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Comments 2401 to 2450:
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JonJC at 16:54 PM on 15 February 2023Climategate CRU emails suggest conspiracy
Judith Curry recently did an interview on Jordan Peterson's podcast - and she still leans very heavily on Climategate. She made some points which I've not seen covered here - about emails where climate researchers were bullying editors into silencing critics - it would be good to have some of that rebutted here (just because Peterson's reach is huge).
If you're not across it I'll suffer through listening to it again and will provide a summary - please let me know if you'd like me to do this. -
John Mason at 20:47 PM on 14 February 2023Temp record is unreliable
Please note: the basic version of this rebuttal has been updated on Feb 14, 2023 and now includes an "at a glance“ section at the top. To learn more about these updates and how you can help with evaluating their effectiveness, please check out the accompanying blog post @
https://sks.to/at-a-glanceThanks - the Skeptical Science Team.
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John Mason at 20:44 PM on 14 February 2023Hockey stick is broken
Please note: the basic version of this rebuttal has been updated on Feb 14, 2023 and now includes an "at a glance“ section at the top. To learn more about these updates and how you can help with evaluating their effectiveness, please check out the accompanying blog post @
https://sks.to/at-a-glanceThanks - the Skeptical Science Team.
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John Mason at 20:44 PM on 14 February 2023It's the sun
Please note: the basic version of this rebuttal has been updated on Feb 14, 2023 and now includes an "at a glance“ section at the top. To learn more about these updates and how you can help with evaluating their effectiveness, please check out the accompanying blog post @
https://sks.to/at-a-glanceThanks - the Skeptical Science Team.
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John Mason at 20:43 PM on 14 February 20232nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
Please note: the basic version of this rebuttal has been updated on Feb 14, 2023 and now includes an "at a glance“ section at the top. To learn more about these updates and how you can help with evaluating their effectiveness, please check out the accompanying blog post @
https://sks.to/at-a-glanceThanks - the Skeptical Science Team.
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John Mason at 20:41 PM on 14 February 2023Antarctica is gaining ice
Please note: the basic version of this rebuttal has been updated on Feb 14, 2023 and now includes an "at a glance“ section at the top. To learn more about these updates and how you can help with evaluating their effectiveness, please check out the accompanying blog post @
https://sks.to/at-a-glanceThanks - the Skeptical Science Team.
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John Mason at 20:40 PM on 14 February 2023CO2 lags temperature
Please note: the basic version of this rebuttal has been updated on Feb 14, 2023 and now includes an "at a glance“ section at the top. To learn more about these updates and how you can help with evaluating their effectiveness, please check out the accompanying blog post @
https://sks.to/at-a-glanceThanks - the Skeptical Science Team.
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John Mason at 20:39 PM on 14 February 2023Climategate CRU emails suggest conspiracy
Please note: the basic version of this rebuttal has been updated on Feb 14, 2023 and now includes an "at a glance“ section at the top. To learn more about these updates and how you can help with evaluating their effectiveness, please check out the accompanying blog post @
https://sks.to/at-a-glanceThanks - the Skeptical Science Team.
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John Mason at 20:37 PM on 14 February 2023Climate's changed before
Please note: the basic version of this rebuttal has been updated on Feb 14, 2023 and now includes an "at a glance“ section at the top. To learn more about these updates and how you can help with evaluating their effectiveness, please check out the accompanying blog post @
https://sks.to/at-a-glanceThanks - the Skeptical Science Team.
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John Mason at 20:35 PM on 14 February 2023Ice age predicted in the 70s
Please note: the basic version of this rebuttal has been updated on Feb 14, 2023 and now includes an "at a glance“ section at the top. To learn more about these updates and how you can help with evaluating their effectiveness, please check out the accompanying blog post @
https://sks.to/at-a-glanceThanks - the Skeptical Science Team.
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John Mason at 20:32 PM on 14 February 2023It hasn't warmed since 1998
Please note: the basic version of this rebuttal has been updated on Feb 14, 2023 and now includes an "at a glance“ section at the top. To learn more about these updates and how you can help with evaluating their effectiveness, please check out the accompanying blog post @ https://sks.to/at-a-glance
Thanks - the Skeptical Science Team.
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One Planet Only Forever at 03:10 AM on 14 February 20232023 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #6
ubrew12,
Well presented point about the fundamental, and glaringly obvious, harmfully misleading nature of the proponents of fossil fuel use.
I would go one step further, to be more general. Harmfully misleading promotion of fossil fuels is part of the larger developed collective of harmful misleaders regarding so much more.
There are other harmful impacts of many of the things 'harmful misleaders' want people to 'fear not being able to continue to believe, desire and enjoy'. In almost every case there is a less harmful, but more expensive, alternative that does not require 'petroleum'. In every case it is possible to enjoy life with less of the 'promoted consumption'. And in many cases it is possible to enjoy life without the 'developed desires'.
The reality is that almost everything 'unnecessary but desired' today could be obtained less harmfully at a: higher cost, lower level of convenience, or reduced perception of superiority. That reality contradicts the developed interests of a person who has allowed themselves to be fooled and indoctrinated into 'desiring' understandably harmful beliefs and related actions.
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Eclectic at 23:24 PM on 13 February 2023Global warming: a battle for evangelical Christian hearts and minds
EddieEvans @55,
there's a large number of Dr Curry's own articles (among others) to be seen on her blog "Climate Etc" (at judithcurry.com) . But you may find it rather tiresome to wade through a good sample of them. Her modus operandi is to be vague & misleading to the naive/layman reader, by throwing up clouds of maybe & could-be & might-be.
At first glance you might feel that she is being a cautious scientist, in keeping her mind open to possible alternative explanations for modern global warming. But as you look at her track record and persistent line of do-nothingism "until we are really truly exactly sure of the precise amount of warming which is anthropogenic if any" . . . then you see that her AGW policy is in lock-step with the Oil Lobby. Basically she is a propagandist who seriously distorts mainstream climate science, in her own unique way. Plus a smattering of grievance about her persecution by those dreadful mainstream scientists (i.e. the 99%) .
# Thank you for the 2019 article you link to. A short but interesting article, authored by an economist Guy Sorman [age 78]. Sorman seems to have genuine virtues personally . . . though being an Old School free-marketeer (the Market is the solution to all problems).
However, Sorman has re-hashed much of Dr Curry's usual blend of half-truths and misleading information ~ great grist for his "conservative" readers of that City Journal for which he is a contributing editor ( I gather ). But very bad science.
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EddieEvans at 22:17 PM on 13 February 2023Global warming: a battle for evangelical Christian hearts and minds
One Planet Only Forever at 05:42 AM on 13 February 2023
It's the sunI should have read the Curry comments this morning before posting comments. Your post hits the mark.
"People who want to prolong harmful misunderstandings demand that presentations of harmful misunderstanding must be 'protected freedom of thought and expression'
Those same people declare that it is unacceptable to ridicule people who present understandably ridiculous beliefs. They have a ridiculous belief about community-building. They believe that community-building requires acceptance of harmful people who want to promote and prolong harmful misunderstanding. Ridiculing people who persist in resisting learning to change their mind about harmful misunderstandings is deemed to be 'harmfully divisive'." -
EddieEvans at 21:46 PM on 13 February 2023Global warming: a battle for evangelical Christian hearts and minds
I received an email from an old acquaintance mired in conspiracy theories. An article, Climate Science’s Myth-Busterboosting, by Judith Curry.
Would anyone share a remark about “findings”? I see that SKS has much about her past denialism.
Wikipedia has a nice description of Curry, I know. I'm just curious if there's something recent, more revealing, if that's possible.
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Eclectic at 17:35 PM on 13 February 2023It's the sun
Jim Hunt @1314 ,
Judith Curry's denizens are, as you well know, much uninclined to engage with you in any true sense. They tend to operate by deflections and faux misunderstandings. (Commenters Joshua, Willard, and David Appell are very much the exceptions ~ but they appear rarely.)
The Curry-ites are somewhat more upper class than the WUWT-ites, on the whole. But you may have noticed that many of them have a sort of Schroedinger Feline brain ~ you cannot be certain whether inside the cranium is something which is brain-dead or brain-alive. Or a brain which is both at the same time, or is rapidly alternating. This might explain how so many of them know that you [Jim Hunt] are correct in what you have (so often) said to them in the past . . . and yet they usually seem ignorant of that information (and are not wishing to know it).
BTW Jim, with my newest VPN version, I do not get to access your website GreatWhiteCon.info ~ stuff comes up like "cannot access this site" or "this site does not support https". Presumably the fault is mine as a computer ingenu . . . but would you mind checking your https status ? Thanks. [No need to reply]
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One Planet Only Forever at 05:42 AM on 13 February 2023It's the sun
Jim Hunt @1314,
The reference to "Brave New World" is noted. But it can be understood to be the "Same Harmful Old World".
There is currently a resurgence of people demanding the promotion and protection of harmful misunderstandings that excuse understandably harmful developed aspects of the Status Quo. Many people dislike learning that excuses of harm done are misunderstandings. They resist learning evidence-based evaluations done in pursuit of limiting harm done and developing sustainable improvements.
What is seen to be happening regarding Twitter and other media, and clearly dominant in politics, can be well explained as follows:- People who want to prolong harmful misunderstandings demand that presentations of harmful misunderstanding must be 'protected freedom of thought and expression'
- Those same people declare that it is unacceptable to ridicule people who present understandably ridiculous beliefs. They have a ridiculous belief about community-building. They believe that community-building requires acceptance of harmful people who want to promote and prolong harmful misunderstanding. Ridiculing people who persist in resisting learning to change their mind about harmful misunderstandings is deemed to be 'harmfully divisive'.
The future of humanity requires this cyclical resurgence of harmful selfishness to fail. Ultimately what is required is social transformation that limits the harm of attempted resurgence of harmful selfishness. But, unfortunately, as the climate science case proves, the current system is substantially compromised by harmful selfishness. It allows a lot of harm to be done by the promotion and prolonging of harmful misunderstandings. And climate science is not the only matter where more harm is being done due to the ‘ridiculous freedom of harmful selfish people to believe and do whatever they desire and resist being restricted and corrected by Others’.
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Jim Hunt at 00:42 AM on 13 February 2023It's the sun
As blind chance etc. would have it I currently find myself engaging with Judith Curry's denizens under her article about the recent joint venture with Jordan Peterson.
This is presumably the cause of some or all of the "it's the sun, stupid!" nonsense currently being promulgated in the Twittodenialosphere?
As a consequence my Arctic alter ego felt compelled to bring the following NASA article to the attention of one such Dunning-Kruger sufferer:
https://climate.nasa.gov/ask-nasa-climate/2949/why-milankovitch-orbital-cycles-cant-explain-earths-current-warming/
Elon's new thought police helpfully suggested that I might want to reconsider my attempted violation of Twitter's community guidelines:
The allegedly "offensive language" was merely echoing that of the DK sufferer in question.
What a "Brave New World" we currently inhabit!
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ubrew12 at 21:16 PM on 12 February 20232023 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #6
"Our world would be unrecognizable if the products we rely on just disappeared" According to Energy Transfer, sunlight cannot cause skin cancer because it makes plants grow. Put another way, if "Petroleum used in plastics" is "apples", and "Petroleum used for energy" is "moldy cheese", then I refuse to stop eating moldy cheese, because apples are good for me.
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MA Rodger at 19:14 PM on 12 February 2023It's the sun
Philippe Chantreau @1312,
While Curry is evidently referring to the ACRIM gap of 1989-91 when she talks of "a gap in the satellites measuring the sun's output that occurred at the time of the Challenger shuttle disaster" of 1986, mainly because there is no other "gap". But her reference to AR6.6 'Short-lived climate forcers' as giving discussion of some "great uncertainty in the amount of solar forcing in the late 20th century" that "arises" from the ACRIM gap is deluded nonsense. AR6.6 concerns aerosol forcing and thus the solar aspects of this and nowhere considers any gaps in TSI data.
As you say, the ACRIM gap was an issue of long ago although I think it remains an issue when used in historical proxy TSI reconstructions and whether the Maunder Minimum TSI was 1Wm^-2 or 2Wm^-2 lower than today. But this is not apparently what was Curry attempting to describe in her deluded rant. (The graphics below are from an Andy May discussion of TSI dated 2018.)
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Philippe Chantreau at 09:10 AM on 12 February 2023It's the sun
MAR, is this an allusion to the ACRIM gap or the old ACRIM vs PMOD debate? If it is, both of these horses have already been flogged to death as far as I recall.
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Eclectic at 07:56 AM on 12 February 2023It's the sun
MA Rodger @1310 , thank you for extracting some classic Curry.
I particularly liked :- "... huge amounts of [solar] variability ... a lot of issues related to UV and stratosphere and cosmic rays and magnetic fields and ... things that really aren't being factored in [to models] ..."
A quote so typical of Dr Curry. A bit of smoke & mirrors, vague handwaving, followed by more sciencey-sounding vagueness, plus the magic word Uncertainties uttered thrice. And at this point, every Denialist is nodding in agreement, with all critical abilities set in the OFF position. Her style is unique.
If Dr Curry were pressed on some of that nonsense, she would walk it back ~ by retreatiing into more vagueness. She outclasses Dr Peterson in that way ~ he at least can look slightly embarrassed when he is caught out in some of his own nonsenses (and he does, when caught, walk his mistakes back . . . temporarily).
Dr Curry's style of discourse reminds me somewhat of another speaker, but she has never actually suggested fixing solar problems by injecting bleach into the sun.
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MA Rodger at 02:10 AM on 12 February 2023It's the sun
The link given @1305 leads me to a bunch of YouTube adverts but if you specify a time with the link, the Curry/Peterson nonsense appears. Thus:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Q2YHGIlUDk&t=60s
Below the video there is a box that can be expanded with a 'show more' tab and that shows a list of a couple of dozen parts to the video (called Chapters) and one of these does mention things solar (which was what panhuag @1306 was asking about) 'The Challenger explosion, how the sun affects climate'. This provides the following from Curry:-"Once you get into the sun, it's even crazier. The IPCC has pretty-much dismissed the role of the sun in the last 150 years but the interesting AR6.6 finally acknowledged the great uncertainty in the amount of solar forcing in the late 20th century and this arises from ... a gap in the satellites measuring the sun's output that occurred at the time of the Challenger shuttle disaster... So one solar sensor was running out and they were supposed to launch another one but all the launchers were put off for a number of years until they sorted out... (the launchers). So there's a so-called gap which depending on what was happening in that gap, you can tune the solar variability to high variability or low variability. So all the climate models are being run with low solar variability forcing.
For the first time in AR6.2 (2.2.1), the observational chapter acknowledges this issue, that there are huge amounts of variability.
And this doesn't even factor in the solar indirect effects.... It's not just the heat from the sun. There's a lot of issues related to UV and stratosphere and cosmic rays and magnetic fields and all these otehr things that really aren't being factored in. They're at the forefront of research but they're certainly not factored into the climate models so there are so many uncertainties out there that affect certainly the projections of what might happen in the 21st century but also our interpretation of what's been going on with the climate for the last 100 years and exactly what's been causing what.A quick look at AR6.2.2.1 shows Curry is doing particularly well ast spouting nonsense here.
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EddieEvans at 01:19 AM on 12 February 20232023 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #5
The Hamburg Report - - It's in a social change pipeline, and it's not pretty.
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EddieEvans at 23:52 PM on 11 February 20232023 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #5
The Hamburg Outlook seems to agree with us, and the drive for technological fixes to humanity's stupidity will not stop what's in the pipeline. These seven social drivers remain stuck in ignorance, superstition, and greed.
"Seven social drivers from the Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook 2023 - -
The recent Hamburg outlook sounds grim enough for my take on the prospects for future generations. I just don't see a wake-up call any time soon.
climate-related regulation
climate protests and social movements
climate litigation
fossil-fuel divestment
knowledge production
Corporate responses and consumption patterns continue to undermine the pathways to decarbonization. media remains ambivalent insofar as its dynamics. are volatile, both supporting and undermining decarbonization."I'll read the full pdf over the weekend. I think I need the reality check.
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One Planet Only Forever at 08:06 AM on 11 February 20232023 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #5
EddieEvans,
Thanks for the words of encouragement in your comment @11.
I plan to continue to be 'anonymous' on the internet. As an anonymous participant I have no copyright on the thoughts I share. I am still learning from others and I am happy to have others adopt aspects of what I share as part of their learning.
I agree with your current understanding that significant social change is required to limit the harm done by misleading pursuers of personal benefit. Without that social change harm will continue to be done by pursuers of status and personal benefit. A 'technological transition' that appears to address the climate change problem could end up being like putting new wall-paper on the walls of a dwelling that is continuing to rot, be burned-out and be pest-infested, but the walls will look nicer - for a little while.
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Bob Loblaw at 08:04 AM on 11 February 2023It's the sun
Yes, the links in the "Recent Comments" page still do the wrong page number. On the list to fix.
This gets you to your comment properly:
https://skepticalscience.com/argument.php?a=18&p=53#140262
This is the borked link on the Recent Comments page.
https://skepticalscience.com/argument.php?a=18&p=27#140265
The trick is knowing whether 2x27 will be 53 or 54... Whichever one you guess, it will probably be the other one.
I did not watch the video. I just saw the names in the text description below it. That was enough, until panhuang tells us more. (I won't hold my breath.)
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Eclectic at 05:43 AM on 11 February 2023It's the sun
Moderator @1305 [note: 3 additional scroll & clicks were required to reach Page 53 of Comments in this thread]
Thank you Bob, it likely my VPN "blocks" the video. But the VPN is not worth circumventing, if that video is by Curry and/or Peterson. As you say, both Dr Curry and Dr Peterson have poor track records.
(Personally, I have never seen either of them put forward an argument which invalidates the scientific evidence found in IPCC reports. Panhuang @1305 has a great deal of explaining to do. )
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Eclectic at 21:03 PM on 10 February 2023It's the sun
Panhuang @1305,
my computer says your video is no longer available. Error at my end or at your end ?
Either way, please have the courtesy to explain the video contents.
If the IPCC is wrong on global warming, then the World needs to know! And there might be a reporter's Pulitzer Prize in it for you . . . and just possibly your share in a Nobel Prize for Physics.
On the other hand, you may be misunderstanding the basics. Likely?
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Rob Honeycutt at 12:39 PM on 10 February 2023It's the sun
panhuang... How about you explain what you think the IPCC is claiming rather than sending people off on a wild goose chase?
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panhuang at 12:20 PM on 10 February 2023It's the sun
What about the admission by 6th IPCC assessment about uncertainty in solar related data?
Look at
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Q2YHGIlUDk
Moderator Response:[BL] Three points:
- The web software here does not automatically create links. You can do this when posting a comment by selecting the "insert" tab, selecting the text you want to use for the link, and clicking on the icon that looks like a chain link. Add the URL in the dialog box.
- The Comments Policy specifically states "Any link or picture should be accompanied by text summarizing both the content of the link or picture, and showing how it is relevant to the topic of discussion. Failure to do both of these things will result in the comment being considered off topic." As Rob Honeycutt states, just providing a link without much context is just sending people off on a wild goose chase, and is considered bad form.
- The link does work for me, but the first two names that I see are Judtih Curry, and Jordan Peterson. Neither are particularly reliable. Details on Judith Curry are available here and here. She has a reputation for beating the Uncertainty Drum as if it was a rented mule. Jordan Peterson has no background in any sort of atmospheric science, let alone climate science. You can read more about him here.
If you wish to continue this line of thought, you are going to have to provide some sort of coherent discussion and argument.
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One Planet Only Forever at 09:00 AM on 10 February 20232023 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #5
People who prefer a more 'story-like' presentation may like the following more than the analytical detail presented in "Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook 2023. The plausibility of a 1.5°C limit to global warming – Social drivers and physical processes; Cluster of Excellence Climate, Climatic Change, and Society (CLICCS).":
NPR Book Review: Greta Thunberg's 'The Climate Book' urges world to keep climate justice out front
Keeping Climate Justice out front will increase the chances that Climate Actions taken are due to the required 'Social Transitions' referred to in the "Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook 2023...". Without the social transition and related climate justice any actions taken are unlikely to be sustainble improvements of the future of humanity regardless of how positively the perceived positives of the actions are promoted.
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Eclectic at 08:23 AM on 10 February 2023The escalator rises again
Bob Loblaw @12 ,
please do not go over to WUWT to point out their problems. There is already a (very) small number of scientific commenters in the WUWT threads, but they are continually shouted down by all the loons, goons, and crackpots (including the intelligent Willis Eschenbach and Rud Istvan).
The scientific commenters there are clearly getting some pleasure from tweaking the Denialist noses, yet they do not (and cannot) bring enlightenment to the denizens of WUWT. But their comments are worth reading in themselves ~ and I enjoy reading them, and I manage to stomach (or skip over) the comments by the crazies who oppose them.
There is a Schadenfreude to be had in viewing the statements by the crazies ~ it is challenging & interesting to recognize & unravel their logical errors and motivated reasonings. That gets tiresome rather quickly, though.
# Thank you Bob, for your statistics criticism. My own education stopped at Statistics-101 and has rusted since ~ so I cannot do much more than apply common sense to what I see at WUWT. And it is always impressive how *determinedly* the WUWT-ites refuse to use common sense in their thinking.
[Excuse repeated scathing of WUWT ~ but WUWT deserves no less.]
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bobhisey at 05:34 AM on 10 February 2023Clean energy permitting reform needed to boost economy, protect climate and burn less coal
The recently available NASA satellite of infra-red transmission of earth's radiation clearly shows that no energy is escaping the earth in the wavelength range where CO2 can effectively absorb it. (The 14-16micron range). Thus there is no energy left in this range for more CO2 to absorb!
So the whole "decarbonization" effort is an exercise in futility! All the models seen are thus fatally flawed and should be junked on sight.
Green energy is a massive misallocation of resources. More should be spent to find the true cause of global warming.
See NASA Technical Memorandum 103957, Appendices E and F.
For full discussion, see "Carbon Dioxide-Not Guilty" on Kindle for 99c. Or email me at bobhiseyatcomcast.net and I will send a free pdf of the booklet.
I challenge anyone to refute the basic physics of my position. And welcome it!
Moderator Response:[BL] You have made this baseless claim previously on another thread, and have failed to respond to the criticisms there.Failure to engage in discussion when people respond is not acceptable. Please read the Comments Policy.
We are not interested in buying your book or engaging in an email discussion.
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Bob Loblaw at 01:44 AM on 10 February 2023The escalator rises again
I don't have the stomach to go over to WUWT, but the author of this blog post has also reposted it on his own blog, and here have been some interesting comments over there.
Willis Eschenbach, of WUWT fame, has commented, and posted a graphic of what he calls "an actual structural breakpoint analysis" for the period 1969 to now. He draws attention to the steps, claiming "this is not done by 'cherry picking' but by mathematical analysis, this brings up the interesting question … what is causing the jumps?".
Spolier alert: the "jumps" are an artifact of an inappropriate statistical analysis, and Willis has no explanation of any physical process to explain them, other than a brief hand-waving about El Nino events. But let's entertain the possibility for a bit.
I pointed out in the comments over at ATTP's that the month-to-month change in the anomalies (i.e., this month's anomaly minus last month's) shows absolutely nothing to suggest that the anomaly goes through any sort of slow change (as suggested by the linear segments) interspersed with sudden jumps. If you take the entire BEST record, this is what you see for the month-to-month change in the anomalies:
The month-to-month change in anomaly looks pretty much like random noise to me. If Willis' hypothesis of meaningful "jumps" existed, I'd expect to see periods of fairly steady (i.e., unchanging) anomalies, with periodic short episodes of large changes representing "jumps" No such structures appear in the data.
I also took the information from the graphic Willis posted of his "structural breakpoint analysis" and added the six line segments he created to a graph of the 1969-present BEST anomalies. This is a reproduction of that information from Willis' graph:
The point I made over at ATTP's is that Willis six-segment linear fit to the data provides virtually no additional statistical explanation of the overall data. The equation on the above graphic is the basic linear fit for the entire data set. Note that the r2 value is 0.81. The regression standard error is 0.145 C - indicating the remaining "unexplained" variation in the residuals from the regression.
How much better does Willis do with six line segments (and five breakpoints)? Not much. The accumulated standard error from the six regression lines is 0.133C - just over 0.01C better than the simple fit.
If we look at some statistics for the six segments, we get:
End Year Standard error P-value R^2 1976.8 0.131 0.07 0.0353 1986.9 0.141 0.764 0.0008 1994.7 0.141 0.25 0.0143 2001.8 0.137 0.376 0.0095 2014.9 0.119 0.005 0.0504 2022.9 0.137 0.126 0.0001 The P-values do not account for auto-correlation (there is lots), so take them with a grain of salt. But only one of Willis' line segments looks remotely significant, and the r2 values are very low.
The fact is that nearly all of the statistical explanation in Willis' analysis is in the jumps, but there is no reason (looking at the month-to-month changes) to expect this analysis to come up with anything that is not just a misrepresentation of the noise.
A basic linear regression does almost as well, with only two parameters (slope and intercept). In Willis' analysis, he needs 17 parameters: six lines (slope and intercept = 12 parameters) and five break-point years. This is not particularly parsimonious.
Splitting a gradual increase in the data into a bunch of "jumps" that are a function of noise may be entertaining, but it's not particularly scientific.
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Eclectic at 13:12 PM on 9 February 2023The escalator rises again
The (Monckton) thread comments count is now up to 566. The monthly Moncktonian review of the New Pause has always been a very "popular" thread for the denizens at WUWT. This one, with over 500, is probably well above its usual level ~ but I am not going to bother to check back through the past 12 months of records there.
(A) As usual, Monckton turns a blind eye to Ocean Heat Content
(B) The long term UAH data trend continues to rise.
(C) The Monckton thread commenters have many wrangles about what constitutes statistical significance +/- confidence levels +/- Dr Pat Frank's peculiar ideas of Growth of Uncertainties. What many of them seem to have forgotten, is that this is not a case of statistical analysis of an abstract set of figures, but an analysis of physical events where the underlying causations are known.
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MA Rodger at 05:59 AM on 9 February 2023The escalator rises again
I think Monckton was using RSS TLTv3.3 for previous rants flat warming trends. He now switches to UAH TLTv6.0 although the wobbly nature of the TLT record is the cause of this nonsense (not the slow rate of TLT warming) and which record you use thrugh recent years (since 2005) doesn't make a significant difference. I think using RSS TLTv4.0 would today only provide a 100-month of flat trend.
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One Planet Only Forever at 04:32 AM on 9 February 20232023 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #5
Everyone wanting to better understand the required ‘transition’ should read the Report that is discussed in the Story of the Week. That would help develop the awareness and understanding of the required transition to most effectively limit harm done and develop sustainable improvements.
A key point is that ‘Social Transition (socioeconomic-political systemic change)’ is required. Technological transition without that systemic change is likely to be the most harmful pathway (the BAU case). ‘Climate problem solutions’ developed by the BAU socioeconomic-political system would be harmful in many ways. The harmfulness of the technological transition can be severe if the focus is on the perceived climate change harm done by energy use. Other harmful impacts of energy use could be ignored or excused.
Reduced energy consumption, limited to ‘necessary consumption’, with a transition to less harmful energy systems, all harms considered (not just climate impacts), is the least harmful ‘solution pathway’. What has developed is significant ‘unnecessary energy use’. And a lot of harm reduction, not just climate impact harm, can be done almost immediately, and could have happened 30 years ago, without technological improvements. That significant, but essential, ‘social transition’ is required to limit the harm done to the future generations.
The ‘resistance to reduced consumption and responsibly learning to be less harmful’ by many wealthier people, and people who aspire to be like them, through the past 30 years has created the current situation. The situation is now more harmful than it needed to be. Indeed, because the current situation is more harmful, the ‘responsible transition to limit the overshoot of 1.5 C impacts and bring impacts back below 1.5 C’ could involve changes that some current day people would see as ‘draconian reductions of their developed perceptions of success and limits on their opportunity for future perceptions of benefit’ (for some people, any external limitation of their freedom to believe and do as they please is Draconian).
A related point is that the harm of 1.0 C of warming is significantly unacceptable. Arguing that 2.0 C warming will not produce significant risk of unstoppable feedback is an example of the problem of ‘promoting the positives to the detriment of consideration of the negatives’. It needs to be understood that an overshoot of the 1.5 C target is a serious problem that requires rapid correction to limit the harm done. It can be argued that future generations will make the required correction. But that argument is a harmful misleading systemic BAU ‘kicking the can down the road’ cycle-of-harm argument. It is understandably important to break the systemic cycle of ‘excusing harm done because of the opportunity for benefiting from being more harmful’.
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Rob Honeycutt at 01:55 AM on 9 February 20232023 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #5
Eddie and Slum... Are you both aware that the 2°C limit is at least partially predicated on the fact that was how warm the Eemian interglacial got? There are reasonable assumptions that under 2°C the climate system would not set off feedbacks that send us toward far higher temps. There are also reasonable assumptions that the actions that are taking place can put us on a path to keep the earth at or below 2°C.
The challenge before us (humanity) is truly massive. Yelling that the ship isn't turning fast enough doesn't change its direction. Real energy solutions do. Positive support for those solutions does. Barring the use of private jets does vitually nothing. Putting a price on carbon so that flying in those jets comes in line with the damages they impose, along with all other FF uses, does.
The technical solutions for successfully transitioning off of FF's are already here. They're continually being improved upon. Spreading rhetoric that the game is already lost is doing the bidding of the FF's industry, because when people believe all is lost they give up trying. And that's exactly what the FF's industry wants.
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EddieEvans at 00:29 AM on 9 February 20232023 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #5
Sorry, but even "ground all airplanes, set a date for outlawing the use of private fossil fuel vehicles, eliminate industrial animal agriculture, place a moratorium on the manufacture of cement, and diminish all forms of international trade that require any form of physical transport."
The rich and powerful will continue to march on paving over earth until they too bottom out. I'm watching CO2 ppm climb and people are arguing over bedroom ethics.
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EddieEvans at 00:20 AM on 9 February 20232023 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #5
"So we need Draconian rather than Transitioning solutions in order to get out of trouble. Maybe someone can think up a few less Robespierre than mine."
I was there quite a while ago, long before I finally focused on the fossil fuel industry's deception, and then "took a deep dive" into climate and science. I reached draconian language on ecology as a critical science when answering the question, "Does biodiversity matter." Malthus may have been wrong about his philosophy in general, but he got the "geometrical growth right," as Darwin would see growth as a key to the struggle for life. I know that we typically use "exponential growth" these days. I see humanity making a big thud rather than smoothly sliding into a deranged future.
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slumgullionridge at 23:44 PM on 8 February 20232023 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #5
Rob Honeycutt @13 ...I should report that perhaps no one else on this site, save self, are suggesting a Draconian solution, but serious conversations are taking place across the globe around this topic. Jared Diamond and others have pointed out that civilizations have collapsed for not doing what they clearly knew needed doing to avoid catastrophe. Dithering is a human weakness well understood by the wise, but the wise are seldom in charge. Transitioning would be nice, it's "scientific", but is usually met by the resistance of the masses, who winch at the idea that something other than their Lord God will save them. Then, of course, there are always the Lordless whose motives rely on global conquest, who can't be bothered with climate mitigation when such a prize as the entire planet looms in their vision.
Already, the global ice is disappearing. That tipping point has been crossed. Transitioning will not remediate this loss because transitioning has already failed. We can't get back the species loss or speed up the AMOC, undo the acidification of the oceans which have already wiped out significant volumes of primary production, etc. So we need Draconian rather than Transitioning solutions in order to get out of trouble. Maybe someone can think up a few that are less Robespierre than mine.
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Rob Honeycutt at 12:53 PM on 8 February 20232023 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #5
slumgullionridge @12... Paragraph1: Robespierre would like a word with you.
Remaining aragraphs: No one is suggesting ending use of FF use before alternatives are in place. Hence the oft-used term "transition" from FF use.
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slumgullionridge at 12:22 PM on 8 February 20232023 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #5
Well, I'm new here and I don't understand many of the "arguments" made by "some" of the contributors. There has never been a time in history when the wealthy have ever "rescued" the "proletariat". At the same time, an attack on the weathy (check: Marxist, especially Soviet or 20th Century Chinese history) didn't benefit the "poor". So it seems to me that any effort to escape the conditions leading to an uninhabitable planet might need to be made through mutual suffering, everyone will have to take their lumps.
Some suggestions: ground all airplanes, set a date for outlawing the use of private fossil fuel vehicles, eliminate industrial animal agriculture, place a moratorium on the manufacture of cement, and diminish all forms of international trade that require any form of physical transport.
That will cause all to suffer according to their own particular level of discomfort. The burden will be borne by everyone according to the "lifeboat principle" which burdens, yet saves everyone "on board".
If I understand the science correctly, cutting emissions along with its collateral injury to the environment, the above actions are enough to reverse climate change, not just mitigate/adapt to it. We could then expect the ice to return, the Amazon and other jungles to reforest, the oceans' pH to rise, many extinctions to slow down, and the human population explosion to shift into reverse. Localism will be the central operating principle of this effort, as it was before the age of Mercantilism (cir 1,500) and the advent of Capitalism (1776). The historical evidence shows that humanity entered this quandary at the dawn of the Industrial Revolution which is why, I suspect, we now label this the "Anthropogenic"?
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prove we are smart at 11:07 AM on 8 February 2023Clean energy permitting reform needed to boost economy, protect climate and burn less coal
Here in my Australia, a country argueably one of the best for solar power generation, a somewhat similar situation exists.theconversation.com/a-clean-energy-grid-means-10-000km-of-new-transmission-lines-they-can-only-be-built-with-community-backing-187438.
I have always thought one of the keys to making unanimous the decisions to close our fossil fuel power generating plants, ( Well not for the political parties fossil fuel corporate overloads), is to guarantee full re-employment for the displaced workers. In a world of promises betrayed and bullshit COPS, this "survey" too, will be buried till before the next election cycle, www.cleanenergycouncil.org.au/news/australian-energy-employment-report-the-key-to-unlocking-renewable-workforce-potential
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EddieEvans at 20:24 PM on 7 February 20232023 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #5
One Planet Only Forever
Wow! Great comment and I'm glad that I brought it up. On Amazon's page, a couple of reviews stand out; it would be helpful if your comments were shared there. I'll attach them to my blog for kicks. We must remind people that humanity generally carries intergenerational liabilities, deadly liabilities to life, and now intergenerational.
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Eclectic at 14:29 PM on 7 February 2023The escalator rises again
at WUWT : "The New Pause lengthens again: 101 months ..."
At my time of writing, that WUWT thread has 462 comments (in roughly 3 days). Much of it is frothing-at-the-mouth stuff, including some also having total denial of any climate effect of CO2.
The WUWT author uses only the UAH satellite-derived temperatures of the middle/upper troposphere. And uses a magic wand on the data.
Jim Hunt at #6 (above) touches on the hydrological cycle. Which is getting uncomfortably close to the Great Unmentionable at WUWT blogsite. Which is the continued rise of the elephantine Ocean Heat Content. The OHC rise knocks the author's [Mr Monckton's] claims into a cocked hat. But it is never mentioned on Monckton's regular monthly "New Pause Lengthens" article. Is such mention normally deleted by the WUWT moderators ~ or is the monthly Monckton bunfight so engrossing that the participants never lift their eyes to see the forest itself?
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nigelj at 06:12 AM on 7 February 2023The escalator rises again
"The New Pause lengthens again: 101 months and counting …"
This astounds me. Have these denialists nothing better to do? Haven't they noticed a decades long repeating pattern of pauses of various sizes such that the temperature trend is step like? Havent they figured out by now that is how the warming trend progresses? Haven't they studied the obvious reasons it would be like this, such as the influence of solar cycles, etc,etc?
Are they really that lacking in thought? Or perhaps its more of an activity that just makes them feel good and gives them comfort by throwing mud at perceived enemies! Or perhaps its just wanting to protect vested interests for as long as possible. Or are they just cranks? Probably WUWT is an unholy alliance of all these types of personalities and more.
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One Planet Only Forever at 04:09 AM on 7 February 20232023 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #5
EddieEvans,
I think the simplest way to express the fundamental problem is the popularity of the belief in the 'Glory of Freedom of everyone to believe and do whatever they please/desire'.
Transitioning to a society governed/limited by the pursuit of learning to be less harmful and more helpful to Others is the 'eternal' challenge. And it is a very challenging challenge.
There is likely no lasting future for humanity on this amazing planet if that socioeconomic-political transition is not successfully achieved globally, the sooner the better.
The Report "Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook 2023. The plausibility of a 1.5°C limit to global warming – Social drivers and physical processes; Cluster of Excellence Climate, Climatic Change, and Society (CLICCS)." is a helpful presentation of understanding focused on the need for 'systemic transition' to limit harm done.
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One Planet Only Forever at 03:52 AM on 7 February 20232023 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #5
EddieEvans @8,
The link to the finds of the term "Corruption" in A Perfect Moral Storm is informative. But I would recommend that people should read the full book (I read it years ago). The main concern is "Moral Corruption". And that type of corruption occurs because of the temptation to focus on 'personal positives (benefits)' and evade learning about harm done (the negatives). That moral corruption is easier to tempt people into when the 'personal benefits are perceived to be significant (due to promotion of the positives)' and the harm done happens to people who have little ability to 'get back at the people harming them' (note that moral corruption is even easier to develop when the harm is done to non-human life).
Indeed inter-generational harm done to other humans, and the related moral corruption, will be the hardest 'harm done to humans' to limit. But the 'physically remote' harm done to current day Others by morally corrupted regional populations and their leadership is also a very hard thing to limit the harm of. And, of course, when evidence of harm done is involved, the moral corruption of 'doubting that the harm is real or is a serious concern' can be very popular via 'simplistically questioning the science (especially when paired with promotion of the positives of the harmful beliefs and actions)' in an attempt to delay people learning about the the harm being done.
You may be interested in reviewing the comments I have posted earlier on SkS regarding Stephen Gardiner's book. Search SkS comments for 'Gardiner'.
The first comment I made on SkS regarding Gardiner was in April 2019, "Comment 7 on the SkS OP Protecting oil companies instead of the climate-vulnerable is elitist" . That comment also points to an enlightening, and still very relevant, 2012 SkS posting by Andy Skuce. And the comment string includes my early attempts to present the key points made by Gardiner.
