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Climate Hustle

New research, May 7-13, 2018

Posted on 18 May 2018 by Ari Jokimäki

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

Climate change

Temperature, precipitation, wind

Comparing daily temperature averaging methods: the role of surface and atmosphere variables in determining spatial and seasonal variability

Dynamical analysis of extreme precipitation in the US northeast based on large-scale meteorological patterns

Projected change in characteristics of near surface temperature inversions for southeast Australia

Consequences of 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels for temperature and precipitation changes over Central Africa

Unidirectional trends in annual and seasonal climate and extremes in Egypt

An asymmetric rainfall response to ENSO in East Asia

Mixed precipitation occurrences over southern Québec, Canada, under warmer climate conditions using a regional climate model

Extreme events

Estimation of the compound hazard severity of tropical cyclones over coastal China during 1949–2011 with copula function

The unique “Regional East Gale with Blowing Snow” natural disaster in Jeminay County, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China

Post-disaster social recovery: disaster governance lessons learnt from Tropical Cyclone Yasi

Spatio-temporal quantitative links between climatic extremes and population flows: a case study in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia

An analysis of the prevalence of heat waves in the United States between 1948 and 2015

"Results confirmed strong increase in the prevalence of heat waves between the mid-1970s and dataset end (2015), and that increase was preceded by mild decrease since dataset beginning (1948). Results were unclear whether the prevalence of nighttime or simultaneous daytime-nighttime heat waves increased the most, but were clear that increases were largest in the summer."

Climate Change and Drought: From Past to Future

Economic impacts of storm surge and the cost-benefit analysis of a coastal spine as the surge mitigation strategy in Houston-Galveston area in the USA

Forcings and feedbacks

The Impact of Stratospheric Ozone Feedbacks on Climate Sensitivity Estimates

Regional Climate Sensitivity‐ and Historical‐Based Projections to 2100

Reproducing Long‐Range Correlations in Global Mean Temperatures in Simple Energy Balance Models

A Revisit of Global Dimming and Brightening Based on the Sunshine Duration

Tropospheric jet response to Antarctic ozone depletion: An update with Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) models

Contrails and their impact on shortwave radiation and photovoltaic power production – a regional model study (open access)

Cryosphere

Ocean as the main driver of Antarctic ice sheet retreat during the Holocene

"Here, we present a new Holocene δ18Odiatom record from Prydz Bay, East Antarctica, also suggesting an increase in glacial ice discharge since ~4500 years before present (~4.5 kyr BP) as previously observed in Antarctic Peninsula and Adélie Land. Similar results from three different regions around Antarctica thus suggest common driving mechanisms. Combining marine and ice core records along with new transient accelerated simulations from the IPSL-CM5A-LR climate model, we rule out changes in air temperatures during the last ~4.5 kyr as the main driver of enhanced glacial ice discharge. Conversely, our simulations evidence the potential for significant warmer subsurface waters in the Southern Ocean during the last 6 kyr in response to enhanced summer insolation south of 60°S and enhanced upwelling of Circumpolar Deep Water towards the Antarctic shelf. We conclude that ice front and basal melting may have played a dominant role in glacial discharge during the Late Holocene."

Cryosphere: a kingdom of anomalies and diversity (open access)

Variable Basal Melt Rates of Antarctic Peninsula Ice Shelves, 1994–2016

Export of Strongly Diluted Greenland Meltwater From a Major Glacial Fjord

Improved simulation of the present-day Greenland firn layer (1960–2016) (open access)

Globally scalable alpine snow metrics

Heterogeneous and rapid ice loss over the Patagonian Ice Fields revealed by CryoSat-2 swath radar altimetry

"Overall, between 2011 and 2017 the Patagonian Ice Fields have lost mass at a combined rate of 21.29 ± 1.98 Gt a−1, contributing 0.059 ± 0.005 mm a−1 to SLR."

Hydrosphere

Climate Change and Drought: a Precipitation and Evaporation Perspective

Spatiotemporal pattern of terrestrial evapotranspiration in China during the past thirty years

The relationship between cool and warm season moisture over the central United States, 1685-2015

Quantification of climatic feedbacks on the Caspian Sea level variability and impacts from the Caspian Sea on the large-scale atmospheric circulation

The Influence of Sea Level Rise on the Regional Interdependence of Coastal Infrastructure (open access)

Atmospheric and oceanic circulation

Changes in ENSO amplitude under climate warming and cooling

Underlying mechanisms leading to El Niño-to-La Niña transition are unchanged under global warming

Nonlinear Response of the Stratosphere and the North Atlantic‐European Climate to Global Warming

Fast Response of the Tropics to an Abrupt Loss of Arctic Sea Ice via Ocean Dynamics

Regional climatology of the Northwest Atlantic Ocean—high-resolution mapping of ocean structure and change (open access)

Dynamical properties of the North Atlantic atmospheric circulation in the past 150 years in CMIP5 models and the 20CRv2c Reanalysis

Equatorial Atlantic variability—Modes, mechanisms, and global teleconnections

Interdecadal modulation of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) on southwest China’s temperature over the past 250 years

Impacts of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on Storm Track Activity, Surface Air Temperature, and Precipitation over North America

The internal generation of the Atlantic ocean interdecadal variability

Carbon cycle

Changes in the Response of the Northern Hemisphere Carbon Uptake to Temperature Over the Last Three Decades

Deconvolving the fate of carbon in coastal sediments (open access)

Climatic role of terrestrial ecosystem under elevated CO2: a bottom‐up greenhouse gases budget (open access)

Evaluation of CMIP5 Earth System Models for the spatial patterns of biomass and soil carbon turnover times and their linkage with climate

Massive carbon addition to an organic-rich Andosol increased the subsoil but not the topsoil carbon stock (open access)

Climate change impacts

Mankind

Investigating changes in mortality attributable to heat and cold in Stockholm, Sweden

"Total mortality attributable to non-optimal temperatures varied between periods and cold consistently had a larger impact on mortality than heat. Cold-related attributable fraction (AF) remained stable over time whereas heat-related AF decreased. AF on cold days remained stable over time, which may indicate that mortality during colder months may not decline as temperatures increase in the future."

Towards establishing evidence-based guidelines on maximum indoor temperatures during hot weather in temperate continental climates

Does the increase in ambient CO2 concentration elevate allergy risks posed by oak pollen?

Freshwater stress on small island developing states: population projections and aridity changes at 1.5 and 2 °C

Climate change, air pollution and human health in Sydney, Australia: A review of the literature (open access)

Autonomous adaptations to climate change and rice productivity: a case study of the Tanahun district, Nepal

Psychological distance of climate change and mental health risks assessment of smallholder farmers in Northern Ghana: Is habituation a threat to climate change?

Six languages for a risky climate: how farmers react to weather and climate change

Long-term drivers of vulnerability and resilience to drought in the Zambezi-Save area of southern Africa, 1505–1830

Rice yield potential, gaps and constraints during the past three decades in a climate-changing Northeast China

Detecting mismatches in the phenology of cotton bollworm larvae and cotton flowering in response to climate change

"The results showed that a warming climate advanced the phenology of cotton bollworm larvae and cotton flowering. However, the phenological rate of change was faster in cotton bollworm larvae than that in cotton flowering, and the larval period was prolonged, resulting in a great increase of the larval population. The abrupt phenological changes in cotton bollworm larvae occurred earlier than that in cotton, and the abrupt phenological changes in cotton flowering occurred earlier than that in larval abundance. However, the timing of abrupt changes in larval abundance all occurred later than that in temperature. Thus, the abrupt changes that occurred in larvae, cotton flowering and climate were asynchronous. The interval days between the cotton flowering date (CFD) and the half-amount larvae date (HLD) expanded by 3.41 and 4.41 days with a 1 °C increase of Tmean in May and June, respectively. The asynchrony between cotton bollworm larvae and cotton flowering will likely broaden as the climate changes. The effective temperature in March and April and the end date of larvae (ED) were the primary factors affecting asynchrony."

Biosphere

Limited evidence for CO2‐related growth enhancement in northern Rocky Mountain lodgepole pine populations across climate gradients

Phenotypic plasticity may help lizards cope with increasingly variable temperatures

The importance of an underestimated grazer under climate change: how crab density, consumer competition, and physical stress affect salt marsh resilience

Ocean acidification increases the sensitivity of and variability in physiological responses of an intertidal limpet to thermal stress (open access)

Bleaching and mortality of a photosymbiotic bioeroding sponge under future carbon dioxide emission scenarios

Revisiting the boron systematics of aragonite and their application to coral calcification (open access)

Counterintuitive effects of global warming‐induced wind patterns on primary production in the Northern Humboldt Current System

Legacy effects of land-use modulate tree growth responses to climate extremes

Conservation prioritization with machine learning predictions for the black-necked crane Grus nigricollis, a flagship species on the Tibetan Plateau for 2070

Climate change mitigation

Climate change communication

Rumor response, debunking response, and decision makings of misinformed Twitter users during disasters

Understanding climate change perception in community-based management contexts: perspectives of two Indigenous Communities

Emission savings

How clean are electric vehicles? Evidence-based review of the effects of electric mobility on air pollutants, greenhouse gas emissions and human health

Effectiveness of electric vehicle incentives in the United States

Air quality impacts of implementing emission reduction strategies at southern California airports

Determinants of enterprises use of energy efficient technologies: Evidence from urban Ethiopia

A driving–driven perspective on the key carbon emission sectors in China

Energy production

Carbon emissions from oil palm development on deep peat soil in central kalimantan indonesia

The effect of income on the energy mix: Are democracies more sustainable?

Photovoltaic and wind power feed-in impact on electricity prices: The case of Germany

How to find a reasonable energy transition strategy in Korea?: Quantitative analysis based on power market simulation

Climate Policy

Carbon pricing in practice: a review of existing emissions trading systems

Metropolitan planning organizations and climate change action

On the road to China's 2020 carbon intensity target from the perspective of “double control”

Other papers

General climate science

PyTroll: An open source, community driven Python framework to process Earth Observation satellite data (open access)

 

 

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Comments

Comments 1 to 2:

  1. It occures to me after perusing several weeks of research roundups that the "uncertaintity" around climate science is predominantly on the side of uncertain about how and/or why things are getting worse in almost every area of study.

    I understand that this is normal wrt the scientific principal but it is consistantly used as a reason for doubt.

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  2. Military leaders, corporate CEOs, fiancial investors, and decision makers at many other levels also deal with uncertainty when making decisions. It is not unique to science and uncertainty is usually not a good reason for inaction. It is simply being overstated in the context of science as an excuse for doing nothing.

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