by 2030, whereas government projections expect just a 10% cut, based on current policies.

The Committee on Climate Change (CCC), which is the UK government’s official climate advisory body, has also said the UK’s targets over the next decade are “likely” to be insufficient, given the increased goal of reaching net-zero emissions by 2050.

Annual decline

Carbon Brief’s provisional estimates suggest that the UK’s CO2 emissions fell by another 2.9% in 2019, once again driven primarily by falling coal use, as shown in the table, below.

Annual change in UK CO2 emissions in 2019 and over the past decade

Change in CO2CoalOilGasTotal
In 2019 -27.9% -0.9% -0.1% -2.9%
Past decade -79.8% -6.0% -20.0% -29.0%

The bulk of the reduction in coal use last year came from the power sector, which accounted for 93% of the overall fall in demand for the fuel in 2019. The remainder was from industry.

Read more...

5 comments


Fallacy Taxonomy and Icons available via Wikimedia

Posted on 16 March 2020 by BaerbelW

Many of you will already be familiar with the FLICC graphic which shows the 5 main characterstics of (climate) science denial, namely fake experts, logical fallacies, impossible expectations, cherry picking and conspiracy theories. It was first introduced when our MOOC "Denial101x - Making sense of climate science denial" launched in April 2015.

FLICC

In the five (!) years since, John Cook and colleagues have been busy refining and enlarging this fallacy taxonomy as explained in a series of three new videos for Denial101x. Here is the first of them:

Part 2

Read more...

0 comments



The Consensus Project Website

THE ESCALATOR

(free to republish)


© Copyright 2020 John Cook
Home | Links | Translations | About Us | Privacy | Contact Us