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Climate Hustle

What do the CERN experiments tell us about global warming?

What the science says...

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Even the CERN scientist who ran the experiment admits that it "says nothing about a possible cosmic-ray effect on clouds and climate."

Climate Myth...

CERN CLOUD experiment proved cosmic rays are causing global warming

"The new [CERN] findings point to cosmic rays and the sun — not human activities — as the dominant controller of climate on Earth...CERN, and the Danes, have in all likelihood found the path to the Holy Grail of climate science" [Lawrence Solomon]

CERN scientist Jasper Kirkby, about his recent cosmic ray experiment:

"At the moment, it actually says nothing about a possible cosmic-ray effect on clouds and climate, but it's a very important first step"

At CERN, Europe's high-energy physics laboratory near Geneva, Switzerland, scientists created an experiment to test how clouds are formed.  The experiment ties in with a climate "skeptic" hypothesis that cosmic rays (charged particles from space) are causing global warming.  As the hypothesis goes:

Solar magnetic field gets stronger => More cosmic rays are blocked from reaching Earth => Clouds, which are hypothetically seeded by cosmic rays, are less likely to form => Fewer clouds means more sunlight reaches Earth's surface => More sunlight means warmer temperatures => global warming!

Many climate "skeptic" bloggers and commenters have claimed that the CERN experiment has proven that cosmic rays are causing global warming, and that the experiment is "the final nail in the man-made global warming coffin" (i.e. here and here and here and here).

In reality, the CERN experiment only tests the bolded step in this list of requirements for cosmic rays to be causing global warming:

  1. Solar magnetic field must be getting stronger
  2. The number of cosmic rays reaching Earth must be dropping
  3. Cosmic rays must successfully seed clouds, which requires:
    1. Cosmic rays must trigger aerosol (liquid droplet) formation
    2. These newly-formed aerosols must grow sufficiently through condensation to form cloud-condensation nuclei (CCN)
    3. The CCN must lead to increased cloud formation
  4. Cloud cover on Earth must be declining

In short, the CERN experiment only tested one-third of one out of four requirements to blame global warming on cosmic rays.  Additionally scientists have measured solar activity and the number of cosmic rays reaching Earth, and neither meets the first two requirements listed above.  Both solar magentic field strength and the number of cosmic rays reaching Earth have been flat over the past 50+ years (Figure 1).

solar magnetic flux

Figure 1: Solar Magnetic Field Strength from 1967 to 2009 (Vieira and Solanki 2010)

A number of other recent studies have also found that cosmic rays have minimal influence on cloud formation, and thus minimal influence on global warming.

As Dr. Kirby said in the quote above, it is an important first step, just like buying eggs is an important first step in baking a soufflé.  But just having some eggs doesn't mean I can bake a successful soufflé.  There are a whole lot of other requirements necessary for me to bake a soufflé, and believe me, I don't meet them!

Last updated on 2 September 2011 by dana1981.

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Comments

Comments 1 to 7:

  1. Try as hard as I might, I cannot see why proving that climate change is human in origin should have any bearing on the need to take action. We know that atmospheric CO2 acts as a greenhouse gas and we know how to reduce the amount of it we humans release into the atmosphere. So let's just get on with reducing it.

    Every time we argue about whether the change in the climate that we are experiencing is human in origin or not gives the politicians, who have an urgent need to protect their job in elections that come by every four or five years, an excuse to procrastinate. And heaven knows they have been excellent procrastinators when one looks at what has actually been achieved since Kyoto. It sickens me to think that Monckton and his ilk are winning hands down as things are. Though I doubt they will enjoy the prize they earn.

    I have given the example elsewhere on this site that you would not refuse to change direction or speed because the iceberg dead ahead is not human in origin.
    Response: [muoncounter] You're wildly off-topic for this thread (which should have links to all of the existing it's not cosmic rays threads).
  2. I was looking for this argument on the "Climate myths sorted by taxonomy" page, but I could not find it. Is there a reason it isn't on that page, and if not, would someone who can consider adding it there? I imagine it should be added under "It's cosmic rays".

  3. For a recent example where this experiment is in fact cited by a climate denier, check out the Letters to the Editor of the Lynchburg, VA News and Advance on 06/26/2014 (2nd Paragraph):

    http://www.newsadvance.com/opinion/letters_to_editor/letters-to-the-editor-for-thursday-june/article_f5f33af6-fca3-11e3-bb80-001a4bcf6878.html

    It is sadly amazing how such things take a life of their own.  However the letter did send me looking for what the experment was doing.  As is often the case, some folk put words into scientists' mouths without first asking them.

    Response:

    [JH] Activated link.

  4. I commend you for your strictness in interpreting the results of the Cloud Experiment. As you quite rightly say, the lead author (Jasper Kirby) has been very cautious in his claims, limiting himself to the results of the CERN experiments. You can see this very clearly in the recent paper that reports the experimental results.

    In his lecture available via Youtube, Dr Kirby was careful to warn his audience concerning the uncertainties in the putative mechanism relating GCR to climate via cloud formation. There is a big ? mark in the graphic and he points it out to the audience.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=63AbaX1dE7I

    In an earlier paper Dr Kirby was likewise cautious about what was expected from the Cloud Experiment, together with the uncertainties in relation to climate.

    He stated,

    "Although recent observations support the presence of ioninduced
    nucleation of new aerosols in the atmosphere, the possible contribution of such new particles to changes in the number of cloud condensation nuclei remains an open question." Page 32.

    Cosmic Rays, Clouds, and Climate (CERN-PH-EP/2008-005, 26 March 2008. Surveys in Geophysics 28, 333-375.

    LINK

    Only the most intrepid readers will wish to study the full paper, however the Youtube video contains the gist of the paper and several of the graphics.

    Dr Kirby's presentation is clear and I believe accessible to non-physicists. 

    There is a reference to protons and muons at one point, but readers of your blog will know that Wikipedea has good explanations of these.

    Response:

    [RH] Shortened link.

  5. Quick question: What would the cosmic ray hypothesis say about the effect on upper atmosphere temperature change?

  6. jd_germany, assuming we are talking about the 'cosmic ray hypothesis' which holds that 'a decrease in cosmic rays penetrating the atmosphere could lead to decreased cloud formation and thus increased solar radiation reaching the surface' (there are others) then there would be no change in the 'greenhouse effect' and we wouldn't expect to see the cooling of the upper atmosphere (i.e. stratosphere) which is characteristic of greenhouse warming (yet, we do).

    Similarly, if global warming were being driven by increased solar radiation (introduced by cosmic rays or otherwise) then we would expect to see the greatest warming increases during the day (we don't), in summer (nope), and near the equator (wrong again).

    In short, this 'hypothesis' is sort of the opposite of scientific progress... multiple lines of evidence all converge to show that it is false.

  7. Based on the abundant literature that does exist supporting the influence of Cosmic Rays on Earth's climate, how can anyone justify the IPCC ignoring cosmic rays and scenarios for stronger solar forcing in some of their global climate model iterations? The sun's activity significantly increased coeval with industrialization into a sustained solar max (see first link below), and it seems critical to understand the role of both solar activity and AGW to attempt to model Earth's climate.   

    Recent examples of the abundant literature that Cosmic Rays do influence Earth's climate (beyond the CERN nature paper above) include:

    Pnas 9400 yr cosmic ray record correlated with asian monsoon. 
    http://m.pnas.org/content/109/16/5967.full

    Pnas paper showing causation that cosmic rays force global climate in multi year time intervals and also a century of strong correlation
    http://m.pnas.org/content/112/11/3253.full

    Video of Cern Paper (simple 5 min overview):

    https://home.cern/about/updates/2016/05/cloud-shows-pre-industrial-skies-cloudier-we-thought

    Older papers include:

    Geel, B.V. Raspopov, O.M. et al. The role of solar forcing upon climate change, Quaternary Science Reviews 18 (1999), pg 331-338.

    The Svensmark set of papers like: 

    http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364682697000011

    Additionally literature: there are many papers that find the sun's highly periodic (22 yr today) signal of the Hale cycle paleomagnetic reversals preserved in regional climate proxy data like tree rings and lacustrine varves, and this solar magnetic periodicity most likely related to cosmic rays (here is one with an overview of some of the occurences):

    http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10933-008-9244-0

    Question 2:

    This list is just a fraction of the papers that support Cosmic Ray's forcing Earth's climate. What is the threshold for literature supporting cosmic rays to consider them as part of the climate system?

    It seems pages like this keep deflecting the data driven debate and not dealing directly with the issue- now CERN and several other respectable climate physics labs have collectively made a statement in 'Nature' about the uncertainty of the models: "This could raise the baseline aerosol state of the pristine pre-industrial atmosphere and so could reduce the estimated anthropogenic radiative forcing from increased aerosol-cloud albedo over the industrial period."

    I fear the threshold has been crossed and ignoring the context of the evergrowing literature and data about Cosmic Rays and the potential for a stronger sun for Earth's climate has become "DENIAL" of natural climate change potential that doesn't fit the IPCC dogma and introduces uncertainty in model predictions. Furthormore, this sort of denial could eventually erode public opinion of science and actually fuels the unwaranted denial of GHG influences and anthropogenic climate change.

     

    Cheers,

    Aaron S

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