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Skeptical Science New Research for Week #30 2023
Posted on 27 July 2023 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack
Open access notables
From our government/NGO reports section, World Weather Attribution's latest report Extreme heat in North America, Europe and China in July 2023 made much more likely by climate change:
North America, Europe, and China have experienced heatwaves increasingly frequently over the last years as a result of warming caused by human activities, hence the current heat waves are not rare in today’s climate with an event like the currently expected approximately once every 15 years in the US/Mexico region, once every 10 years in southern Europe, and once in 5 years for China. Without human-induced climate change, these heat events would however have been extremely rare. In China, it would have been about a 1 in 250-year event while maximum heat like in July 2023 would have been virtually impossible to occur in the U.S./Mexico region and southern Europe if humans had not warmed the planet by burning fossil fuels.
In Climate Risk Management, Further understanding “severe” climate risk:
Acknowledging that the notion of dangerousness can substantially vary from one sociocultural context to another, this Perspective paper builds on recent literature to explore three notions that are estimated to be foundational to climate risk severity: the physical, ecological and social thresholds leading to transformational and possibly abrupt changes; the irreversibility of these changes; and the cascading effects within and across the systems affected. While not necessarily the most determining dimensions of risk, they deserve more attention and integration into frameworks to assess “severe” climate risk, such frameworks remaining under-developed.
Growing Threats From Swings Between Hot and Wet Extremes in a Warmer World, Geophysical Research Letters:
In this study, we present a comprehensive assessment of the two types of interacting hot and wet extremes: humid heat extremes followed by pluvial flooding (heat-pluvial) and extreme pluvials followed by humid heat (pluvial-heat). We find that these events have increased significantly in most regions of the world for the last three decades, which can be associated with the warming effect. Importantly, we identify that the vapor pressure deficit plays an important but varying role in the abrupt alternation between heat and pluvial events. We emphasize the importance of using reliable statistical tests to ensure the validity of the results for complex compound events. Our analysis highlights the need for policymakers and stakeholders to develop adaptation strategies to cope with overlapping vulnerabilities due to compound hot and wet extremes, especially in areas prone to both such as West Australia, South America and Sub-Saharan Africa.
Deglacial perspectives of future sea level for Singapore, Nature Communications Earth & Environment:
Here we provide probability perspectives of future sea level for Singapore using regional geological reconstructions and instrumental records since the last glacial maximum ~21.5 thousand years ago. We quantify magnitudes and rates of sea-level change showing deglacial sea level rose from ~121 m below present level and increased at averaged rates up to ~15 mm/yr, which reduced the paleogeographic landscape by ~2.3 million km2. Projections under a moderate emissions scenario show sea level rising 0.95 m at a rate of 7.3 mm/yr by 2150 which has only been exceeded (at least 99% probability) during rapid ice mass loss events ~14.5 and ~9 thousand years ago. Projections under a high emissions scenario incorporating low confidence ice-sheet processes, however, have no precedent during the last deglaciation.
133 articles in 57 journals by 789 contributing authors
Physical science of climate change, effects
Changes in Relative Humidity Profiles over Earth’s Oceans in a Warming Climate: A Satellite-Data-Based Inference, Abraham & Goldblatt, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 10.1175/jas-d-22-0119.1
Non-Monotonic Feedback Dependence Under Abrupt CO2 Forcing Due To a North Atlantic Pattern Effect, Mitevski et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl103617
Resonant Waves Play an Important Role in the Increasing Heat Waves in Northern Hemisphere Mid-Latitudes Under Global Warming, He et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl104839
Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, Ditlevsen & Ditlevsen Ditlevsen, Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-023-39810-w
Observations of climate change, effects
2022 early-summer heatwave in Southern South America: 60 times more likely due to climate change, Rivera et al., Climatic Change 10.1007/s10584-023-03576-3
Arctic warming trends and their uncertainties based on surface temperature reconstruction under different sea ice extent scenarios, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.06.003
Caves demonstrate decrease in rainfall recharge of southwest Australian groundwater is unprecedented for the last 800 years, Priestley et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-00858-7
Decadal Changes in the Linkage Between Autumn Sea Ice and the Winter Eurasian Temperature in the 20th Century, He et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl103851
Extension of Large Fire Emissions From Summer to Autumn and Its Drivers in the Western US, Wang et al., Earth's Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2022ef003086
Growing Threats From Swings Between Hot and Wet Extremes in a Warmer World, You et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl104075
Heatwaves in Southern Armenia in the context of climate change, Galstyan et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.7425
On the Global Decrease in the Deep and Abyssal Density Stratification Along the Spreading Pathways of Antarctic Bottom Water Since the 1990s, Tan & Thurnherr, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2022gl102422
The seas around China in a warming climate, Wang et al., Nature Reviews Earth & Environment 10.1038/s43017-023-00453-6
Unprecedented warmth: A look at Spain's exceptional summer of 2022, Serrano-Notivoli et al., Atmospheric Research Open Access 10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.106931
Upper ocean warming and sea ice reduction in the East Greenland Current from 2003 to 2019, de Steur et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-00913-3
Variations of air temperature differences at different temporal scales over the Tibetan Plateau since 1961 and their possible causes, Lin et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.8177
Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects
Closure of Earth’s Global Seasonal Cycle of Energy Storage, Johnson et al., Surveys in Geophysics Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10712-023-09797-6
Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects
Changes of tropical gravity waves and the quasi-biennial oscillation in storm-resolving simulations of idealized global warming, Franke et al., Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 10.1002/qj.4534
Deconstructing Future AMOC Decline at 26.5°N, Asbjørnsen & Årthun, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl103515
Greenhouse Warming Weakens the Seasonal Cycle of the Eastern Boundary Upwelling, Du et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl103857
Overturning Pathways Control AMOC Weakening in CMIP6 Models, Baker et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl103381
Projected changes in extreme climate events over Africa under 1.5 , 2.0 and 3.0 global warming levels based on CMIP6 projections, Ayugi et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.106872
Projections of mean and extreme precipitation over China and their resolution dependence in the HighResMIP experiments, Liang et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.106932
Regional wave climate projections forced by EURO-CORDEX winds for the Black Sea and Sea of Azov towards the end of the 21st century, Çakmak et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.8181
Response of Future Summer Marine Heatwaves in the South China Sea to Enhanced Western Pacific Subtropical High, Song et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl103667
The Most Effective Remote Forcing in Causing U.S.-Wide Heat Extremes as Revealed by CESM Green's Function Experiments, Wu et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl103355
The Relationships Between Meridional Position of North Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies and North American Surface Temperatures Revealed by CMIP6 Models, Wang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2022gl102096
WACCM6 projections of Polar Mesospheric Cloud abundance over the 21st century, Yu et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2023jd038985
Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection
An evaluation of CMIP6 models in representing the biophysical effects of deforestation with satellite-based observations, Luo et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access pdf 10.1029/2022jd038198
Analyzing the influences of the selection of the RCP scenario and the reference period on the evaluation results of EURO-CORDEX simulations for Hungary, Kis & Pongrácz, International Journal of Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.8184
Comparison of machine learning statistical downscaling and regional climate models for temperature, precipitation, wind speed, humidity and radiation over Europe under present conditions, Hernanz et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8190
How Credibly Do CMIP6 Simulations Capture Historical Mean and Extreme Precipitation Changes?, Donat et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2022gl102466
Interpretation of Net Surface Heat Fluxes and Meridional Overturning Circulations in Global Coupled HadGEM3 Climate Simulations, Bell et al., Journal of Physical Oceanography Open Access 10.1175/jpo-d-22-0073.1
Machine learning and the quest for objectivity in climate model parameterization, Jebeile et al., Climatic Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-023-03532-1
Cryosphere & climate change
Cold Season Rain Event Has Impact on Greenland's Firn Layer Comparable to Entire Summer Melt Season, Harper et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl103654
Identifying mountain permafrost degradation by repeating historical electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) measurements, Buckel et al., The Cryosphere Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-17-2919-2023
Sea level & climate change
Deglacial perspectives of future sea level for Singapore, Shaw et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-00868-5
Mapping inundation from sea level rise and its interaction with land cover in the Sundarbans mangrove forest, Kanan et al., Climatic Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-023-03574-5
North Indian Ocean sea level rise in the past and future: The role of climate change and variability, Jyoti et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2023.104205
Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry
Panarctic lakes exerted a small positive feedback on early Holocene warming due to deglacial release of methane, Brosius et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-00930-2
Biology & climate change, related geochemistry
Anthropogenic Climate Change Negatively Impacts Vegetation and Forage Conditions in the Greater Four Corners Region, Williams et al., Earth's Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2022ef002943
Climate-sargassum interactions across scales in the tropical Atlantic, Marsh et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000253
Closing the gap between science and management of cold-water refuges in rivers and streams, Mejia et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.16844
Comparing Sediment Microbial Communities of Arctic Beaver Ponds to Tundra Lakes and Streams, Shannon et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 10.1029/2023jg007408
Consider physiology when translocating animals, Morris, Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-023-01747-9
Drought and temperature stresses impact pollen production and autonomous selfing in a California wildflower, Collinsia heterophylla, Arathi & Smith, Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.1002/ece3.10324
Experimental nest cooling reveals dramatic effects of heatwaves on reproduction in a Mediterranean bird of prey, Corregidor?Castro et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.16888
Global change drives phenological and spatial shifts in Central European longhorn beetles (Coleoptera, Cerambycidae) during the past 150 years, Vitali et al., Oecologia 10.1007/s00442-023-05417-7
Global distribution and climatic controls of natural mountain treelines, He et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.16885
Past climate-driven range shifts structuring intraspecific biodiversity levels of the giant kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera) at global scales, Assis et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-023-38944-7
Physiological and biochemical responses of clams to recurrent marine heatwaves, Yang et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2023.106105
Potential anthropogenic and climatic factors affecting Iran’s international wetlands, Rahimi et al., Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences 10.1007/s13412-023-00846-5
Rapid tropicalization evidence of subtidal seaweed assemblages along a coastal transitional zone, de Azevedo et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-023-38514-x
Reassessment of growth-climate relations indicates the potential for decline across Eurasian boreal larch forests, Li et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-39057-5
Strong inhibiting effect of daytime warming but weak promoting effect of nighttime warming on carbon use efficiency in Northern Hemisphere, Sun et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2023.104192
Triploid Pacific oysters exhibit stress response dysregulation and elevated mortality following heatwaves, George et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.16880
Tundra browning in the Indigirka Lowlands (North-eastern Siberia) explained by drought, floods and small-scale vegetation shifts, Magnússon et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.1029/2022jg007330
Wild canids and the ecological traps facing the climate change and deforestation in the Amazon Forest, de Oliveira et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.1002/ece3.10150
GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry
Biogeographic pattern of living vegetation carbon turnover time in mature forests across continents, Yu et al., Global Ecology and Biogeography Open Access pdf 10.1111/geb.13736
Cold-Season Methane Fluxes Simulated by GCP-CH4 Models, Ito et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl103037
Concurrent measurements of phytoplankton productivity and light absorption from a global carbon hotspot: Variability, features, and causes, Kerkar et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2023.104193
Enhanced CO2 uptake is marginally offset by altered fluxes of non-CO2 greenhouse gases in global forests and grasslands under N deposition, Xiao et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.16869
Litter quality controls tradeoffs in soil carbon decomposition and replenishment in a subtropical forest, Lyu et al., Journal of Ecology 10.1111/1365-2745.14167
Projected increases in emissions of high global warming potential fluorinated gases in China, Guo et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-00859-6
Root and Microbial Soil CO2 and CH4 Fluxes Respond Differently to Seasonal and Episodic Environmental Changes in a Temperate Forest, Hopple et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 10.1029/2022jg007233
Snow–vegetation–atmosphere interactions in alpine tundra, Pirk et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-20-2031-2023
Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001
CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering
A comprehensive review of the influence of particle size and pore distribution on the kinetics of CO2 hydrate formation in porous media, Zhang et al., Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology 10.1002/ghg.2239
Impact of aquifer properties on the extent and timeline of CO2 trapping, Iloejesi et al., Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology Open Access 10.1002/ghg.2238
Ocean afforestation is a potentially effective way to remove carbon dioxide, Wang et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-39926-z
Reply to: Ocean afforestation is a potentially effective way to remove carbon dioxide, Bach et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-39927-y
Retrofitted carbon capture and storage for negative emissions in China’s co-firing plants, , Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-023-01756-8
Soil carbon sequestration in global working lands as a gateway for negative emission technologies, Almaraz et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.16884
Decarbonization
Boosting efficiency of eco-friendly perovskite solar cell through optimization of novel charge transport layers, Ismail et al., Royal Society Open Science Open Access 10.1098/rsos.230331
Internalisation of environmental costs of decentralised nitrogen fertilisers production, Osorio-Tejada et al., The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11367-023-02187-5
Geoengineering climate
Quantifying the Efficiency of Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering at Different Altitudes, Lee et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl104417
Aerosols
Extreme Smog Challenge of India Intensified by Increasing Lower Tropospheric Stability, Gautam et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl103105
Climate change communications & cognition
A net-zero storyline for success? News media analysis of the social legitimacy of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage in the United Kingdom, Donnison et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2023.103153
Defending “Canadian Energy”: Connective Leadership and Extractive Populism on Canadian Facebook, Neubauer et al., Environmental Communication 10.1080/17524032.2023.2235919
From believing in climate change to adapting to climate change: The role of risk perception and efficacy beliefs, van Valkengoed et al., Risk Analysis Open Access pdf 10.1111/risa.14193
Trial by Fire: Support for Mitigation and Adaptation Policy after the 2020 Oregon Wildfires, Giordono et al., Weather, Climate, and Society 10.1175/wcas-d-22-0075.1
Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change
A shift from isohydric to anisohydric water-use strategy as a result of increasing drought stress for young apple trees in a semiarid agroforestry system, Zhao et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109484
Assessment of projected climate change impact on agro-climatic indicators in Poland, Marcinkowski et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8185
Basalt addition improves the performance of young grassland monocultures under more persistent weather featuring longer dry and wet spells, Reynaert et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109610
Knowledge brokers within the multiple streams framework: The science-policy interface for livestock and climate change discussions in Kenya, Cramer et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2023.05.018
Optimizing sowing window for mungbean and its adaptation option for the South-central zone of Bangladesh in future climate change scenario using APSIM model, Ahmed et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000180
Role of social network on banana farmer's adaptation to climate change and land productivity in Ngazidja island, Comoros archipelago, Abdoussalami et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-03626-x
Steady decline in food self-sufficiency in Africa from 1961 to 2018, Zhang et al., Regional Environmental Change 10.1007/s10113-023-02074-7
The impacts of climate change factors and innovative capabilities on food production in Algeria: evidence from ARDL model, Bouznit & Aïssaoui, Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-03627-w
Towards sustainable food production and climate change mitigation: an attributional life cycle assessment comparing industrial and basalt rock dust fertilisers, Oppon et al., The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11367-023-02196-4
Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change
Dry-wet variations and the related influencing factors in Southwest China on multi-time scales during 1961–2017, Pang et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-023-04566-2
Flood inundation and risk mapping under climate change scenarios in the lower Bilate catchment, Ethiopia, Edamo et al., Natural Hazards 10.1007/s11069-023-06101-y
MOPREDAS¢ury database and precipitation trends in mainland Spain, 1916–2020, Gonzalez?Hidalgo et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.8060
Seventy-Year Trends in Ship-Reported Oceanic Precipitation Frequency, Petty & Tran, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl104270
Tailored Forecasts Can Predict Extreme Climate Informing Proactive Interventions in East Africa, Funk et al., Earth's Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef003524
The Western Himalayan fir tree ring record of soil moisture in Pakistan since 1855, Rauf et al., International Journal of Biometeorology 10.1007/s00484-023-02517-0
Climate change economics
CO2 intensity decomposition analysis in the Netherlands' manufacturing industry: an application of monetary and physical indicators, Faridzad & Ghadim, Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-022-02423-2
Does clean energy matter? The dynamic effects of different strategies of renewable energy, carbon emissions, and trade openness on sustainable economic growth, Wang et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-03505-5
Internalisation of environmental costs of decentralised nitrogen fertilisers production, Osorio-Tejada et al., The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11367-023-02187-5
Role of carbon tax in a sustainable economic growth, Socci et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-03516-2
The liberal limits to transformation in the Green Climate Fund, Kuhl et al., Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2023.2235318
The power of financial innovation in neutralizing carbon emissions: the case of mobile money in Somalia, Mohamed & Mohamud, Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-03594-2
Climate change and the circular economy
Life cycle assessment in the context of decarbonization and carbon neutrality, Bach, The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11367-023-02190-w
Climate change mitigation public policy research
A pathway to achieve the net zero emissions target for the public electricity and heat production sector: A case study for Türkiye, Calikoglu & Aydinalp Koksal, Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113653
Accelerating electric vehicle charging investments: A real options approach to policy design, Dimanchev et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113703
Biogas technology adoption and household welfare perspectives for sustainable development, Ahmad & Jabeen, Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113728
Carbon management strategy quality in Colombian companies: the influence of the national and regional public sector and company-inherent characteristics, Rodríguez et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-022-02404-5
Cash flow investment, external funding and the energy transition: Evidence from large US energy firms, Restrepo & Uribe , Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113720
Contribution of prioritized urban nature-based solutions allocation to carbon neutrality, Pan et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-023-01737-x
Effects of incentive policies on the purchase intention of electric vehicles in China: Psychosocial value and family ownership, Xue et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113732
Green frontrunner or indebted culprit? Assessing Denmark’s climate targets in light of fair contributions under the Paris Agreement, Tilsted & Bjørn Baeten Hoppe, Climatic Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-023-03583-4
Indirect carbon emissions from household consumption of middle-income groups: Evidence from Yangtze River Economic Belt in China, Pang et al., Energy for Sustainable Development Open Access 10.1016/j.esd.2023.101280
Linking personal remittance and fossil fuels energy consumption to environmental degradation: evidence from all SAARC countries, Rani et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-022-02407-2
Making embodied carbon mainstream: a framework for cities to leverage waste, equity, and preservation policy to reduce embodied emissions in buildings, Teicher, Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences Open Access pdf 10.1007/s13412-023-00836-7
Optimal pricing and replenishment decisions for non-instantaneous deteriorating items with a fixed lifetime and partial backordering under carbon regulations, Mahato et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-03536-y
Sustainable deployment of energy efficient district heating: city business model, Pardo-Bosch et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113701
The effect of electricity market reform on energy efficiency in China, Wang & Wang, Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113722
The impact of internet development on China's energy intensity and its mechanism analysis, Hu et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-03581-7
The messy politics of local climate assemblies, Lewis et al., Climatic Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-023-03555-8
Unequal residential heating burden caused by combined heat and power phase-out under climate goals, Wang et al., Nature Energy 10.1038/s41560-023-01308-6
Unintended mitigation benefits of China's coal de-capacity policies on methane emissions, Guo et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113718
Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research
A toolchain to evaluate the impact of urban heat island and climate change on summer overheating at district level, Ma et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2023.101602
Adaptation at whose expense? Explicating the maladaptive potential of water storage and climate-resilient growth for M?ori women in northern Aotearoa, Johnson et al., Global Environmental Change 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102733
Assessing the effectiveness of adaptation against sea level rise in Japanese coastal areas: protection or relocation?, , Computer Science and Communications Dictionary Open Access 10.1007/1-4020-0613-6_16008
Reclaiming open climate adaptation futures, Farbotko et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-023-01733-1
Trial by Fire: Support for Mitigation and Adaptation Policy after the 2020 Oregon Wildfires, Giordono et al., Weather, Climate, and Society 10.1175/wcas-d-22-0075.1
Urban climate justice in hot-arid regions: Vulnerability assessment and spatial analysis of socio-economic and housing inequality in Isfahan, Iran, Suleimany, Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2023.101612
“We are still here” climate change, gender and immobility in highly mobile Himalayan communities, Upadhyay et al., Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2023.2230176
Climate change impacts on human health
Effects of Temperature and Air Pollution on Emergency Ambulance Dispatches: A Time Series Analysis in a Medium-Sized City in Germany, Schneider et al., Weather, Climate, and Society 10.1175/wcas-d-22-0046.1
Climate change & geopolitics Climate change impacts on human culture
Climate change versus livelihoods, heritage and ecosystems in small Island states of the Pacific: a case study on Tuvalu, Islam et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-022-02367-7
Towards a climate-smart cultural heritage management, Fatori? & Daly, WIREs Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1002/wcc.855
Other
Investigating the role of organic compounds in intercontinental ozone transport: Reactivity scales and Global Warming Potentials (GWPs), Derwent et al., Atmospheric Environment 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2023.119817
Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives
Credibility gap in net-zero climate targets leaves world at high risk, Rogelj et al., Science 10.1126/science.adg6248
Further understanding “severe” climate risk, Magnan et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2023.100538
Sustainable pathways toward reimagining India’s agricultural systems, Bawa & Seidler, Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-00902-6
Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change
New Mexico Advanced Clean Cars II Program, Tolomiczenko et al., Natural Resources Defense Council, Sierra Club, and Western Resource Advocates
The authors investigated the state adopting the Advanced Clean Cars II (ACC II) regulation under two different manufacturer compliance scenarios including manufacturers, as expected, use many of their compliance flexibilities to comply with the regulation or manufacturers do not use these flexibilities to meet compliance. These two compliance strategies provide, respectively, a reasonable midpoint estimate and an upper limit of zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) placements under ACC II policy. The authors also investigated the effect of New Mexico reaching 100 percent clean electricity by 2040 under both ACC II compliance scenarios. Depending on the scenario chosen, the ACC II regulation will have significant cumulative net societal benefits through 2050.
A Path to Pollution-Free Buildings: Meeting Xcel's 2030 Gas Decarbonization Goals, Fickling et al., Natural Resources Defense Council and the Southwest Energy Efficiency Project
In 2021, Colorado passed legislation requiring Colorado’s gas utilities to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by 4% by 2025 and 22% by 2030, relative to 2015 levels. These goals cover emissions from customers’ use of gas and leakage from the utility’s distribution system. They are ambitious, and the steady growth in gas sales by Xcel Energy, Colorado’s largest electricity and gas provider, makes them even more so. Since 2015, Xcel’s retail gas sales have grown by 9%, meaning that the utility’s 2030 emissions reduction goal is really a 28% reduction from current levels – which it must achieve in just seven years. The authors recommend measures to drive a steep reduction in emissions from the gas utility and demonstrate how Xcel can meet Colorado’s targets in a way that delivers the most emissions reductions per ratepayer dollar. To achieve its 2030 goal, Xcel must rapidly increase adoption of efficient electric appliances – heat pumps and heat pump water heaters – and weatherize tens of thousands of homes and businesses. While the efforts necessary to meet the clean heat targets are challenging, they are achievable.
The Prospects for Pumped Storage Hydropower in Alaska, Koritarov et al., Argonne National Laboratory and hte National Renewable Energy Laboratory
The resource mapping analysis confirmed that numerous locations in Alaska are suitable for the development of pumped storage hydropower (PSH) projects, both larger grid scale projects and smaller projects that could be suitable for remote communities. The resource assessment for larger, grid-scale projects showed the potential for more than 1,800 closed-loop systems in Alaska, with a total energy storage capacity of about 4 terawatt hours (TWh). Because of their small reservoir sizes and dam heights, many locations were identified as potentially suitable for small-scale PSH systems. Nearly 50% of the identified potentially suitable small-scale PSH sites are in Southeast Alaska.
Hawai'i Pathways to Net Zero: An Initial Assessment of Decarbonization Scenarios, Gold-Parker et al., Hawaiian Electric
The authors developed long-term, economywide decarbonization scenarios that meet Hawaii's 2045 net zero greenhouse has target. Importantly, this study does not seek to define prescriptive approaches to achieving net zero in Hawaii, but rather provides an initial exploration of what might be needed to achieve this ambitious climate goal in terms of energy infrastructure, technology adoption and deployment, and supportive policies. This initial assessment of decarbonization scenarios does not include an evaluation of the potential costs and benefits of the energy transition, focusing instead on the scale of the energy transition and the types of technologies and fuels that would be needed to meet Hawaii’s 2045 target.
FEMA Response and Recovery Climate Change Planning Guidance, Federal Emergency Management Agency
The authors provide background information on climate change and how it affects emergency management operations. They also provide steps and considerations to incorporate that information into existing planning processes and products. The intended audience for this climate change guidance document includes all internal FEMA response and recovery planners. This guidance provides an overview of climate change and general insights from climate assessments on observed climate-related impacts; input regarding how FEMA should expand its threat/hazard profiles based on climate change trends and predictions; and climate change planning considerations to inform FEMA’s deliberate plans for federal emergency response and recovery operations.
Modelling Climate Litigation Risk for (Re)Insurers, Martin Lockman, Sabin Center for Climate Change Law
"Modelling Climate Litigation Risk for (Re)Insurers" assembles a toolkit to help academics, attorneys, insurance practitioners, and industry regulators model (re)insurer climate litigation risk. Section 2 of this report discusses the categories of climate litigation, and creates a definition of “climate litigation risk” tailored towards (re)insurer risk evaluation. Using this definition, Section 3 next systematically categorizes the risks, commercial opportunities, and operational flexibility that climate litigation presents to (re)insurers. Section 4 then discusses qualitative and quantitative techniques used to model these climate litigation risks, and outlines a simple climate litigation risk model for (re)insurers. Finally, annexes to this report (1) review regulations that require companies to assess and disclose their exposure to climate litigation; (2) outline key academic, industry, and government resources that discuss climate litigation risks and opportunities for insurers; and (3) highlight global climate litigation of particular significance to (re)insurers.
Extreme heat in North America, Europe and China in July 2023 made much more likely by climate change, Zachariah et al., World Weather Attribution
July 2023 saw extreme heatwaves in several parts of the Northern Hemisphere, including the U.S. southwest, Mexico, southern Europe, and China. The authors assess to what extent human-induced climate change altered the likelihood and intensity of the extreme July heat in these regions. In line with what has been expected from past climate projections, these events are not rare anymore. North America, Europe, and China have experienced heatwaves increasingly frequently over the last years as a result of warming caused by human activities, hence the current heat waves are not rare in today’s climate with an event like the currently expected approximately once every 15 years in the US/Mexico region, once every 10 years in southern Europe, and once in 5 years for China. Without human-induced climate change, these heat events would however have been extremely rare. In China, it would have been about a 1 in 250-year event while maximum heat like in July 2023 would have been virtually impossible to occur in the U.S./Mexico region and southern Europe if humans had not warmed the planet by burning fossil fuels. In all the regions a heatwave of the same likelihood as the one observed today would have been significantly cooler in a world without climate change.
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We know it's frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. One-off paid access fees are generally astronomically priced, suitable for such as "On a Heuristic Point of View Concerning the Production and Transformation of Light" but not as a gamble on unknowns. With a median world income of US$ 9,373, for most of us US$ 42 is significant money to wager on an article's relevance and importance.
- Here's an excellent collection of tips and techniques for obtaining articles, legally.
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Most articles appearing here are found via RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance.
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