Arguments
Skeptical Science New Research for Week #21, 2021
Posted on 26 May 2021 by Doug Bostrom
Moving targets
In Permafrost carbon feedbacks threaten global climate goals, Susan Natali & crew point out a potential serious omission in Paris Accords climate targets: the changing "nature" of permafrost and the carbon and hence readily available CO2 therein. The abstract:
Rapid Arctic warming has intensified northern wildfires and is thawing carbon-rich permafrost. Carbon emissions from permafrost thaw and Arctic wildfires, which are not fully accounted for in global emissions budgets, will greatly reduce the amount of greenhouse gases that humans can emit to remain below 1.5 °C or 2 °C. The Paris Agreement provides ongoing opportunities to increase ambition to reduce society’s greenhouse gas emissions, which will also reduce emissions from thawing permafrost. In December 2020, more than 70 countries announced more ambitious nationally determined contributions as part of their Paris Agreement commitments; however, the carbon budgets that informed these commitments were incomplete, as they do not fully account for Arctic feedbacks. There is an urgent need to incorporate the latest science on carbon emissions from permafrost thaw and northern wildfires into international consideration of how much more aggressively societal emissions must be reduced to address the global climate crisis.
We've a lot to keep track of, much of it shifting beneath our feet. Natali et al is open access and free to read.
Moving targets #2
What can change the mind of a person stubbornly resistant to facts? Certain kinds of facts, maybe. Grant McDermott sets up an experiment to assess how self-professed climate "skeptics" adjust their beliefs when confronted with evidence of climate change from instrumental records. For McDermott the interest of the experiment lies in unifying seemingly disparate theories of accessibility of "skeptic" cognition but his paper is also suggestive of yet another set of mental buttons to push in the pursuit of progress. The abstract:
How much evidence would it take to convince climate skeptics that they are wrong? I explore this question within an empirical Bayesian framework. I consider a group of stylized skeptics and examine how these individuals rationally update their beliefs in the face of ongoing climate change. I find that available evidence in the form of instrumental climate data tends to overwhelm all but the most extreme priors. Most skeptics form updated beliefs about climate sensitivity that correspond closely to estimates from the scientific literature. However, belief convergence is a nonlinear function of prior strength and it becomes increasingly difficult to convince the remaining pool of dissenters. I discuss the necessary conditions for consensus formation under Bayesian learning and show that apparent deviations from the Bayesian ideal can still be accommodated within the same conceptual framework. I argue that a generalized Bayesian model provides a bridge between competing theories of climate skepticism as a social phenomenon.
Skeptic priors and climate consensus is open access and free to read.
95 articles
Observations of climate change, effects
Stratospheric contraction caused by increasing greenhouse gases
Pisoft et al Environmental Research Letters
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abfe2b
Trends and patterns in annually burned forest areas and fire weather across the European boreal zone in the 20th and early 21st centuries
Drobyshev et al Agricultural and Forest Meteorology null
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2021.108467 10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-8364
The Brazilian Cerrado is becoming hotter and drier
Hofmann et al Global Change Biology
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15712
Spatiotemporal analysis of air temperature indices, aridity conditions, and precipitation in Iran
Sadeqi & Kahya Kahya Theoretical and Applied Climatology null
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s00704-021-03658-1 10.21203/rs.3.rs-352998/v1
The poleward enhanced Arctic Ocean cooling machine in a warming climate
Shu et al Nature Communications
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-23321-7
Environmental drivers of circum-Antarctic glacier and ice shelf front retreat over the last two decades
Baumhoer et al The Cryosphere
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-15-2357-2021
Geographic variation and temporal trends in ice phenology in Norwegian lakes during the period 1890–2020
L'Abée-Lund et al The Cryosphere
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-15-2333-2021
Extreme precipitation trends in northeast algeria using a high?resolution gridded daily dataset
Bessaklia et al International Journal of Climatology
DOI: 10.1002/joc.7213
A 168-year temperature recording based on tree rings and latitude differences in temperature changes in northeast China
Jiang et al International Journal of Biometeorology
DOI: 10.1007/s00484-021-02142-9
Trend and ENSO-based analysis of last spring frost and chilling in Iran
Helali et al Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics
DOI: 10.1007/s00703-021-00804-2
Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects
Subpolar North Atlantic western boundary density anomalies and the Meridional Overturning Circulation
Li et al Nature Communications
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-23350-2
Koppen?Trewartha Climate classification (KTC) as a diagnostic tool to identify pronounced changes in the projected climate by the GCMs over India
Bindhu et al International Journal of Climatology
DOI: 10.1002/joc.7216
Testing for Trends on a Regional Scale: Beyond Local Significance
Huth & Dubrovský Journal of Climate
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-19-0960.1
A small climate-amplifying effect of climate-carbon cycle feedback
Zhang et al Nature Communications
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-22392-w
Impacts of snow data and processing methods on the interpretation of long-term changes in Baffin Bay sea ice thickness
Glissenaar et al null null
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-2021-135 10.5194/tc-2021-135-supplement
Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects
Near future changes to rain-on-snow events in Norway
Mooney & Li Environmental Research Letters
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abfdeb
Global mortality risk assessment from river flooding under climate change
Zhang et al Environmental Research Letters
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abff87
Transient Response of the Southern Ocean to Idealized Wind and Thermal Forcing across Different Model Resolutions
Li et al Journal of Climate
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0981.1
AMOC Stability and Diverging Response to Arctic Sea Ice Decline in Two Climate Models
Li et al Journal of Climate
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0572.1
Evaluation of extreme precipitation over Asia in CMIP6 models
Dong & Dong Hsu Climate Dynamics Weather and Climate Extremes
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-05773-1 10.1016/j.wace.2021.100303
Impact of air–sea coupling on the climate change signal over the Iberian Peninsula
de la Vara et al Climate Dynamics null
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-05812-x 10.21203/rs.3.rs-288907/v1
The effects of historical ozone changes on Southern Ocean heat uptake and storage
Li et al Climate Dynamics
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-05803-y
Uncertainty of Central China Summer Precipitation and Related Natural Internal Variability Under Global Warming of 1°C to 3°C
Li et al International Journal of Climatology
DOI: 10.1002/joc.7217
Persistent Anomaly Changes in High-Resolution Climate Simulations
Lackmann et al Journal of Climate
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0465.1
A reduction in the sea surface warming rate in the South China Sea during 1999–2010
Jiang et al Climate Dynamics
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-05796-8
Assessment of Decadal Variability in Sea Ice in the Community Earth System Model against a Long-Term Regional Observational Record: Implications for the Predictability of an Ice-Free Arctic
Desmarais & Tremblay Journal of Climate
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0561.1
Uncertainties in projected surface mass balance over the polar ice sheets from downscaled EC-Earth models
Boberg et al null
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-2021-140
The poleward enhanced Arctic Ocean cooling machine in a warming climate
Shu et al Nature Communications
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-23321-7
Forecast and uncertainty analysis of extreme precipitation in China from ensemble of multiple climate models
Deng & Zhu Zhu Theoretical and Applied Climatology null
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s00704-021-03660-7 10.21203/rs.3.rs-209537/v1
Present?day and future climate over Central and South America according to CMIP5/CMIP6 models DOI: 10.1007/s00704-021-03660-7 10.21203/rs.3.rs-209537/v1
Advances in climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection
A New Method for Assessing the Performance of General Circulation Models Based on Their Ability to Simulate the Response to Observed Forcing
Altamirano del Carmen et al Journal of Climate
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0510.1
Cryosphere & climate change
A realistic Greenland ice sheet and surrounding glaciers and ice caps melting in a coupled climate model
Devilliers et al Climate Dynamics null
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-05816-7 10.21203/rs.3.rs-401895/v1
Snowfall and snowpack in the Western U.S. as captured by convection permitting climate simulations: current climate and pseudo global warming future climate
Ikeda et al Climate Dynamics
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-05805-w
Record summer rains in 2019 led to massive loss of surface and cave ice in SE Europe
Per?oiu et al The Cryosphere
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-15-2383-2021
Assessment of Decadal Variability in Sea Ice in the Community Earth System Model against a Long-Term Regional Observational Record: Implications for the Predictability of an Ice-Free Arctic
Desmarais & Tremblay Journal of Climate
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0561.1
Uncertainties in projected surface mass balance over the polar ice sheets from downscaled EC-Earth models
Boberg et al null
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-2021-140
Observed interannual changes beneath Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf linked to large-scale atmospheric circulation
Hattermann et al Nature Communications
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-23131-x
Environmental drivers of circum-Antarctic glacier and ice shelf front retreat over the last two decades
Baumhoer et al The Cryosphere
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-15-2357-2021
Geographic variation and temporal trends in ice phenology in Norwegian lakes during the period 1890–2020
L'Abée-Lund et al The Cryosphere
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-15-2333-2021
Impacts of snow data and processing methods on the interpretation of long-term changes in Baffin Bay sea ice thickness
Glissenaar et al null null
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-2021-135 10.5194/tc-2021-135-supplement
Sea level & climate change
Towards reliable global allowances for sea level rise
Woodworth et al Global and Planetary Change
DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2021.103522
Projected sea level rise on the continental shelves of the China Seas and the dominance of mass contribution
Chen et al Environmental Research Letters
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abfdea
Soil greenhouse gas emissions from a sisal chronosequence in Kenya
Wachiye et al Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2021.108465
Biology & climate change
Projection of vegetation distribution to 1.5?°C and 2?°C of global warming on the Tibetan Plateau
Zhao et al Global and Planetary Change
DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2021.103525
Elevated carbon dioxide reduces a common soybean leaf endophyte
Christian et al Global Change Biology
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15716
A portfolio of climate?tailored approaches to advance the design of marine protected areas in the Red Sea
Gajdzik et al Global Change Biology
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15719
Carryover effects of long-term high temperatures on fitness-related traits of the offspring of the sea urchin Strongylocentrotus intermedius DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15719
Reciprocal transplant gardens as gold standard to detect local adaptation in grassland species: New opportunities moving into the 21st century DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15719
Impacts of climate change on aquatic insects in temperate alpine regions: Complementary modeling approaches applied to Swiss rivers
Timoner et al Global Change Biology
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15637
Living on the edge: A continental?scale assessment of forest vulnerability to drought
Peters et al Global Change Biology
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15641
Climate warming drives divergence of montane butterfly communities in Southern Italy
Santorufo et al Regional Environmental Change
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s10113-021-01782-2
Don’t forget subterranean ecosystems in climate change agendas
Sánchez-Fernández et al Nature Climate Change
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01057-y
The variable climate response of Rocky Mountain bristlecone Pine (Pinus aristata Engelm.) DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01057-y
Thermal acclimation increases the stability of a predator?prey interaction in warmer environments
Sohlström et al Global Change Biology
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15715
Decreased soil moisture due to warming drives phylogenetic diversity and community transitions in the tundra
Scharn et al Environmental Research Letters
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abfe8a
GHG sources & sinks, flux
Permafrost carbon feedbacks threaten global climate goals
Natali et al Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2100163118
The impact of shifting Köppen-Geiger climate zones on soil organic carbon concentrations in Australian grasslands
Gibson et al Global and Planetary Change
DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2021.103523
Measurement report: Regional characteristics of seasonal and long-term variations in greenhouse gases at Nainital, India and Comilla, Bangladesh
Nomura et al null
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/acp-2021-317
Forest floor fluxes drive differences in the carbon balance of contrasting boreal forest stands
Chi et al Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2021.108454
Spatial biases of information influence global estimates of soil respiration: How can we improve global predictions?
Stell et al Global Change Biology
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15666
Temporal variability of air–sea CO2 flux in the western tropical North Atlantic influenced by the Amazon River plume DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15666
Carbon export and fate beneath a dynamic upwelled filament off the California coast
Bourne et al Biogeosciences null
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/bg-18-3053-2021 10.5194/bg-2020-342
Low?intensity frequent fires in coniferous forests transform soil organic matter in ways that may offset ecosystem carbon losses
Pellegrini et al Global Change Biology
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15648
Temporal evolution of mid-tropospheric CO2 over the Indian Ocean
Peter et al Atmospheric Environment
DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2021.118475
Impact of vegetation greening on carbon and water cycle in the African Sahel-Sudano-Guinean region
Ogutu et al Global and Planetary Change
DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2021.103524
Greenhouse gas emission scenarios in nine key non-G20 countries: An assessment of progress toward 2030 climate targets
Kuramochi et al Environmental Science & Policy
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1016/j.envsci.2021.04.015
CO2 removal & mitigation science & engineering
Carbon capture, utilization, and storage hub development on the Gulf Coast
Meckel et al Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1002/ghg.2082
Geoengineering climate
Assessing the potential efficacy of marine cloud brightening for cooling Earth using a simple heuristic model
Wood null null
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1002/essoar.10505097.1 10.5194/acp-2021-327
Black carbon
Wintertime direct radiative effects due to black carbon (BC) over the Indo-Gangetic Plain as modelled with new BC emission inventories in CHIMERE
Ghosh et al Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/acp-21-7671-2021
Aerosols
Future evolution of aerosols and implications for climate change in the Euro-Mediterranean region using the CNRM-ALADIN63 regional climate model
Drugé et al Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/acp-21-7639-2021
Decarbonization
Quantifying the carbon footprint reduction potential of lifestyle choices in Japan
Shigetomi et al Environmental Research Letters
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abfc07
The role of hydropower reservoirs in deep decarbonization policy
Dimanchev et al Energy Policy
DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112369
Climate change communications & cognition
Skeptic priors and climate consensus
McDermott Climatic Change
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03089-x
Is it possible to build adolescents’ cognitive adaptive capacity through climate change education? Insights into a two-year long educational programme in North Tyrol (Austria) and South Tyrol (Italy)
Gerald Schrot et al Climate Risk Management
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2021.100327
Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change
International politics must be considered together with climate and fisheries regulation as a driver of marine ecosystems
de Carvalho-Souza et al Global Environmental Change
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102288
The effect of conservation tillage in managing climate change in arid and semiarid areas—a case study in Northwest China
Dong et al Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change
DOI: 10.1007/s11027-021-09956-3
Combined heat and drought suppress rainfed maize and soybean yields and modify irrigation benefits in the USA
Luan et al Environmental Research Letters
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abfc76
Livelihood vulnerability and climate change: a comparative analysis of smallholders in the Indo-Gangetic plains
Venus et al Environment, Development and Sustainability
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s10668-021-01516-8
Climate change impacts on potential maize yields in Gambella Region, Ethiopia
Degife et al Regional Environmental Change
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s10113-021-01773-3
Hydrology & climate change
Attributable human-induced changes in the magnitude of flooding in the Houston, Texas region during Hurricane Harvey
Wehner & Sampson Climatic Change
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03114-z
Uncertainty in the extreme flood magnitude estimates of large-scale flood hazard models
Devitt et al Environmental Research Letters
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abfac4
Integrated assessment of extreme events and hydrological responses of Indo-Nepal Gandak River Basin
Chaubey et al Environment, Development and Sustainability
DOI: 10.1007/s10668-020-00986-6
Global mortality risk assessment from river flooding under climate change
Zhang et al Environmental Research Letters
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abff87
Climate change enhances deepwater warming of subtropical reservoirs: evidence from hydrodynamic modelling
Soares et al Climatic Change
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03124-x
Economics & finance of climate change & mitigation
Heterogeneous emission trading schemes and green innovation
Yao et al Energy Policy
DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112367
Climate change mitigation public policy research
Stabilisation wedges: measuring progress towards transforming the global energy and land use systems
Johnson et al Environmental Research Letters
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abec06
Contraction and convergence of in-use metal stocks to meet climate goals
Watari et al Global Environmental Change
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102284
Context and future directions for integrating forest carbon into sub-national climate mitigation planning in the RGGI region of the U.S.
Lamb et al null Environmental Research Letters
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1002/essoar.10505328.1 10.1088/1748-9326/abe6c2
Climate change impacts on human health
Climate change and water-related diseases in developing countries of Western Asia: a systematic literature review
Teymouri & Dehghanzadeh Climate and Development
DOI: 10.1080/17565529.2021.1911773
Climate change and risk of arboviral diseases in the state of Rio de Janeiro (Brazil)
Oscar Júnior & de Assis Mendonça Mendonça Theoretical and Applied Climatology null
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s00704-021-03663-4 10.21203/rs.3.rs-203409/v1
Years of life lost and life expectancy attributable to ambient temperature: a time series study in 93 Chinese cities
Ai et al Environmental Research Letters
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abfb2d
Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research
Global adaptation governance: how intergovernmental organizations mainstream climate change adaptation
Dellmuth & Gustafsson Climate Policy
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2021.1927661
A Policy Tool for Monitoring and Evaluation of Participation in Adaptation Projects
Natalia Wojewska et al Climate Risk Management
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2021.100326
Identifying and mitigating risks to completion of small grant climate change adaptation projects: evidence from the Pacific DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2021.100326
“It depends…”: Inuit-led identification and interpretation of land-based observations for climate change adaptation in Nunatsiavut, Labrador
Sawatzky et al Regional Environmental Change
DOI: 10.1007/s10113-021-01772-4
Integrating climate change adaptation in coastal governance of the Barcelona metropolitan area
Sauer et al Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s11027-021-09953-6
Planned relocation in Peru: advancing from well-meant legislation to good practice
Bergmann Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s13412-021-00699-w
Other
Large subglacial source of mercury from the southwestern margin of the Greenland Ice Sheet
Hawkings et al Nature Geoscience
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/s41561-021-00753-w
Long-term trends of the F2-region at mid-latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere
Sharan & Kumar Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics
DOI: 10.1016/j.jastp.2021.105683
The role of data variability and uncertainty in the probability of mitigating environmental impacts from cement and concrete
Miller Environmental Research Letters
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abe677
Decreasing trends in consecutive?day tornado events in the United States
Moore International Journal of Climatology
DOI: 10.1002/joc.7210
Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives
Society needs experts with climate change competencies – what is the role of higher education in atmospheric and Earth system sciences?
Riuttanen et al Tellus B: Chemical and Physical Meteorology
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1080/16000889.2021.1917862
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How is New Research assembled?
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