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It's aerosols

The skeptic argument...

It's aerosols

Is a Thinning Haze Unveiling the Real Global Warming? (Kerr 2007) points out that the sunlight-reflecting haze that cools much of the planet seems to have thinned over the past decade or so. If real, the thinning would not explain away a century of global warming but it might explain the unexpectedly strong global warming of late, the accelerating loss of glacial ice and much of rising sea levels.

What the science says...

The global dimming trend reversed around 1990 - 15 years after the global warming trend began in the mid 1970's.

The global dimming trend reversed around 1990 - 15 years after the global warming trend began around 1975. So it can't explain what began the global warming trend. Aerosols have a cooling effect on Earth's climate. When aerosols thin, the result is a lack of cooling, not a warming effect. That's not just semantics - take aerosols out of the equation and in the absence of any other forcings, global temperatures would remain steady.

So what is driving the warming? In the past, solar variations have been the main driver in climate change. A comparison of solar activity and temperature over the past 1150 years shows a close correlation between solar activity and temperature. However, the correlation ends around 1980 when temperatures started rising but solar levels remained steady.

Another suspect in climate change is cosmic radiation which is thought to increase cloud cover (hence cooling the earth). However, again there has been no correlation between temperature and cosmic ray flux since 1970. In fact, all the usual suspects in natural climate change - volcanic activity, orbit wobbles, solar variations are conspicuous in their absence over the past 30 years of long term global warming.

The only forcing that causes warming and also correlates with current temperature rises is atmospheric CO2. It's risen 100 parts per million over the past 120 years - in the past, that kind of change has taken 5,000 to 20,000 years. As CO2 rose over the 20th century, the only mystery has been why global temperatures actually cooled from 1950 to 1980. I even read one study in 1980 where the researcher posed the question "why aren't we seeing any global warming with all this CO2 in the air?"

The answer is now apparent with recent studies in aerosol levels and global dimming. Atmospheric aerosols caused a global dimming (eg - less radiation reaching the earth) from 1950 to 1985. In the mid-80's, the trend reversed and radiation levels at the Earth's surface began to brighten. From 1950 to the mid-80's, the cooling effect from aerosols was masking the warming effect from CO2. When aerosol cooling ended, the current global warming trend began.

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Comments

Comments 1 to 3:

  1. "...That's not just semantics - take aerosols out of the equation and in the absence of any other forcings, global temperatures would remain steady."

    This doesn't make any sense--when you "take aerosols out of the equation" doesn't that mean more EM radiation is reaching Earth, warming it?
  2. Which aerosols are you referring to? Man-made presumably?
    Aerosols are also produced by the biosphere and the atmospheric concentrations vary considerably. For example, many plant species produce aromatic oils (terpenes) which generally persist for a few minutes to a couple of days. Species include pines,eucalypts, beech,citrus, as well as the 'herbs'... rosemary, thyme,
    sage etc. These oils degrade in the atmosphere and form aerosols. A recent study indicates that plant aerosols can affect cloud cover :
    "The team found the terpenes react in the air to form tiny particles called aerosols. The particles help turn water vapour in the atmosphere into clouds.

    Spracklen said the team's computer models showed that the pine particles doubled the thickness of clouds some 1,000m above the forests, and would reflect an extra 5% sunlight back into space.

    He said: "It might not sound a lot, but that is quite a strong cooling effect. The climate is such a finely balanced system that we think this effect is large enough to reduce temperatures over quite large areas. It gives us another reason to preserve forests."

    The research, which will be published in a special edition of the Royal Society journal Philosophical Transactions A, is the first to quantify the cooling effect of the released chemicals. The scientists say the findings "must be included in climate models in order to make realistic predictions".

    Because trees release more terpenes in warmer weather, the discovery suggests that forests could act as a negative feedback on climate, to dampen future temperature rise. The team looked at forests of mainly pine and spruce trees, but Spracklen said other trees also produce terpenes so the cooling effect should be found in other regions, including tropical rainforests."

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/oct/31/forests-climatechange
  3. Here is a NASA study about aerosols affecting the Arctic:

    http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/warming_aerosols.html

    "Clean air regulations passed in the 1970s, for example, have likely accelerated warming by diminishing the cooling effect of sulfates"

    So without our pollution in the sixties global warming would have started much earlier.

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