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Can we fix global warming?

What the science says...

Select a level... Basic Intermediate Advanced
Scientific studies have determined that current technology is sufficient to reduce greenhouse gas emissions enough to avoid dangerous climate change.

Climate Myth...

It's too hard
"The fact is that there is no one in the world who can explain how we could cut our emissions by four fifths without shutting down virtually all our existing economy. What carries this even further into the higher realms of lunacy is that such a Quixotic gesture would do nothing to halt the world’s fast-rising CO2 emissions, already up 40 per cent since 1990. There is no way for us to prevent the world’s CO2 emissions from doubling by 2100" (Christopher Booker)

In order to avoid dangerous global warming, we need to reduce global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by about 50% by the year 2050.  Skeptics often make the argument that we simply don't have the technology necessary to reduce emissions this much, this quickly.

Pacala and Socolow (2004) investigated this claim by examining the various technologies available to reduce GHG emissions.  Every technology they examined "has passed beyond the laboratory bench and demonstration project; many are already implemented somewhere at full industrial scale."  The study used the concept of a "stabilization wedge", in which "a wedge represents an activity that reduces emissions to the atmosphere by a certain amount. The study identifies 15 current options which could be scaled up to produce at least one wedge:

  1. Improved fuel economy

  2. Reduced reliance on cars

  3. More efficient buildings

  4. Improved power plant efficiency

  5. Substituting natural gas for coal

  6. Storage of carbon captured in power plants

  7. Storage of carbon captured in hydrogen plants

  8. Storage of carbon captured in synthetic fuels plants

  9. Nuclear power

  10. Wind power

  11. Solar photovoltaic power

  12. Renewable hydrogen

  13. Biofuels

  14. Forest management

  15. Agricultural soils management

This is not an exhaustive list, and there are other possible wedges, such as other renewable energy technologies they did not consider.   The study notes that "Every one of these options is already implemented at an industrial scale and could be scaled up further over 50 years to provide at least one wedge."  Implementing somewhere between 7 and 14 wedges would be necessary to avoid dangerous climate change.

The bottom line is that while achieving the necessary GHG emissions reductions and stabilization wedges will be difficult, it is possible.  And there are many solutions and combinations of wedges to choose from.

Last updated on 8 November 2010 by dana1981.

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Comments

Comments 1 to 45:

  1. I would be interested to see some update of this rebuttal to take into account the growing belief that we need to get down to 350ppm CO2 (or even 350ppm CO2e) to prevent dangerous climate change. thanks.
    Response: [JC] This issue is addressed in Why it's urgent we act now on climate change.
  2. I'm all for a carbon tax but how do we stop companies from trying to protect their profit margins by passing the burden of the tax on to the consumer or by sacking their workers? My guess would be that if we had more government run businesses, who were on board with looking after the public interest, they could undercut the prices of the privately owned companies if they tried to pass the burden of the carbon tax on to the consumer, thus ensuring that the majority of the carbon tax would come out of their profit, as it should.
  3. Continuing reply to Gilles' comment here.

    "This knowledge is not difficult to get."

    I asked how you knew that reducing fossil fuel use more destructive to hundreds of millions of people than global warming; you provided the above retort with a link to the World Bank's page on China's rural development.

    The linked page does not mention fossil fuels at all; rather, it speaks of changing land use policy, agricultural modernization and natural resource management. In addition, note this:
    Bank-funded projects have also increased forest plantation areas by hundreds of thousands of hectares, and improved the State Forestry Administration’s and provincial forest bureaus’ capacity to plan, develop, manage and protect forest resources. Planning is also underway for China’s first use of bio-carbon funds sequestering carbon through forest plantations ... -- emphasis added

    The reference you provide thus demonstrates an instance of exactly the sort of action you feel is unnecessary. So your point remains unsubstantiated; your argument weakened by your own evidence.

    Once again illustrating the poverty of the denialist position, wherein all arguments devolve to some variant of 'I think' or 'Everyone knows' or 'No, its not.'
  4. Muoncounter : if you really think that the influence of fossil fuel consumption on the standard of living is less obvious than that of the average temperature, I'm afraid I can't argue further with you. We are obviously not living on the same planet.
  5. Gilles:
    According to this Wiki page almost all European countries and Hong Kong produce about 25% of the CO2 per capita as the USA. My observation is that their living standards are about the same as the USA. Can you provide data to support your extraordinary claim of standard of living depending on fossil fuel consumption, or would you rather continue to assert this claim without data? Obviously it is possible to live well with 25% of USA emissions, Europe is doing it now. You have provided little or no data to support your claims. Why should I believe your hand waving?
  6. Gilles,

    "if you really think that the influence of fossil fuel consumption on the standard of living is less obvious... "

    I most certainly did not say that; I simply said that your attempt at substantiating your point failed dismally. It would be far more beneficial for the conversation at large if you tempered your opinions with actual facts. That is really what this website is all about. Facts can be discussed and evaluated; opinions just hang in the breeze.
  7. It's a bit of misdirection at work.

    What makes for a high standard of living is not ready access to fossil fuels. It's ready access to energy.

    If that energy just happens to come from, say, solar / wind / hydro / nuclear / biofuel sources, then, well, what do you know, the standard of living is still the same!

    I also agree with michael sweet's comment at #5: many developed economies are running quite nicely with far lower carbon intensity that the US or Australia.
    But, no, it's all about "I've got a right to drive the kids to school in a two-and-a-half-tonne SUV that gets 12 miles to the gallon!"
    The low-hanging fruit is definitely points 1 and 3 in the article above. The cost is minimal, but the savings in terms of energy are quite substantial!

    By "minimal cost", I really do mean minimal, e.g. with far stricter fuel efficiency requirements on new vehicles, total fuel consumption would drop significantly as older vehicles were replaced. What would the cost be? Approximately zero, financially, but certainly a lot of complaining from people who like to drive huge cars with thirsty engines...
    What about better insulation of buildings? Well, there are plenty of case studies pointing out that this is a net positive over the longer term, as you generally make back more than the cost of the insulation in terms of lower energy bills. This is only going to become more so as electricity and gas prices continue to rise.
  8. "Gilles:
    According to this Wiki page almost all European countries and Hong Kong produce about 25% of the CO2 per capita as the USA. My observation is that their living standards are about the same as the USA"

    according to meteorological data people in Hong Kong live in a average temperature of 23 °C ( 73 °F) but in New York city, it's only 12 °C (55°F). So I conclude that temperature has also no effect on the standard of living.

    Please use the SAME methodology to compare the influence of FF and the influence of GW - the discussion will be more scientific.


    bern :
    "It's a bit of misdirection at work.What makes for a high standard of living is not ready access to fossil fuels. It's ready access to energy."

    no, it is access to cheap and convenient energy and all energies are not equivalent. Carbon is used to reduce chemically oxides, for instance, much cheaper than electricity. oil is a liquid - much more convenient for transportation.

    the other point of my argumentation is persistently ignored : even if you raise the EFFICIENCY of the use of FF (diminish the energy intensity), there is no way to prevent people from offsetting this efficiency by an INCREASE in the numbers of goods - for instance more EV would produce MORE CO2 than few thermal engines - and yes, there is plenty of potential demand for a western life of style - just 5 billions of people are more or less excluded from this way of life, and they will be 8 or 9 in 50 years. And there is no moral justification - or even practical possibility to let them eventually use all FF we have spared - for CO2, it won't matter WHO has produced it !
  9. Mucounter : if you want data, you can go to the excellent site gapminder

    http://www.gapminder.org/world/

    now you can choose for x-axis : CO2 production per capita (log scale)
    and for y-axis : any wealth indicator you want (GDP, life expectancy, literacy, and so on...)

    unfortunately they don't have "average temperature" in their data - so I can't check the influence of average temperature on the living standard.
  10. Giles@8 It may (or may not) be true that "temperature has no effect on the standard of living", but either way it misses the point that the major problem with climate change is the change. Our civilizations, and especially our agricultural practices, are optimised to the particular climate in which they have developed. Any change in our way of life and especially our agricultural practices, will involve adaption, which has a cost. Us in the first world (that are primarily responsible for the problem) can cope with this adaption without great suffering as we have the resources; the same is not the case for the third world, where they don't have the resources to adapt, and where argriculture is often quite marginal to begin with. The relationship between temperature and standard of living is a red herring.
  11. Haha, of course we could fix global warming. Technically. The thing is, we could technically also fix poverty, starvation and aids.
    In this case, what really matters, isn't what the climate science says, but what the social sciences say.
  12. batvette "Most humans make their livelihood engaged in one form of human industrial activity or another. Telling people they have to stop living, and it really is that brutally simple, to save the earth... how do you think they'll take that?"

    Just read the advanced version of this post. You'll notice that it requires quite a bit of ' industrial activity' to achieve the aims.

    We don't have to stop living, we have to change the way we do things - mostly the same things. We do not have to don sackcloth and live in caves gnawing on uncooked tubers. We can live in carbon neutral homes and work in carbon neutral businesses producing carbon neutral goods or services. With any luck some of those 'neutral' activities will actually be carbon negative - a great boon.

    What's 'not living' about a properly insulated home serviced by solar PV and an electric powered car- which handily acts as a battery for a distributed power grid?

    Sure we should be less wasteful with food and no-one needs 100 pairs of shoes nor houses the current size built in Australia. The advertising industry need not die either, they just advertise quality and improved products and lifestyle rather than foolish acquisition of more and more pointless stuff.

    This 'telling people they have to stop living' silliness is the very worst kind of alarmism.
  13. Sorry I omitted this. batvette's full comment can be found over at "Climategate conspiracy"
  14. As a european who lived in the US for a while, this is one of the first things I noticed, the way they use energy and resources in general. In a few words, they just don't care, they use them as if they are infinite and cheap. Europe is just a bit better, or less bad if you wish. Still, we consume about half as the average american.
    Then, if by "stop living" batvette means "stop living the way we do", i.e. wasting huge amounts of energy and resources, I agree. I dare to ask americans in first place, but not just them of course, to stop wasting, a first easy and reasonable step. We're heading to the open ocean with not enough fuel and food supplies, it's not going to be safe nor pleasant.
  15. We should probably wave goodbye to Ray Anderson of Interface, who passed away recently. I'm not exactly pro-capitalist, but Ray's story is uplifting anyway. His death is rather the opposite.
  16. There are no silver bullets, there is no one solution that will mitigate all CO2 and/or heat effects but there are several solutions for 1/4 to 1/3 of the problem like soil sequestration, CCS, carbon tax and rebate, alternatives, and yet-to-be-designed ways to pump heat to the upper atmosphere (I'm an engineer so that's generally how I would approach it). Some of these policies imply a need for cap and trade, but that may be mitigated by the fact that we subsidize traditional farming already and would change that to techniques like this: http://epsc413.wustl.edu/Lal2004_Geoderma.pdf
  17. Sphaerica, your comment here points out that a single solution can't solve the entire problem. But as I point out above, there are no silver bullets, we will need lots of solutions.

    Your comment about it being much easier to burn the fossil fuels than capturing the emissions is very valid. Your tree growing example that I linked above points out that difficulty using photosynthesis as the primary solution. But we will undoubtedly have technology for that as well, it's only a matter of time. Nano-Engineered Bioconstructs Perform Photosynthesis Faster Than Nature Does
  18. 17, Eric,

    Certainly, agreed, multiple incremental solutions will be needed.

    My point in the redwood analogy is to demonstrate the scope of the problem. That's what I'm afraid you don't appreciate. You're waving future technology like a magic wand that will make everything just go away in the nick of time, when I don't think the technology will ever exist to restore the balance.

    The problem is quite simply too large for that. We have spent a hundred years running uncounted millions of motors, small to large, that create energy by burning carbon and emitting CO2.

    The reverse process will at best require uncounted millions of filters, running for a hundred years, using energy from some unknown source simply to extract CO2 from the atmosphere and somehow sequester it so it can't get out again.

    I just don't see it happening. Ever.
  19. The technology to sequester will be there, just a modest amount of government research funding and extensive cross-fertilization from commercial technology (e.g. nano-tech) will make it happen. What we will lack is the economics to perform the sequestering on a large scale anything close to the scale of the automobile and other fossil fuel burners. For that reason I don't see it happening either. But I do see a variety of things happening that will all add up.

    If, for example, we can build a space elevator or something like that, we can also build large chimneys to suck excess heat into space. The updrafts created in the chimney would provide alternative energy. That's just one idea off the top of my head.
  20. 19, Eric (skeptic),

    You are fooling yourself.

    No chance. None.
  21. I think if the feedbacks played nice we'd more or less get away with this slowly coalescing slipshod approach to tackling climate change that we've seen over the past 25 yrs.

    If going to +2-2.5 triggers a substantial methane release or the collapse of the amazon basin we may find ourselves up fifth street without a camel.
  22. michael sweet, I appreciate your feedback in the other threads on ocean warning and developing economies. The developing economies do not need to build cars nor completely convert their economies from agriculture, but they can move a step up from subsistence agriculture and add considerable robustness to environmental catastrophe. Thailand is a good example of bouncing back after their floods. Industry can also include business process outsourcing that is non-energy-intensive.

    CATO published a well-balanced article http://www.cato.org/pubs/pas/pa659.pdf pointing out some of the drawbacks and benefits to globalization. One drawback is rising wage inequality (that may be a persistent feature of capitalism). The main benefit is economic robustness which helps to tackle present and future problems including problems resulting from warming, especially in developing countries.
  23. Eric:
    the CATO Institute is a right wing canned research foundation owned by the Koch brothers. You need to start citing peer reviewed articles, not Koch propaganda. I can see why you are so uninformed about so many different subjects.

    As far as developing economies (which are OT on this thread), if there is widespread drought caused by AGW there will be widespread disruption and starvation. Try to find some reliable sources to refer to instead of canned research.
  24. I work with green action groups. In my mind, there are pervasive forms of denial common amongst such groups that almost approach the level of dangerous attitude as in those who deny global warming;

    1. Acting locally (My friends and I all have sustainable homes, we eat locally, we recycle, and drive hybrids) will be enough.  Not even close to being right. What about folks living in high rises in Chicago in the wintertime?

    2. The  Hubbard's Peak driven scarcity of fossil fuels will force reform. Old fashioned point of view. We  now know we have enough readily available fossil fuels to fry the planet.

  25. @Chris,

    It depends upon how a carbon tax is done. First, it needs to be universal, so all carbon energy inputs are taxed, including fertilizer, biofuels, ethanol, plastics manufacturing, and imports from overseas containing carbon. Second, the proceeds of the tax need to be refunded. The tax proposed by Professor James Hansen and submitted as legislation in the last session of Congress by Representative Pete Stark of California would refund all of the collected carbon tax to households using the same mechanism that was used to issue stimulus checks during the financial crisis of 2007-2008. The refund would be per-person listed on federal income tax returns in the household. 

    This would put a price on carbon wherever it came into the United States economy, and then, since, as you say, companies would pass the costs on to people, it would refund these costs to them in proportion to the average use of carbon.  If a household reduced its overall consumption of carbon by simply buying the cheaper products in the new carbon-penalized marketplace, not only would their purchases be offset, they could earn money from the deal.

    I don't like cap-and-trade.  I think it gives companies too much wiggle room to cheat. 

    The point of the carbon tax is to internalize the actual costs of carbon consumption in prices on the street. So, sure, gasoline would go up in price, concrete would go up in price, food grown with oil-sourced fertilizer would go up in price, and those silly plastic bottles of water would go up in price because the plastic they are packaged in would be taxed.  But competing products which did not use these sources would not go up in price.  People would buy more economical cars because they  would be cheaper to drive. And they would probably buy less overall, build less (wood would go up in price, too), and generally consume less.

    The marketplace would figure the relative disincentive into its workings, and would be stimulated to produce carbon-free or minimal carbon products to get people to buy them.  The transition would probably be pretty quick, and would be easier because most carbon taxes are introduced over a period of time.

    Food prices are going to go up a lot because of climate change.  Insurance premiums are going to go up.  And companies are eventually going to have to shut down during summers in places because they simply cannot operate. 

     

  26. I've just read two articles about humanity's future problems. Now they aren't journal articles, but the author (1) Albert Bartlett has written many peer reviewed articles on over population and (2) Andrew Charlton, is an academic

    To a first approximation Bartlett states that 'the magnitude of the effect of humans in producing global climate change is proportional to the product of the size of the global population P and the average percapita annual consumption of resources, A
    the total annual consumption of resources (tons per year). 

    He argues that we must reduce both P and A simultaneously and rapidly throughout the world, and that there is no such thing as sustainable growth (the way we generally define it that is).

    The second author I just read, was a quartily essary by Andrew Charlton (2), an advisor to the Australian Government at the Copenhagen Summit. He basically makes the case that as there are 1 billion rich people and 6 billion poor people. He quotes Saul Griffith, who in his study found that in order to reach the 2 degree mark would require the roll out of 13 Terrawatts globally over the nest 25 years.

    To put that in perspective 2 terawatts of solar PVs, he calculates would reuire installing 100 square metres of solar cells every second for the next 25 years or 77,700km² of mirrors. (Tasmania is 68,401km²).

    Basically, current technology cannot cut it. 

    Forgive my long post, but the question is, shouldn't the issue of population be looked at as cause in part of emissions? I have met my fair share of 'Libertarian' people who actually don't even believe there is such a thing as overpopulation. 

    And, am I correct in assuming we need a WW2 scale change in economies to actually achieve any emission reductions?

    Is this something SkS could look out?

    The only way I see the way across the line is engaging with developing nations more than ever helping them get access to cheap clean energy.

    (1) http://albartlett.org/articles/art_meaning_of_sustainability_2012mar20.pdf

    (2) http://www.quarterlyessay.com/issue/man-made-world-choosing-between-progress-and-planet   (*)

    (*) a free sample can be found on Google Books

     

     

  27. yocta @26:

    1)  Bartlett's equation excludes an important variable, I, or the Emissions Intensity of production.  Total emissions are equal to Population times per capita production times the emissions for a given level of production (P x A x I).  Given suitable changes in these values, the product can fall even though some values continue to rise.  In particular, if I falls towards zero, P x A can increase arbitrarilly consistent with a net decline in emissions. There are other constraints on population and productivity such that it is likely that we need to limit population growth and growth in per capita productivity (and hence consumption) cannot be very large; but a determination to reduce GHG emissions in no way commits us to reducing either.

    2) Charlton's argument simply tries to impress you with large numbers without context.  In context, 77 thousand km2 of solar panels, or 77 billion square meters of solar panels can be installed by each member of the current population installing 77.7 square meters of solar panels over a period of 25 years.  Frankly, I could knock of my 77.7 square meters in a week.

    To put that into more context, PV installation per annum is more than doubling world wide every year.  Lets assume that falls of to an average effective growth of installations to 30% over 25 years.  In that case, in the 25th year, 22.6 terrawatts will be installed per annum.

    3)  On current evidence it will not require a WW2 change in economies to combat climate change.  In fact, if we get serious about it, the cost is likely to be about 1% of GDP, ie, significantly less than the US' peace time military budget.  

  28. Tom Curtis @27:
    Thanks for the reply.

    A lot to think about. I would agree that looking more into the numbers of things is important, however the 77.7 square metres per week I feel is quite significant. Also that will only account for 2tW. There would be another 13tW to go.

    According to the International Energy Outlook [1] the future of energy has it growing by ~50% by the year 2035. Projected oil use increases. Projected fracking from natural gas reservoirs also increases.

    More of a comment really, but I don't share your optimism that it would only cost 1% of the US GDP. There are so many countries with their own competing interests, and, if history shows Economy always beats the Environment.  Coal usage [2] shows absolutely no sign of slowing down, especially in the developing world.

    If the effects from Cook et al., (2013)  recent study still shows from the usual crowds is denial, denial, denial. The often misquoted Daniel Botkin on how it will take a natural disaster or two to get people really talking, Results from the Yale Climate Change Communication Project [3] showing that a cold season is enough for people to think Climate Change is not happening, again reinforces this view.

    World population and energy use per person I think will be the elephant in the room. I would agree that Bartlett's equation does exclude the Emissions Intensity. Thankyou for that. 

    I am still staggered by the level of denial I meet on any news article, blog, or YouTube video of people still not understanding anything. 

    This reads more of a rant than anything constructive. I wish I could share your optimism. Myself I work in the energy sector trying to green things (or at least light brown) them up but at times I feel like Sisyphus. If you or anyone could direct me to any readiing material that can show a more optimisic world view I would be very appreciative.

    [1] http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo/

    [2] http://www.eia.gov/oiaf/aeo/tablebrowser/#release=IEO2011&subject=0-IEO2011&table=7-IEO2011&region=0-0&cases=Reference-0504a_1630

    [3] http://environment.yale.edu/climate-communication/article/Climate-Beliefs-April-2013

  29. I would like to get you guys' opinions on this: It seems it is going to spawn a new meme that goes something like, "NAS says renewable subsidies don't work!"

    http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2013/07/18/billions-spent-in-obama-climate-plan-may-be-virtually-useless-study-suggests/#ixzz2ZiIY1MD0

  30. Well I am not a fan of any kind of subsidy. Forget subsidies renewable whatever, but more importantly stop subsidizing FF. However, seeing as the link is Fox News and headline looks like it meant to be attack on government, I'd say read the actual report instead. The substantial conclusion of that report was that "Finally, many studies have found that the most reliable and efficient way to achieve given climate-change objectives is to use direct tax or regulatory policies that create a market price for CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions" . Maybe I missed that bit in the Fox take on that? I would strongly agree and I hope after reading the report that Fox readers would urge your president to implement that final recommendation.

  31. davidnewell at 13:13 PM on 29 May, 2014
    As more and more evidence accumulates in regard to the looming catastrophe, more serious consideration may be given to ways to counter at least the rate of increase, so that more time is available to employ other methods, and educate "the masses".

    Somewhere here someone took some "shots" at the technique found at

    WWW.EarthThrive.Net,

    mumbling a dismissive comment relating to the amount of CO2 dissolved in the Gulf Stream, or something.. Totally non-bearing on the proposal.

    ===============

    I propose to defend the matter, thru simplicity.l. Many here may find "fault",

    but it's hard to argue against this..

    =========================

    I propose a "new measurement" of alkalinity.
    Maybe it's NOT new, but it's new to me, and facile for raising my point.

    Total Alkalinity, volume, (vs. CO2) = volume of pure CO2 adsorbed / volume of solid substrate

    Abbreviated TA(sub)v or TAv, it can be in any dimensional system,
    as long as they are "in common". ( of course)

    My laboratory measurements were in CC.

    Ranges of TAv for surface alkali soils ranged between about 2 1/2 to over 3.

    (there are speculative reasons to think that lower levels will be more reactive..)

    I presently cannot find this (following) calculation, so anyone of interest can do so.

    Given the elongated inverted pyramid approximation of (say) the Black Lake Desert,

    which is about 25 miles long by 10 miles wide..

    Assume that it is a rectangular box 1 mile deep.

    Given a conservative TAv of 2.5, what is the weight of CO2 in tonnes possible if all the material was reacted.???????

    After that is derived, then we can see if further consideration of the other objections may be warranted.

    ==============

    Lets see: 22.4 liters^ of CO2 = 1 mole wt of CO2, in grams, at STP.

    formula wt = 44.grams/ mole

    ======================

    According to my trusty HP-55, which is still running after all these years,

    under consideration is 25X10X1, which is 250 cu miles of "dirt",

    which can ultimately sequester (with a TAv of 2.5), 625 cu miles of CO2.

    1 cubic mile =4.16818183 × 10^15 cubic centimeters
    625 " = 2.605113641 x 10 ^18 "
    or 2.605113641 x 10 ^15 liters.

    or (changing decimal pt) 26.05113641 x 10 ^17 liters,
    which, when divided by 22.4 liters, = 1.2 X 10^17 moles of CO2,
    or, multiplying by the mole weight of CO2, 44,
    equals ~5 X 10 ^ 18 grams ,
    or 5 X 10^12 tonnes.

    Anyone who used an HP55 in college is old as the hills,
    OVER the hill,
    and probably missing a screw, as well..

    Please point out my errors, other than those which are simple approximations.

    =======================

    All that is needed, urgently, is to employ a technique
    which reduces the rate of increase in circulating CO2,
    while "other measures" take effect. If we can take 5 billion tonnes
    OUT of the air, per year, we "MIGHT" have a chance.

    Pumping costs be damned!
    AT the very LEAST civilization is "under threat" by our combined ignorance.
    (This "rant" is more "refined" at www.EarthThrive.net, so I'l discontinue it,
    here..)

    For far less than Gov Moonbeam's favorite projects of continuing stupidity,
    ie the "twin tunnels" under the Delta, and/or the "Train to Nowhere",
    we could implement this plan,
    AND
    (side issue)
    produce a hell of a lot of clouds going dowwind.

    It may be noted that many of the playas (the above is just an example, although one of the larger playas, to be sure..) are "saline" in nature, and are "wet" at some depth under the surface. Maintaining conditions for bicarbonate stability (dampness) is not difficult.
    Thank you for your time.

    David Newell

    =================

  32. Perhaps someone would deign to advise my questing mind as to why it is that discourse about this possible (at least partial) answer to the CO2 problem cannot be elicited?

    Yes, pumping ocean water over a 6,000 foot "head" is far from trivial: but "It's all downhill from there.." 

    thank you.

  33. Interesting idea. The size of the deep ocean reservoir is big enough that it could buy us a few decades.

    Probably the cheapest method of doing it would be by heating deep ocean water to make it rise rather than pumping e.g. by dumping thousands of unshielded breeder reactor cores off the side of a ship.

    How many would it take? No idea, but my first wild-assed guess is that it is going to be at least thousands of times the power output of the human race.

  34. David Newell, response here.

  35. Kevin C @33, pumping deep ocean water to the surface will in fact draw down excess CO2, but only by limiting the extent to which the ocean will further draw down CO2 once we stop pumping CO2 into the atmosphere.  It does rapidly now what the ocean will do gradually over the next several hundred years.  That may be a net gain overall.  However, equilibriating the deep ocean will only draw CO2 concentrations down to 25-30% of total emissions (Archer), or to 45 to 55% of the net increase to a given date.  I have severe doubts as to how economical this method of "carbon sequestration" would be.  Essentially you need to produce enough waste heat to generate current flows several times larger than that of the overturning circulation to be effective.

  36. As a general observation about sequestration technologies, it is important to ensure that the perfect doesn't become the enemy of the good. Sequestration techniques don't need to provide 'permanent' storage. Just storage for long enough to blunt the sharp edge of the impacts and allow slower natural sequestration methods to work.

    As with all these things it comes down to scale and energy. What scale of infrastructure do we need and how much energy will it take?

    Storing carbon as CO2 in something like Carbon Capture & Storage schemes requires huge infrastructure and some energy but at least we don't need the energy involved in changing the chemistry of what we are storing.

    Other approaches might convert CO2 into some more inert form such as carbonate rocks or something giving potentially better sequestration but essentially there is a huge energy cost for the chemistry involved. This would be at least partially reversing the energetics of the original combustion of the fossil fuels.

    As a general principal we should strive to harness the natural energy flows available within the climate system itself to aid us in this.

    One area that I have always thought was ripe for some 'bright spark in a white lab coat' was how to kill two birds with one stone.

    A major form of geoengineering being considered is injecting aerosols into the atmosphere to provide artificial cooling - there are companies looking at how to do this injection right now.

    This opens up a possibility. Vast quantities of extremely small particles of 'something' injected into the air. So an absolutely enormous surface area available for a potential chemical reaction 'of some sort'. The CO2 we want to remove is located right next-door to these particles.

    And some really nifty other resources that could contribute to some clever chemical reactions - Hydrogen, Oxygen, Nitrogen.

    And the secret ingredient - energy - to drive any reactions. Its called sunlight. Really there is a wonderful chemical factory up there waiting for us to employ it.

    This chemistry needs to do several things:

    • Capture carbon in a form that can be returned to the surface, probably in precipitation and ultimately drained to the ocean.
    • Be sufficiently chemically stable that it doesn't re-enter the short-term carbon-cycle and just get outgassed from the ocean again. It needs to stay sequestered from the carbon cycle for many decades if not a  century or two.
    • It cannot be (unduly) damaging to the environment, including contributing to Ocean Acidification. No point sequestering carbon if it kills off forests, pteropods or moles for example.
    • It cannot be (unduly) damaging to human health. A carbon sequestration technique that increased deaths from Asthma 100 fold for example is probably a non-starter.

    The basic chemistry of CO2/H2O -> Carbonic Acid -> Weathering cycle -> Carbonates seems a simplistic approach to this that probably doesn't work or someone would have thought of it already.

    But surely there is some other answer in the chemists toolbox. After all this is carbon we are talking about. I.e, Organic Chemistry, i.e. gazillions of compounds and reactions.

    The surface area of any volume of aerosols that we inject into the atmosphere constitutes a vast and precious resource.

    But I'm no chemist so I have no idea what this chemistry might be. :-(

  37. I don't know how mods have not yet lost patience with Jetfuel. I read only the first few lines of this last post and already found "an article that I read" without reference to said article. That's followed by rethoric so pityful it's normally found in electoral bullsh&$t fests: "sequestration killing jobs by the thousands." Really? Where is the evidence that carbon sequestration (a method not widely implemented on an industrial scale) is "killing" jobs by the thousands? I did not even bother reading the rest, the value to be expected of it was clearly announced by the opening statements. I'm underwhelmed.

    Response:

    [PS] Indeed. jetfuel continues with sloganeering, posting misinformation and continuing to state conclusion based on cherry-pciking despite this being pointed out. Jetfuel has shown no interest in engaging with science when commentators have pointed out issues out. Continued violations of comments policy have been noted.

  38. jetfuel.

    Please note that posting comments here at SkS is a privilege, not a right. This privilege can and will be rescinded if the posting individual continues to treat adherence to the Comments Policy as optional, rather than the mandatory condition of participating in this online forum.

    Moderating this site is a tiresome chore, particularly when commentators repeatedly submit offensive or off-topic posts. We really appreciate people's cooperation in abiding by the Comments Policy, which is largely responsible for the quality of this site.

    Finally, please understand that moderation policies are not open for discussion. If you find yourself incapable of abiding by these common set of rules that everyone else observes, then a change of venues is in the offing.

    Please take the time to review the policy and ensure future comments are in full compliance with it. Thanks for your understanding and compliance in this matter.

     

  39. It may be noted that the dialogue in regard to the premise I have advanced above has been moved to

    http://www.skepticalscience.com/2013-SkS-Weekly-News-Roundup_52.html#105062

    ================

    Perhaps I will become facile at making shorter hyperlink  tags, as Tom Curtis has mastered.  But we do what we can, right?

    Response:

    [JH] Your lenghty post addressed to Tom Curtis was deleted because it was argumentative and nothing more than a thinly disguised infomerical for your website. In the past you have made similar posts and they have been deleted. If you continue to make posts of this nature, they too will be deleted. You will also forefeit your privilege of posting on this site.   

  40.  

    Chart from epa.gov.

    From Scientific American: "The researchers found that previous cost and efficiency estimates for air capture from entrepreneurs and scientists were far too optimistic. Extracting carbon dioxide from the air would likely cost more than $1,000 per ton, compared to $50 to $100 per ton from a system installed in a chimney. "We're not saying it's infeasible to take CO2 out of the air; we're asking if this is an economic way to mitigate climate change, and here we're very clear it's not," said Herzog."

     

    Response:

    [PS] Chart removed as it was breaking page-formatting. Please post a link to a chart and not a data url. This helps people see it's context as well. See the instructions on embedding images at the bottom of the comments policy.

    Furthermore, air-capture is something of a wild idea, and the CO2 sequestration referred to in the article is in-chimney type (cost $50-100 per tonne - expensive but then so is climate change) so your posting is close to offtopic.

  41. With the avg American causing 19.3 tonnes CO2 per capita in 2007. Even $100 per ton is likely to cause huge negative consequences.

    Response:

    [PS] The article posits 15 possible wedges with varying degrees of feasibility for that could be explored to reduce carbon. You seemed to zeroed on just one of them and ignored any interactions as well as naive economic model. (All spending one sector is total loss to all other sectors). If you are not interested in serious discussion, then please find somewhere else for your entertainment.

  42. Or, jetfuel... It might likely cause huge positive consequenses. Like, we might start taking a critical issue seriously, as we should be.

    I would note that, here in California, it only took a 10 cent fee on disposable bags to get everyone (as in nearly 100%) to switch to reusable grocery bags. I think it will take far less than $100/ton to substantially change consumer behaviour.

  43. I saw the chart that had to be removed. It was a mere time series of CO2 emissions for the US, from the EPA. It had no relation whatsoever with the Scientific American blurb cited below it. Neither that chart nor the Scientific American piece comes anywhere close to be evidence that carbon capture is "killing jobs" by the thousands; the killing jobs cite (in the present tense) is from Jetfuel. First he tried to argue that carbon was capture was currently adversely impacting the economy, probably based on his mistaken assumption that capture out of the air was doing that. Then he realized that neither was applicable and now is trying to argue that, if implemented, at the cost mentioned above, on site capture will have "huge negative consequences." Jetfuel's discussion techniques are duly noted.

    People's perception of risks, benefit, effort are way too removed from reality and colored by their emotional attachment to ideology or other things. Economics doesn't help much. Few economists warned against the huge negative consequences of bad financial risk management in 2006 and 2007 and they were ignored anyway. Will the consequences of increasing the price of a ton of carbon by $50 or 100 be as bad as the financial fiasco of these years? Would the negative consequences of capturing carbon be as bad as having the New York metro flooded by seawater again? On a somewhat regular basis? How about all the other negative consequences of sea level rise? And that's just one aspect of warming. <Snip>

    If one wants to argue about carbon capture, he should look at the thermodynamics of it, that's where one can make the point that it makes little sense. Considering the level of Jeftuel's posting so far, I doubt there will be a cogent argument on that terrain.

    This thread is about the "it's too hard" argument. That argument is by nature completely stupid. One way or another, there is no long term future whatsoever for humanity that does not involve the complete eradication of widespread, industrial scale, use of fossil fuels. It's really that simple. That fact is inescapable. 

    It's much more comfortable for many to imagine that, somehow, that eradication is not something that will concern them in their lifetime. Anyone below the age of 40 is very likely to be concerned by that transition, however, whether they like it or not. It will start with oil, of which there will not be enough to have all of the Western World, China and India fly around and play with automobiles as we currently know them. This realization will not take half a century. Wake up and smell the Jetfuel while there is still plenty to go around. It won't last forever. It may not even last your lifetime.

    Response:

    [PS] please avoid personal attacks.

  44. Jet Fuel @40 cites figures showing costs for carbon capture and storage at site of emission of $50 to $100 per tonne.  In 2011, US carbon intensity was 0.413 Tonnes of Carbon Dioxide per $1000 GDP.  It has likely fallen further since.  However, using this figure we can calculate that eliminating all emissions by at site carbon capture and storage (CCS) would cost 2.065 to 4.13% of GDP.  That is, it would be the equivalent of losing 1 to 2 years of average economic growth.  Phased in over 20 years, the cost would not be detectable against normal annual fluctuations in economic growth.

    In some respects, this is an upper bound on the cost of the complete elimination of emissions from the US.  That is because there are many cheaper ways of eliminating CO2 emissions, including switching to lower emitting fuels (coal -> gas), switching to renewable or nuclear power, and more deliberate steps to improve energy efficiency and reduce power usage.

    Of course this calculation falsely assumes that transport emissions can be eliminated at the same cost as power emissions.  There would be an additional cost to eliminate transport emissions either by converting to electric vehicles, biofuels, or by the reliance on the less efficient CCS from the open air.  As transport only represents 28% of US emissions, more efficient means of reducing emissions in other sectors should more than compensate for the difference.

    These figures clearly show that jet fuels claims of "huge negative consequences" are overblown.

  45. New estimate of electricity generated if every roof and parking lot were covered with solar panels:  100 times consumption in the U.S.

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