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All IPCC definitions taken from Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Annex I, Glossary, pp. 941-954. Cambridge University Press.

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Climate Hustle

2016 SkS Weekly Digest #20

Posted on 15 May 2016 by John Hartz

SkS Highlights... El Niño to La Niña... Toon of the Week... Quote of the Week... He Said What?... SkS in the News... SkS Spotlights... Coming Soon on SkS... Poster of the Week... SkS Week in Review... 97 Hours of Consensus...

SkS Highlights

On May 6, the National Center for Science Education (NCSE) announced the winners of its Friend of the Planet award for 2016: Katharine Hayhoe of Texas Tech University; Dana Nuccitelli and John P. Abraham, authors of the Climate Consensus – the 97% column hosted on the Guardian newspaper; and Skeptical Science, a website devoted to explaining climate change science and rebutting global warming misinformation created and maintained by John Cook of the University of Queensland.

"All of the Friends of the Planet for 2016 shine as climate communicators, in different but complementary ways," NCSE Executive Director Ann Reid explained. "Katharine Hayhoe excels at building connections between science and society and Dana Nuccitelli and John Abraham have consistently provided timely commentary on the latest developments. And Skeptical Science is simply unrivaled as a vast, up-to-date, and in-depth source of accurate and accessible information on climate change science."

Friend of Darwin and Friend of the Planet awards for 2016, National Center for Science Education (NCSE) news release, May 9, 2016 

El Niño to La Niña

There’s a 75% chance that La Niña will be in place by the fall, meaning sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific at the equator will be more than 0.5°C below average. It’s possible the transition from El Niño to La Niña will be quick, with forecasters slightly favoring La Niña developing this summer. What’s behind this reasonably confident forecast

May 2016 El Niño/La Niña update: Switcheroo! by Emily Becker, Climate.gov (NOAA), May 11, 2016

Toon of the Week

 2016 Toon 20

Quote of the Week 

"I think what we're seeing thus far is quite unusual in terms of warm winter and springtemperatures that have contributed to ice retreat and lack of ice growth during winter," said Julienne Stroeve, a senior research scientist at the NSIDC, in an email to Mashable.

The fracturing of sea ice is especially pronounced in the Beaufort Sea, north of Alaska, where satellite images show the ice rapidly breaking up during the past two weeks. 

"....This is important because what it's doing is isolating the multiyear ice floes and having them surrounded by open water that can enhance melt of  those thicker floes. So that is something to watch this summer, whether or not those floes survive will be important to the September minima," Stroeve said.

Fractures seen in rapidly melting Arctic sea ice, and it's only May by Andrew Freedman, Mashable, May 12, 2016

He Said What?

Donald Trump’s new energy adviser calls himself a climate skeptic, but he may urge the billionaire celebrity to address climbing temperatures through a hands-off government approach.

Rep. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) said yesterday he’s preparing at least two white papers on energy policy for the presumptive Republican nominee, who is scheduled to address an oil and gas conference in North Dakota later this month.

Cramer, who has expressed support for a small carbon tax to replace the Clean Power Plan, said he may offer Trump advice on climate change that challenges the candidate’s assertions about it being a hoax promoted by Democrats.

“He can do all that if he wants,” Cramer said of Trump’s climate position in a lengthy interview. “But my advice would be, while I’m a skeptic, as well, he is a product of political populism, and political populism believes that there needs [to be] some addressing of climate change.”

Meet Donald Trump’s New Energy Adviser by Evan Lehmann, ClimateWire/Scientific American, May 13, 2016

SkS in the News

John Cook's article, The things people ask about the scientific consensus on climate change, originally posted on The Conversation UK, was reposted on the Reporting Climate Science blog, the IFL Science blog, and the Phys.org blog.

John Cook and SkS are profiled in:

John Abraham and Dana Nuccitelli are profiled in: 

SkS Spotlights: The Climate Group

The Climate Group is an award-winning, international non-profit with offices in Greater China, North America, India and Europe. Our goal is to help leaders transition to a prosperous low carbon economy, driven by the rapid scale-up of clean and renewable energy.

We work in partnership with the world’s most influential business, state, regional, finance and civil society leaders. For over a decade we have worked to demonstrate the economic and business case for the low carbon economy, and create the political conditions necessary for a strong global framework that addresses climate risks and maximizes climate opportunities. 

The global climate deal which has been struck at the Paris COP represents a new beginning: the chance to accelerate our low carbon future. We are working with governments, businesses and investors to implement the Paris Agreement, holding them to account where appropriate through reporting mechanisms, and ensuring we bend the emissions curve downwards to secure a thriving, clean economy for all. 

Coming Soon on SkS

  • Explainer: 10 ways ‘negative emissions’ could slow climate change (Carbon Brief Staff)
  • Ocean Oxygen – another climate shoe dropping (howardlee)
  • What Sir David King gets wrong about carbon pricing (CCL)
  • Scientists compare climate change impacts at 1.5C and 2C (Roz Pidcock)
  • Lord Krebs: scientists must challenge poor media reporting on climate change (John Krebs)
  • 2016 SkS Weekly News Roundup #21 (John Hartz)
  • 2016 SkS Weekly Digest #21 (John Hartz)

Poster of the Week

 2016 Poster 20

Hat tip to I Heart Climate Scientists

SkS Week in Review 

97 Hours of Consensus: Anders Levermann

97 Hours: Anders Levermann 

 

Anders Levermann's bio page & Quote source

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Comments

Comments 1 to 5:

  1. From NOAA:

    La Niña is favored to develop during the Northern Hemisphere summer 2016, with about a 75% chance of La Nina during the fall and winter 2016-17.

    Is this likely to have an impact on the Arctic icecap's Minima?

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  2. The concept of Hysteresis means long felt multi-year ice melt remains the reality. The kids will read about it in the akashic record called NSIDC as if it were reality tv!

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  3. bozza @2, studies with models show that under current conditions, complete removal of sea ice will not prevent its reformation in the next year.  While sea ice models have problems, the rapid recovery to trend levels of sea ice after 2007 and particularly 2012 show that in this case the models are correct.  Hysteresis is, therefore, not currently a factor in Arctic sea ice, and probably will not be until we reach near permanent absent of Arctic sea ice, even in winter (if then).

    In this sea ice contrasts with land ice, where there is substantial evidence we have reached a point of hysteresis for parts of the West Antartic Ice Shelf, and possibly for Greenland.

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  4. Tom, 

     Of course I trust your words and will read your links but I just find it impossible to believe long term structural integrity is not at stake.

     Of course, I shall read... (not that I like reading much- obviously!)..! 

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  5. (.. as a get-out-of-jail-free clause can I appeal to the idea that science doesn't even understand what 'current conditons' are?)

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