Arguments
Skeptical Science New Research for Week #7 2024
Posted on 15 February 2024 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack
Open access notables
Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course, van Westen et al., Science Advances:
Here, we show results of the first tipping event in the Community Earth System Model, including the large climate impacts of the collapse. Using these results, we develop a physics-based and observable early warning signal of AMOC tipping: the minimum of the AMOC-induced freshwater transport at the southern boundary of the Atlantic. Reanalysis products indicate that the present-day AMOC is on route to tipping. The early warning signal is a useful alternative to classical statistical ones, which, when applied to our simulated tipping event, turn out to be sensitive to the analyzed time interval before tipping.
The growing inadequacy of an open-ended Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale in a warming world, Wehner & Kossin, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences:
Global warming increases available sensible and latent heat energy, increasing the thermodynamic potential wind intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs). Supported by theory, observations, and modeling, this causes a shift in mean TC intensity, which tends to manifest most clearly at the greatest intensities. The Saffir–Simpson scale for categorizing damage based on the wind intensity of TCs was introduced in the early 1970s and remains the most commonly used metric for public communication of the level of wind hazard that a TC poses. Because the scale is open-ended and does not extend beyond category 5 (70 m/s windspeed or greater), the level of wind hazard conveyed by the scale remains constant regardless of how far the intensity extends beyond 70 m/s. This may be considered a weakness of the scale, particularly considering that the destructive potential of the wind increases exponentially.
Using climate financing wisely to address multiple crises, Läderach et al., PLOS Climate:
The existing international architecture of climate change mitigation and adaptation policy and financing holds, in principle, the potential to address not only its main purpose of climate action, but also to contribute to development outcomes and address multiple risk drivers. Examples of this exist, but for these mutual benefits to emerge, and for climate finance to contribute more significantly to crises prevention, the agendas must become more aligned. Aligning several factors may enable coherence: i) Timeframes, from short-term response to multi-year programming; ii) Planning and targeting, moving towards conflict-sensitive area-based approaches and universal access to services; iii) Institutional arrangements and partnerships, coordinated national planning and jointly implemented local action.
Phase-Locked Rossby Wave-4 Pattern Dominates the 2022-Like Concurrent Heat Extremes Across the Northern Hemisphere, Yang et al., Geophysical Research Letters:
Concurrent heat extremes (CHEs) are becoming increasingly common in the mid-high latitudes across the Northern Hemisphere (NH), underscoring the need to comprehend their spatiotemporal characteristics and underlying causes. Here we reveal a phase-locking behavior in Wave-4 pattern, particularly after mid-1990s, giving rise to a prominent CHE mode akin to heat extreme pattern observed in 2022, which swept most NH regions. Wave-4 pattern significantly amplifies the likelihood of CHEs in Eastern Europe (∼30%), Northeast Asia (∼25%), and northwestern coast of North America (∼15%), while reducing the likelihood in central North America and northern Central Asia. During 1979–2022, the identified pattern accounted for over 69.7% of the trends in heat extremes over the mid-high latitudes of the NH, directly exposing approximately 333.5 million people to heat extremes.
The complexity of pluralistic ignorance in Republican climate change policy support in the United States, Dixon et al., Communications Earth & Environment:
Most Americans fail to recognize widespread public support for climate change action. Here we investigate how this phenomenon differs for Republican supporters versus opponents of several climate change policies. Surveying a representative sample of Republican voters (N = 1000), we find that misperception of in-group support for climate action is primarily restricted to Republicans already opposed to action. Specifically, those in the minority (i.e., Republicans opposed to climate action) were more likely to erroneously perceive other Republicans as holding views on climate change policy similar to their own. While Republican supporters recognize that most Republicans support climate change policy, they may be discouraged from expressing their support due to an information environment disproportionately portraying Republicans as opposed to climate change action.
From this week's government/NGO section:
Passive Investing in a Warming World, Connor Chung and Dan Cohn, Instutue for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis
The energy transition is beginning to leave an imprint on equity markets. Fossil fuels, once a primary driver of index returns and economic growth, are becoming an increasingly risky and speculative part of passive equity portfolios. Over the last decade, shedding oil, gas, and coal has proven a winning financial strategy — even taking the recent energy crisis into account. As the sector’s historic value thesis erodes, a few high-profit quarters have been unable to reverse a decade of underperformance. The passive investment landscape is starting to reflect this shift. In recent years, equity indices with reduced fossil fuel exposure have proliferated, passed major funds’ prudence tests, and been adopted without significant transaction costs.
Hidden Threat: The Influence of Sea-Level Rise on Coastal Groundwater and the Convergence of Impacts on Municipal Infrastructure, Habel et al, Annual Reviews
Sea-level rise (SLR) is influencing coastal groundwater by both elevating the water table and shifting salinity profiles landward, making the subsurface increasingly corrosive. Low-lying coastal municipalities worldwide (potentially 1,546, according to preliminary analysis) are vulnerable to an array of impacts spurred by these phenomena, which can occur decades before SLR-induced surface inundation. Damage is accumulating across a variety of infrastructure networks that extend partially and fully beneath the ground surface. Because the resulting damage is largely concealed and imperceptible, it is largely overlooked as part of infrastructure management and planning.
118 articles in 60 journals by 661 contributing authors
Physical science of climate change, effects
Arctic marine heatwaves forced by greenhouse gases and triggered by abrupt sea-ice melt, Barkhordarian et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01215-y
Drivers of Marine Heatwaves in the Arctic Ocean, Richaud et al., 10.5194/egusphere-egu23-5780
Impacts of Climate Change on Coastal Hydrodynamics Around a Headland and Potential Headland Sediment Bypassing, Xie et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl105323
Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course, van Westen et al., Science Advances Open Access pdf 10.1126/sciadv.adk1189
Observations of climate change, effects
Arctic marine heatwaves forced by greenhouse gases and triggered by abrupt sea-ice melt, Barkhordarian et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01215-y
Historical snow and ice temperature observations document the recent warming of the Greenland ice sheet, Vandecrux et al., Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-2023-105
Recent warming trends of the Greenland ice sheet documented by historical firn and ice temperature observations and machine learning, Vandecrux et al., The Cryosphere Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-18-609-2024
Relative Contributions of Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation Dynamics and Anthropogenic Warming to the Unprecedented 2022 Yangtze River Basin Heatwave, Huang et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2023jd039330
Tropical nights in the Mediterranean: A spatiotemporal analysis of trends from 1950 to 2022, Yava?l? & Erlat, International Journal of Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.8394
Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects
A method for estimating the effect of climate change on monthly mean temperatures: September 2023 and other recent record-warm months in Helsinki, Finland, Rantanen et al., Atmospheric Science Letters Open Access pdf 10.1002/asl.1216
Beyond PCA: Additional Dimension Reduction Techniques to Consider in the Development of Climate Fingerprints, Weylandt & Swiler, Journal of Climate Open Access pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0267.1
Making climate reanalysis and CMIP6 data processing easy: two “point-and-click” cloud based user interfaces for environmental and ecological studies, Lea et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2024.1294446
Multi-Dimensional matrix MAPping (MDMAP): A new algorithm framework to derive top-of-atmosphere outgoing longwave radiation from space, Li et al., Remote Sensing of Environment 10.1016/j.rse.2024.114031
On the Importance of a Geostationary View for Tropical Cloud Feedback, Lee et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl106897
Sensitivity of AMOC Fingerprints Under Future Anthropogenic Warming, Zhu & Cheng, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl107170
Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects
Effects of CO $$&2$$ vegetation forcing on precipitation and heat extremes in China, Chen et al., Climate Dynamics Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-023-07046-5
Expanding Influence of Atlantic and Pacific Ocean Heat Transport on Winter Sea-Ice Variability in a Warming Arctic, Dörr et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023jc019900
Future projections of hurricane intensity in the southeastern U.S.: sensitivity to different Pseudo-Global Warming methods, Olschewski & Kunstmann, Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2024.1353396
Impacts of natural and anthropogenic forcings on historical and future changes in global-land surface air temperature in CMIP6–DAMIP simulations, Xu et al., Climatic Change 10.1007/s10584-024-03686-6
KNMI'23 Climate Scenarios for the Netherlands: Storyline Scenarios of Regional Climate Change, van der Wiel et al., Earth's Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef003983
Projected heatwaves in Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, China, Dong et al., Frontiers in Earth Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/feart.2024.1286012
Representing rainfall extremes over the Indo-Gangetic Plains using CORDEX-CORE simulations, Pant et al., Climate Dynamics 10.1007/s00382-023-07095-w
Stronger Oceanic CO2 Sink in Eddy-Resolving Simulations of Global Warming, Couespel et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl106172
The Effect of Climate Change on Forest Fire Danger and Severity in the Canadian Boreal Forests for the Period 1976–2100, Wang, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023jd039118
Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection
Constraining the carbon cycle in JULES-ES-1.0, McNeall et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-1059-2024
Drivers of coupled climate model biases in representing Labrador Sea convection, Liu et al., Climate Dynamics Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-023-07068-z
How well are aerosol–cloud interactions represented in climate models? – Part 1: Understanding the sulfate aerosol production from the 2014–15 Holuhraun eruption, Jordan et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-24-1939-2024
SPEEDY-NEMO: performance and applications of a fully-coupled intermediate-complexity climate model, Ruggieri et al., Climate Dynamics Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-023-07097-8
Cryosphere & climate change
Brief communication: Rapid acceleration of the Brunt Ice Shelf after calving of iceberg A-81, Marsh et al., Open Access pdf 10.5194/egusphere-2023-1949
Disentangling the drivers of future Antarctic ice loss with a historically calibrated ice-sheet model, Coulon et al., The Cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-18-653-2024
Importance of temporary and permanent snow for new second homes, Falk et al., International Journal of Biometeorology Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00484-022-02420-0
Oceanographic Variability in Cumberland Bay, South Georgia, and Its Implications for Glacier Retreat, Zanker et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023jc020507
Patterns and Trend Analysis of Rain-on-Snow Events using Passive Microwave Satellite Data over the Canadian Arctic Archipelago Since 1987, Sasseville et al., Journal of Hydrometeorology 10.1175/jhm-d-22-0218.1
Process and numerical simulation of landslide sliding caused by permafrost degradation and seasonal precipitation, Zhang et al., Natural Hazards 10.1007/s11069-024-06433-3
Recent warming trends of the Greenland ice sheet documented by historical firn and ice temperature observations and machine learning, Vandecrux et al., The Cryosphere Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-18-609-2024
Simulations and Prediction of Historical and Future Maximum Freeze Depth in the Northern Hemisphere, Chen et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2023jd039420
Sea level & climate change
Modeling coastal inundation for adaptation to climate change at local scale: the case of Marche Region (central Italy), Baldoni et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2024.1334625
The Influence of Future Changes in Tidal Range, Storm Surge, and Mean Sea Level on the Emergence of Chronic Flooding, Hague & Talke, Earth's Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef003993
Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry
Abrupt Holocene ice loss due to thinning and ungrounding in the Weddell Sea Embayment, Grieman et al., Nature Geoscience Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41561-024-01375-8
Impact-induced initiation of Snowball Earth: A model study, Fu et al., Science Advances Open Access pdf 10.1126/sciadv.adk5489
Oxygen isotope ensemble reveals Earth’s seawater, temperature, and carbon cycle history, Isson & Rauzi, Science 10.1126/science.adg1366
Biology & climate change, related geochemistry
A Century of Reforestation Reduced Anthropogenic Warming in the Eastern United States, Barnes et al., Earth's Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef003663
Applying ensemble climate models to predict the fate of marginal coral reefs already existing at thermal and turbidity limits in arid tropical Australia, Cartwright et al., Climate Resilience and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1002/cli2.66
Are sub-alpine species' seedling emergence and establishment in the alpine limited by climate or biotic interactions?, , Bryozoan Paleobiology Open Access 10.1002/9781118454961.ch5
Climate is changing, are European bats too? A multispecies analysis of trends in body size, Russo et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.1002/ece3.10872
Cyclones and skinny dolphins: adaptation pathways for Pacific communities under rapid global change, Colloff et al., Climate and Development Open Access pdf 10.1080/17565529.2024.2307407
Evaluating genotyping-in-thousands by sequencing as a genetic monitoring tool for a climate sentinel mammal using non-invasive and archival samples, Arpin et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.1002/ece3.10934
Experimental evidence for adaptive divergence in response to a warmed habitat reveals roles for morphology, allometry and parasite resistance, Smith et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.1002/ece3.10907
Investigating odonates' response to climate change in Great Britain: A tale of two strategies, O'Neill et al., Diversity and Distributions Open Access pdf 10.1111/ddi.13816
Polar bear energetic and behavioral strategies on land with implications for surviving the ice-free period, Pagano et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-44682-1
Reproducible WiSDM: a workflow for reproducible invasive alien species risk maps under climate change scenarios using standardized open data, Davis et al., Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.3389/fevo.2024.1148895
Season-specific impacts of climate change on canopy-forming seaweed communities, Truong et al., Open Access pdf 10.22541/au.168963215.58364557/v1
The differential contribution of coyotes and passerines on future biotic carbon storage through juniper seed dispersal, Draper et al., Ecography 10.1111/ecog.06958
The positive impact of extreme heat on vegetation growth in Northeast Asia, Liu et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.109918
Trait-mediated processes and per capita contributions to ecosystem functioning depend on conspecific density and climate conditions, Sanders et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01237-6
Unveiling the role of climate in spatially synchronized locust outbreak risks, Liu et al., Science Advances 10.1126/sciadv.adj1164
GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry
A detectable change in the air-sea CO2 flux estimate from sailboat measurements, Behncke et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-024-53159-0
A Spatially Explicit Uncertainty Analysis of the Air-Sea CO2 Flux From Observations, Jersild & Landschützer Landschützer, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl106636
Drought response of the boreal forest carbon sink is driven by understorey–tree composition, Martínez-García et al., Nature Geoscience Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41561-024-01374-9
Dynamic urban land extensification is projected to lead to imbalances in the global land-carbon equilibrium, McManamay et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01231-y
Elevated atmospheric CO2 drives decreases in stable soil organic carbon in arid ecosystems: Evidence from a physical fractionation and organic compound analysis, Jensen et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17175
Experimental warming accelerates positive soil priming in a temperate grassland ecosystem, Tao et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-024-45277-0
Forecasting enteric methane emission using autoregressive integrated moving average and Holt–Winters time series models in South Asian countries, Dayoub et al., International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology 10.1007/s13762-023-05320-x
Future transition from forests to shrublands and grasslands in the western United States is expected to reduce carbon storage, Kodero et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01253-6
Impacts of Carbonate Buffering on Atmospheric Equilibration of CO2, δ13CDIC, and Δ14CDIC in Rivers and Streams, Winnick & Saccardi, Open Access pdf 10.31223/x5w375
Methane oxidation minimizes emissions and offsets to carbon burial in mangroves, Cotovicz et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-024-01927-1
Research on hotspots and evolutionary trends of blue carbon sinks: a bibliometric analysis based on CiteSpace, Xiang & Cao, Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-024-04522-8
Seasonal Wetlands Make a Relatively Limited Contribution to the Dissolved Carbon Pool of a Lowland Headwater Tropical Stream, Solano et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023jg007556
Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001
Stronger Oceanic CO2 Sink in Eddy-Resolving Simulations of Global Warming, Couespel et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl106172
The hidden roots of wetland methane emissions, Määttä & Malhotra, Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.17127
CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering Decarbonization
Grid and mobility interdependence in the eventual electrification of operational minibus taxis in cities in sub-Saharan Africa, Pretorius et al., Energy for Sustainable Development Open Access 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101411
Heat pumps for all? Distributions of the costs and benefits of residential air-source heat pumps in the United States, Wilson et al., Joule 10.1016/j.joule.2024.01.022
Investigating the influence of building shape and insulation thickness on energy efficiency of buildings, Marincu et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101384
Which wind turbine types are needed in a cost-optimal renewable energy system?, Hodel et al., Wind Energy Open Access pdf 10.1002/we.2900
Geoengineering climate
Effects of intermittent aerosol forcing on the stratocumulus-to-cumulus transition, Prabhakaran et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-24-1919-2024
Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Geoengineering Would Mitigate Greenhouse Gas-Induced Drying and Affect Global Drought Patterns, Liu et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2023jd039988
Climate change communications & cognition
Climate change scepticism and its impacts on individuals’ engagement with climate change mitigation and adaptation to heat in Hong Kong: A two-wave population-based study, Liao et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology 10.1016/j.jenvp.2024.102251
Globally representative evidence on the actual and perceived support for climate action, Andre et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-024-01925-3
The complexity of pluralistic ignorance in Republican climate change policy support in the United States, Dixon et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01240-x
The social anatomy of climate change denial in the United States, Yang et al., Open Access pdf 10.21203/rs.3.rs-2163106/v1
The “Greta Effect” on Social Media: A Systematic Review of Research on Thunberg’s Impact on Digital Climate Change Communication, Mede & Schroeder, Environmental Communication 10.1080/17524032.2024.2314028
Who Sets the Agenda for Climate Change in China? A Longitudinal Analysis of Primary Actors that Drive Online Discussions on Social Media, Ji et al., Environmental Communication 10.1080/17524032.2024.2314033
Whose Authority Drives the Narrative?: Framing the Spread of Mountain Pine Beetle in Canadian News Media, Hutchen et al., Environmental Communication Open Access pdf 10.1080/17524032.2024.2306580
Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change
A global meta-analysis of yield-scaled N2O emissions and its mitigation efforts for maize, wheat, and rice, Yao et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17177
Climate change effect on optimal N recommendation and yield of rice and wheat crops, Dubey et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-024-04866-1
Climate risks to soy-maize double-cropping due to Amazon deforestation, Leite?Filho et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8381
Exploring the Impact of Climate Change on Tea Production in Bangladesh: Analyzing Short- and Long-Run Asymmetrical Effects, Mila et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-024-04530-8
Forecasting enteric methane emission using autoregressive integrated moving average and Holt–Winters time series models in South Asian countries, Dayoub et al., International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology 10.1007/s13762-023-05320-x
From gender gaps to gender-transformative climate-smart agriculture, Huyer et al., Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability Open Access 10.1016/j.cosust.2024.101415
How do we motivate farmers to adopt low-carbon production? Analysis of extrinsic incentives’ internalization, Zhu & Chen, Journal of Environmental Psychology 10.1016/j.jenvp.2023.102186
Self-governance mediates small-scale fishing strategies, vulnerability and adaptive response, Frawley et al., Global Environmental Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102805
Soil properties shape the heterogeneity of denitrification and N2O emissions across large-scale flooded paddy soils, Tang et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17176
Stay or go? Geographic variation in risks due to climate change for fishing fleets that adapt in-place or adapt on-the-move, Kennie & Middlehurst Taylor Frisse Murray Whiteman Rohde Littler Walter Plaisir Xiao Tsunoda , Leadership Transitions in Universities Open Access 10.4324/9780429331114-15
Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change
Climate Change Contributions to Increasing Compound Flooding Risk in New York City, Sarhadi et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-23-0177.1
Climate Change Will Impact Surface Water Extents and Dynamics Across the Central United States, Vanderhoof et al., Earth's Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef004106
MOPREDAS¢ury database and precipitation trends in mainland Spain, 1916–2020, Gonzalez?Hidalgo et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.8060
Prediction of extreme rainfall events in 21st century - The results based on Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo, Jiao et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.101822
The growing inadequacy of an open-ended Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale in a warming world, Wehner & Kossin, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access pdf 10.1073/pnas.2308901121
The sensitivity of the North American Monsoon to Gulf of California Sea surface temperatures, Wallace & Minder Minder, Climate Dynamics Open Access 10.1007/s00382-023-07057-2
Climate change economics
Challenges and countermeasures for developing countries in addressing loss and damage caused by climate change, Liu et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2024.02.003
How rising temperatures affect electricity consumption and economic development in Mexico, Germán-Soto & Bordallo Favela, Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-024-04527-3
Impact of financial inclusion, economic growth, natural resource rents, and natural energy use on carbon emissions: the MMQR approach, Shang et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-024-04513-9
Using climate financing wisely to address multiple crises, Läderach et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000355
Climate change mitigation public policy research
A bioenergy-focused versus a reforestation-focused mitigation pathway yields disparate carbon storage and climate responses, Cheng et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access pdf 10.1073/pnas.2306775121
Analysis, evaluation and implications of Rhode Island’s “2021 Act on Climate” for response to climate change, Kim & Park, Climatic Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-024-03680-y
Citizen-led emissions reduction: Enhancing enjoyment and understanding for diverse citizen engagement with air pollution and climate change decision making, Fogg-Rogers et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103692
Climate policy contradictions in light of the policy paradigms - the case of the Visegrád Countries, Kovács et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103689
Underappreciated Emission Spikes From Power Plants During Heatwaves Observed From Space: Case Studies in India and China, Liu et al., Earth's Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef003937
Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research
Comparing the warming effects of different urban forms under projected climate change in China's Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area, Chen et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.101824
Climate change impacts on human health
Contribution of climate change to the spatial expansion of West Nile virus in Europe, Erazo et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-024-45290-3
Exploring warm extremes in South America: insights into regional climate change projections through dry-bulb and wet-bulb temperatures, Coronato et al., Climate Dynamics 10.1007/s00382-024-07140-2
Climate change & geopolitics
Dismantling green colonialism: energy and climate justice in the Arab region, Khaira & Ranti , Environmental Politics 10.1080/09644016.2024.2313654
Other
Increase in western North Pacific tropical cyclone intensification rates and their northwestward shifts, Huang et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107292
Phase-Locked Rossby Wave-4 Pattern Dominates the 2022-Like Concurrent Heat Extremes Across the Northern Hemisphere, Yang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl107106
Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives
Cat 6 hurricanes have arrived, Mann, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access pdf 10.1073/pnas.2322597121
Development transitions for fossil fuel-producing low and lower–middle income countries in a carbon-constrained world, Foster et al., Nature Energy 10.1038/s41560-023-01440-3
Editorial: Impacts of global change on protective forests in mountain areas, Bottero et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access pdf 10.3389/ffgc.2024.1375285
How to transform Africa’s food system, Ogega et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01250-9
Melting ice core archives, , Nature Geoscience Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41561-024-01385-6
Sector silos in climate action- A missed opportunity to prioritize health equity, Khanal et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000349
Toward a US Framework for Continuity of Satellite Observations of Earth's Climate and for Supporting Societal Resilience, Waliser & , Earth's Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef003757
Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change
Hidden Threat: The Influence of Sea-Level Rise on Coastal Groundwater and the Convergence of Impacts on Municipal Infrastructure, Habel et al., Annual Reviews
Sea-level rise (SLR) is influencing coastal groundwater by both elevating the water table and shifting salinity profiles landward, making the subsurface increasingly corrosive. Low-lying coastal municipalities worldwide (potentially 1,546, according to preliminary analysis) are vulnerable to an array of impacts spurred by these phenomena, which can occur decades before SLR-induced surface inundation. Damage is accumulating across a variety of infrastructure networks that extend partially and fully beneath the ground surface. Because the resulting damage is largely concealed and imperceptible, it is largely overlooked as part of infrastructure management and planning. Here, we provide an overview of SLR-influenced coastal groundwater and related processes that have the potential to damage societally critical infrastructure and mobilize urban contamination. In an effort to promote research efforts that can inform effective adaptation and management, we discuss various impacts to critical infrastructure and propose actions based on literature focused specifically on SLR-influenced coastal groundwater.
Potential Hydrodynamic Impacts of Offshore Wind Energy on Nantucket Shoals Regional Ecology, Hofmann et al., National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
The transition to renewable energy has spurred many efforts to scale up the U.S. portfolio of efficient clean energy resources, including the development of offshore wind farms. The Nantucket Shoals region off the coast of Massachusetts is the first large scale wind farm installation under development in U.S. waters. To ensure Nantucket Shoals region offshore wind energy installations are being planned, constructed, and developed in an environmentally responsible way the authors evaluate the potential for offshore wind farms in the Nantucket Shoals region to affect oceanic physical processes, and, in turn, how those hydrodynamic alterations might affect local to regional ecosystems. Of particular interest are the potential effects of hydrodynamic changes on zooplankton productivity and aggregations, which may affect foraging for the critically endangered North Atlantic right whale. The authors found the impacts of offshore wind projects on the North Atlantic right whale and the availability of their prey in the Nantucket Shoals region will likely be difficult to distinguish from the significant impacts of climate change and other influences on the ecosystem. Further study and monitoring of the oceanography and ecology of the Nantucket Shoals region is needed to fully understand the impact of future wind farms. This authors recommend conducting observational studies and modeling that will advance understanding of potential hydrodynamic effects and their consequent impacts on ecology in the Nantucket Shoals region during all phases of wind energy development.
Addressing Regulatory Challenges to Tribal Solar Deployment, Beshilas et al., National Renewable Energy Laboratory
Tribal land in the United States represents approximately 2% of the country’s total landmass and holds more than 5% of solar photovoltaic (PV) potential. This resource is largely untapped. Many Tribes are actively seeking to engage in solar development; a review of 35 Tribal strategic energy plans in 2019 revealed that 32 of 35 Tribes were exploring solar options for their communities. Many Tribes also cited regulatory hurdles to achieving these goals. The authors seek to unlock some of this potential by bringing Tribal, regulatory, utility, and other stakeholders together to articulate key barriers to Tribal solar adoption and develop replicable solutions. By increasing institutional capacity and developing frameworks, trainings, and a targeted technical document repository for regulatory bodies, utilities, and Tribes, this project can help expand an emerging market.
The 10th National Risk Assessment Atrocious Air, Alfaro et al., First Street
There are growing concerns that climate change impacts are undoing some of the progress the US has made through regulations and policy on clean air. This trend has been referred to as a “climate penalty”, whereby changing environmental conditions are inducing negative effects which erase some of the progress made through federal and local regulatory policies. Changes in environmental conditions, such as extreme heat, drought, and wildfires, are contributing to the increase in the levels of specific pollutants (O3 and PM2.5, specifically), often to concentrations above safe levels in much of the country. The “climate penalty” is not felt equally across the country, with some of the most dramatic effects seen in recent upticks in PM2.5 from wildfire smoke in the West, and growing pockets of extreme Ozone exposure. Using the newly created First Street - Air Quality Model (FS-AQM), the authors find continued exposure as well as climate-related increases in poor air quality due to the growing incidence of wildfires, extreme heat events, and their negative interactions with other environmental and anthropogenic conditions. The results show that there are approximately 14.3 million properties (~10% of all properties) in the US that are estimated to have a week or more (7+ days) of unhealthy air quality days solely from PM2.5 in the current climate conditions. Of those, almost 5.7 million properties (~4%) may experience two or more weeks (14+ days) annually of smoke-driven unhealthy air quality days.
State of the World’s Migratory Species, Davis et al., United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre
While some migratory species listed under Convention on the Conservation of Migratory Species of Wild Animals (CMS) are improving, nearly half (44 per cent) are showing population declines. More than one-in-five (22 per cent) of CMS-listed species are threatened with extinction. Nearly all (97 per cent) of CMS-listed fish are threatened with extinction. The extinction risk is growing for migratory species globally, including those not listed under CMS. The two greatest threats to both CMS-listed and all migratory species are overexploitation and habitat loss due to human activity. Three out of four CMS-listed species are impacted by habitat loss, degradation and fragmentation, and seven out of ten CMS-listed species are impacted by overexploitation (including intentional taking as well as incidental capture). Climate change, pollution and invasive species are also having profound impacts on migratory species.
Analysis of Lifecycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Natural Gas and Coal Powered Electricity, Lesley Feldman and David McCabe, Clean Air Task Force
Global emission changes caused by the use of additional U.S. gas exports for electric power generation may be additive to emissions from baseline coal production and consumption, rather than replacing those emissions, or compete with zero-carbon electricity, particularly in developing economies. Even assuming one-to-one displacement of coal with gas generation in developing countries, given the magnitude of measured emissions from the natural gas supply chain, there may be little or no GHG benefit from displacing coal with gas. Even where there is a slight benefit of gas vs. coal, the analysis shows that the use of unabated natural gas for power generation in developing countries is not consistent with achieving climate goals. The analysis further shows that the use of natural gas for power generation is only consistent with decarbonization if the upstream and downstream CO2?and CH4 emissions from natural gas are maximally mitigated?including methane abatement for gas and utilization of CCS for power plant CO2. Evidence does not show that U.S. gas is cleaner than average global gas, so displacing other sources of natural gas with U.S. LNG may not decrease GHG emissions.
The Economics of the Food System Transformation, Laderchi et al., Food System Economics Commission
The authors identify the elements of what a transformation from today’s food systems to an inclusive, health-enhancing, and environmentally sustainable global food system entails. It shows that such a transformation is not only biophysically and technically feasible; it offers immense economic benefits to societies across the world. The net benefits of achieving a food system transformation are worth 5 to 10 trillion USD a year, equivalent to between 4 and 8 percent of global GDP in 2020. Combined with transitions taking place outside the realm of food, notably to low-emission energy, a food system transformation can ensure that global warming stays well below 1.5 degrees C at the end of this century.
A Maximum Speed Global Climate Rescue Plan, Merrill et al., Climate North Star
As the nation and world experience climate impacts of increasing frequency and ferocity one question has become central and urgent. How quickly can we execute a maximum-speed global climate rescue plan? And what would be the impact on global temperature and other key metrics of such a maximum speed transformation? Climate North Star is a proposal that answers these questions in a scientifically grounded way. Implementing the maximum Climate North Star recommendations would cause the global average temperature to peak at 1.3 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by 2030; yield a 1 degree Celsius or lower global average temperature by 2100; limit atmospheric CO2 concentrations to 428 ppm by 2030 falling to 372 ppm by 2100; and limit 2100 sea level rise to 5 inches below the most aggressive IPCC scenarios, returning in a few centuries to pre-industrial conditions.
Passive Investing in a Warming World, Connor Chung and Dan Cohn, Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis
The energy transition is beginning to leave an imprint on equity markets. Fossil fuels, once a primary driver of index returns and economic growth, are becoming an increasingly risky and speculative part of passive equity portfolios. Over the last decade, shedding oil, gas, and coal has proven a winning financial strategy — even taking the recent energy crisis into account. As the sector’s historic value thesis erodes, a few high-profit quarters have been unable to reverse a decade of underperformance. The passive investment landscape is starting to reflect this shift. In recent years, equity indices with reduced fossil fuel exposure have proliferated, passed major funds’ prudence tests, and been adopted without significant transaction costs.
Protecting Population Health in a Climate Emergency, Patricia Daly, Vancouver Coastal Health
The author describes the impacts of climate change on population health and examines the most significant effects experienced and anticipated in the Vancouver, Canada, region. The author also documents significant work already underway from local governments, Indigenous communities, and community partners to mitigate climate change and adapt to protect those at risk. Some of the impacts identified include drinking water systems in many smaller communities in the Vancouver region are at risk of disruption or failure in the event of drought or flooding. Indigenous communities have identified that changes to the climate in the region create obstacles for many Indigenous people to engage in cultural practices, potentially impacting nutritional and spiritual health and well-being, and a citizen science project shows indoor temperatures get dangerously hot within housing in the region during hot weather events, particularly multi-unit dwellings without air conditioning.
Obtaining articles without journal subscriptions
We know it's frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. One-off paid access fees are generally astronomically priced, suitable for such as "On a Heuristic Point of View Concerning the Production and Transformation of Light" but not as a gamble on unknowns. With a median world income of US$ 9,373, for most of us US$ 42 is significant money to wager on an article's relevance and importance.
- Here's an excellent collection of tips and techniques for obtaining articles, legally.
- Unpaywall offers a browser extension for Chrome and Firefox that automatically indicates when an article is freely accessible and provides immediate access without further trouble. Unpaywall is also unscammy, works well, is itself offered free to use. The organizers (a legitimate nonprofit) report about a 50% success rate
- The weekly New Research catch is checked against the Unpaywall database with accessible items being flagged. Especially for just-published articles this mechansim may fail. If you're interested in an article title and it is not listed here as "open access," be sure to check the link anyway.
How is New Research assembled?
Most articles appearing here are found via RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance.
Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database.
The objective of New Research isn't to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers' impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:
- Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a "yes" to this automatically.
- Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week's 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.
A few journals offer public access to "preprint" versions of articles for which the review process is not yet complete. For some key journals this all the mention we'll see in RSS feeds, so we include such items in New Research. These are flagged as "preprint."
The section "Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives" includes some items that are not scientific research per se but fall instead into the category of "perspectives," observations of implications of research findings, areas needing attention, etc.
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