Extreme weather isn't caused by global warming

The 30 major droughts of the 20th century were likely natural in all respects; and, hence, they are "indicative of what could also happen in the future," as Narisma et al. state in their concluding paragraph. And happen they will. Consequently, the next time a serious drought takes hold of some part of the world and the likes of Al Gore blame it on the "carbon footprints" of you and your family, ask them why just the opposite of what their hypothesis suggests actually occurred over the course of the 20th century, i.e., why, when the earth warmed - and at a rate and to a degree that they claim was unprecedented over thousands of years - the rate-of-occurrence of severe regional droughts actually declined. (source: CO2 Science)

Comments 1 to 3:

1. neilperth at 14:11 PM on 25 October, 2009
   "There is growing empirical evidence that warming temperatures cause more intense hurricanes, heavier rainfalls and flooding, increased conditions for wildfires and dangerous heat waves".
   
   Does the above statement mean that the studies which show that there is no apparent link between temperature rise and hurricanes, rainfall, flooding, fires and heatwaves, are somehow not scientific ?
2. Sam Spade at 09:42 AM on 26 October, 2009
   BUSH ADMINISTRATION LINKS EXTREME WEATHER TO GLOBAL WARMING
   Droughts, heavy rain, heat waves, wildfires and intense hurricanes are more likely to affect North America because of global warming's effect on extreme weather, the Bush Administration's Climate Change Science Program said Thursday.
   There's high confidence that the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events has already been influenced by global warming, and even greater confidence that more expensive, damaging and deadly weather is to come as temperatures continue to rise...
   Free Republic June 20, 2008
   
   Always remember the extreme weather/global warming mantra: "No particular weather event...can be blamed on something so general."
3. Sam Spade at 13:45 PM on 8 November, 2009
   By mid-century, annual average river runoff and water availibility are projected to increase by 10-40% at high latitudes and in some wet tropical areas, and decrease by 10-30% over some dry regions at mid-latitudes and in the dry tropics; some of which are presently water stressed areas...
   Drought affected areas will likely increase in extent. Heavy precipitation events, which are very likely to increase in frequency, will augment flood risk.
   IPCC AR4 WGII Summary for Policymakers.
   
   In a warmer future climate...Models project increased summer dryness and winter wetness in most parts of the northern middle and high latitudes. Summer dryness indicates a greater risk of drought. Along with the risk of drying, there is an increased chance of intense precipitation and flooding due to the greater water-holding capacity of a warmer atmosphere. This has already been observed and is projected to continue because in a warmer world, precipitation tends to be concentrated into more intense events, with longer periods of little precipitation in between. Therefore, intense and heavy downpours would be interspersed with longer relatively dry periods...
   IPCC AR4 WGI FAQ 10.1
   
   The warmer climate therefore increases the risks of both drought - where it is not raining - and floods - where it is - but at different times and or places. For instance, the summer of 2oo2 in Europe brought widespread floods but was followed a year later in 2003 by record-breaking heat waves and drought. The distribution and timing of floods and drought is most profoundly affected by the cycle of EL Nino events...
   ...overall trends in precipitation are indicated by the Palmer Drought Severity Index...which is a measure of soil moisture using precipitation and crude estimates of changes in evaporation.
   (The PDSI graph shown roughly increases below the "0" line until about 1977, after which its all above the line.)
   IPCC AR4 WGI FAQ 3.2
   
   Drought is easier to measure (than heavy precipitation events) because of its long duration...The Palmer Drought Severity Index calculated from the middle of the 20th century shows a large drying trend over many Northern Hemisphere land areas since the mid-1950's, with widespread drying over much of southern Eurasia, northern Africa, Canada and Alaska...and an opposite trend in eastern North and South America...Decreases in precipitation over land since the 1950s are the likely main cause for the drying trends, although large surface warming during the last two to three decades has also likely contributed to the drying...
   IPCC AR4 WGI FAQ 3.3

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