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Comments 62301 to 62350:

62301. gallopingcamel at 17:54 PM on 1 March 2012
       Radiative Balance, Feedback, and Runaway Warming
       KR @74, 75 & 76, As acknowledged in my #68, Scafetta's model is open to the charge of curve fitting as are all the IPCC models. Scafetta understands that the "hard part" is to develop a theory to explain why his model is more than just curve fitting. See my #73. The IPCC models suffer from confirmation bias because they assume that CO2 is responsible for most of the recent warming while ignoring the evidence that 50-80% is attributable to natural causes.
       Response:

       [DB] "The IPCC models suffer from confirmation bias because they assume that CO2 is responsible for most of the recent warming while ignoring the evidence that 50-80% is attributable to natural causes."

       Unsupported assertion.  It is incumbent upon you to now provide links to peer-reviewed articles published in reputable journals that document that the evidence you mentions both exists and that the IPCC has ignored it. 

       You will be held accountable for the above statement.

62302. Sceptical Wombat at 17:50 PM on 1 March 2012
       The Certainty Monster vs. The Uncertainty Ewok
       The thing that really convinces me about the last 15 years is Foster & Rahmstorf's work. By doing a fairly straight forward multivariate regression and removing the effects of solar variation, El Nino and areosols they get a pretty steadily increasing trend for each of the major temperature data sets though there is still some residual noise. Even the noise is surprisingly consistent across the data sets -
62303. gallopingcamel at 17:38 PM on 1 March 2012
       Radiative Balance, Feedback, and Runaway Warming
       Jose_X @70, Your calculation based on CO2 doublings greatly underestimates the effect of multiplying Earth's ~400 ppm of CO2 by a factor of one million. Adding that much mass to our atmosphere would raise the surface temperature to at least 900 Kelvin. Once the surface temperature gets high enough the oceans would vaporize causing an additional 300 bars of surface pressure and a further increase in temperature. Venus with its 90 bar atmosphere would look chilly by comparison. Chris Colose would (posthumously) call this a "Runaway" greenhouse effect. You can find an excellent discussion of this here with plenty of side references that are worth reading: http://scienceofdoom.com/2010/06/12/venusian-mysteries/
62304. owl905 at 17:37 PM on 1 March 2012
       The Independence of Global Warming on Residence Time of CO2
       From here it's a mixture of sympathy and pity for Essenhigh's paper. It's understandable why he wouldn't budge from his position - his framework is false. His claim that CO2 levels spiked 1000% and declined in 16 years only measured the rare C14 values, not the CO2 well-mixed global levels. Those levels showed no spike at all to nuclear testing. He connects CO2 levels as a consequence of warming while skipping two basic tests. First, there's no record of a similar CO2 rise of 25%/century anywhere in the geological or historical record. Second, if .7dC warming can push CO2 levels up 40% (his claim), there would be a GHG record that looked like a seismograph output showing extremely unstable values for atmospheric CO2. Basically, he's failed to review the data, and he's missed the cacophony claiming CO2 is rising WITHOUT temperature rising. Then he constructs a one-way model that has no relevance to the carbon cycle - he missed the basic difference between residence time in one regime (atmosphere, land, ocean) that averages about 8 years; and the residence time of the system load in the biosphere as a unit - which is in the 50 to 200 year range the IPCC outlines. Feel sorry for a man when the need to invent a paradigm, that embarrasses academic degrees and a professional status, that fails to listen and learn before it talks and teaches. The '1000%' spike source
62305. CoalGeologist at 17:31 PM on 1 March 2012
       Greenhouse Effect Basics: Warm Earth, Cold Atmosphere
       OK... I can no longer restrain my reluctance to bare my ignorance in public. I just don't 'get it' that:

       "the reduction in energy radiated to space because of the presence of Infra-Red absorbing molecules in the atmosphere. That is, it is the greenhouse effect.

       What reduction of energy radiated to space? I also didn't 'get' the same thing in another recent discussion on SkS about "Radiative Balance, Feedback, and Runaway Warming" According to diagrams such as this one from Kiehl & Trenberth (1997): incoming solar radiation is ~341.3 W/m², of which ~101.9 is immediately reflected back out into space. 0.9 W/m² is estimated to be absorbed by the oceans. The outgoing LWR is 238.5 W/m². I'm not too good at math, but 238.5 + 101.9 + 0.9 = 341.3, which basically tells me that, at least to the first decimal place, the energy balances... which is pretty much what I expected, based upon certain principles of thermodynamics. It was my impression that the greenhouse effect was due to a slowing of the escape of outgoing heat by its absorption and re-emission (so-called radiative heat transfer) by GHGs. The increased heat is manifested as a higher temperature, owing to a certain other principle of thermodynamics. It has been my understanding that the outgoing long-wave radiation is suppressed in the absorption bands for GHGs--a telltale sign that GHG warming is occurring--but that owing to the increase in temperature (due to greenhouse warming), the emission in the parts of the spectrum transparent to outgoing longwave radiation is increased. Either my understanding is wrong, or the excerpted statement is wrong. Someone please correct me. (I can take it.)
62306. KR at 17:27 PM on 1 March 2012
       Radiative Balance, Feedback, and Runaway Warming
       My apologies, the Loehle/Scafetta reconstruction in the illustration has a cyclic+linear component. The most recent Scafetta paper, on the other hand, has a cyclic+quadratic basis up until ~2000, when (for reasons not clearly justified, or understood here, as it leads to a worse fit) he changes to cyclic+linear again. Either way, his model fails in backprojection, includes no physics, but is simply correlation without causation, and hence has no predictive power. Physics: Good predictions Good stats: Reasonable predictions if nothing changes Bad stats: Better off repeatedly flipping a coin Since CO2 forcings are constantly changing, ENSO, solar, and volcanic forcings are not correlated, Scafetta's work is simply bad statistics.
62307. KR at 17:19 PM on 1 March 2012
       Radiative Balance, Feedback, and Runaway Warming
       gallopingcamel - Scafetta's work is simply curve-fitting to a limited period. When taken outside the 'training period' for his cyclic+quadratic fit, it fails horribly: This is simply a rather limited Fourier decomposition (over-attributed to larger frequencies within the timeframe that happen to somewhat match selected astronomical periods) of the period under analysis, with no predictive power whatsoever - correlation without causation, unable to make any predictions as it is not based upon any physics related to the system. That's fine as long as the inputs/forcings do not change, but cannot predict future (or past, as shown above) behavior if they do, for example as CO2 levels change. I'll note that the quadratic term in Scafetta's most recent work (oddly without emphasis in his papers) does roughly correspond to CO2 forcing. With no conclusions drawn, or analysis applied... Where is your skepticism?
62308. KR at 17:07 PM on 1 March 2012
       Radiative Balance, Feedback, and Runaway Warming
       Jose_X - I will (putting my 2 cents in, if that) note that it is a bit difficult to follow a stream of consciousness post. It would be easier to follow if you were to note your assertion(s), followed by the backing. Otherwise it's a bit difficult to identify any issues you might raise. That said - Huffman appears to think that plate tectonics is nonsense (not the best recommendation), N&Z have apparently used basic curve fitting to re-derive the S-B relationship without acknowledging it, PV=nRT requires a separate temperature driven by convection and radiative physics to set the pressures, etc. Even WUWT has pointed out N&Z issues with significant justification. Which aspect(s) of those postings do you consider significant issues with basic radiative physics?
62309. gallopingcamel at 17:03 PM on 1 March 2012
       Radiative Balance, Feedback, and Runaway Warming
       scaddenp @71, Scafetta has shown that planetary motions correlate with global temperature. At first blush this sounds like astrology rather than science. You should be skeptical as I am but maybe we should suspend judgment. Suppose that the gyrations of the major planets somehow modulate the reactions taking place in the sun's core. If this was happening, how long would it take for the effects to reach the sun's radiating surface? If you rely on Radiative Transfer the answer is tens of thousands of years. So is there any process that could explain the very short time constant that matches observations? If such a mechanism exists it may take decades to understand it just as in Wegener's case.
62310. Composer99 at 15:58 PM on 1 March 2012
       DenialGate - Highlighting Bob Carter's Selective Science
       The CASS-CFI report I linked to indicates Patterson was for some time the teacher of the course; the year they audited the course's videos it was taught by a Tom Harris.
62311. Bob Loblaw at 13:54 PM on 1 March 2012
       DenialGate - Highlighting Bob Carter's Selective Science
       Carleton University is the home of Tim Patterson - a well-known climate change denier. That's probably where the guest lecture was done. The geography department used to have people who actually knew about climatology, but I'm not sure who they have there now. Tim Patterson is in geology, and would probably consider Tim Ball to be a peer (which is not a strong recommendation).
62312. KR at 13:45 PM on 1 March 2012
       The Independence of Global Warming on Residence Time of CO2
       Michael Hauber - Your post is contradictory, I would assume not intentionally. Your hypothetic source/sink will emit/absorb CO2 above a specific level? This is not comprehensible. The oceans have (as per the ice core record) absorbed or release ~90ppm of CO2 over a 5-6C temperature swing, with a time delay of 500-800 years. Not due to atmospheric CO2 concentration changes, mind you, but due to solubility changes with temperature. The oceans therefore do not fit your hypothetical, as atmospheric concentrations have changed in sync with our emissions for the last 150 years or so, with natural sinks (primarily the oceans) absorbing only half of our emissions. In regards to the oceans, I would suggest reading the OA Is Not OK series, Why ocean heat can’t drive climate change, and What is causing the increase in atmospheric CO2 to review the mass balance issues. We certainly understand enough of what CO2 is doing in the oceans to determine that the oceans are not the source of CO2 increases over the last 150 years.
62313. Composer99 at 13:44 PM on 1 March 2012
       The Independence of Global Warming on Residence Time of CO2
       Michael: Fortunately, we are already very well aware that the oceans are taking up CO2 at a very high rate, leading to an ocean acidification which is effectively unprecedented in geological history. There is a long series here on Skeptical Science going through the chemistry which demonstrates this is the case. This is despite the rise in temperatures, which would normally result in the oceans outgassing CO2.
62314. Michael Hauber at 13:26 PM on 1 March 2012
       The Independence of Global Warming on Residence Time of CO2
       The logic of this argument is flawed. Hypothetically imagine a natural carbon sink that emits Co2 if current concentrations are above a specific equilibrium level, and absorbs Co2 if it is above this level. And assume that this equilibrium level increases as temperatures increase, and that the carbon sink acts quickly enough to maintain Co2 concentrations close to the equilibrium level. Then it would be possible for man to emmit Co2, this hypothetical sink to be a net absorber of Co2, and the overall increase in Co2 be determined not by man's emissions but by the hypothetical sink. The ocean does act a little like this, and has a preferred equilibrium for Co2 concentration that depends on temperature, and will tend to absorb or emit Co2 as required to maintain this equilibrium. Some more understanding of what Co2 is doing in the ocean is required to rule out natural sources of the Co2 increase.
62315. Jose_X at 12:26 PM on 1 March 2012
       Radiative Balance, Feedback, and Runaway Warming
       Moderator JH from #69, I thought I asked a reasonable question about radiative balance. If I kept quiet about the resolution, the question stays on the comment thread unanswered. Was that the preferable option? Is it my fault I didn't know the answer when I asked it and later realized it? Is there no use to detailing an answer? Is it not useful to present the sort of honest thought process that goes through people's minds? I thought this thought process (the form of #69) is useful to a website trying to understand its audience so as to better communicate the website's message. I'm not the best writer. Was that the problem?
       Moderator Response: [JH] Suggest that you do your calculations off-line and keep your comments focused. People are just not inclined to read lengthy rambling posts.
62316. Sceptical Wombat at 11:56 AM on 1 March 2012
       The Independence of Global Warming on Residence Time of CO2
       The thing I don't understand is what Essenhigh et al think the CO2 content of the atmosphere would be if the industrial revolution had never happened. Do they really think it would be the same as it is today - or do they think it would be higher? If I take the plug out of the handbasin in my bathroom I can turn on the cold water tap to a point where the basin remains half full - ie the water runs in from the tap at the same speed that it escapes through the plug hole. If I then turn on the hot tap a little the water will rise in the basin and eventually overflow. The residence time in the basin is very short, the percentage of hot water in the basin at any time will be very low but I defy anyone to argue that the overflow was not caused by my turning on the hot tap.
62317. PluviAL at 11:04 AM on 1 March 2012
       Greenhouse Effect Basics: Warm Earth, Cold Atmosphere
       Boba10960, Strong second on the critical value of this explanation. I have been studying ths subject for some time, and most discussion gloss over this as if everybody knows it. But we don't we just assume someone did thier work and so we can just wave our arms as the article sais to communicate. I am mostly an avid arm-waver; who knows it might help to cool the planet. Like so many ither posts here, this is really valuable instruction. A hardy thanks to all who work so hard to provide such good stuff.
62318. owl905 at 10:37 AM on 1 March 2012
       Greenhouse Effect Basics: Warm Earth, Cold Atmosphere
       @jimb 29 and DMCarey 28 - DM's fear is warranted. It's sanctified by the National Post, upheld by most of the other 'national' newspapers. And a decade of national governance that's power-base is built on the tar pits has taken the old phrase 'blue-eyed Arabs' to a whole new level. Here's the latest (c/o CCTNG): Heartland Does Carlton University Any claim that the Greenhouse Effect is 'generally accepted' is a pitch in the dirt daring everyone to argue from square one - waiting for a chance to butwhatabout.
62319. scaddenp at 10:20 AM on 1 March 2012
       Radiative Balance, Feedback, and Runaway Warming
       "Remember that Alfred Wegener had been dead for many years when the scientific world stopped laughing at his theory of "Continental Drift"." So who stopped laughing? The idea that continents could move over the seafloor was and still is ridiculous. His observational evidence that eventually helped lead to modern tectonics was not ridiculous and not laughed at. However, where are the unexplained puzzles in climate theory comparable to Wegener?
62320. Jose_X at 09:56 AM on 1 March 2012
       Radiative Balance, Feedback, and Runaway Warming
       I think I resolved my Venus/Earth conflict http://www.skepticalscience.com/news.php?p=2&t=53&&n=1310#75971 . Believe it or not, that particular planet comparison had been nagging me for at least a few weeks. None of my few replies addressing it (on a different forum) had simply calculated the 10^6-fold increase scenario to make it apparent that there was no inconsistency between that data and GHE.
62321. Jose_X at 09:40 AM on 1 March 2012
       Radiative Balance, Feedback, and Runaway Warming
       The majority of this comment (middle on down) serves to illustrate a misunderstanding that perhaps a number of people might be having. >> please, stop quoting from bad science sites Riccardo, I brought up a point that presumably is based on data and which is a reasonable question to ask of the GHE since on the surface appears to suggest the amount of ghg does not matter. I linked the webpage for reference to reduce the number of replies asking for more detail. >> If you have a transparent atmosphere you end up with a isothermal atmosphere at the same temperature as the surface My second scenario is not 100% N2 (which is this simple case you answered). Essentially, I have not verified that there is an appreciable difference between having a small amount of CO2 vs having almost the entire atmosphere be CO2. In Venus, we have a number of similarities to the Earth but the opposite extreme as here in terms of relative proportion of ghg. Has no one published a paper applying GHE equations to Venus? [See conclusion below, as it suggests a classroom exercise might be more appropriate.] >> In the real case, use the adiabatic lapse rate, the emission altitude from the effective radiation temperature and extrapolate back to the surface. This approach was exactly what gave me a little concern. I think it's also what Joel Shore describes in part (c) of his reply here http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/12/29/unified-theory-of-climate/#comment-849734 Let me take this slowly. If we initially only concern ourselves with a rough approximation, then the webpage I linked takes you through the data to suggest that we would get exactly the same answer regardless of the amount of CO2. The slope of that lapse rate appears to be about the same for Venus as for Earth.. again, to first approximation. Now, I would not have expected this result.. even to first approximation. Now, on to more precise estimate considerations. One of my next thoughts was that the lapse rate is basically linear over a narrow pressure range (or more linear nearer to TOA?) but then bends on the way down in very high pressures. This would perhaps solve the problem. As we go deeper into Venus, the curve would bend towards higher temperatures.. in comparison to the path it would take if Venus has the % makeup as the Earth has. [Update to self: the graph here http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmosphere_of_Venus#Troposphere appears to show a slight bend towards higher temperatures in the low part of the line] This is why I ask about a precise calculation. Now, let's look at a few potential curves more closely. First, I have the question of what to expect, so let's consider some possibly hypotheses. H1: I know that 100% CO2 perhaps might not make much of a difference vs 10% CO2 + N2. I don't know but some degree of saturation certainly could be in play. H2: In fact, the actual physics could potentially make the 100% CO2 case do worse. These are all possibilities a priori. H3: A different form of reasoning might hypothesize that more CO2 should *always* lead to greater GHE within the limits imposed that a doubling of concentration leads to linear temperature increases. This is the standard model, I think, so I will look at it first. I now look towards the Earth predictions. We have a few degrees.. or let's say 1 K for 2xCO2. Extending this, 1 million xCO2 (approx 20 doublings) would lead to 20 K increase. 20K increase!! OK, maybe the model is being driven out of range by my example of 1 million fold increase. This would lead to about 390 atmospheres of pressure at the surface of the Earth and near 99.99% CO2. Or maybe the model would hold. Very interesting result. I did not expect that. I'll stop here since it appears I might have my answer from standard theory. My conclusion is that the climate models would appear to be consistent with the Venus example since a small change in slope is enough to change the temperature at the surface of Venus by about 20 K (or vicinity) rather easily. My concerns have been dispelled for the most part (pending a recheck of the logic and math). After thought: On earth we can have a very modest change in pressure of 40% via 1000 fold increase in CO2 yet get a full 10K. This 10K would be more than half of the 18K or so ballpark figure representing the super hot and high pressure Venus. This result is certainly a bit counter-intuitive (thanks to the log relationship).
       Moderator Response: [JH] Please refrain from using this comment thread as your personal scratch pad.
62322. Dikran Marsupial at 09:36 AM on 1 March 2012
       Scafetta's Widget Problems
       Volker Doorman I don't believe in repetition either, especially if the cycle in question has no statistical significance nor a plausible physical mechanism that can explain the strength of the effect. Sorry, the irony of your response was just too tempting! ;o)
62323. Volker Doormann at 09:18 AM on 1 March 2012
       Scafetta's Widget Problems
       @Dikran Marsupial I do not belief in repipition. I'm off.
       Response:

       [DB] If you did not wish to participate in science-based dialogue, of which experimental repeatability is an integral part, than why are you here?

       As an FYI, this forum has witnessed curve-fitting exercises based on the CET before.  And is therefore dubious.

62324. gallopingcamel at 09:12 AM on 1 March 2012
       Radiative Balance, Feedback, and Runaway Warming
       Jose_X at 16:41 PM on 29 February, 2012, You have identified the main weakness in the references I cited. They lack a physical mechanism to underpin them and that leaves them open to the charge of "curve fitting". Remember that Alfred Wegener had been dead for many years when the scientific world stopped laughing at his theory of "Continental Drift". Nicola Scafetta is all too well aware that even if his prediction of global temperatures to 2040 proves to be more accurate than that of the IPCC's AR4, it proves nothing unless he can explain the underlying processes. He is making progress and I find his ideas quite plausible. When he "goes public" we will be able to take this discussion to the next level. In my opinion, N&K are in the same boat but I have not had the opportunity to meet them. (-snipIn AR4, the IPCC used a composite of a portfolio of models that are also open to the charge of "curve fitting". Richard Lindzen included a table of the parameters used in these models in his recent address to the UK House of Commons. This was a dubious approach in AR4 and according to Alec Rawls it will be even more dubious in AR5. http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/02/22/omitted-variable-fraud-vast-evidence-for-solar-climate-driver-rates-one-oblique-sentence-in-ar5/-) Early drafts of the AR5 Working Group 1 have been leaked and I have a team working on them. You are clearly a deep thinker so would you be interested in participating? http://www.gallopingcamel.info/IPCC.htm
       Response:

       [DB] Imputations of impropriety and fraud snipped.  Please pay more than a passing nod to the Comments Policy of this site.

62325. jimb at 08:23 AM on 1 March 2012
       Greenhouse Effect Basics: Warm Earth, Cold Atmosphere
       @28- This is not being helped by the latest news re this year's proposed budget in Canada. From our local newspaper;"The federal Conservatives are planning significant spending cuts for the upcoming 2012-13 budget years in areas such as environmental monitoring, fisheries and oceans, Via Rail, national defence, the Canadian Space agency and green energy initiatives." The budget, according to the report, will cut funding to the Canadian Environmental Agency by 43%. (Edmonton Journal February 29th) And, of course, Canada pulled out of Kyoto earlier this year.
62326. Pete Dunkelberg at 07:56 AM on 1 March 2012
       The Independence of Global Warming on Residence Time of CO2
       Dikran is right that denial of the cause of the increase in atmospheric CO2 is worth treating in print. He might offer to educate Heartland's chosen educator David Wojick. From a comment at Eli's

       I made the mistake of visiting the House of Curry, and followed some links from Curry's laudatory description of Lindzen's talk (and having _been_ to one of Lindzen's talks in person, I find it hard to think that there is anything of laudatory content in there). Some interesting quotes from delving into the rabett-hole... First, David Wojick, Climate Educator: "I am not convinced that the CO2 increase has caused any warming, nor that the CO2 increase is due to human emissions. So I certainly do not agree with AGW, in any form." While this was in 2010, this one quote pretty much demolishes his (already non-existent) credentials as someone who should receive money for creating a climate curriculum: if you can't accept that the CO2 increase is due to human emissions, you are pretty much in Moon-landing-denial territory. (comment from http://judithcurry.com/2010/12/14/co2-no-feedback-sensitivity-part-ii/) Quote 2 is of note because Curry tries so hard to never let herself get pinned down on anything, and is so hard on anyone who doesn't acknowledge uncertainty in their conclusions: she states as "almost certain" something that I consider "likely wrong". "This is how I would do the analysis to determine the CO2 no feedback sensitivity. The number would almost certainly be less than 1C." from http://judithcurry.com/2010/12/11/co2-no-feedback-sensitivity/ -MMM

       Thanks Dikran for doing this.
62327. Riccardo at 07:34 AM on 1 March 2012
       Radiative Balance, Feedback, and Runaway Warming
       Jose_X you have three possibilities, look at what other scientists published on the topic or read a textbook on radiative transfer and do proper calculations yourself or satisfy your curiosity with a crude semi-quantitative model. The latter is straightforward. If you have a transparent atmosphere you end up with a isothermal atmosphere at the same temperature as the surface; the latter is determined by simply balancing the fluxes. In the real case, use the adiabatic lapse rate, the emission altitude from the effective radiation temperature and extrapolate back to the surface. But please, stop quoting from bad science sites ...
62328. scaddenp at 07:32 AM on 1 March 2012
       Newcomers, Start Here
       My 2c. 1. Distinctions need to be made. I consider myself a skeptic - most scientists do. However fake skepticism is skepticism of a theory you dont like for reasons not based on data and no skepticism at all for alternatives or criticism that support your position. There is no name-calling of genuine contrary studies, that are published in media. They are interesting - just very rare. People who make misleading statements to the naive and take a different line when talking to their peers deserve all the criticism they get. As do those who knowingly skew and present science for the purpose of misleading the public. 2. Well there is only valid answer - you cant have personalised reality. However, there are different opinions on what that is obviously. Contrary opinions have to be supported by data and to be taken seriously, published in peer-reviewed literature. "Blog science" doesnt count. "Surely there must be some evidence of a contrary viewpoint." Not much. Plenty on blogs - not in the literature. 3. "I can’t imagine any scientist applying for grant money to research a theory that humans are not to blame. " Correct - because real scientists do not do research for a predetermined outcome and grant committees would reject such a proposal out of hand. That's SPPI/Heartland stuff. Instead scientists put in application to research what is not known - whether the results support or conflict with established theory is of no interest to granters. The common criteria for funding are: - is it novel? - does the team have the relevant expertise? - and for many grants, is the research relevant? I would say you objections are due to misconceptions. Fortunately, that is easily fixed.
62329. Riccardo at 07:13 AM on 1 March 2012
       Scafetta's Widget Problems
       The sea level data are detrended and retain the seasonal cycle which is what the solar tide function apparently matches. Temperature anomalies are detrended as well and not a very compelling proof. The best case scenario is that it contributes to variblity, though I'd wait for a proper analisys by Volker Doormann.
62330. dana1981 at 06:59 AM on 1 March 2012
       Michaels Misrepresents Nordhaus and Scientific Evidence in General
       Indeed, I was very happy to see Nordhaus come out and dispel the misrepresentations of his research so emphatically. Look for a blog post featuring his article in the near future.
62331. Albatross at 06:57 AM on 1 March 2012
       Michaels Misrepresents Nordhaus and Scientific Evidence in General
       Dana @11, That is an excellent essay by Nordhaus. I also like this statement: "The skeptics’ summary is based on poor analysis and on an incorrect reading of the results. The first problem is an elementary mistake in economic analysis." Beautiful, this seems to be a common problem with claims, science and research undertaken by fake skeptics :) I wish more scientists were more outspoken about misrepresentations and distortions of their work by fake skeptics.
62332. Dikran Marsupial at 06:53 AM on 1 March 2012
       Scafetta's Widget Problems
       Volker, correlation is not causation. If the coherence exists over the extend of the satelite record, then plot a graph of the coherence across the satelite record, better still, perform a proper statistical analysis. I suspect the coherence doesn't extend over the whole period of the observations, which would imply that the correllation is no more than a temporary correllation and is essentially meaningless. This advice is well intentioned. Perform statistical tests to determine whether your results can be explained by random chance. It is the safeguard that is widely used in science to prevent jumping to conclusions. If you don't do that, then your efforts are likely to be wasted investigaing meaningless correllations. You wouldn't be the first, you won't be the last, but it would be better if you applied more self-skepticism and didn't make this mistake at all.
62333. CBDunkerson at 06:44 AM on 1 March 2012
       Postma disproved the greenhouse effect
       While I too consider the Postma paper under discussion a travesty, YOGI's statement that 'most of it is very good' could almost be true in a way... if this is an indication that YOGI is accepting that the 'greenhouse effect violates the 2nd law of thermodynamics' argument (i.e. the central premise) of the paper is incorrect then there actually is quite a bit of other information in the paper which is accurate and detailed enough to be useful to someone who hasn't been exposed to the more nuanced intricacies of the greenhouse effect previously. However, as Dikran notes, it isn't entirely clear whether YOGI is accepting that or not... and in any case there are many other references which can provide a similarly detailed background without the occasional shockingly wrong argument sprinkled in.
62334. Volker Doormann at 06:42 AM on 1 March 2012
       Scafetta's Widget Problems
       @Dikran Marsupial “Volker Doormann I have had a look at the sea-level/temperature/Mercury/Earth phase coherence, and I have to say that the evidence isn't very compelling. “ OK. But it is scientifically not relevant what your evidence detector reject; relevant would it be, if you would state, that there is only a correlation coefficient of about ~0.0 between the solar tide function and sea level and no significant phase coherence between the solar tide function and see level oscillation on the graph seen. “Why show only data from 2009 to 2012? We have sea level and UAH data extending further back than that and if there is a meaningful phase coherence then it should be coherent as far back as the satelite observations extend.” Old trick. How many black swan want you to see, to accept that there are really black swans living? http://www.volker-doormann.org/images/sealevel_1996.gif http://www.volker-doormann.org/images/sealevel_2000.gif http://www.volker-doormann.org/images/sealevel_2004.gif http://www.volker-doormann.org/images/ghi_had_1960_3.gif http://www.volker-doormann.org/images/ghi_11_had1960.gif http://www.volker- doormann.org/images/ghi4_vs_patzelt_dsh1.jpg http://www.volker-doormann.org/images/ghi_11_1.gif http://www.volker-doormann.org/images/echo_g_vs_ghi.gif “The problems with correllations between noisy signals is that if you look hard enough, you will almost always be able to find one purely due to random chance. This is why statistical tests should be used to determine if the degree of correllation is surprising given the noise levels of the data and the number of correlations investigated.” You miss the core of the object. These two graphs are examples of the result of more than two years research in astronomy and climate proxies, and the results are unique in the field of climate simulation and prediction. There is no better tool as summing up solar tides from real objects. Scafetta’s cycle’s have no astronomical basis; time cycles of ~60 years are not astronomy based. My have. V.
62335. CBDunkerson at 06:34 AM on 1 March 2012
       The Independence of Global Warming on Residence Time of CO2
       Thanks Dikran. Very good stuff. Even if we can't come to agreement there is alot to be said for polite discussion. It will be interesting to see if there is further analysis and discussion around this.
62336. Jose_X at 06:33 AM on 1 March 2012
       Radiative Balance, Feedback, and Runaway Warming
       Ricardo, (-snip I was going to state at the top of that comment that here was a person who had been [pick horrible deed X done to a child] by a climate scientist.-) I summarized the results. I am curious what you think about what I wrote. If you want more details, ask or glance at that page I linked. My problem essentially is that I don't have a handy solver to test out what the GHE calculates for the surface temperature of Venus. Next (problem 2), replace most of that CO2 by N2 and see what is the result. Can you help me with these two calculations to see if the first one fits the data and then to see (out of curiosity) what the second one produces?
       Response:

       [DB] Inflammatory snipped.

62337. DrTsk at 06:30 AM on 1 March 2012
       The Independence of Global Warming on Residence Time of CO2
       It really saddens me...
62338. DrTsk at 06:28 AM on 1 March 2012
       The Independence of Global Warming on Residence Time of CO2
       the original paper should neeeeveer have been published. This is so 1st year Chemical Engineering it is not even funny.
62339. DMCarey at 06:21 AM on 1 March 2012
       Greenhouse Effect Basics: Warm Earth, Cold Atmosphere
       Steve Case @1, the scarey thing is I'm encountering an increasing number of people in Canada who seem to doubt the existence of even the greenhouse effect. The far-reaching disinformation campaign seems to be muddying the waters rather effectively. In light of this, I feel its the duty of the choir to sing loudly to bring sanity back to this (should be) non-debate
62340. KR at 06:20 AM on 1 March 2012
       Postma disproved the greenhouse effect
       YOGI - "...most of the paper is very good." As stated in the OP, and in multiple comments, this is simply not the case - Postma's paper is riddled with basic errors. An object is in thermal equilibrium when it is radiating/conducting/convecting away as much energy as it is receiving from it's surroundings. A nearby mirror (as part of those surroundings) increases the amount of energy coming in over and above the light source (relative to a cold background), and the only way for that object to radiate away that increased energy is to become warmer. That holds whether the mirror is perfect, or a 50% mirror with wavelength dependencies (more akin to the atmosphere). Increased energy from the surroundings, or rather decreased energy absorbed by the surroundings, will drive the temperature of the object up until it is radiating as much energy as it absorbs. Postma's statement that the object would not heat up, as Dikran noted here, is completely wrong, violating the first law of thermodynamics, conservation of energy. There's nothing wrong with the mirror example, just with Postma's incorrect description of what would happen. Leaving behind inexact language (such as "implies") - do you, or do you not, agree with Postma?
62341. Dikran Marsupial at 06:13 AM on 1 March 2012
       Postma disproved the greenhouse effect
       YOGI Please can you state unequivocally whether the mirror example in Postmas paper is incorrect or not. Do you agree that with the mirror in place the blackbody will have a higher equilibrium temperature. Also please state unequivocally whether you agree that in the example you provided that the presence of another blackbody increases the equilibrium temperature of both bodies. In a scientific debate it is essential that such things are stated absolutely unequivocally, rather than "which implies there is a problem", which is vague enough for there to be a question of whether it is actually right or wrong.
62342. Riccardo at 06:07 AM on 1 March 2012
       Radiative Balance, Feedback, and Runaway Warming
       I understand that it might be just my prejudice but I'm not sure I want to read something (as Jose_X suggests) written by someone introduced by these words, they doesn't sound much like well founded science:

       "Science today recognizes the world was remade (through a presumably long process of continental breakup, worldwide drift, and rejoining), incredible as that seemed a hundred years ago. "The End of the Mystery" establishes the even more astounding, and even surer, fact that the world was deliberately changed, to enable a great design. It is only the overwhelming scale of the design that has up to now stymied man's understanding, eluding even the finest modern scientific minds. The discovery of a great, world-encompassing design, confirmed alike by new, overwhelming physical facts about the Earth and by the universal ancient testimony, invalidates the presumption against design of the current scientific consensus, and enlightens both religion and science. We are in fact at the start of a new age of unprecedented, unified understanding, of the real history of the Earth and man.

       For what is worth, I don't understand why Jose_X keeps quoting pages of "strange" science while leaving the door open to the possibility they're at least in part correct and that "it seems to cast some doubt to what all of that CO2 is doing."
62343. dana1981 at 06:06 AM on 1 March 2012
       Michaels Misrepresents Nordhaus and Scientific Evidence in General
       Note that in an article today, Nordhaus has confirmed that Alex and SkS are right, and Michaels and the WSJ 'skeptics' are wrong:

       "The authors cite the “benefit-to-cost ratio” to support their argument. Elementary cost-benefit and business economics teach that this is an incorrect criterion for selecting investments or policies. The appropriate criterion for decisions in this context is net benefits (that is, the difference between, and not the ratio of, benefits and costs)... ...My research shows that there are indeed substantial net benefits from acting now rather than waiting fifty years. A look at Table 5-1 in my study A Question of Balance (2008) shows that the cost of waiting fifty years to begin reducing CO2 emissions is $2.3 trillion in 2005 prices. If we bring that number to today’s economy and prices, the loss from waiting is $4.1 trillion."

62344. YOGI at 06:03 AM on 1 March 2012
       Postma disproved the greenhouse effect
       That`s what I thought, which implies that there is a problem with the mirror example, as equal and mutual exchange amounts to the same as reflection. A mirror is hardly an analogy of the real atmosphere as re-emission after absorption is in all directions, and there are gaps between absorption bands. So I would not throw the baby away with the bathwater, most of the paper is very good.
62345. Jose_X at 05:56 AM on 1 March 2012
       Radiative Balance, Feedback, and Runaway Warming
       Tom Curtis #57: I think I understand where Tgb comes from. The part inside the integral of eqn 2 (which looks like eqn 1 without the 4 denominator) is just Stefan-Boltzmann in a form that shows the value of T explicitly as a function of power flux. This starting point is independent of the shell radiative model, and numerous people accept it and use it to calculate the temp of the planet if it had not atmosphere. The albedo would be to sun's radiation and the emissivity would be for the planet radiating in its own spectrum range as graybody. This is consistent with how it refers to Tgb later on, "the average temperature of a Standard Planetary Gray Body (SPGB) with no atmosphere (Tgb, K)." And then it clarifies that it is using that Tgb with reasonable parameter values: > We employ Eq. (2) to estimate Tgb assuming an albedo αgb = 0.12 and a surface emissivity ϵ = 0.955 for the SPGB based on data for Moon, Mercury, and the Earth surface. Using So = 1362 W m-2 (Kopp & Lean 2011) in Eq. (2) yields Tgb = 154.3K and NTE = 287.6/154.3 = 1.863 for Earth. This prompts the question: What mechanism enables our atmosphere to boost the planet surface temperature some 86% above that of a SPGB? I agree then that step b is correct.
62346. RonManley at 05:53 AM on 1 March 2012
       Scafetta's Widget Problems
       I've now updated my model using CO2-equivalent rather than CO2. The regression is slightly improved. What is interesting is that new model gives less influence to sunspots and a better estimate of sensitivity for CO2-equivalent doubling - 0.89 C.
62347. Dikran Marsupial at 05:49 AM on 1 March 2012
       Postma disproved the greenhouse effect
       YOGI Forgetting the mirror avoids discussing the error in Postmas' paper. However, in the case of two black-bodies in close proximity and at the same temperature, there will be a constant exchange of photons between them, but this exchange will be balanced (assuming symmetry). However this exchange flux will mean that both bodies would be at a higher equilibrium temperature than they would be at if the other body were not there. This is because the outbound photons that would have been absorbed by the other body will now simply be radiated out into space and won't be balanced by the reciprocal photons from the other body.
62348. boba10960 at 05:45 AM on 1 March 2012
       Greenhouse Effect Basics: Warm Earth, Cold Atmosphere
       Thanks to everyone who responded to my inquiry! I'm an oceanographer and can hold my own on most discussions of carbon in the ocean, but the processes that influence the radiation balance in the atmosphere remain a challenge. Consequently, I appreciate the opportunity provided by SkS to learn about climate-related processes outside my own field. Glenn Tamblyn - I look forward to reading your post!
62349. YOGI at 05:37 AM on 1 March 2012
       Postma disproved the greenhouse effect
       Postma`s mirror... OK forget the mirror atm and imagine the experiment to be in the vacuum of space, and there are two identical black bodies being warmed by the same light bulb at the same distance to the same state of equilibrium. When the two black bodies are in close proximity but not touching each other, is there a reciprocal warming in both bodies ?
62350. Dikran Marsupial at 05:03 AM on 1 March 2012
       Scafetta's Widget Problems
       Volker Doormann I have had a look at the sea-level/temperature/Mercury/Earth phase coherence, and I have to say that the evidence isn't very compelling. Why show only data from 2009 to 2012? We have sea level and UAH data extending further back than that and if there is a meaningful phase coherence then it should be coherent as far back as the satelite observations extend. The problems with correllations between noisy signals is that if you look hard enough, you will almost always be able to find one purely due to random chance. This is why statistical tests should be used to determine if the degree of correllation is surprising given the noise levels of the data and the number of correlations investigated.

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