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Comparing past climate change to recent global warming

What the science says...

Statistical analysis of the rate of warming over different periods find that warming from 1970 to 2001 is greater than the warming from both 1860 to 1880 and 1910 to 1940.

Climate Myth...

It warmed just as fast in 1860-1880 and 1910-1940

“In fact, the rate of warming from 1975-2001, at 0.16 °C per decade, was the fastest rate to be sustained for more than a decade in the 160-year record, but exactly the same rate occurred from 1860-1880 and again from 1910-1940, when we could not possibly have had anything to do with it.” (Christopher Monckton)

Let’s have a look at some warming rates of the periods of interest from several different temperature records:


Table 1: Rate of warming for given indices in °C/century.

First we can conclude that Monckton's statement that 1975-2001 was the fastest warming rate for longer than a decade is absolutely wrong as a much higher rate is demonstrated for 1975-2005 in row 5. Secondly, to compare the three periods in Table 2, the only index which covers that period is Hadley, making his 1.6°C per century number wrong for 1975-2001 as it is actually much higher at 1.78°C per century.

 

Based upon the evidence presented here, he cannot support his statement that 1860-1880 had a similar warming rate as it was demonstratively lower than the 1975-2001 warming rate and nearly half the 1975-2005 rate. Finally, regarding the 1910 to 1940 warm period, evidence presented here suggests that only 1 out of the 4 major indices indicates a rate of warming within 0.25°C per century and none within 0.2°C. His claim that the rates are similar is dubious at best.

Last updated on 31 January 2011 by robert way.

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Comments 26 to 50 out of 79:

  1. "I'm sorry, but several people now have very patiently explained the errs of your ways to you, yet you are not listening." No, I have not been answered. You just keep repeating the same arguments over and over again (e.g. that Greenland is not the whole world) and are not giving the issue appropriate thought.
  2. Albatross@19 I do not think that Adam is "misrepresenting Dr. Box." He is using Dr Box's research to come to a different conclusion than the Dr himself. Adam@20 "KR natural factors are indeed still present and can explain observed climate changes." Natural factors are still at work, no one would deny this. There seems to be great disagreement with your second assertion though. One paper by Soon is a good start to supporting your argument, but why is his dissenting opinion more credible than all the others he disagrees with?
  3. "The appropriate scientific response would be to question why there is an inconsistency or even if your perception of the inconsistency is even accurate. " So, once again, could you please explain to me why there is no correlation between CO2 and Greenland temperature variations. You do agree that there is no correlation with CO2, right? So therefore could you please explain to me how it is possible that CO2 is the driver of Greenland's climate despite the fact there is no correlation.
  4. Adam, Re blog posts, I concur, but to a point. Please explain why Soon's TSI data after 1960 contradict the reputable (and official TSI ) data. His paper falls to pieces right there.
  5. Adam#20: "the previous Greenland warming" In Soon's temperature graph shown by Adam#9, the temperature jumps by more than 1 degree in 1920. In the data available from Polyakov et al, this jump does not occur until the mid 1930s. Does this suggest that the surface temperature data for the early 20th century Arctic isn't all that reliable?
  6. "So, you are left with no theory, no explanation, nothing other than your desire for AGW to be wrong. " Rob Honeycutt, I have explained why Greenland and Arctic temperature variations are not man made. I do not think that anyone here, has properly answered my points. Yes, Greenland is not the whole world, but polar regions are especially important for detecting any effect caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Therefore, seeing that there is no correlation between Greenland temperature and co2, is not 'cherry picking' and is indeed valid as evidence against AGW.
  7. Adam - "...oceanic oscilations play a major role in Arctic climate. They most likely brought in warmer waters, which caused the previous Greenland warming and are most likely what caused the most recent Greenland warming." To which I will reply: Evidence? Do you have any evidence of such changes in Arctic circulation showing correlation to temperatures? There's certainly plenty of evidence for the various known forcings driving global temperatures, along with the Arctic amplification - you're asking for an unproven hypothesis with no evidence to supplant a well supported hypothesis that matches the data. I believe the term is "wishful thinking". If that's all you have, then you're not even hand-waving. As has been said here before - You're entitled to your own opinion - but not your own facts. -- "You do agree that there is no correlation with CO2, right?" Sigh - There's excellent correlation with known forcing factors, including CO2; your strawman argument against CO2 as the only factor is both repetitive and deeply incorrect. Your arguments are unsupported, incorrect, and generally empty of data, theory, or (in my opinion) content. Please read some of the references you have been pointed to.
  8. "Please explain why Soon's TSI data after 1960 contradict the reputable (and official TSI ) data. His paper falls to pieces right there." Albatross, first of all from 1960 to 1980 the correlation did indeed increase. I think it is fair to say that the correlation between the sun and the climate (supposedly) ends at around 1981, which is the time of the solar maximum. However, when you use tropspheric temperature data instead of solar data you can see that the correlation does indeed continue. As shown by the graph below, for the past 20 years there is a perfect correlation between cosmic rays and tropospheric temperature. Albatross, the link between the sun and climate did not end. http://icecap.us/images/uploads/SvensmarkPaper.pdf
  9. Adam "So, once again, could you please explain to me why there is no correlation between CO2 and Greenland temperature variations. You do agree that there is no correlation with CO2, right?" and "I have explained why Greenland and Arctic temperature variations are not man made." I do not believe you have adequately established or supported this position. No. If you are going to take a position contrary to the majority opinion then you have to provide a lot more evidence than you have.
  10. KR read this paper http://www.lanl.gov/source/orgs/ees/ees14/pdfs/09Chlylek.pdf " the Arctic temperature changes are highly correlated with the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) suggesting the Atlantic Ocean thermohaline circulation is linked to the Arctic temperature variability on a multi-decadal time scale." "The Atlantic Ocean thermohaline circulation multi-decadal variability is suggested as a major cause of Arctic temperature variation." The Arctic multidecadal oscilation can indeed explain the temperature changes observed in the Arctic. "Your arguments are unsupported, incorrect, and generally empty of data, theory, or (in my opinion) content. " KR I don't think you have actually read my comments. I clearly explained it in detail and provided peer reviewed studies.
  11. Adam#22: "the 2003 and 2010 spikes were just one year events, which quickly went back to normal straight after. Could you please explain how it could have been anthropogenic co2, which caused those two spikes," No one said those one year events were caused by CO2. "The temperature in Greenland for 1920-1940 didn't have many outlier temp anomalies, it stayed at roughly the same trend over those few decades. " That's just not true. There is in fact a 1.2 degree jump in 1919 (I just plotted the Polyakov data). If that's in error, your rapid 1930s warming is a thing of the past. Wouldn't a real skeptic question an entire conclusion that rests on the validity of a single data point?
  12. Anyway, this is getting pretty tiring. I'm leaving now. I'm going out tomorrow, so I probably won't be able to comment again until tomorrow evening. So long.
  13. Adam - Thanks for repeating the Chlylek link. Looking at their paper, it's quite evident that Arctic (and for that matter Greenland) temperatures follow the global temperature trends. Their statement that Arctic amplification is insufficient to explain the magnitude of such trends is a bit more iffy, however, bordering on odd. I would be interested in the Arctic expert's opinions on this. The AMO data is also quite interesting; given that the AMO appears to also track the temperature anomaly record, however, I would consider this a possible correlation to temperature (and changing wind patterns) as a first cause - otherwise you have to argue that the AMO is affecting global temperatures, including the Southern Hemisphere, which I quite frankly would have to see some strong evidence (and a plausible mechanism) for before accepting. Have you at least dropped the strawman argument about CO2 being the only driver of climate?
  14. 33, Adam, I love that graph, and that paper!!!! I love them!!! The caption for the graph, in particular referencing the lower graph where things match so very nicely between cosmic rays and tropospheric temperatures, says this:
    The lower panel shows the match achieved by removing El Niño, the North Atlantic Oscillation, volcanic aerosols, and also a linear trend (0.14 ± 0.4 K/Decade).
    This is great. Remove El Niño. Check! Remove North Atlantic Oscillation. Check! Remove volcanic aerosols. Check! Remove global warming. Check! Wait! Remove global warming? Yes. If you take global warming out of the picture, the match is perfect. They have basically proven for us that cosmic rays have nothing whatsoever to do with current warming. Does it have an influence on natural short term variations? Apparently (although I'm not so sure that these are people I trust, but since I could care less about short term variations, it doesn't matter much). But does it have any influence on global climate? Is there any attribution whatsoever for the current warming trend due to cosmic rays? They have proven that this answer is "no." [I also despise anyone who puts out a PDF of a paper and tries to make it look like a peer reviewed journal article, which this clearly is not. For shame.]
  15. @ KR Not an expert an the Arctic, but my read on Chylek2009 is this: The Arctic temps are heavily influenced by the AMO, which makes sense. The problem is, and perhaps Robert Way could provide some insight on this, that (as currently defined), the AMO is not properly detrended for the post-1975 warming. The detrending performed is linear, but the warming itself since 1975 is non-linear. Tamino made that observation here, that (under the linearly detrended AMO definition, the post-1975 increase reflected in the AMO is because of global warming. It is the residue of global warming. That being said, Chylek 2009 only says the rates of Arctic Amplification were greater in the earlier time frame than the later. It does not say that the earlier was warmer. Tamino also removes the cyclical exogenous factors from the temperature records to show this: My two cents. HTH. The Yooper
  16. Adam... "I have explained why Greenland and Arctic temperature variations are not man made." No, you have explained why you believe there is an inconsistency between the warming period in the early 20th century and the warming in the latter 20th century, making the wrong assumption that both had to be directly correlated with the increased concentrations of atmospheric CO2.
  17. Sphaerica... You also have to look at Fig 3 in Adam's Svensmark/Friis-Christensen PDF and then compare it to the same data at Wood For Trees.
  18. All, Re the dubious TSI data from Soon. Here is a graph by Kopp and lean (2011; both (eminent scientists in this field) that shows a distinct downward trend between 1979 and 2010: Caption: Contributions to the empirical model of temperature shown in Figure 1 are broken down here: El Niño Southern Oscillation (purple), volcanic eruptions (blue), anthropogenic effects (red), and solar irradiance (green). [Source] and compare those data with the SAT data: Caption: Global surface temperature from 1980 to 2010 has risen by 0.4 degrees Celsius (0.72 degrees Fahrenheit) according to Climate Research Unit measurements (black) and an empirical model (orange). (Courtesy Kopp and Lean), same source as above. Not surprisingly, Kopp and Lean conclude that: "Using this model, Lean estimates that solar variability produces about 0.1°C global warming during the 11-year solar cycle, but is not the main cause of global warming in the past three decades."
  19. 42, Rob, Wow. Okay, so this guy has a really, really deep bag of scientific "tricks." And the deniers are all up in arms about "hide the decline?" Sheesh. Adam, Sorry, but as a source, that one is downright pathetic. Please check your sources more carefully in the future. If you don't mind taking a bit of advice, usually I find it helpful to be skeptical about these sorts of things, read them carefully, and look into them in some detail. Otherwise you could find yourself falling for some very alarming scientific hoaxes.
  20. Okay I'm back. KR I have never claimed that CO2 is the only driver of climate change. Could you please point out where in my comments I said that? Sphaerica you are completely misunderstanding what the authors did in the paper I provided. The top graph is of tropspheric temperature compared with changes in cosmic rays. The radiosonde data shows a lot less warming over the past 30 years than the surface station data. The bottom graph is the removed effects of el nino, volcanoes and the NAO. The removal of the effects caused the slight warming trend to disappear. You completely misunderstood what they did. They didn't get rid of the warming for no reason. The removal of those effects (natural forces) simply effected the total trend after they were removed. Daniel Bailey, once again blog posts are not published. Tamino didn't really provide proper evidence that the AMO was the result of the warming. In Chylek's paper they theorised that Arctic temperature was caused by the AMO which makes much more sense. Albatross, once again the graph you showed is ignoring Svensmark's cosmic ray theory and using surface data. Cosmic rays can indeed still be the major cause of warming of the past three decades. Read Svensmark and Friis-Christenson's paper. See also here Sphaerica I think you're the one who needs to read papers more carefully, since you completely misunderstood what it did.
    Response: [DB] Tamino's graph is based on removing exogenous factors like volcanic eruption effects and cyclical things like the NAO or El Nino or the AMO (since oscillations have no NET effects). Tamino's comments showed that the changes reflected in the AMO IS the global warming signature BECAUSE the warming is non-linear. So a detrended AMO still has the global warming signal in it.
  21. Adam#45: "Cosmic rays can indeed still be the major cause of warming of the past three decades. " No, they cannot. See the thread 'Its cosmic rays'.
  22. muoncounter, read the paper and link I provided. The correlation only ends when you use surface station data. Cosmic rays still correlate with radiosonde temp data and ocean temp data. Read also the link I provided.
    Response: [Dikran Marsupial] Results that are only valid if you select the "right" dataset is what is known as "cherry picking". Results that hold true regardless of which dataset you use are described as "robust".
  23. Adam @45, "The radiosonde data shows a lot less warming over the past 30 years than the surface station data." That is incorrect. They in fact show a slightly higher rate of warming than some global SAT products. And the radiosonde data rate 2010 as the warmest year on record, warmer than 1998 even. Svensmark has a GCR hypothesis, hardly a fully fledged theory. I doubt very much that the paper you linked to demonstrates "Cosmic rays can indeed still be the major cause of warming of the past three decades". But I'll have a look. I do not understand why you insist on repeatedly making demonstrably false statements.
  24. Adam#47: "The correlation only ends when you use surface station data. Cosmic rays still correlate with radiosonde temp data and ocean temp data." And in your view, that is somehow valid? A correlation which doesn't fit a significant part of the data is no correlation at all. If you're getting your information from the same site that provided the graph you linked in #33, did you miss the obvious nonsense (see Sphaerica#39)associated with the lower graph? Your link in #45 is to motl's blog; that's not a credible source. See the 'its cosmic rays' thread before you go on touting Svensmark. Please stop claiming you've proved something simply because you've repeated it several times. One other poster tried that, resulting in a thread of over 800 comments.
  25. "Tamino's graph is based on removing exogenous factors like volcanic eruption effects and cyclical things like the NAO or El Nino or the AMO (since oscillations have no NET effects). " But once again Tamino's graph used surface station data. Satellite and Weather balloon data have been shown to be much more reliable. Albatross, the dataset you use is from NCDC. That isn't the one used in their paper. The radiosonde data used was HadAt2. Your graph doesn't really present the temperature anomalies clearly, but the graph I showed did. You will also see that weather balloon data, also matches up with the satellite data. http://img136.imageshack.us/img136/9021/hadat2rsstropics.png
    Response: [Dikran Marsupial] Cherry picking again.

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