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All IPCC definitions taken from Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Annex I, Glossary, pp. 941-954. Cambridge University Press.

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IPCC overestimate temperature rise

What the science says...

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Lord Monckton has taken a single equation from the IPCC, used it in an inappropriate manner, and then attributed his results to the IPCC. This is as if I borrowed your car, drove into a tree, and then blamed you. He uses a method that is clearly intended to examine the long-term response of temperature to changes in carbon dioxide, and which is never used by the IPCC (nor should it be) to make predictions about current temperature trends. A slight change in Lord Monckton’s methodology as of July 2010 still does not make his method or attribution remotely appropriate.

Climate Myth...

IPCC overestimate temperature rise
"The IPCC’s predicted equilibrium warming path bears no relation to the far lesser rate of “global warming” that has been observed in the 21st century to date." (Christopher Monckton)

Monckton calculates his "predicted temperatures" using an equation found in the IPCC report (Working Group 3, Chapter 3) that is used to examine the long-term temperature response to carbon dioxide emissions: Teq = ECS × ln(CO2end / CO2start) / ln(2). This is essentially a ratio increase in CO2 multiplied by the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), a value that represents how sensitive temperature is to changes in CO2. The IPCC gives the range for ECS of 2.0 to 4.5, with a "best estimate" of 3.0.

With this equation, Monckton uses the CO2 values from the IPCC’s A2 scenario: a CO2start value of 368 ppm in 2000 and a CO2end value of 836 ppm in 2100. He then examines the IPCC’s low- and high-end ECS values (2.0 and 4.5), but uses the "central estimate" of ECS = 3.25 instead of the IPCC’s "best estimate". Monckton has simplified the original equation by dividing ECS by ln(2) in order to provide a single multiplier. Here are the equations that produce the range of warming that Lord Monkton claims is predicted by the IPCC:

2.9 × ln(836/368) = 2.4 C
4.7 × ln(836/368) = 3.9 C
6.5 × ln(836/368) = 5.3 C

You can see that these values match up with the "IPCC predicts warming" values shown on Monckton’s figures.

There are four fundamental problems with using these values to "predict" temperatures and attributing them to the IPCC:

1. The IPCC does not "predict" anything on this matter – they make multiple projections assuming different future emissions scenarios. This may sound trivial, but it’s a very important distinction. Monckton narrows the analysis to a single scenario (A2) and labels it a prediction.

2. Temperature rise for the A2 scenario is very unlikely to be linear, and single values in °C / century are inappropriate when looking at temperatures for time periods of less than a century. This is particularly problematic when looking at very short time periods early in this century, which are likely to exhibit less warming than later in the century.

3. These equations predict the equilibrium temperature response, which is the final temperature change once the climate has fully adjusted to a change in CO2. It does not represent the temperature expected for the year that CO2 concentration reaches the value used in the equation (and will always be higher than this value). The IPCC is abundantly clear on this point.

4. The IPCC never uses or presents these values to project global temperatures in the first decade of the 21st century.

In his most recent figures from July 2010, Monckton has decided to address the fact that warming to equilibrium temperatures by 2100 is clearly wrong (fundamental problem #3). He does this by simply reducing equilibrium temperatures by one-fifth (or multiplying by 0.8) to convert to "transient warming", although it is unclear where he gets this conversion factor from. He has applied these changes to his "prediction zone" on the graph, but he has not changed the legend of the figure which still lists the incorrect equilibrium values after "IPCC predicts warming."

I was able to recreate Monckton’s July 2010 figure from scratch by plotting monthly temperatures as the average of the UAH and RSS satellite temperature values, and adjusting them like Monckton so that "the anomalies are zeroed to the least element in the dataset." I then plotted Monckton’s "transient" prediction zone using 3 lines with linear increases of 2.4 × 0.8 = 1.92 C/century, 3.9 × 0.8 = 3.12 C/century, and 5.3 × 0.8 = 4.24 C/century. I then zeroed the prediction zone "to the start-point of the least-squares linear-regression trend on the real-world data." Here is the result:

Figure 1: My reproduction and overlay of Monckton’s figure from his July 2010 SPPI report. (top) Monkton’s original figure; (middle) my reproduction; (bottom) overlay of the two. If anything, Monckton’s projection zones are slightly above the "transient" linear increases of 1.92 C/century, 3.12 C/century, and 4.24 C/century.

His prediction zones match up virtually perfectly to linear increases in temperature out to 2100 (highlighting fundamental problem #2). We can then extend these out to 2100 and examine whether Monckton’s warming rates in degrees per century match up with the actual IPCC projections:

Figure 2: Extensions of the "transient" linear warming paths from Figure 1, superimposed on the IPCC’s actual A2 temperature projection. Prediction zones were zeroed to the start of the Jan 2001 to July 2010 regression line of the UAH and RSS monthly average, using the base period of 1980-1999 to match the IPCC figure’s base period.

Monckton’s new transient warming zone aligns with the actual IPCC A2 projections quite well by 2100. However the problem with a linear temperature prediction is apparent (again, fundamental problem #2): Monckton’s transient warming path entirely excludes the bottom half of the IPCC projections until after 2030.

So as of his July 2010 report, Monckton’s prediction zones may have some relevance to temperatures at the end of the century (although they still suffer from fundamental problems #1 and #4 no matter what). However, they remain both inappropriate (fundamental problem #2) and deceptive (fundamental problems #1 and #4), when used for comparisons with recent observed temperatures. All of the prediction zones on his figures prior to July 2010 – including those shown in testimony to congress – suffer from all four fundamental problems. Just to highlight what a substantial issue fundamental problem #3 is, let’s examine the linear increase to 2100 based off of equilibrium warming:

Figure 3: The same as Figure 2, but using equilibrium linear warming paths.

Until Lord Monckton starts using the actual IPCC temperature projections and stops using climate sensitivity equations to "predict" temperatures from 2001 to 2010, his figures will be fundamentally flawed and unattributable to the IPCC.

- What about Monckton's CO2 predictions? -

Although, the primary topic here is Monckton’s "IPCC" temperature predictions, his "IPCC" CO2 predictions are also completely at odds with what is actually presented in the IPCC. Barry Bickmore from Brigham Young University has done an excellent bit of detective work to help elucidate the matter (see his RealClimate post here).

Dr. Bickmore compared Monckton’s "IPCC A2" CO2 values to the actual IPCC A2 CO2 values and found that, other than the start and end points, Monckton’s values are always higher. There is absolutely no justification for this. I’ve reproduced the same result by carefully scaling and overlaying Monckton’s graph onto the IPCC’s figure 10.20a (here’s an uncropped larger version):

Figure 4: Lord Monckton’s graph of the "IPCC’s predicted CO2" trend superimposed on the actual CO2 concentration trend from the IPCC’s figure 10.20a. Monckton’s "IPCC prediction" is clearly higher than the actual IPCC trend (which follows the observed values quite well).

- Additional figures -

Figure 5: The actual IPCC A2 temperature projection range (3-year running means) with observed global temperatures from the 5 major temperature analyses (36-month running means through June 2010).

Figure 6: Monckton’s "IPCC" temperature prediction from his July 2010 SPPI report compared to the actual IPCC A2 temperature projections.

Last updated on 13 September 2010 by Alden Griffith.

Printable Version  |  Offline PDF Version  |  Link to this page

Notes from Alden Griffith

NOTE: this was originally posted by Alden Griffith at Fool Me Once as a video presentation. His notes also included the following notes:

- How did I digitize the IPCC A2 model projections? -

Because the figures in the IPCC's reports are largely vector graphics, it is possible to zoom in for great detail. I used Acrobat to copy individual lines as separate objects so that they could be digitized without overlapping. Once I had separately extracted all 17 lines, I digitized them into XY values by using GetData Graph Digitizer to trace each line at high resolution. I then used Matlab to interpolate the curves so that I could get values at the midpoint of each year as shown on the IPCC's figure.

- Additional resources -

John Abraham examines Lord Monckton’s many claims

Barry Bickmore investigates Monckton’s "IPCC" CO2 and temperature predictions
(see his own blog too)

Tim Lambert on Monckton’s 2010 testimony to Congress

- Special thanks to Jay Turner for his helpful comments and suggestions -

Comments

Comments 1 to 12:

  1. Wow! This SkS rebuttal topic really needs to be separated into Basic and Intermediate tabs! I am drowning in data. My quick reaction:

    1. Too specific - replies only to Monckton's claim.
    2. Too detailed - the uninitiated reader drowns.
    3. Is it up-to-date? (No comments since Sep 2010?)

    What led me here was a perusal of that trouble-maker website Watts Up With That entry "The Skeptics Case".
    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/02/26/the-skeptics-case/

    WUWT's article starts with very easy-to-understand color diagrams and follows up with graphs of IPCC temperature predictions vs. "measured temperatures".

    Does Skeptical Science have a rebuttal for this? Is this topic where the rebuttal should be?
  2. The WUWT "Skeptics Case" is written by Dr David M.W. Evans. It vividly compares "Predicted to actually measured" in Figure 3. But is that a fair summary?

    The Evans article is targeted to non-experts (like me), is well-written and has great graphics. Everything in it may be wrong or misleading, but it tells a convincing story.
  3. Tom - if you're specifically looking for comparisons between model temperature projections vs. observations (including by the IPCC), see the Lessons from Past Predictions series.

    As a general rule, if you see colorful easy-to-understand graphs on WUWT, you can bet the folks creating that graph have screwed up somehow. Evans for example cherrypicks data horribly, comparing surface temperature projections to atmospheric temperature measurements, and only looks at a few years of ocean heat content, and only of the shallow oceans, etc. etc.
  4. You're right that this rebuttal really should be updated though. I'll have to put that on my to-do list.
  5. I am slugging my way thru Alden Griffith's article & see the problem: It reads like a research paper. It is not a rebuttal for the benefit of the general public.

    While Griffith's work may be first-rate (I'm not qualified to judge), it doesn't seem to fit into the "mission" of Skeptical Science. Wouldn't one expect an overview that links off to a paper like this?

    Figure 4 has potential for mass-audiences, although it is very "busy". Hard to read the axes, and that thick red line at the bottom is confusing.
  6. Tom - sunlight reaching the Earth's surface dimmed during the period 2000-2007, yet the Earth continued to warm, albeit at a slower rate than the 1990's. More recent observations are not available, but the "global dimming" evident over this period, does partially explain the slowing of ocean heat uptake during 2003-2008 - especially as the dimming was principally a Southern Hemisphere phenomenon.

    The climate model projections which Evans "disses" do not factor in the global dimming trend through 2000-2007. A model hindcast using the actual surface solar radiation measurements to constrain it, would no doubt see a much closer agreement with the surface temperature measurements.

    In short; we would have expected a slowing in the rate of warming over that period.

    This is dealt with in upcoming posts, and rebuttals will be updated accordingly.
  7. Dana, I don't doubt for a second that WUWT and World Climate Report (WCR) publish flawed science and distort findings. That was obvious within a half-hour of browsing for even a relative amateur like myself.

    I'd like to see SkS Basic tabs effectively counter those pretty graphs and easy-to-understand slick words from WUWT and WCR that are quoted endlessly by Fox News and WSJ editorials. That may mean simplifying the Basic tabs and moving more precise stuff to Intermediate and Expert tabs.

    Rob Painting - Thanks! I'll be looking forward to the upcoming posts and rebuttals.
  8. Just out of curiosity, how do you "adjust" the IPCC's predictions to reflect observed GHG forcings? Because it seems as though there's a big difference between doing that (which results in the images shown above) and not doing it (which results in images like the one below). This graph shows the IPCC's supposed

    In other words, what's wrong with this picture?

    Also, I hate to sound like a broken record (as I said this about the "Southern sea ice is increasing" page too), but I don't see why we need both this page and the one called "IPCC global warming projections were wrong," as they both seem to cover the same topic.

    Response:

    [Dikran Marsupial] Please can you limit your images to no more than 500 pixels wide.  I have made the adjustment this time.

  9. jsmith, the image you have shown there is not actually "unadjusted".  The model projections used in the 1990 IPCC report do not all agree exactly on the temperature in 1990, and they definitely didn't predict the observations exactly either.  The thing that is wrong with the picture is that they have used a baseline of year (whci happened to be a peak in the observations), rather than the proper procedure of a 30 year baseline.  The problem with a single year baseline is that you can make it give any result you want, you can make it look like the models over-predict temperatures by baselining to a warm year, or you can make them look as if they are running cooler by baselining to a cold year.  Sadly this sort of thing is done all the time, but that doesn't mean that it is correct - far from it.

  10. Here is an example of what I mean (vai woodfortrees.org):

    Here I've shown the HADCRUT4 datase, along with two lines representing completely accurate representations of the rate of warming, but only differing in the vertical offset introduced by the choice of baseline year. 

    The green line represents a "skeptics" presentation, where the observations and projection were baselined to a peak in the observations so that the observations are then generally below the projection.  "IPCC models over predict warming" is the headline.

    The blue line represents an "alarmist" presentation, where the observations and projections were baselined to a trough in the observations, so that the observations are generally higher than the projection.  "IPCC models underpredict warming" is the headline.

    The magenta line represents the scientific presentation (in this case it is just the OLS trend line), where the offset hasn't been cherry picked to support the desired argument.

  11. Just to further clarify DM...

    You can't do this (red circle):

    That is a single year, cherry picked, baseline. It's something you see Chris Monckton constantly doing in his presentations.

  12. BTW a later article by Monckton (2012) does another odd thing with IPCC projections, based purely on arithmetic.  The final comment there is mine and intended to be read side-by-side with the article.  It took some time to work out what Monckton was doing, which was back-projecting the same figures from the projections to obtain estimates for warming in 1960-2008, first assuming the CO₂-temp relationship was logarithmic, secondly that it was linear.  Unsurprisingly he finds a discrepancy between those two results, but he assumes that is a flaw in the models (!).

    I didn't start from an ad hominem premise, but can't help trying to understand what was driving Monckton in that article.  In the Meet the Sceptics (2011) documentary, he claims to have cured himself of Graves' disease.  As I understand it, mental confusion is an occasional symptom of hyperthyroidism.  I don't mean that gives additional reason to dismiss his varied claims, but it might invite a more sympathetic response.

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