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It's the sun
Climate's changed before
There is no consensus
Surface temp is unreliable
Models are unreliable
It's cooling
Ice age predicted in the 70's
Al Gore got it wrong
We're heading into an ice age
CO2 lags temperature
View All Arguments...


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Antarctica is cooling/gaining ice

The skeptic argument...

The amount of ice surrounding Antarctica is now at the highest level ever measured for this time of the year, since satellites first began to monitor it almost 30 years ago. All of the IPCC’s models of Antarctica in the twenty-first century forecast a gain in ice, as a warmer surrounding ocean evaporates more water, which subsequently falls in the form of snow when it hits the continent. Other studies, such as Peter Doran’s in Nature in 2003, show actual cooling in recent decades. It’s simply too cold for rain in Antarctica, and it’ll stay that way for a very long time. The bottom line is that there is more ice than ever surrounding Antarctica (source: Patrick Michaels).

What the science says...

Antarctic cooling is a uniquely regional phenomenon. In fact, the case of Antartica cooling is a great case study on how the media and global warming skeptics seize upon a study and interpret it inappropriately. The original study observed regional cooling in east Antarctica. The hole in the ozone layer above the South Pole causes cooling in the stratosphere. This increased circular winds around the continent preventing warmer air from reaching east Antarctica and the Antarctic plateau. The flip side of this is the Antarctic Peninsula has "experienced some of the fastest warming on Earth, nearly 3°C over the last half-century".

While East Antartica is gaining ice due to increased precipitation, Antartica is overall losing ice. This is mostly due to melting in West Antarctica which recently featured the largest melting observed by satellites in the last 30 years. As well as melting, Antartic glaciers are accelerating further adding to sea level rise.

Further reading

Tamino compares and analyses the long term trends in sea ice data from the Northern and Southern Hemisphere in Sea Ice, North and South, Then and Now.

  1. I suppose that the volcanic activity that they discovered recently has nothing to do with this?
  2. Wondering Aloud at 01:36 AM on 1 April, 2008
    Another one of those issues the more you investigate the less convincing it becomes.
  3. "Computer models have predicted that energetic particles hitting the top of the atmosphere in polar regions may change temperatures by stimulating the production of nitrous oxides (NOx)."

    "NOx destroys ozone in catalytic reaction cycles; and when you change ozone in the stratosphere, that... can then feed down to surface temperatures."

    From an article by BBC News "More doubt on cosmic climate link By Richard Black, Environment correspondent, BBC News website, Vienna" under the subhead Local change
    [ Response: I did see that article earlier today. The section on Antarctica is interesting although the phenomena they're describing seems to be regional and shows no long term trends - it's a localised, short term effect. However, what did get my attention was the section on cosmic rays as I've actually been preparing a post on that very topic - cloud cover during Forbush events. This new study covers the same material using different data so I contacted the author this morning hoping to get more info. More on this soon, I hope. ]
  4. John
    I noticed the ozone portion because it rang a bell fro what I had read previously in Mackeys paper.
  5. OK smarties. If Antarctica is overall losing ice, then how do you explain the data?

    http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/current.area.south.jpg

    The Arctic doesn't seem to be doing so bad anymore, also:

    http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/current.area.jpg
    [ Response: Funny you should ask, the last few weeks, I've been preparing a series of posts on Antarctica and the Arctic. First one next week. Stay tuned... ]
  6. Second order skeptic at 22:45 PM on 24 June, 2008
    AnthonySG1: Your images are concerned with the ice _area_ . Ice _mass_ on the other hand is shrinking.
    http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.cfm?release=2008-010

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