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 It warmed before 1940 when CO2 was lowMuch of the increase in temperatures this century occurred during the first half of the century, while the major increase in CO2 occurred in the last half. The CO2 increase comes after the temperature increase. In short, the increases in CO2 do not correlate to the increase in temperature. What the science says...A widespread misconception is that anthropogenic global warming has been dominant over the last century. In actuality, CO2 warming has only been dominant since the "modern global warming trend" began in the mid-70's. To understand climate change, you need to factor in all the various forcings that influence global temperature. In the early 20th century, while CO2 levels were much smaller, solar activity was on the rise. Also, after a burst of volcanic activity in the late 18th century, there was a relative quiet volcanic period in the early 20th century. These were two dominant factors in the warming from 1900 to 1940. However, both factors have played little to no part in the warming since 1975. Solar activity has been steady since the 50's. Volcanoes have been relatively frequent in the last few decades and if anything, have exerted a cooling effect that has somewhat masked the CO2 warming effect. Papers studying climate change over the early 20th century
Related ArgumentsFurther readingTamino at Open Mind examines the role of volcanic forcing (or lack thereof) in early 20th Century warming in Volcanic Lull.
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The skeptic argument...