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All IPCC definitions taken from Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Annex I, Glossary, pp. 941-954. Cambridge University Press.

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Comments 63701 to 63750:

  1. The Year After McLean - A Review of 2011 Global Temperatures
    Ken wrote: "I should have said..." You should have said what Trenberth actually said. Then we wouldn't have all this ridiculous back and forth over how best to interpret your misrepresentations of his position.
  2. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    I cannot get beyond the question of whether someone who releases a wad of accurate and damning Heartland documents would also shoot themselves in the foot by including a completely fake document. That stretches credulity. I repeat my point at #123. If the figures the 'fake' document contains are correct (as questions to some of the people mentioned seem to suggest) then how could the 'faker' have got them? Someone should demand that the HI allow an independent auditor to check the figures. Only if the figures are incorrect can the Heartland prove the document is fake. If the HI don't agree to an audit then we should assume they're lying.
  3. Video of Chuck Kutscher debunking climate skeptic arguments
    Great presenter. Great plug for John and SkS. Great quote:
    Yeah, I'm preaching to the choir but, y'know what? The choir isn't doing enough!" [48' 38"]
  4. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    The latest Guardian piece on this quotes a Heartland Institute spokesperson as saying: "At any rate, our standing policy is to not discuss confidential documents..." http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/feb/15/heartland-institute-fraud-leak-climate?intcmp=239 They seem to have conveniently forgotten about the emails. The same confidential documents which formed a "badly hemorrhaging climate alarmoscientists' scandal". A selection of which Heartland published on its own web site. http://heartland.org/policy-documents/presto-alarmist-emails-not-such-big-deal http://heartland.org/policy-documents/heres-selection-hacked-emails-climate-research-unit http://news.heartland.org/newspaper-article/2011/12/28/climategate-2-reveals-further-scientific-misconduct-doubts Catch Heartland discussing private documents? Surely not! For 'tis the sport to have the enginer Hoist with his own petar; and 't shall go hard But I will delve one yard below their mines And blow them at the moon:
  5. macwithoutfries at 19:03 PM on 16 February 2012
    Tropical Thermostats and Global Warming
    I wonder if another limiting factor might not be at this point the temperature gradient toward the deep ocean - meaning that once the deep ocean also gets warmer we will start seeing surface ocean temperatures getting higher?
  6. Video of Chuck Kutscher debunking climate skeptic arguments
    Nice plug for SkS at the end! And Kutscher's a very good communicator, good presentation.
  7. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    Ignore the climate strategy doc, which has very little extra real information beyond that in the other docs and those are quite consistent and mesh quite well with my long report that is based entirely on public (if often obscure) data. People really should spend a few minutes and look at the first 4 pages of that and see what else they want to read. For Aussies, pp.63-64 will help explain the presence of Oz in the flow diagram on p.3. To summarize a long story, documented in detail, IRS rules generally forbid US 501(c)(3) charities from sending grants to foreign non-charities except under restricted circumstances ... and saying that such foreign recipients need not be monitored because they are "friends" doesn't cut it.
  8. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    So George Soros is funding SkS? So with all that funding, how come we authors ain't seen none of it. If Soros is funding SkS, how come John Cook needs a day-job at the University of Queensland? And if Soros was backing an AGW site, why would he pick one in Brisbane, Australia. Surely George could have a chat to Bill Gates and get something a bit more up-market than that. Maybe Larry Brin or someone. But Soros decides to back a solar physics graduate from Oz. Is this how the man who nearly brought Sterling down operates? (no offence JC, but I think if George was backing us I wouldn't be struggling with a dying laptop just to stay on-line)
  9. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    I wonder how these revelations will be dealt with by the IRS? Do you suppose they will change the tax status of the HI?
  10. Philippe Chantreau at 17:01 PM on 16 February 2012
    Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    Sorry guys, I'd rather not look...
  11. Tropical Thermostats and Global Warming
    The 1.5k delta in a doubled CO2 environment is similar to the -2k delta for tropical oceans during the eras of the Ice Ages: "Beginning about 2.7 million years ago, the geologists found that tropical ocean surface temperatures dropped by 1 to 3 degrees C (1.8 to 5.4 F) during each Ice Age, ..." T. Herbert, NSF Study, 2010 If it's not magically capped from then to now, the magic-max claim becomes nothing more than a variant on 'global warming ended yesterday/today/soon'.
  12. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    You've got it. There were several threads dedicated to that one...
  13. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    jmsully, Are you talking about Nickolov & Zeller's United Theory of Climate? That was crackpottery of an unusually pure form.
  14. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    Philippe, There are many more than one 2nd law threads at WUWT! My recent fave is the Equation 8 thread.
  15. Philippe Chantreau at 15:57 PM on 16 February 2012
    Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    Tom, "Clearly also the Heartland Institute can easily confirm their account, and that the strategy document is a fake by releasing the email from the purported fake board member, and the email and attachments to the purported fake board member." Couldn't agree more. That would clerar up everything and is the most convenient thing to do. If they don't do it, well... I scan documents all the time and save them as pdf files, which I can then easily attach to an e-mail. The buffoons at WUWT calling SkS a pseudo science site has me still laughing. Even among the comments, I have never seen anything comparable to WUWT's carbonic snow fiasco on SkS. I guess the 2nd law thread may be the exception, some of the comments there went way beyond the "not even wrong" and the patience of the moderators on it went beyond my comprehension, kudos to them.
  16. The Year After McLean - A Review of 2011 Global Temperatures
    CBD #37 Well yes you do. Clearly I accept your rebuke for having neglected to include the word 'effect' after 'Asian aerosols', as I did when listing the 'delayed Pinitubo rebound effect'. Asian aerosols exist just like Australian aerosols exist and USA aerosols exist - it is the particular effects of same which are in question. I did exaggerate slightly when I said that 'neither exist'. I should have said that the Trenberth opinion was that 'the particular effect of Asian aerosols' was not a cause of the lack of warming imbalance, and that the 'delayed Pinitubo rebound effect' was so bizzare that no other scientist to my knowledge has ever treated it seriously with a comment. For them it does not exist - for Jim Hansen it does.
  17. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    Tom, don't you understand? The identity of the billionaire has been revealed on WUWT many, many times. It is.... George Soros!!!!
  18. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    a multiple convicted felon who worked willingly for the Nazis in WWII For those who don't know, the ADL has weighed in on this accusation: To hold a young boy responsible for what was going on around him during the Holocaust as part of a larger effort to denigrate the man is repugnant. Repugnant. Par for the course from WUWT.
  19. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    Eric (skeptic) @140, if they do not disprove the theory when they obviously have the means of doing so by releasing the relevant emails, the obvious conclusion is that they cannot disprove the theory because the relevant emails do not exist.
  20. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    Brian Purdue @139, he is not having a lend, and I have a screenshot. Anthony Watts likes to pretend to a high moral ground on a number of issues. Curiously, on every criticism he has made of SkS and in which he has pretended to the high moral ground, I have found (and have a record of) examples of his doing exactly the same things. This straight out conspiracy theory level slander by moderators is, of course something unique to his and other denier sites. [sarc] "Oh no, I used the "D"-word. That must be some sort of supper covert allusion to holocaust denial. Not that deniers would ever explicitly or implicitly try to associate "warmistas" with the Nazis: "a well known billionaire is funding the pseudo science blog sceptical science. That billionaire is a multiple convicted felon who worked willingly for the Nazis in WWII. How is that not headline news?" (my emphasis) [/sarc]
  21. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    I agree with the ringer theory. The issue is proving there was an insider as stated at Desmog or a identity theft as stated at HI. Even if it was a disgruntled insider it leaves open the door to doubt (of the authenticity) and if there's one thing we should know is that door is always open at places like HI. I would not hold my breath waiting for them to prove anything.
  22. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    Chemware – the real significance of that wild statement is that it was made by a WUWT moderator!(assuming otter17 is not have a lend of us)
  23. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    I tend to agree with Tom's analysis (#133). Speculating...maybe the document is genuine, but came from another time and another channel, not from the original set of documents. Perhaps someone left it lying around as a hard copy somewhere within or outside of Heartland. Feel free to poke holes in the plausibility of that. To me, the wording seems plausible enough if it was an unofficial document, maybe a personal email from someone. Clearly, publicly, they would not want to ever convey they were trying to deter the teaching of science, or eliminate "opposing views" (especially because that's the correct impression many get of them), and I think this facade would want to extend to official internal communications and strategy documents that get approved. So it would realistically have to be a draft of something less formal, which is a different type of communication than say a tax form or 2012 budget document.
  24. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    @135 otter17 Let's see, this well-known billionaire would then have been born in 1920 or earlier, which makes him 92 years old, or more. Has SkS got any money from an old people's home recently ?
  25. Fritz Vahrenholt - Duped on Climate Change
    Martin#34: I looked at Kirkby's video in its entirety. Some of your points are not quite so clear. "Kirkby doesn't claim that cosmic rays lead to increases in cloud cover." That claim was made numerous times in the prior literature; it is the basis of the entire idea for the CLOUD experiment. See anything by Svensmark and his popularizer, Nigel Calder. "UV is neglected as an input in climate models, the sign for solar irradiance forcing is wrong." UV is not neglected; Haigh 2011 is a model study using UV. The case for UV variation flipping the sign of solar forcing is not clear. Consider this statement from the Max Planck Institute: the UV radiation shortward of 400 nm contributes only about 8% to the magnitude of the total solar irradiance, it is responsible for about 60% of the variation of the total irradiance. So most of the variation is in a wavelength range that is a minimal component of total solar output. Lots of folks spend all their time studying these questions; to show they've missed something this big would be quite an achievement indeed. But it hasn't appeared in the literature yet. "think of Kirkby as a sceptic it might be more because of what he thinks is poorly understood" Not true. Cosmic ray physics are reasonably well understood. What I have not understood in Kirkby's work is why they designed the experiment to model solar cosmic ray energies - not galactic cosmic ray energies. And I've discussed that with particle physicists at CERN who don't understand it either. Then there is this important, yet neglected question: How can the same ionization effect be triggered by lower energy gamma rays?
  26. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    Tom Curtis seems to have summed up the logical issues to do with the scanned 'Strategy' document being a potential ringer. There's plenty of interest in the other documents, particularly the 'Fundraising Plan' We'll see, of course. But given the nature of the other content the motivation for gilding the lily would be close to unfathomable. For a start, look what the discussion here is now focused on. Talleyrand's famous 'it's worse than a crime: it's a blunder' comes to mind.
  27. A prelude to the Arctic melting season
    Daniel Bailey @42 I am not sure the problem is with the January temperatures in the arctic. The bigger concern may be the summer arctic temperatures when the air gets above freezing and the sun shines 24/7. source. Here is a January 1977 anomaly map when winter ice shows the largest extent in the record (compare to your 2012 graph) (article with graph of arctic ice 1972 to 2002). source. What may be more significant are the summer month anomalies. source. or-(another summer with low arctic ice area) source. And for comparative view the summer of 1977. source.
  28. 2000 Years of Climate Reconstructed from Pollen
    The captions says: "Black and red lines are the Summit [Box et al., 2009] and AWS [Stearns and Weidner, 1991; Shuman et al., 2001; Steffen and Box, 2001; Vaarby‐Laursen, 2010] decadal average temperature, respectively" What is "AWS"?
    Response:

    "Summit Automatic Weather Station ∼2 m surface air temperature (SAT) observations (hereafter AWS or in-situ record)"

  29. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    I was curious what Watts' response would look like, and I was skimming through the comments. I saw this one by a moderator. "[Reply: a well known billionaire is funding the pseudo science blog sceptical science. That billionaire is a multiple convicted felon who worked willingly for the Nazis in WWII. How is that not headline news? -mod]" I laughed out loud when I first read it since it sounded more like a schoolyard rumor.
  30. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    When otherwise illiterate people try to write formally they often suffer from unnecessary verboseness. e.g. "Given the increasingly important role the Heartland Institute is playing in leading..." Better, "Given the increasingly important role the Heartland Institute plays in leading..." And surely no one fell for this? "Heartland is part of a growing network of groups working the climate issues" (reminds of the Blades Of Glory quote "work the Google on the internet machine", possibly where the author learnt the usuage) I got those from the briefest of scans of that 'Stategy' document and those two stuck out like sore thumbs.
  31. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    Glenn Tamblyn @132, if the supposed forger had used a different set of scientists, the fact that the stragegy document was a forgery would have been immediately confirmed by its disagreement with the other documents. What the strategy document adds is extremely damning comments about the motives behind expenditures (ie, to dissuade teachers teaching climate science because it is controversial and complicated). We should not assume the strategy document is correct until such time as it becomes evident that the Heartland Institute is unwilling to show the evidence that would establish it as a fake (see my previous post).
  32. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    Interesting that Heartland are claiming the key document is a fake. Surely if someone was wanting to fake a document like this, for maximum impact they would have picked a different list of recipient scientists. Idso as the largest recipient? Most people haven't herd of the Idso's. A fake would more likely have targetted Lindzen, Christy or Spencer. Or even suggested that Watts was directly on the payroll. The more moderate nature of who is on the list makes it more credible.
  33. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    With regard to the strategy document: 1) Based on the information provided by GreenCooling, it was scanned on an Epson machine on Feb 14th. 2) It is not possible to conclude from that that it was not authentic, but only that prior to that it did not exist as a computer file in the hands of the leaker; 3) It is not possible to conclude from its late creation date that it is not authentic, because that is just the date of scanning; 4) It is not possible to conclude from its lack of a mentioned author that it is not authentic, as that again is just a product of its being scanned; 5) It is equally not possible to conclude from its accurate details that it is authentic, for if was inauthentic, the creation date means the creator had access to the other materials at the time of purported forgery; 6) It may be possible to get an indication one way of the other by checking the properties of the 2010 tax return, which was also scanned. When I check it does not indicate that it was scanned by an Epson machine, which is consistent with (but not conclusive evidence of) its not be created at the Heartland Institute, and hence being a fake. 7) Clearly if the Heartland Institute's claim that the authentic documents were obtained by a phishing attack is correct, the strategy document is a fake in that it was not emailed to the recipient. 8) Clearly also the Heartland Institute can easily confirm their account, and that the strategy document is a fake by releasing the email from the purported fake board member, and the email and attachments to the purported fake board member. Doing so would also clearly indicate which part of other documents had been falsified, if any. Their're failure to release the emails should be interpreted as showing their account to be a cover story rather than the truth, IMO. Their failure to release the attachments would, IMO, show that they believe the original documents to be as damning as those released, regardless of any falsifying of those documents.
  34. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    John Brookes @72 "Is there anything connecting Heartland with Australian skeptical bloggers? Maybe through the Institute of Public Affairs... " Carter is involved in most Australian Skeptic Blogs/sites, Science Adviser to SPPI, The Galileo Movement in Australia. And he is a Fellow at the IPA. The guy is connected and a player.
  35. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    If the Heartland Institute's claims about how the data were obtained are true the question arises, how did the caller know enough to get away with this impersonation? I don't see how it could have been done unless someone inside gave the caller the required information. Someone correct me if they can think of another way. But if an internal leak is required to carry out the impersonation why would the impersonation be necessary? Surely the provider of the information could have just taken out copies of the files. It is a bit unusual to have seven genuine documents and one fake released. The fake is likely to undermine the impact of the real documents. Still, a zealot might be tempted to gild the lilly. I think it is more likely than not that the Heartland Institute is lying. But even if they aren't their indignation is a bit rich. They actually complain about the integrity of their people being attacked. Pity they did not have such indignation about the attacks on the integrity of climate scientists.
  36. Tropical Thermostats and Global Warming
    Emilio Yep, there are good reasons why tropical waters are so crystal clear so we can ogle the pretty coral - they really are deserts as far as microscopic life is concerned. Where as cold polar waters are 'dirty' and grey - teeming with life. So more warming equals less productive oceans.
  37. 2000 Years of Climate Reconstructed from Pollen
    Thank you very much. One question: what is the red line on figure 1 of the paper?
    Response:

    The caption for Fig 1 delineates those individually.

  38. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    This is pure speculation, but if you look at p.6 of the budget, titled "3. Personnel Overview" it seems there has been a bit of staff turnover, with some recent retrenchments and unhappy circumstances such as: * "...director of the Center for Transforming Education, was reduced to part-time and then volunteer status as fundraising for the Center failed to reach expectations. He will be restored to part-time or full-time status only if funds are raised."; * "...a legislative specialist working out of our Washington DC office since 2010, was let go mid-year after we concluded he wasn’t the right guy to lead a new and expanded Free to Choose Medicine project."; and, * "...our computer systems manager for the past 10 years, was let go in late 2011 due to chronic truancy. She received severance pay for 2 weeks in January, so she still appears in the personnel budget for 2012." Perhaps our leaker (or at least one of them?) might be a disgruntled employee? Or one of the new ones who's been shocked to find out what they've walked into?
  39. Book review of Michael Mann's The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars
    Going to go see Dr Mann speaking at the Aquarium of the Pacific (Long Beach CA) in just over 2 hours. Still not too late to make it if you are a local!
  40. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    The Guardian article makes clear the dichotomy between HI's attitude to the CRU email theft and the exposure of its own documents:
    The exchanges over the provenance of the documents are bound to deepen the comparisons to the 2009 hacking of scientists' email at the University of East Anglia's climate research unit. At the time, Heartland said the theft of those personal emails created "an opportunity for reporters, academics, politicians" to revise their belief in climate change. On Wednesday, however, Heartland said DeSmog and others should be "ashamed" of writing about the documents before the thinktank could comment. [Heartland communications director, Jim] Lakely also asked bloggers and journalists to take down the documents and refrain from quoting them. (Emphasis added)
    I am a blogger and I will not stop commenting on the leaked documents, because I believe they have created an opportunity for reporters, academics, politicians to revise their belief in climate change denialism.
  41. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    Article now posted on www.msnbc.com US environmental page
  42. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    Dennis @94 makes a very good point, there is something fishy with the "2012 Climate Strategy" document. Heartland is claiming it is bogus, and it appears to me they are correct. My guess is that someone has taken a step too far, and prepared an "executive summary" to make the package more digestible, but it's a shame they didn't just do this and sign off as 'anonymous'. Strikes me that nothing in the strategy is unsupported in the other documents, but the deceptiveness in play adds an unfortunate twist. If you have a look at the "properties" or use "tools" - "inspector" on Mac, it is pretty clear it is a scan, all the other docs give the file location and identify the author. And the date of 14 Feb is a bit of a giveaway, given all the others are from the January meeting or before.
  43. 2000 Years of Climate Reconstructed from Pollen
    Tom Curtis , from where you got that beautiful paleoclimate graph in comment 21?
  44. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    Oh the irony. Heartland comes out claiming both theft and forgery! The documents are fake! But even if they were not fake they were stolen! Why am I reminded strongly of ... Global warming isn't happening! ... Even if it is, it's all natural! I think comparisons with how Heartland treated the CRU emails theft would make very interesting reading right now.
  45. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    The alleged 'faked' document is full of figures. And it appears that they are correct figures. So do we find it plausible that the faker -- supposedly an outsider -- could make up these figures and get them so accurate? And anyway, the document itself is not that important -- provided the figures are confirmed as accurate. So the Heartland is snookered: the only way it can prove the document is a fake is by showing that the figures it contains are wrong; and they can only show they're wrong by letting an independent auditor verify the real figures. If they don't agree to an audit then everyone knows they're lying. And they can hardly refuse an audit when they were so keen on the UEA enquiry, can they? However one sees it, it looks like they'll go down in flames.
  46. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    If Heartland wish to demonstrate that the doscuments are authentic then they can post side-by-side comparisons with their own versions, together with information on the computer that was used to produce the documents, time of creation etc. As for thei claim that the scanned confidential memo is fake...show us all your memos then and associated emails so that we can corroborate that claim. The fact that the content of the alleged "faked" memo is corroborated by the content of the other PDFs makes their claim not very compelling at all. Anthony Watts is throwing a tanturm and suddenly cares about journalistic integrity and ethics etc.. How much did Heartland contribute to or pay Watts for publishing this nonsense?
  47. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    CBD@117 "It is almost like they are applying slightly different standards." Slightly different standards? From what I can see, they have posted numerous articles about the climategate emails and not once checked the validity of those articles with the scientists concerned.
  48. Tropical Thermostats and Global Warming
    And 31 oC isn´t a paradise. For most ocean species, 31 oC is a hell.
  49. citizenschallenge at 09:11 AM on 16 February 2012
    Fritz Vahrenholt - Duped on Climate Change
    Interesting discussion re elsa, her comments and the valuable replies she received then how she handled them. I know this get's pretty simple but elsa try out this short video: Global Warming: It's Not About the Hockey Stick ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ However I came here for a different reason. Back to Vahrenholt's interview, answering question #4 his reply includes the following, when explaining why he doesn't trust the IPCC: "...In one case, a Greenpeace activist's absurd claim that 80 percent of the world's energy supply could soon be coming from renewable sources was assumed without scrutiny. This prompted me to examine the IPCC report more carefully." ~ ~ ~ Does anyone know the background to this. . . and the rest of the story?
  50. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    Curry's waded in with some 'balance' http://judithcurry.com/2012/02/15/heartland/ The damage limitation crew are working overtime... /sarcasm

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