Skeptical Science New Research for Week #48 2023

Posted on 30 November 2023 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack

Open access notables

From this week's government/NGO section, longitudinal data is gold and Leisorowitz, Maibachi et al. continue to mine ore from the US public with Climate Change in the American Mind: Politics & Policy, Fall 2023:

Drawing on a representative sample of the U.S. adult population, the authors describe how registered voters view a variety of domestic climate and energy policies. The survey was fielded from October 20 – 26, 2023. For example, 57% of registered voters would prefer to vote for a candidate for public office who supports action on global warming. This includes 95% of liberal Democrats, 86% of moderate/conservative Democrats, and 46% of liberal/moderate Republicans, but only 13% of conservative Republicans. 56% of registered voters think global warming should be a high or very high priority for the president and Congress. 64% of registered voters think developing sources of clean energy should be a high or very high priority for the President and Congress.

Now that we've fully twigged to wet-bulb temperature vs. human survivability in a warming, moistening climate, we're already seeing refined results against first-pass gross estimations. In Nature Communications Jennifer Varos et al. subdivide populations and arrive at some grim conclusions. From the abstract of A physiological approach for assessing human survivability and liveability to heat in a changing climate:

Most studies projecting human survivability limits to extreme heat with climate change use a 35 °C wet-bulb temperature (Tw) threshold without integrating variations in human physiology. This study applies physiological and biophysical principles for young and older adults, in sun or shade, to improve current estimates of survivability and introduce liveability (maximum safe, sustained activity) under current and future climates. Our physiology-based survival limits show a vast underestimation of risks by the 35 °C Tw model in hot-dry conditions. Updated survivability limits correspond to Tw~25.8–34.1 °C (young) and ~21.9–33.7 °C (old)—0.9–13.1 °C lower than Tw = 35 °C.

There are obvious implications in the authors' findings, including that older people will be much more at risk from wet-bulb temperature extremes. 

Dikes as Maginot Line? That's the picture coming to mind when reading Kiesel et al. and Raising dikes and managed realignment may be insufficient for maintaining current flood risk along the German Baltic Sea coast. Publishing in Nature Communications Earth & Environment, these investigators expose a major flaw in conventional wisdom concerning sea level rise and protection of low-lying areas of Germany's portion of the Baltic Sea coast: models consider protection as continuous but it's not, meaning that the sea can outflank defenses: 

We find that upgrading existing dikes by increasing their heights or MR may be insufficient to maintain current flood risk levels. This finding is not in agreement with the findings of previous global- and continental-scale studies. Here we show that water does not overflow dikes but bypasses them or floods unprotected areas (Fig. 4b, c, d, e and Figs. S1–S3 in Supplementary Material). On the other hand, global or continental-scale studies consistently demonstrate the effectiveness of raising dike heights in reducing population exposure and expected annual damages3,4,54. However, due to their scale, these studies address adaptation in a more stylized way, for instance by assuming uniform coastal protection standards along the full length of the coastline, including areas where currentlyno dikes are present.

Further details reveal more flaws. 

It's not surprising that industries with track records of a couple of centuries' delivery of social welfare might influence the mood in a room with evolution in the air. How does this influence media coverage of energy industry modernization? Publishing in Sustainability Science, Fulvio Biddau, Valentina Rizzoli & Mauro Sarrica derive quantification of likely unconscious hagiography of anachronisms, in Phasing-out ‘coal tradition’ in favour of ‘renewable colonialism’: how the press contributes to the discursive (de)legitimization of coal and renewables in a coal region in transition:

Throughout the analyzed period, newspapers have cultivated a discursive environment that weakens efforts to phase out coal and promote low-carbon energy by amplifying particular storylines endorsed by competing discourse coalitions. Media discourse consistently portrays decarbonization and coal phase-out as threatening, anticipating disruption to regional livelihoods and traditions. Over time, renewable energies are marginalized or hindered by storylines promoting regime stability (coal legitimacy), soft transformation (coal-to-gas transition), and, finally, a reconfiguration (utility-scale renewable transition) promoted by incumbents and resisted by locally based discourse coalitions perceiving it as a form of colonialism.  

120 articles in 58 journals by 712 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

A colorful look at climate sensitivity, Stevens & Kluft Kluft, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-23-14673-2023

Amplified Subsurface Signals of Ocean Acidification, Fassbender et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gb007843

Change and attribution of frost days and frost-free periods in China, Zhu & Yan, International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8310

Circulation dampened heat extremes intensification over the Midwest USA and amplified over Western Europe, Singh et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-01096-7

Grounding our Understanding of the Impacts of Boreal Forest Expansion on Shallow Cumulus Clouds with a Simple Modeling Framework, Pennypacker & Wood, Journal of Hydrometeorology 10.1175/jhm-d-22-0165.1

How changes in the circulation patterns specific to the solid precipitations can affect these meteorological events in the Alpine stations of the Mediterranean region? Use of the ERA5 reanalyses, Guerin & Viaux, Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-023-04733-5

Multi-decadal variability controls short-term stratospheric water vapor trends, Tao et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-01094-9

Ocean fronts as decadal thermostats modulating continental warming hiatus, Sung et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-43686-1

Observations of climate change, effects

Anthropogenic warming induced intensification of summer monsoon frontal precipitation over East Asia, Moon et al., Science Advances Open Access pdf 10.1126/sciadv.adh4195

Assessing space and time changes in daily maximum temperature in the Ebro basin (Spain) using model-based statistical tools, Cebrián et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8305

How Have Hydrological Extremes Changed over the Past 20 Years?, Li & Rodell, Journal of Climate Open Access pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0199.1

The evolutionary characteristics of temperature change in China during 1961–2020, Zhou et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.8300

Understanding the Magnification of Heatwaves over Spain: Relevant changes in the most extreme events, Paredes-Fortuny & Khodayar, Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2023.100631

Was the February 2022 Persistent Heavy Precipitation Event over South China Enhanced by Anthropogenic Climate Change?, Qiao et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-22-0258.1

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

Challenging the universality of heatwave definitions: gridded temperature discrepancies across climate regions, Coughlan de Perez et al., Climatic Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-023-03641-x

Nonstationarity in High and Low-Temperature Extremes: Insights From a Global Observational Data Set by Merging Extreme-Value Methods, Nerantzaki et al., Earth's Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef003506

Synthesizing long-term satellite imagery consistent with climate data: Application to daily snow cover, Zakeri & Mariethoz, Remote Sensing of Environment Open Access 10.1016/j.rse.2023.113877

Validation of the CLARA-A3 Top-of-Atmosphere Radiative Fluxes Climate Data Record, Akkermans & Clerbaux, Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology Open Access pdf 10.1175/jtech-d-23-0065.1

Varieties of approaches to constructing physical climate storylines: A review, Baldissera Pacchetti et al., WIREs Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1002/wcc.869

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

Anthropogenic influence has significantly affected snowfall changes in Eurasia, Lin et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.107125

Diverse Eurasian Temperature Responses to Arctic Sea Ice Loss in Models due to Varying Balance between Dynamic Cooling and Thermodynamic Warming, Zheng et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-22-0937.1

Evaluation of future climatology and its uncertainty under SSP scenarios based on a bias processing procedure: A case study of the Lancang-Mekong River Basin, Sun et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.107134

Radiative Impacts of Californian Marine Low Clouds on North Pacific Climate in a Global Climate Model, Miyamoto et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0153.1

Stochastic Generation of Plausible Hydroclimate Futures Using Climate Teleconnections for Southeastern Australia, Potter et al., Journal of Hydrometeorology 10.1175/jhm-d-22-0206.1

Storyline attribution of human influence on a record-breaking spatially compounding flood-heat event, Wang et al., Science Advances 10.1126/sciadv.adi2714

Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

Assessing arctic wetting: Performances of CMIP6 models and projections of precipitation changes, Cai et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.107124

Assessing carbon cycle projections from complex and simple models under SSP scenarios, Melnikova et al., Climatic Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-023-03639-5

Assessment of CMIP5 and CMIP6 AMIP Simulated Clouds and Surface Shortwave Radiation Using ARM Observations over Different Climate Regions, Zheng et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0247.1

Connecting the SST Pattern Problem and the Hot Model Problem, Rugenstein et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl105488

Disentangling the Sources of Uncertainties in the Projection of Flood Risk Across the Central United States (Iowa), Michalek et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl105852

Local and Remote Causes of the Equatorial Pacific Cold Sea Surface Temperature Bias in the Kiel Climate Model, Zhang et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-22-0874.1

On the limitations of deep learning for statistical downscaling of climate change projections: The transferability and the extrapolation issues, Hernanz et al., Atmospheric Science Letters Open Access pdf 10.1002/asl.1195

Persistent Model Biases in the Spatial Variability of Winter North Atlantic Atmospheric Circulation, Tao et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl105231

Cryosphere & climate change

Brief communication: Non-linear sensitivity of glacier mass balance to climate attested by temperature-index models, Vincent & Thibert, The Cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-17-1989-202

Brief communication: Non-linear sensitivity of glacier mass balance to climate attested by temperature-index models, Vincent & Thibert, The Cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-17-1989-2023

Ocean warming drives rapid dynamic activation of marine-terminating glacier on the west Antarctic Peninsula, Wallis et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-42970-4

Rapid Saline Permafrost Thaw Below a Shallow Thermokarst Lake in Arctic Alaska, Jones et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl105552

Response of the Arctic sea ice–ocean system to meltwater perturbations based on a one-dimensional model study, Zhang et al., Ocean Science Open Access 10.5194/os-19-1649-2023

Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry

Atmospheric methane variability through the Last Glacial Maximum and deglaciation mainly controlled by tropical sources, Riddell-Young et al., Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-023-01332-x

Globally limited but severe shallow-shelf euxinia during the end-Triassic extinction, Bond et al., Nature Geoscience Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41561-023-01303-2

Influences of climate change on tropical cyclones: An insight into the Western North Pacific over the past two millennia, Han et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2023.104319

Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

20th-Century hurricanes leave long-lasting legacies on tropical forest height and the abundance of a dominant wind-resistant palm, Uriarte et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.1002/ece3.10776

A constraint on historic growth in global photosynthesis due to rising CO2, Keenan et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-023-01867-2

Biotic interactions under risk: climate change drives spatial mismatch between a critically endangered tree and its seed dispersers and predators, Marchioro et al., Climatic Change 10.1007/s10584-023-03642-w

Birds are better at regulating heat loss through their legs than their bills: implications for body shape evolution in response to climate, McQueen et al., Biology Letters 10.1098/rsbl.2023.0373

Climate-driven changes to the spatial–temporal pattern of endangered tree Toona ciliata Roem. in China, Xie et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-023-04757-x

Divergent community trajectories with climate change across a fine-scale gradient in snow depth, Oldfather et al., Journal of Ecology 10.1111/1365-2745.14223

Dust storms increase the tolerance of phytoplankton to thermal and pH changes, González?Olalla et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17055

Ecosystems in China have become more sensitive to changes in water demand since 2001, Hu et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-01105-9

Evidence for antagonistic effects of climate change and exotic pathogens on regeneration of Mediterranean forests, Homet et al., Journal of Ecology Open Access pdf 10.1111/1365-2745.14227

Extreme temperatures affect NDVI in Karst ecological fragile area, Chen et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-023-04737-1

Future flow and water temperature scenarios in an impounded drainage basin: implications for summer flow and temperature management downstream of the dam, Khorsandi et al., Climatic Change Open Access 10.1007/s10584-023-03634-w

Global warming intensifies the interference competition by a poleward-expanding invader on a native dragonfly species, Nagano et al., Royal Society Open Science 10.1098/rsos.230449

Habitat fragmentation affects climate adaptation in a forest herb, Van Daele et al., Journal of Ecology Open Access pdf 10.1111/1365-2745.14225

Heat wave-induced microbial thermal trait adaptation and its reversal in the Subarctic, Tájmel et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.17032

Lake browning counteracts cyanobacteria responses to nutrients: Evidence from phytoplankton dynamics in large enclosure experiments and comprehensive observational data, Lyche Solheim et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.17013

Mammal communities of primeval forests as sentinels of global change, Selva et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17045

Metabolic and immune costs balance during natural acclimation of corals in fluctuating environments, Yu et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2023.106284

Parental exposure to heat waves improves offspring reproductive investment in Tetranychus urticae (Acari: Tetranychidae), but not in its predator, Phytoseiulus persimilis (Acari: Phytoseiidae), Tscholl et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.1002/ece3.10748

Phenotypic adaptation to temperature in the mosquito vector, Aedes aegypti, Dennington et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.17041

Reporting the biodiversity impacts of greenhouse gas emissions, Mokany et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.17037

Shrinking body size of European anchovy in the Bay of Biscay, Taboada et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.17047

Small increases in ambient temperature reduce offspring body mass in an equatorial mammal, Khera et al., Biology Letters Open Access 10.1098/rsbl.2023.0328

Subarctic winter warming promotes soil microbial resilience to freeze–thaw cycles and enhances the microbial carbon use efficiency, Lí et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.17040

Thermal sensitivity of field metabolic rate predicts differential futures for bluefin tuna juveniles across the Atlantic Ocean, Trueman et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-41930-2

Tracing growth patterns in cod (Gadus morhua L.) using bioenergetic modelling, Funk et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.1002/ece3.10751

Using warming tolerances to predict understory plant responses to climate change, Wei et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17064

Variance in heat tolerance in bumble bees correlates with species geographic range and is associated with several environmental and biological factors, Feuerborn et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.1002/ece3.10730

Vector-Borne Disease in Wild Mammals Impacted by Urban Expansion and Climate Change, Shultz et al., EcoHealth 10.1007/s10393-023-01650-x

GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

Century-scale carbon sequestration flux throughout the ocean by the biological pump, Ricour et al., Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-023-01318-9

Herbivore-shrub interactions influence ecosystem respiration and BVOC composition in the subarctic, Brachmann et al., Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-2023-14

Long-term summer warming reduces post-fire carbon dioxide losses in an arctic heath tundra, Xu et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109823

Methane emissions due to reservoir flushing: a significant emission pathway?, Lessmann et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-20-4057-2023

Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001

CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

Methods that equate temporary carbon storage with permanent CO2 emission reductions lead to false claims on temperature alignment, Brander & Broekhoff, Carbon Management Open Access pdf 10.1080/17583004.2023.2284714

Responses of globally important phytoplankton species to olivine dissolution products and implications for carbon dioxide removal via ocean alkalinity enhancement, Hutchins et al., Open Access pdf 10.1101/2023.04.08.536121

Stabilisation of soil organic matter with rock dust partially counteracted by plants, Buss et al., Open Access pdf 10.1101/2023.06.02.543347

The carbon stock potential of the restored mangrove ecosystem of Pasarbanggi, Rembang, Central Java, Soeprobowati et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2023.106257

Decarbonization

CEI Optimization: Enable the High Capacity and Reversible Sodium-Ion Batteries for Future Massive Energy Storage, Han et al., Advanced Energy and Sustainability Research Open Access pdf 10.1002/aesr.202300166

Method for estimating the future annual mass of decommissioned wind turbine blade material in Denmark, Bech Abrahamsen et al., Wind Energy Open Access pdf 10.1002/we.2882

Multi-use of offshore wind farms with low-trophic aquaculture can help achieve global sustainability goals, Maar et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-023-01116-6

MXene-Modified Aramid Aerogel for Advanced Solar Steam Generation, Singh et al., Advanced Energy and Sustainability Research Open Access pdf 10.1002/aesr.202300126

The Impact of Wind Energy on Air Pollution and Emergency Department Visits, Fell & Morrill Morrill, Environmental and Resource Economics 10.1007/s10640-023-00825-y

Climate change communications & cognition

Mapping the automation of Twitter communications on climate change, sustainability, and environmental crises — a review of current research, Daume et al., Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 10.1016/j.cosust.2023.101384

Phasing-out ‘coal tradition’ in favour of ‘renewable colonialism’: how the press contributes to the discursive (de)legitimization of coal and renewables in a coal region in transition, Biddau et al., Sustainability Science Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11625-023-01420-2

The effects of communicating uncertainty around statistics, on public trust, Kerr et al., Royal Society Open Science Open Access pdf 10.1098/rsos.230604

The personal and the social: Twin contributors to climate action, Bradley et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology Open Access 10.1016/j.jenvp.2023.102194

The politics of eco-anxiety: Anthropocene dread from depoliticisation to repoliticisation, Davidson, The Anthropocene Review 10.1177/20530196231211854

Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

Contract farming and smallholder farmers’ resilience to climate change and variability in northern Ghana, Dapilah, Regional Environmental Change 10.1007/s10113-023-02151-x

Loss-of-function gs3 allele decreases methane emissions and increases grain yield in rice, Kwon et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-023-01872-5

Temperature impacts on cotton yield superposed by effects on plant growth and verticillium wilt infection in China, Zhang et al., International Journal of Biometeorology 10.1007/s00484-023-02583-4

Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

Artificial neural network-empowered projected future rainfall intensity-duration-frequency curves under Changing climate, Takhellambam et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.107122

Climate change, hailstorm incidence, and livelihood security: a perspective from Kashmir valley India, Bhat et al., Natural Hazards 10.1007/s11069-023-06307-0

Disentangling the Sources of Uncertainties in the Projection of Flood Risk Across the Central United States (Iowa), Michalek et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl105852

Future Projections of Low-Level Atmospheric Circulation Patterns Over South Tropical South America: Impacts on Precipitation and Amazon Dry Season Length, Agudelo et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2023jd038658

MOPREDAS&century database and precipitation trends in mainland Spain, 1916–2020, Gonzalez?Hidalgo et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.8060

Potential impacts of 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels on drought modes over Eastern Africa, Nguvava & Abiodun, Climatic Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-023-03631-z

Raising dikes and managed realignment may be insufficient for maintaining current flood risk along the German Baltic Sea coast, Kiesel et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-01100-0

Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) evolution over the Iberian Peninsula during the 21st century, Lorenzo et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.107132

Climate change economics

An assessment of different transition pathways to a green global economy, Shayegh et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-023-01109-5

Economic burden of premature deaths attributable to different heatwaves in China: A multi-site study, 2014?2019, ZHAO et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.11.003

Effects of foreign finance measures on the decoupling of greenhouse gas emissions from economic development: a panel study of 97 developing countries over the period 2000–2018, Ryu & Lee, Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2023.2273488

Navigating financial stability through the dual challenges of climate change and pandemics, D’Orazio, Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability Open Access 10.1016/j.cosust.2023.101386

Projections of the costs of medium- and heavy-duty battery-electric and fuel cell vehicles (2020-2040) and related economic issues, Burke et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2023.101343

What do we know about spillover between the climate change futures market and the carbon futures market?, Hoque et al., Climatic Change 10.1007/s10584-023-03640-y

Climate change mitigation public policy research

Beyond emissions trading to a negative carbon economy: a proposed carbon removal obligation and its implementation, Bednar et al., Climate Policy Open Access pdf 10.1080/14693062.2023.2276858

Carbon Footprint of Railway Projects Under the Belt and Road Initiative and the Future Low-Carbon Pathways, Wang et al., Earth's Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef003972

Cities and regions tackle climate change mitigation but often focus on less effective solutions, Burley Farr et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-01108-6

Community forest governance and synergies among carbon, biodiversity and livelihoods, Fischer et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-023-01863-6

Effective mechanism for trading generation rights in the context of carbon emission rights, Fu et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2023.101351

How policies and actor strategies affect electric vehicle diffusion and wider sustainability transitions, Ryghaug & Skjølsvold, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2207888119

Impacts of different hydrogen demand levels and climate policy scenarios on the Chilean integrated hydrogen–electricity network, Jorquera-Copier et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113881

Improved estimates of carbon dioxide emissions from drained peatlands support a reduction in emission factor, He & Roulet, Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-01091-y

Perceived feasibility and potential barriers of a net-zero system transition among Japanese experts, Ju et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-01079-8

Public discourses and government interventions behind China’s ambitious carbon neutrality goal, Zhang et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-01101-z

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

Assessment of future prediction of urban growth and climate change in district Multan, Pakistan using CA-Markov method, Hussain et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2023.101766

Defining successful climate services for adaptation with experts, Boon et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2023.103641

Private provisioning of public adaptation: Integration of cognitive-behavioral, adaptive capacity, and institutional approaches, Eakin et al., Global Environmental Change 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102771

Climate change impacts on human health

A physiological approach for assessing human survivability and liveability to heat in a changing climate, Vanos et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-023-43121-5

Other

Detection and quantification of wave trends in the Mediterranean basin, Aristodemo et al., Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2023.101413

New estimation of critical insolation – CO2 relationship for triggering glacial inception, Talento et al., Open Access 10.5194/cp-2023-81

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Good practices: Co-producing integrated climate, environment and health services, Shumake-Guillemot et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000304

Slaying the methane minotaur, Nisbet, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2318019120

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Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Biden's Fossil Fuel Fail: How U.S. Oil and Gas Supply Rises Under the Inflation Reduction Act, Exacerbating Environmental Injustice, Stockman et al., Oil Change International

The authors suggest that the United States is prolonging the era of fossil fuels. The implications of these findings are stark for everyone, but especially for frontline communities around the country living daily with increased rates of asthma, cancer, and other health and safety issues related to oil and gas production and processing. These findings underscore that the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) by itself will not drive the phase-out of oil and gas production in the United States, which is widely recognized as necessary to achieve global climate goals. In fact, the IRA enables the continued expansion of oil and gas production, keeping the United States on course to be the biggest expander of oil and gas extraction in the world through 2050 and worsening a fossil-fueled public health crisis in frontline communities.

Mission Net Zero: Charting the Path to E-Fuels in the Military, Lukas Trakimavius, NATO Energy Security Centre of Excellence

The author focuses on the complexities of decarbonizing military mobility and investigates the viability of e-fuels in facilitating this energy transition. Through a comparative analysis of various e-fuel production processes, the author evaluates their applicability in the land, sea, and air military domains. Emphasizing performance, logistics, integration, and safety, the research assesses different technological pathways to provide insights into the challenges and opportunities associated with adopting e-fuels for sustainable military operations.

U.S. Hydropower Market Report 2023 edition, Uría-Martínez et al., Oak Ridge National Laboratory

The U.S. conventional hydropower feet includes 2,252 hydropower plants with a total generating capacity of 80.58 GW. The U.S. hydropower fleet produced 28.7% of electricity from renewables and 6.2% of all electricity in 2022. Multiple U.S. hydropower datasets (capacity additions, investment in refurbishments and upgrades, turbine runner installations, hydraulic turbine trade) show declines in activity in the first few years of the 2020s relative to the average for the 2010s.

Solar+Storage for Household Back-up Power: Implications of building efficiency, load flexibility, and electrification for backup during long-duration power interruptions, Gorman et al., Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

The authors analyze the evolving role of solar+storage for home backup power during long-duration power interruptions. In particular, they evaluate how required storage sizing is impacted as homes become more efficient, flexible, and electrified. The authors use a building modeling platform to create statistically representative distributions of the existing building stock in 10 locations across the United States. They then show how the amount of battery storage required for backup power rises or falls as a series of building envelope efficiency, load flexibility, and electrification measures are applied across the building stock in each region. The authors also include sensitivities to show how backup power requirements are impacted by the timing and duration of power interruptions and explore variations in backup power requirements across the building stock within each study location.

Green Resilience Hubs An Energy and Financial Model, Gledhill et al., Yale Center for Business and Environment

The authors provide a comprehensive analysis of the feasibility of designing and financing a Green Resilience Hub (GRH). GRHs are physical facilities equipped with clean energy technologies and strategically located to offer vital services to local communities before, during, and after emergencies such as natural disasters. The primary goal of the research was to offer insights to developers and investors interested in constructing resilient infrastructure that can provide essential community services–even during disruptions to the electrical grid. The authors identified significant potential for GRHs to support communities in emergencies while also providing sustainable revenue streams during non-emergency periods.

Weathering the storm: Reducing the impact of climate risks and environmental degradation on people enduring armed conflicts, Lune Grayson and Amir Khouzam, International Committee of the Red Cross

Countries enduring armed conflict and violence are particularly vulnerable to growing climate and environmental risks because the adaptive capacity of people, systems and institutions already coping with the consequences of conflict tends to be limited. Based on case studies conducted in the Gaza Strip, northern Mozambique and eastern Niger, the authors explore avenues to strengthen the resilience to growing climate risks and environmental degradation for people living in places affected by conflict and violence.

Want to Know Where Your Pension Goes? Meet Oblivia Coalmine, Make my Money Matter

A satirical ad on how United Kingdom pension funds are investing and thus supporting oil and gas companies actions. In reality these investments are contributing directly to climate change. The ad stars Academy award winner Olivia Coleman.

Characterizing the Geothermal Lithium Resource at the Salton Sea, Dobson et al., Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

The “Salton Sea Known Geothermal Resource Area” in Imperial County, California has been identified as a potential domestic U.S. resource of lithium due to the brine-hosted lithium in the deep subsurface geothermal reservoir. The authors provide an overview of opportunities and challenges associated with developing the lithium resource in the Salton Sea geothermal reservoir, as well as potential environmental and societal impacts to the county and surrounding region. The authors measured lithium concentrations in the reservoir rocks, which were shown to vary with depth and mineralogy. These data were used to help refine conceptual and computer models of the reservoir; specifically, two complementary computer models of the reservoir were developed.

Climate Change in the American Mind: Politics & Policy, Fall 2023, Leiserowitz et al., Yale University and George Mason University

Drawing on a representative sample of the U.S. adult population, the authors describe how registered voters view a variety of domestic climate and energy policies. The survey was fielded from October 20 – 26, 2023. For example, 57% of registered voters would prefer to vote for a candidate for public office who supports action on global warming. This includes 95% of liberal Democrats, 86% of moderate/conservative Democrats, and 46% of liberal/moderate Republicans, but only 13% of conservative Republicans. 56% of registered voters think global warming should be a high or very high priority for the president and Congress. 64% of registered voters think developing sources of clean energy should be a high or very high priority for the President and Congress.

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Obtaining articles without journal subscriptions

We know it's frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. One-off paid access fees are generally astronomically priced, suitable for such as "On a Heuristic Point of View Concerning the Production and Transformation of Light"  but not as a gamble on unknowns. With a median world income of US$ 9,373, for most of us US$ 42 is significant money to wager on an article's relevance and importance. 

• Here's an excellent collection of tips and techniques for obtaining articles, legally.

• Unpaywall offers a browser extension for Chrome and Firefox that automatically indicates when an article is freely accessible and provides immediate access without further trouble. Unpaywall is also unscammy, works well, is itself offered free to use. The organizers (a legitimate nonprofit) report about a 50% success rate

• The weekly New Research catch is checked against the Unpaywall database with accessible items being flagged. Especially for just-published articles this mechansim may fail. If you're interested in an article title and it is not listed here as "open access," be sure to check the link anyway. 

How is New Research assembled?

Most articles appearing here are found via  RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance. 

Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database. 

The objective of New Research isn't to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers' impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:

• Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a "yes" to this automatically. 
• Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week's 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.

A few journals offer public access to "preprint" versions of articles for which the review process is not yet complete. For some key journals this all the mention we'll see in RSS feeds, so we include such items in New Research. These are flagged as "preprint."

The section "Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives" includes some items that are not scientific research per se but fall instead into the category of "perspectives," observations of implications of research findings, areas needing attention, etc.

Suggestions

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Journals covered

A list of journals we cover may be found here. We welcome pointers to omissions, new journals etc.

Previous edition

The previous edition of Skeptical Science New Research may be found here.